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Reviewing Recent Pre-Combine Mock Drafts

25 Friday Feb 2022

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As you know, we look at the work of seven established draft services periodically over the year leading to draft weekend, and we’ve done this since the 2018 NFL Draft. Today, we posted our usual pre-combine mock draft snapshot, and I thought it would be fun to see how close the mock drafters got to reality on some of their pre-combine projections over the last three years. Here’s what I found.

  • Unlike many previous drafts, there’s a lot of solidarity on who the first-rounders are this year, especially this early. Twenty players are rated as Day 1 picks by all seven services. By way of comparison, at this stage, there were 17 last year (only Notre Dame OB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah fell to Day 2), just 15 in 2020 (all 15 went in the first 32 picks) and 16 in 2019 (Florida OT Jawaan Taylor, LSU DC Greedy Williams, Florida DE Jachai Polite and Washington DC Byron Murphy all fell to Day 2).
  • At this stage in 2021, all seven draft services correctly predicted that Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence would be the top pick (duh). The same was true in 2020 (LSU’s Joe Burrow), another year when there was a clear blue-chip QB prospect. However, in 2019, the draft services said Ohio State DE Nick Bosa would be the top pick (six of seven services had him at No. 1), and the only outlier, PFN’s Tony Pauline, had Alabama DT Quinnen Williams first overall. As you know, Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray ultimately went first; at the time, however, he was No. 14 on average. Matt Miller, then with Bleacher Report, had him highest at No. 7, while Sports Illustrated was least-sold on Murray at the time, placing him at 27. 
  • The players that narrowly missed being unanimous first-rounders mostly wound up in the first round anyway — in 2021. Last year, Georgia OB Azeez Ojulari, Northwestern OT Rashawn Slater, USC OG Alijah Vera-Tucker and Miami (FL) DE Jaelan Phillips were on just six boards, but only Ojulari got snubbed. However, lack of unanimity was telling in 2020. That year, the just-missed group included LSU DC Kristian Fulton, Iowa DE A.J. Epenesa, Louisville OT Mekhi Becton, Clemson WO Tee Higgins, Alabama WO Henry Ruggs and LSU DE K’Lavon Chaisson. Fulton, Epenesa and Higgins all had to wait ’til Friday to hear their names called.
  • Hats off to ESPN’s Todd McShay and The Draft Scout’s Miller who each had Washington DE Joe Tryon at the end of the first round entering the draft last year; he wound up going No. 32 to Tampa Bay. In 2020, only Pro Football Network’s Tony Pauline had Ohio St. DC Damon Arnette in the first round at this stage; Pauline slotted him at 25, very close to his selection at 19 by the Raiders. Kudos also go out to McShay for being the only prognosticator to have Auburn DC Noah Igbinoghene in the first 32 (he went No. 30 to the Dolphins), and Walter Football for placing TCU WO Jalen Reagor at 22, the only service to have him on Day 1. He went 21 to the Eagles. Walter also nailed Mississippi St. FS Jonathan Abram with a direct hit in the first round in 2019; no other service had Abram on Day 1, but he went 27 to the Raiders. 

We’ve got plenty more to say about what the draft services say about this year’s draft. Join us for today’s Friday Wrap, which comes out at 7:30 p.m. ET, to dig into the first 32 projected picks even more. If you haven’t already, register for the Wrap here. You can also check out the entire grid featuring all seven services and their picks for the first round pre-combine at the mother ship.

Mock Draft Philosophy: An Interview with The Athletic’s Ben Standig

06 Friday Mar 2020

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If you follow this blog, you know our 11th annual seminar, the TEST Football Academy ITL Combine Seminar, was last week. This year, we took a slightly different tack and handed out several awards in an effort to recognize excellence in the football industry.

One of those awards went to The Athletic’s Ben Standig, who won The Huddle Report’s mock draft contest for 2019. Mock drafts have simultaneously fascinated and vexed me for a long time. On one hand, they’re easy bait for clicks and follows, thoroughly enticing to fans (and therefore not for serious members of the football business community), and for the most part, no one ever reviews the work of the top names in the business. On the other hand, they’re undeniably fun, and some people (like Ben) are quite good at it.

Curious as to his methodology, I asked if he’d discuss his philosophy and strategy, and he was kind enough to discuss his mock draft aptitude with me this afternoon. Here are my questions and his answers.

As you complete your mock drafts, what is your ratio of talking to teams and getting a feel for what they’re gonna do vs. your own assessment of players and team needs? 

“Well, the first time I won the contest, it was 100 percent (my own study and assessment of team needs). I was the typical writer trying to figure this out. It’s still probably 80 percent me, and the other part is, when I do talk to teams, throwing out ideas (to them) and asking, what do you think? I don’t break down a ton of tape, but what I try to do is, figure out what are the teams looking for, what are the strengths and weaknesses in the class, and where does it make sense for a team to address their top needs vs. where can they wait and find that in later rounds.”

How much of your work is reading teams, trying to decide their draft-day patterns, and  predicting their selections based on previous philosophy and strategy?

“Sometimes there is that for sure, but there’s so much turnover. I mean, the team I cover (the Redskins) just changed their whole situation, and two other teams in their division changed head coaches. But yeah, there is something to be said for that. For example, with regards to the Redskins, I think I did 20 mocks last year. In the first 19, I had defensive players picked every single time, and then at the end, when I decided (Ohio State QB) Dwayne Haskins would be there, I thought, the owner would say, ‘let’s go with Haskins,’ and that’s what happened.”

What is your mix of your own analysis of players vs. what you think a team is gonna do?

“I would probably say my good fortune in these mocks is such a bizarre thing, but I often check my personal ego at the door. I never say, this player is better than another player, so I’m gonna put him ahead. I try to read the room. Just because I think Player X is better than Player Y, I’m not gonna go the other way (if I feel teams disagree). It’s reading of the room.”

I think one of the criticisms of mock drafts and the people who create them is that there is so much mimicry and outright stealing from others. How much do you look at others as you compose your mock drafts? 

“I certainly look. The reality is, there are people on the NFL Network and ESPN who are talking to way more people than I do. I have sources, but so do other people. They’re probably not overlapping, so it’s interesting to see what other people are saying, and what’s being thrown out there that doesn’t make sense and what does. I then run it all through my own filter, and this is gonna sound insane, but I kinda equate it to that scene in A Beautiful Mind when the numbers all seem to float around and then out to (the protagonist). He sees the puzzle. When I’m putting the pieces of the puzzle together, some things just seem to make sense. I can’t explain why. I had (Notre Dame DT) Jerry Tillery to the Chargers all 20 times I did a mock last year, and I can’t explain why, and then it happened. A lot of it is instinct.”

When the draft is about to start, do you usually think, OK, I got this? Or is there almost a sense of dread because something could happen and make you feel like you have no idea of what’s next?

“I have no idea (on draft day). Just one thing could change it. This year, I think everyone feels good about Burrow and Young 1-2, but if there’s a trade at 3, does the next team take (Ohio State’s Jeff) Okudah or (Alabama’s) Tua Tagovailoa? If Detroit were to trade up to 3 and take (Clemson’s Isaiah) Simmons or Tua, it doesn’t affect one pick, it affects several. You’re always one pick away from disaster. After the top 10, there’s much more randomness. I never feel great about these things.”

If you look at most mock drafts, the top 10 or so picks are very similar. It’s when you get into the back half of the first round that it gets tough. How are you able to have success in picks 16-32?

“I typically do two-round mock drafts; I leave it to others to go seven rounds. But two rounds is helpful because it gives me a feel for what are the strengths and weaknesses of the class. For example, for this draft class, in a normal year, (Alabama’s) Jerry Jeudy or (Oklahoma’s) CeeDee Lamb are locked into the top 10. But this year, because there are so many receivers, it feels like they’re gonna fall a little bit, maybe outside the top 10, because teams know they can get receivers down the line. If you want a pass rusher, there really aren’t that many past Chase Young. (LSU’s) K’Lavon Chaisson may be the next one, so if you want one of them, you might have to jump up earlier than you want. You just have to stay on top of the teams as much as possible. Once free agency starts, that will help a lot, too.”

Teams always pride themselves on taking the “best player available.” From your observations, is that true? 

“I’m always of the belief that it’s the best player available at a team’s position of need. If the best player available is a QB and you have Aaron Rodgers, are you gonna take a QB? I think that’s too dogmatic. I don’t think that makes logical sense, though there are some circumstances where that might change. To use the Redskins, you’d probably say their biggest strength is their defensive line, but they’re probably gonna take a defensive lineman because Chase Young is that good. It makes sense, he will help the team, but there are way many other positions they need besides defensive line. But he’s so good that to take another player would be a reach.”

Read more about our big night in Indianapolis, Ben’s acceptance of our award, and plenty of other good stuff about the football business in today’s Friday Wrap, which comes out this evening. You can register for it here.

A Midseason Look at Six Mock Drafts for the ’20 NFL Draft

04 Friday Oct 2019

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If you read this blog regularly, or you keep up on our Friday Wrap, you know we like to keep tabs on the major draft prognosticators just to see which ones are more willing to break from the pack, which ones pick up on the hottest prospects earliest, and which ones are most volatile from month to month.

For two-plus years, we’ve surveyed seven services, monitoring them from immediately post-draft all the way through the following draft. It’s always fun to see how the boards change as the season winds toward draft time.

Now that we’re almost halfway through the college season, we thought now would be a good time to take our second look at the seven services (Pro Football Network/Tony Pauline; Pro Football Focus; Sports Illustrated; Bleacher Report/Matt Miller; ESPN/Todd McShay; The Athletic/Dane Brugler; and Walter Football). We previously reviewed their work on July 16 (sorry, pay link).

We have several observations in today’s Friday Wrap, which comes out at 6:30 p.m. CT. In the meantime, here are a few things we found interesting:

Passing thoughts: Utah State’s Jordan Love was seen as a sneaky pick for the first round this summer, though he was only listed on one of the seven boards (Pauline at No. 8); we don’t know how Pauline feels these days, but Love is No. 10 in the eyes of Brugler and No. 29 according to Brugler. Then there’s Washington’s Jacob Eason and LSU’s Joe Burrow. Eason has gone from no boards to three boards in six weeks, with Walter Football listing him at No. 17 over Love, Burrow and Georgia’s Jake Fromm. Meanwhile, Burrow, despite garnering serious Heisman mentions, is mostly persona non grata. Miller likes him at No. 21, while Pro Football Focus slides him in at No. 32. They are the only two services that see him in the first round, but at least he’s not Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts. Like the last two No. 1 overall picks, Hurts is Oklahoma’s starter, a transfer, and a serious Heisman contender, but that’s still not good enough to rate a spot in the top 32 for any of the six services.

Catch the fever: Based on the draft services, it’s going to be a great year to need a wide receiver. Not only were there more receivers than any other position that garnered first-round grades from all six services, but two others (Alabama’s Henry Ruggs III and Clemson’s Tee Higgins) made five out of six boards; Walter Football snubbed both of them. Also, TCU’s Jalen Reagor was on four of six boards.

That’s a stretch: Among the 13 players who made all six boards, the biggest difference of opinion was on Iowa DE A.J. Epenesa as Miller listed him at No. 3, but  McShay only saw him as No. 25. Also, Walter Football tabbed Herbert as the No. 2 pick, but Miller saw him as only the No. 22 selection. Finally, there’s Georgia OT Andrew Thomas; Walter has him at No. 3, but McShay sees him as only the No. 19 pick.

Want more? Make sure to register for our Friday Wrap, which you can do here. You can also check out the entire draft grid — and a whole lot more — by joining us at ITL.

Who’s the Master of the Mock Draft? Talking to Drew Boylhart of The Huddle Report

25 Friday May 2018

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Today in our Friday Wrap (you can register for it here), we talk to Drew Boylhart of The Huddle Report. Drew and the site’s founder, Rob Esch, do an incredible job of tracking the accuracy of mock drafts and Top 100 lists across the web every year.

In our newsletter, which will be out in less than three hours, we talk to Drew about how the site got started, how the rankings are set up, and who really rocks at predicting who’s going where. As for the Top 100 lists, Boylhart said Bob McGinn, a veteran of Wisconsin newspapers who launched his own site in 2017, excels.

“This year, Bob McGinn got 86,” Boylhart said. “He’s won it three times, and has an 82.8 average. He was in the 13th spot this year with his five-year average, and was in the top five with his board this year. He’s won it the most, three times. He’s able to call contacts and get names. McGinn has a tremendous amount of contacts and he can call them up and get into, just like Gosselin.

“Rob has had lunch a couple times with (Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News, who also excels at predicting picks and players), and McGinn is the same way. They really are interested in what they’re doing and they interact with scouts and GMs, and they keep secrets so they can interact with them.”

Though some are better than others, Boylhart said there’s a fair amount of randomness to the mock draft process.

“Rob himself won it one year,” he said. “It’s like the lottery. Anyone can win. You don’t have to be in the system to win. My 94-year-old mother could win.

“Evan Silva (of Rotoworld) did the best this year. 10 matches, which is highly unusual. He got 28 of 32 players in the first round. He did a really good job this year. But many, many times, you’ll do great one year and bottom of the barrel next year. It’s a real crapshoot.”

Tracking consistency has become difficult because so many sites don’t last long.

“The funny thing about them is, these sites go in and out so fast,” said Boylhart, 66. “These guys are dropping off like crazy. Seems like every 3-5 years, they’ll start a site, and most of these guys are kids, and they think an NFL team is gonna notice them, and their friend who went to college with them is an intern someplace, but they get discouraged after five years.

“It’s a lot of work. Most of them have jobs and want to be successful at their jobs, and after three years, its’ not fun.”

He said it’s also hard dealing with the abuse, particularly on Twitter.

“I can’t tell you the stuff they say to me,” said Boylhart of the controversy his profiles have generated. “I had one person tell me I should have been pulled from the womb of my mother because he didn’t like the profile I did. I had a parent call me at midnight, drunk as a skunk. Twitter is a beast. The stuff they say on Twitter, it’s incredible.”

Boylhart said the key to The Huddle Report’s longevity is that he and his partner take things in stride.

“We’re entertainment,” he said. “I have no agenda, I don’t think I’m gonna be hired by a team. I don’t break down film, and I’m not gonna suggest I’m a scout. I’m probably the furthest thing from a scout. I’m a profiler. I try to profile players on whether they’re gonna be successful or not.”

For more from Drew, make sure you register for our newsletter here.

Reviewing Some Top 2018 Mock Drafts with One Week to Go

20 Friday Apr 2018

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As you know, last month, we took a look at seven reputable draft services — Tony Pauline of Draft Expert; Pro Football Focus’ Steve Palazzolo; NFL Draft Scout’s Dane Brugler; Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller; ESPN’s Todd McShay (this month’s mock is behind the pay wall); Chris Burke, then of Sports Illustrated, now of The Athletic (sorry, it’s behind the pay wall, though their rate is pretty affordable); and Charlie Campbell of Walter Football — and compared their mock drafts published in May 2017 with their updated mocks in March.

It wasn’t a straight apples-to-apples comparison, as some writers moved around and some services combined prognosticators’ picks into one mock, but we did the best we could. As you can imagine, there were plenty of changes over 10 months.

With one week to go until the ’18 draft (actually, less than a week), we thought we’d take one last look before things get real. Here’s what we found.

  • Last May, 11 players were listed in the first round by all seven services. This month, predictably, things have tightened: 20 players are now across-the-board first-rounders.
  • In the last month, the number of players rated as first-rounders by at least one service has dropped from 56 to 49.
  • Remarkably, five of the seven services see Georgia OB Roquan Smith as the No. 10 pick in the draft. The other two, The Athletic and Walter Football, have him as the 11th pick.
  •  After Smith, the three players with the greatest consensus in one place, all by virtue of four services, are USC QB Sam Darnold, the top pick in four mock drafts; Alabama WO Calvin Ridley, who goes No. 19; and UTEP OG Will Hernandez, who’s No. 30.
  • Florida State DC Tarvarus McFadden is Exhibit A of the fickle nature of the draft process. In May, he was rated as a first-rounder by all seven services, one of just 11 player so rated. This month, no one has him in the first round.
  • LSU DE Arden Key is Exhibit B. In May 2017, he was a first-rounder on all seven boards with an average selection at No. 6. As of this month, only one service, The Athletic, has him going in the top 32, and just barely (31).
  • Speaking of LSU, Derrius Guice was a first-rounder in the eyes of six services last May. Today, the running back is first round in the eyes of just two services, Draft Analyst (Tony Pauline) and NFL Draft Scout (Dane Brugler), and No. 32 for both.
  • Pauline was the only prognosticator to have Iowa IB Josey Jewell in his first round last May, and he stuck to his guns last month, but he’s removed him from the top 32 as of this month.

We’ll have more analysis in today’s Friday Wrap, which comes out this evening. If you’re into the draft — and I figure you are — you won’t want to miss our further breakdown of the services and who they like. As always, the Friday Wrap is free and is read by people across the industry, and you can register for it here.

Catching Up With Seven Draft Services’ Post-Combine Mocks

10 Friday Apr 2020

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Early in March, we started tracking the post-combine mock drafts of the seven services we’ve been following for two years now. Then the coronavirus happened, and all our efforts went into trying to fill the pro day gap.

This week, we’re trotting our grid back out, dusting it off and giving it a look. Next week, we’ll look at the last round of mocks (by the same services) for the last time before NFL teams do it for real the last weekend of the month.

Here’s what we found in this month’s mocks.

  • This is something we’ll be watching more closely going forward, but one trend we detected was a great level of similarity between mock drafts (OK, we weren’t surprised that much, either, but still). Every one of the seven services we surveyed in their first mock draft of March had LSU’s Joe Burrow No. 1 overall. Six of seven had Ohio State’s Chase Young at No. 2 (hello, PFF). Four other players received the same top-10 grades from at least four of the services, including Clemson’s Isaiah Simmons (Tony Pauline, Matt Miller of Bleacher Report, ESPN’s Todd McShay and Sports Illustrated all at No. 4); Auburn’s Derrick Brown (Pauline, Miller, McShay and Walter Football have him at No. 7); Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs (Pauline, PFF, Brugler and Sports Illustrated at 8); and Alabama’s Jedrick Wills (No. 10 according to Pauline, PFF, Brugler and McShay).
  • Georgia’s Andrew Thomas at 11 (Pauline, PFF, Brugler, Miller and Walter); Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy at 12 (according to PFF, Miller, Sports Illustrated and Walter); Alabama’s Henry Ruggs III at 15 (PFF, Brugler, McShay and Walter) have also drawn some sort of consensus.
  • For what it’s worth, three services have been on the “Burrow is No. 1” express since October: PFF, Sports Illustrated and Walter. McShay was one of the early adopters, too, but got off the train in December (Young) before re-boarding pre-combine.
  • If you’re looking for a draft expert who most closely resembles an analytics model, look to Brugler, who has 12 picks (1, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 15, 19, 22 and 29) in common with Pro Football Focus. I should note that there was a pretty major “clustering” among the draft experts post-combine, and I presume that if I reviewed last year’s totals, we’d see the same thing.
  • Overall, we saw a “narrowing” of the board among the seven services, with 20 players on all seven services’ top 32. Just missing were Alabama FS Xavier McKinney (snubbed only by Pauline) and Oklahoma OB Kenneth Murray (not rated by McShay).
  • Also, only three players (Wisconsin OB Zach Baun and OC Tyler Biadasz; Oregon OG Shane Lemieux; Alabama DT Raekwon Davis; Dugger and Gallimore) were on only one board. Baun was 30 by Brugler; Biadasz 31 and Lemieux 27 per Walter Football; Pauline listed Davis at 23; Dugger was 28 on the PFF mock; and Gallimore was 25 according to Sports Illustrated).
  • New entries to mock drafts were Clemson DC A.J. Terrell (No. 20 according to Miller, 27 for PFF, 32 for Brugler); Boise St. OT Ezra Cleveland (No. 29 per PFF and Brugler, 31 on Pauline’s board); Lenoir-Rhyne SS Kyle Dugger (No. 28 according to PFF) and Oklahoma DT Neville Gallimore (No. 25 to Sports Illustrated).

We’ve given the services a more extensive look in today’s Friday Wrap, which comes out this evening (6:30 p.m. CT). As always, you can register for it here.

Looking at the 2019 NFL Draft Mocks: A Few Observations

15 Friday Feb 2019

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As we roll toward the 2019 NFL Scouting Combine — now less than two weeks away! —  we thought it was time to take a look at what the biggest voices in #DraftTwitter are saying about the first round, which is a little more than two months away.

It’s the third time we’ve checked out draft experts’ picks heading into the 2019 selection meeting. Our first look was published in our Friday Wrap in July, followed by an update just before Thanksgiving, also posted in our weekly Friday Wrap. Here’s a look at the complete composite grid from July (sorry, it’s a pay link), and here’s the grid from November.

As usual, we surveyed seven major draft experts, all of them (except one) posted in the first or second week of February: Tony Pauline at Draft Analyst (Feb. 4); Pro Football Focus (we used their most recent mock, written Feb. 5 by Mike Renner, though normally we use Steve Palazzolo’s work); Dane Brugler at The Athletic (Feb. 5); Mike Miller at Bleacher Report (Feb. 4); ESPN’s Todd McShay (Feb. 7); Sports Illustrated (normally we use Albert Breer, though their most recent work was published Jan. 29 by Kalyn Kahler); and Walter Football (Feb. 13).

Obviously, surveying Draft Twitter doesn’t give you specific answers about who’s going where, but it’s an interesting look not only at the top players as the media sees them rising and falling, but it’s also fascinating to look at the various experts and see who’s most accurate and which ones are willing to go farthest out on a limb.

Anyway, based on our grid, a few thoughts.

  • It’s interesting how little the field of possible first-rounders has shrunk since November, while at the same time seeing a number of players dropped and picked up simultaneously.
  • For example, at least one of the seven services rated 55 players as first-rounders in November, while today, it’s just 52 players. On the other hand, 15 players who got first-round acclaim last fall — Stanford WO J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Wisconsin OC Tyler Bladasz, Auburn DT Derrick Brown, Notre Dame IB Te’Von Coney, Alabama DE Raekwon Davis, Auburn DC Jamel Dean, Alabama DC Trevon Diggs, West Virginia QB Will Grier, Oregon QB Justin Herbert, Oregon OB Jalen Jelks, Buffalo WO Anthony Johnson, Missouri TE Albert Okwuegbunam, Texas A&M TE Jace Sternberger, Georgia OB D’Andre Walker and Michigan DE Chase Winovich — no longer show up in any of the seven mocks. Of course, Bladasz, Brown, Davis, Diggs, Herbert and Okwuegbunam all stayed in school, but apparently the needle is pointing down for the other seven.
  • Among the 12 players they claim now look like first-rounders are Delaware DC Nasir Adderley, West Virginia OT Yodny Cajuste, Washington St. OT Andre Dillard, Louisiana Tech DE Jaylon Ferguson, Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson, Alabama OH Josh Jacobs, Mississippi WO D.K. Metcalf, Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray, South Carolina WO Deebo Samuel, Vanderbilt DC Joejuan Williams, Miami (FL) DT Gerald Willis and Old Dominion DE Oshane Ximines.
  • There’s not a lot of variation on the first-round quarterbacks. All seven services see Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins as a first-rounder and the first QB off the board, and all agree that Murray is a first-rounder, though Sports Illustrated sees him going at No. 27 and Matt Miller at Bleacher Report has him going highest (No. 7). Only ESPN’s Todd McShay sees neither Duke’s Daniel Jones or Missouri’s Drew Lock as a first-rounder.

We’ll have plenty more in today’s Friday Wrap. If you read our blog, you should read our Wrap, as well. Go here to register.

Touching Down on the NFL Draft Process: Six Points for Prospects

24 Friday Dec 2021

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This time of year, I get a handful of members of the current NFL Draft Class who are referred to me, and they have questions about the entire process. It’s for this reason that I wrote my first book, but most want bullet points.

Well, today, I have six. If you or your son have questions about the process, maybe the following will help.

  • Regarding NFL Combine selection, the short story is, NFS (National Football Scouting) conducts a player-by-player vote of about 1,000-2,000 players, and the top 350-odd players by vote get an invite. They are disproportionately from FBS, obviously. If a player has a record-setting bowl game, it might tilt things in his way a bit. However, for the most part, the odds of getting an invite are equal parts raw athleticism, college production, and measurables. For example, if you are a four-year 1,000-yard receiver at an FBS school, but you’re 5-8/180/4.6, the odds will be against you. To a great degree, the NFL Draft is a beauty pageant. For the most part, NFL teams are looking for difference-makers, not good football players. They are seeking freakish athletic talents they can craft into stars (perhaps). This is why so many good college football players without eye-popping athletic skills go undrafted.
  • As far as all-star play, the organizers of these bowls select the players, though agents can have a major impact on who gets invited. After the Senior Bowl and, to some degree, the Shrine Bowl, the remaining games are excellent platforms which will be populated largely by fringe draft prospects who will be late-rounders or UDFAs (or who won’t go to camps). As far as how these games are populated, there is a “domino” process among the games whereby a player at the top game (SR) declines an invitation, and that player is replaced by a lower game, and that continues on down the line. In my opinion, there is a limited difference between the first player drafted in the fourth round and most UDFAs, and a good all-star game can move a player up in that Day 3 crop. At the same time, an all-star game won’t get a player from the seventh to the first round. No way, no how.
  • When it comes to selecting an agent, the most important factor should be (a) a player’s personal relationship with the agent and (b) the agent’s experience level. During the vetting process, players should ask in-depth questions about how the agent has handled players, when he was fired and why, how he can make a difference for the player, what the agent’s plan is for the next four months, etc. The player should ask if he’s ever represented anyone like himself and how that player turned out. The player should ask the agent why he wants to represent him. Money should be a low-level consideration, though if a player asks his agent to cover training, etc., he should pay three percent. Fee cuts are for first-rounders. Also, Day 3 prospects (especially) should forget about marketing. They need someone who will clear away all obstacles for them to make a 53-man roster.
  • When choosing a trainer, players should make sure they choose a place that cares about them and that will comprehensively train them for speed, but also drills.
  • The post-pro day period will be the longest time of a draft prospect’s life. Players should discuss the post-draft plan with their agents as part of your selection process.
  • I know draft prospects are desperate to hear what scouts think about them, and I know it’s hard to resist the pull of the Internet, but a player only knows how all 32 teams feel about him if he goes undrafted. If a player is drafted, he really only knows how the team that drafted him thinks. Unless you continually see your name in first-round mock drafts, it’s best to presume that you are somewhere in that Day 3 mix, and every day you train, you’re trying to move up that list just a little bit. 

Still have questions? Sign up for our Friday Wrap newsletter, in which we talk about all things NFL draft and the business of the game each week. Merry Christmas!

2021 NFL Draft: What’s the Market Package for a Player Opting Out?

02 Wednesday Sep 2020

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I’m getting a lot of questions about how much to spend on players who choose to opt out of the 2020 fall football season. Rather than answer every question individually, I thought I’d break it all out in a blog post.

Understand that these are best guesses based on what I’ve heard of the packages so far. These numbers are liable to move as more and more opt out and the market comes to balance.

First half of first round (1-20): Based on what scouts have told me, these are the players that probably can safely opt out. That means their market probably doesn’t slide much.

  • Estimated stipend/marketing guarantee and per diem: Depending on how close they are to No. 1, you’re looking at $7,000-$8,000 per month through the draft and a marketing guarantee that’s in the $150,000-$300,000 range.
  • Also: Training of player’s choice (probably about $30,000 all in, maybe $10,000 higher if he starts training now), rental car, housing, etc.

Late first to early second (21-50): These are the names you’re seeing populate multiple mock drafts in the 15-32 range. Some of these players will slide, but they seem safe to fall no farther than the end of Day 2.

  • Estimated stipend/marketing guarantee and per diem: I’ve heard of some hefty marketing guarantees for players in this range already, but it’s risky. I’d say you’re safest in the $50,000-$30,000 range. As far as stipend, probably around $5,000/month through the draft should get it done.
  • Also: Same as above on training and other amenities.

Late second to end of third: This is a tricky area, because players will think they can opt out and maybe slide into first-round territory, when really they’re in danger of sliding into Day 3. If you’re an agent, that’s not an easy message to convey.

  • Estimated stipend/marketing guarantee and per diem: You’re in trouble if you overpay on per diem for eight months here. My guess is you want to stay in the same range that you would have paid for four months ($20,000-$25,000), but spread it over eight. You probably want to stay south of $4,000/month here. Marketing guarantee would have to be no more than $10,000-$15,000, depending on how high you have to go on the per diem. You’ll get that back on the trading card deal anyway, presuming he doesn’t have a marketing guy.
  • Also: Same as above on training and other amenities, but maybe you can get away with a slightly smaller package for a player at a non-sexy position (interior o-line, inside linebacker, maybe safety). But probably not.

Bubble Day 3/ to end of fifth round: This is where you’re hoping you can show the player a nice training package and that’s enough. Stipends have to be in the $1,500/month area, no more than $2,000/month through the draft. These are the players that are really in danger of falling out of the draft if they’re not playing.

  • Estimated stipend/marketing guarantee and per diem: You have to have a Day 3 mindset for these players. Stipend/MG has to be $10,000 or less. Per diem can’t be over $1,500/month thru draft or you’re really gambling.
  • Also: This is where you push your trainer who’ll make you a deal, or maybe who is really aching to train a guy who could go Day 2. If you’re lucky, you stash the kid at a trainer who’s not in the Sun Belt, which also saves you money. The problem is that it’s gonna be hard to talk him out of the blue-chip training facilities, and if you have to go $30,000 to train him, you gotta make cuts elsewhere. This is where the middle-class agencies are hitting the rocks these days.

I wouldn’t recommend signing anyone rated below third round who’s opting out. Anyone below here is more likely to fall out of the draft than to “fall upward.” It’s out of sight, out of mind in the NFL.

We’ll discuss this more in this week’s Friday Wrap. You can register for it here.

 

The 2020 NFL Draft Class, by the Numbers: A Few Observations

15 Friday May 2020

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This week, we looked at all the players signed with agents for the 2020 NFL Draft, the number drafted and the total of undrafted free agents, all sorted by position. It’s here (pay link, sorry).

We’ve done this for the past six years, and it provides an interesting snapshot of the positions most in demand by NFL teams. If you’re just passing through for a look at the top mock drafts or a ranking of NFL GMs, I apologize in advance. Today is for agents, active and aspiring. I think it gives insights into who they should be recruiting in the modern game.

  • As usual, there were more wide receivers signed by agents (244) than any other position. It stands to reason; receivers are plentiful as well as popular in a pro game that’s committed to the pass. What’s more, their numbers are easy to track. On the other hand, receivers’ draft rate is annually around 10 percent, one of the lowest “hit rates” of all the positions. This year’s draft rate was highest ever at just under 15 percent, owing to the talent in the class, though the total number of signees was well below recent classes.
  • More on wide receivers: In the six years we’ve been tracking the numbers, this year’s total number of pass-catchers signed to SRAs is the lowest ever. The high-water mark? It was 2016, when 313 receivers signed with agents. We may never see that total again.
  • A cornerback’s plight is very similar to a wide receiver’s, i.e., lots and lots of them sign with agents, but opportunities are limited. Agents signed 190 corners, but only 28 were drafted and 53 signed as undrafted free agents. In total, 109 cornerbacks (more than half of all who were signed) are on the street mere weeks after draft day. In short, if you’re an agent and you want to maximize your chances on draft weekend, focus on the big slow guys and less on the sleek, sexy guys.
  • Though it’s not sexy, our numbers show, again, that it all starts up front. At only four positions — tight end, guard, tackle and defensive tackle — did better than half of all players signed to standard representation agreements get either drafted or signed as undrafted free agents.
  • Similarly, only four positions — center, guard, tackle and outside linebacker — saw more than 20 percent of all signees selected in the draft. The offensive line isn’t sexy, but if you’re an agent, that’s where the money is.
  • On the other hand, the most popular position immediately following the draft is tight end. A higher percentage of tight ends — just under 39 percent — signed post-draft than did players at any other position. Only two other positions (fullbacks and defensive tackles) signed UDFA contracts at a rate north of 30 percent.
  • it was a tough year to go undrafted. This year, 421 players signed UDFA deals. Last year, 497 signed, while another 522 players attended at least one rookie mini-camp on a tryout basis. With no rookie mini-camps this year, it doesn’t look like any players will get tryout opportunities this year.

To look at all the numbers this year (and since 2015), click here. For a review of what happened in the football business this week, click here. Thank you, as always, for reading.