Everyone always thinks they know which teams have to get a passer in the draft. That’s especially true since, these days, the shelf life on a struggling passer is shorter than ever. But every year, a team falls in love with a player and upsets the balance of the draft with its pick.

Today in the Friday Wrap (register for it here), we talk to people around the game and get their guess on how many QBs will be Day 1 picks this year. It’s probably no surprise that there isn’t a consensus; some say four, others five, and a few six. Make sure to check out the Wrap later today for all the takes.

Still, there’s one other question — which team will surprise by taking a passer? For example, the Titans took Kentucky’s Will Levis early in the second round despite being the first team to take a QB in the 2022 draft (Liberty’s Malik Willis in the third round). The Packers shook up the football community by taking Utah State’s Jordan Love in the first round in 2020; it looks like a genius move now, but it ruffled plenty of feathers with Aaron Rodgers still at the top of his game. The Vikings threw off the draft community in 2011 when they took Florida State’s Christian Ponder with the 12th pick. Ponder had early success, but only played three NFL seasons. 

Who could be the Titans, Packers or Vikings of the 2024 draft? Here are a few possibilities.

Saints: Yes, New Orleans signed Derek Carr to a big contract before the 2023 season. Yes, Carr played well down the stretch. Still, Carr’s contract only, effectively, has one year left, and at some point, the Saints need to turn the page. With a new offensive coordinator coming in, this might make sense.

Dolphins: The Fins hit on all cylinders offensively, but Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t been the most durable of passers and head coach Mike McDaniel is a pass-first kind of guy. Tagovailoa’s contract ends after the 2024 season. The team may feel the need to be proactive.

Cowboys: Owner/GM Jerry Jones didn’t fire Mike McCarthy, but there’s another way to change the team’s performance long-term. Like Tagovailoa, Dak Prescott also has a contract that’s short-term. The Cowboys might want to start fresh. 

Steelers: Pittsburgh just took Kenny Pickett two seasons ago, but the team is already saying he’ll face competition for the starting job next year. Might that competition come from a hotshot rookie? 

Lions: Jared Goff was never seen as the long-term answer at QB for the Lions, but that’s been forgotten due to his renaissance since arriving in Detroit. Maybe now, with a pretty strong team across the board, drafting the next QB could be a luxury the Lions can afford. Granted, the team might want to find out what it has in Hendon Hooker first, but still. 

Giants: This would be truly crazy with Daniel Jones entering the second year of his big new deal, but there’s pressure to win in NY, and if not win, there’s pressure to create hope. There’s nothing more that a new QB brings than hope.