With lots of friends in the front offices of the new XFL, I have been pretty excited about the league, but a little nervous about the league’s two-day draft, which took place Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. How do you populate 70-man rosters from scratch? Especially when media coverage is minimal, players are scattered across the country, staffs are tight and budgets are limited?

From the sound of things, without too much trouble. I reached out to several of the league’s scouts and executives after this week’s draft, and without exception, they were very excited about how well the draft went. Here are their responses:

• “Players were following the draft online. Agents were great to deal with. Players and agents have seen the success the players had from the AAF and getting NFL contracts. The players were great to deal with, even ones that were high NFL draft choices. This league will benefit from what the AAF started. I thought it went very smooth.”   
• “For the first time anybody ever tried to tun a 70-man draft, with 1,100 in the player pool, there were a lot of things that could have gone wrong, and really it went off without a hitch. The guys in the main office did a great job, and there were no problems communicating with the front office. We got the guys on the phone as we made the pick or right before, so we were able to get hold of all of our guys and I didn’t hear any bitching or moaning from agents or players. From what I heard, they were all excited to get the call.”
• “For the most part, agents and players were very accessible throughout both days of the draft. Players almost to a man were fired up to get another opportunity to play, and you could feel their emotion over the phone. Really excited to get to work with them in December.”
• “Thought it went surprisingly smooth. Out of our 70 guys drafted, I think 68 of them were very excited and pumped. We had called about 600 guys prior to the draft. Came across some that said they were not going to play for that little of money, so we took them off our board. But many many more are excited about the opportunity. For a 70-player draft, it went excellent. We are obviously excited about our draft and feel we knocked it our of the park, but the proof will come in (February).”

Of course, I wanted to get a fuller view of the draft, and to do that, I also reached out to a handful of agents to get the other side. I cautioned them not to rant; I only wanted specifics (good and bad) about the draft, with an eye toward constructive criticism. Nobody’s perfect, after all. They gave me several interesting and well-thought-out responses, which will be in today’s Friday Wrap that comes out this evening.

I hope you’ll check it out. If you’re already registered, it will be in your inbox at the customary 6:30 p.m. CT. If you aren’t, you can go here and rectify that.

With the results of this summer’s NFLPA contract advisors exam disseminated, dues paid and liability insurance policies purchased, the Players Association is slowly adding the names of newly minted contract advisors to its website. That means about 100 people being added to the NFL agent ranks are asking, what do I do now?

We field a lot of those questions. In fact, we’ve been answering them for our subscribers over the past two weeks with Monday emails. Here’s one from Sept. 30, in which we discuss the benefits and challenges of trying to join a big firm. Last Monday, we discussed how to get started on recruiting, and this Monday, we’ll talk about the practice of representing college and NFL coaches.

Today, we’re answering another one. One question we always get from new agents is how they can find out who to recruit. The bigger question is, how do they approach scouts to locate the sleepers that they have a shot at singing? With that in mind, we decided to pose this question to new agents: How long did it take you to develop relationships with scouts? How long was it before you could ask scouts questions about players and expect a reasonably timely, reasonably candid response?

Here are some of the responses we got back:

• “Completely random scouts? I’d say my first draft cycle. I had (a big-school client) go to the combine, so some scouts reached out, and then I was able to create a friendship with them. It was really a year-by-year process . . . You can go up to random scouts at all-star games and introduce yourself and push your guy, but the chances of them ever picking up your call or answering your texts in a timely fashion after that on a consistent basis is slim. . . I’d be lying if I said I didn’t make new connections with scouts every single year, and I don’t see that really changing, especially with all the turnover in scouting departments today.”
• “Like 3-4 years. They don’t tell you (anything) until they know you are legit and get quality clients.”
• “My feel personally is . . . whatever time it takes to sign a couple guys that the scouting community realizes, ‘OK, you’ve got a little feel for what you’re doing, a little credibility, and it’s worth me having a conversation about who you’re looking at, who you might be recruiting, who you’re close to signing’ . . . you can almost always get a brief conversation rolling with a scout at some point.”
• “I had one or two my first year that were nice enough to talk to me, but the network of scouts I talk to now has taken me years to develop.”

These aren’t the only responses we got. In fact, one of our friends in the agent community used the question to discuss a significant (and costly) way he’s seen new contract advisors be exploited by opportunistic scouts.

You won’t want to miss their comments, and you don’t have to if you register for our weekly Friday Wrap. You probably already have, but just in case you haven’t, now’s your chance to sign up. You’ll be among 5,000 people across the football industry who receive our review of the week in the game as it pertains to the business. If you haven’t already, please join us.

If you read this blog regularly, or you keep up on our Friday Wrap, you know we like to keep tabs on the major draft prognosticators just to see which ones are more willing to break from the pack, which ones pick up on the hottest prospects earliest, and which ones are most volatile from month to month.

For two-plus years, we’ve surveyed seven services, monitoring them from immediately post-draft all the way through the following draft. It’s always fun to see how the boards change as the season winds toward draft time.

Now that we’re almost halfway through the college season, we thought now would be a good time to take our second look at the seven services (Pro Football Network/Tony Pauline; Pro Football Focus; Sports Illustrated; Bleacher Report/Matt Miller; ESPN/Todd McShay; The Athletic/Dane Brugler; and Walter Football). We previously reviewed their work on July 16 (sorry, pay link).

We have several observations in today’s Friday Wrap, which comes out at 6:30 p.m. CT. In the meantime, here are a few things we found interesting:

Passing thoughts: Utah State’s Jordan Love was seen as a sneaky pick for the first round this summer, though he was only listed on one of the seven boards (Pauline at No. 8); we don’t know how Pauline feels these days, but Love is No. 10 in the eyes of Brugler and No. 29 according to Brugler. Then there’s Washington’s Jacob Eason and LSU’s Joe Burrow. Eason has gone from no boards to three boards in six weeks, with Walter Football listing him at No. 17 over Love, Burrow and Georgia’s Jake Fromm. Meanwhile, Burrow, despite garnering serious Heisman mentions, is mostly persona non grata. Miller likes him at No. 21, while Pro Football Focus slides him in at No. 32. They are the only two services that see him in the first round, but at least he’s not Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts. Like the last two No. 1 overall picks, Hurts is Oklahoma’s starter, a transfer, and a serious Heisman contender, but that’s still not good enough to rate a spot in the top 32 for any of the six services.

Catch the fever: Based on the draft services, it’s going to be a great year to need a wide receiver. Not only were there more receivers than any other position that garnered first-round grades from all six services, but two others (Alabama’s Henry Ruggs III and Clemson’s Tee Higgins) made five out of six boards; Walter Football snubbed both of them. Also, TCU’s Jalen Reagor was on four of six boards.

That’s a stretch: Among the 13 players who made all six boards, the biggest difference of opinion was on Iowa DE A.J. Epenesa as Miller listed him at No. 3, but  McShay only saw him as No. 25. Also, Walter Football tabbed Herbert as the No. 2 pick, but Miller saw him as only the No. 22 selection. Finally, there’s Georgia OT Andrew Thomas; Walter has him at No. 3, but McShay sees him as only the No. 19 pick.

Want more? Make sure to register for our Friday Wrap, which you can do here. You can also check out the entire draft grid — and a whole lot more — by joining us at ITL.

If you want to know how the league changes from year to year, you need to look at its composition. Which positions are becoming more highly valued? How are defenses countering offensive trends, and how is that showing up in the composition of the league?

There’s much more to look at than just draft picks. Each year, hundreds of undrafted rookies make teams as part of the 53-man roster or the practice squad. You have to really go inside the numbers to pull out the trends. Here are a few things we found:

• It’s become rare to see a team carrying more than two quarterbacks. What’s more, we live in a golden age of passers with fewer than 10 teams beginning the season with a different starter from 2018. Still, that hasn’t stopped passers from getting signed at a steady rate. The number of passers repped by agents in each draft class is about 80, plus or minus five, and that’s been pretty consistent over the past five years. As a matter of fact, it’s been exactly 80 each of the last two years. When you consider that QBs are pricey to represent, it’s a questionable choice to sign them.
• Outside of specialists (punters, kickers and long-snappers) and fullbacks, the position that sends up the fewest members per draft class is center. Only 22 made it this year; last year, it was even fewer (17). The silver lining? Of the 22 who made it to a team this year (UDFA or draftee), 19 were on the roster in Week 1. Last year, 17 of 20 (85 percent) made it from camp to the roster.
• Last year featured an interesting anomaly (or a scary lack of talent): defensive ends, normally a pretty in-need position, succeeded in making teams at only a 20 percent rate (29 of 139). This year, those numbers rebounded in a big way as 62 of 144 defensive ends made teams (43.1 percent). Part of this can be explained as the position is going from being a traditional defensive end to an “edge” player who can be more of a linebacker. I expect these numbers to be resolved as we more forward and defensive end and outside linebacker differentiate themselves.

There’s plenty more to learn if you check out our grid, which is linked to each of the other four years that we’ve examined, going back to 2015. Another way to study league trends is to read our weekly Friday Wrap, which goes out in less than three hours (6:30 p.m. CDT). We’ve got more trends that we identified, but that’s not all. We talk about the college and football business every week for our thousands of readers.

We’d love for you to be one of them. Just register here.

One of the benefits of being in a business for almost two decades is that you make a lot of relationships, good and bad, and you get to sort out the pretenders from the legit sources of information. One of our new friends, Mike Ginnitti of Spotrac, is definitely “legit.” 

If you read this blog regularly, you’re the kind of person who doesn’t need an introduction to what Mike and the team at Spotrac do. This week, with Super Bowl-winning QBs and All-Pro cornerbacks suddenly on the block, trade winds are in the air. But which teams can easily take on salary this time of year? And which one’s can’t? We asked Mike to give us a look at which teams have the highest cash payrolls and which ones have the lowest. Below are his thoughts.

While much is made of the highest paid players or the teams with the fewest or least amount of cap space in a given year, the notion of actual cash paid out by a team is often overlooked. Here’s a quick breakdown of the top and bottom five cash payrolls in the NFL for the 2019 season, which includes all active salaries, players on reserve lists, and dead cash – or cash being paid out to players who were released but still had guarantees. Note: this is a snapshot look, as these numbers change on a daily basis. For a look at Spotrac’s Team Cash Tracker, click here.

Top-five highest cash payrolls, in order:

Atlanta Falcons, $256.7M: The Falcons have big-time bonuses for Matt Ryan ($33.25M), Julio Jones ($25M), & Grady Jarrett ($18M) taking up the bulk of their 2019 payroll, & another $14M allocated to players already on their injured reserve list. Their payroll signifies that the Falcons consider themselves inside of a window to win, even if the play on the field isn’t quite cooperating just yet. Over 61% of the Falcons’ 2019 payroll is being allocated to the offensive side of the ball.

Philadelphia Eagles, $212.4M: The Eagles routinely keep a high cash payroll because of the way in which they structure their contracts: high cash early with the mindset that multiple salaries will be restructured into bonuses in years 2, 3 and sometimes 4. Most of the Eagles’ high cash earners in 2019 fall under this category (Alshon Jeffery, Lane Johnson, Fletcher Cox). The big exception, of course, is QB Carson Wentz, who takes in $17M in year one of his sophomore extension, and who will see nearly $40M cash in 2020. Over 58% of the Eagles’ cash payroll this year belongs to offensive players.

New York Jets, $208.3M: Of the Top 10 cash payrolls, only two teams are spending more on their defense than their offense in 2019: the Jets (51%) and the Packers (52%). For New York, that’s due in large part to the blockbuster free agent signing of C.J. Mosley ($19M) and No. 3 overall selection Quinnen Williams ($16.7M). Elsewhere the Jets already have $20M of cash locked into players on injured reserve or non-football injury (NFI) lists, and another $2.25M allocated to suspended players. Sam Darnold ($1.85M) ranks 25th among Jets’ cash salaries for 2019.

Pittsburgh Steelers, $207.4M: The Steelers have $102M spent on their offense (44% of which belong to the now-injured Ben Roethlisberger), $98M allocated to their defense and a little more than $5.6M on special teams. Restructured contracts for Joe Haden and Maurkice Pouncey round out the big numbers this year, while newly drafted inside linebacker Devin Bush sees $12.2M in his rookie campaign. Many of these numbers drop off considerably in 2020, as Pittsburgh currently has just $132M cash spent into next season, with 39 contracts locked in.

Minnesota Vikings, $203.3M: The Vikings have done a remarkable job of keeping their core players around despite pressure to earn more elsewhere. Big-time extensions for Adam Thielen and Anthony Barr combine with recent deals for Kirk Cousins, Xavier Rhodes and Danielle Hunter for a top-heavy cash payroll in 2019. These five players combine for 39 percent of the Vikings’ entire payroll this season.

So which five teams have the most cap room to play with, if they so chose? You’ll have to read our Friday Wrap to get the five teams on the other end of the scale. Don’t get it already? You can register here.

If you read this blog regularly, you know we talk a lot about the challenges and difficulties of being an NFLPA-licensed contract advisor these days. I talk to agents every day who lament the issues they face on a daily basis, and they often wonder if it’s all a waste of time.

That’s why I was really surprised to learn that at least four people — Andrew Brandt, Alexis Cobb, J.I. Halsell and Adam O’Neil — had gotten re-certified after previously spending time representing players. Given the difficulties in the business and the balkanization of the agent class, I wanted to find out what brought them back, so I reached out to them. The following is a brief overview of their experience in the industry and why they chose to return.

• Phoenix-based Halsell surprised me when he told me he was leaving Priority Sports in 2014 and getting out of the game. He had enjoyed success, having worked for the league office in the early ’00s, followed by two years with the Redskins in their cap department and a good run with Priority, one of the better agencies. Then again, he didn’t leave the business entirely: he maintained his own salary cap website, did media appearances, and of course worked with Chargers OT Russell Okung as a consultant on two contracts. For that reason, it’s true when he says “I didn’t really completely leave the agent business. In addition to working with Okung, I consulted several certified contract advisors on contract negotiations during this time. Given that experience and the connections i’ve made during that time, it made sense for me to get recertified and use my skill set on my terms.” 
• Pittsburgh-based Cobb dropped her certification in 2014, but like J.I., she didn’t really leave the business, instead focusing solely on coaches. She has since built up her firm, ASC Executive Group, to represent several rising college coaches, and she said she’s smarter and more established this time. “I decided to represent athletes again because I felt my coaches division . . . was strong and I didn’t need to devote all my time to it. Therefore, I could really refocus my energies on athlete representation.” Furthermore, she has “learned lessons that I can avoid when I was a young agent. Now, I can work smarter for my guys with much more understanding rather than being inexperienced.” 
• Orlando-area attorney O’Neil got certified in 2013, but dumped his certification three years later. He said that, since then, he got a chance to strengthen his law practice, but the itch to represent NFL players never left, so he’s back. “I spent a couple years off and worked on my firm and infrastructure to put myself in a much better position . . . I never truly wanted to leave, but with the extra challenges added, I (knew I) wouldn’t stay afloat for long,” he said. “I’ve put myself in a much better position to be able to not only chase my own dream but to make sure players can continue chasing theirs.”

Want even more thoughts on the business, its shortcomings, and how to succeed in it, regardless of what role you’d like to play? Start off by registering for the Friday Wrap. You can do that here. It’s free, and you’ll be among 5,000 people across the business who receive it every week.

On Wednesday, I first started getting texts and emails from the people who’d used our practice exams and study guides before taking the 2019 NFL Agent Exam, and they were excited — they’d passed the test.

“I couldn’t have made it without ITL! I’m forever grateful,” said one. “Without your guide and newsletters, I would have been lost entering the seminars,” said another. “I could not have done it on the first try without you and ITL,” said a third. There were plenty more, which is one reason why the day results come out is such a special time for us here at ITL.

Of course, after a few days, the euphoria wears off and the reality of actually signing and working with NFL players begins to become a worry, and maybe even a concern. That’s natural, but no less daunting.

Having worked with new agents since ’02, we get it. For those members of the ’19 agent class who are wondering what’s next, here are a few words of wisdom.

• Take time to celebrate: We’ve been told it took 48 correct answers (out of 60) to pass this year. At 80 percent, that means either the test was a little easier than usual or test-takers just did better than in previous classes. We prefer to believe the latter. Either way, you’ve accomplished something that most people don’t, so give yourself some credit.
• Swing for the fences: You’ve done a bold thing by pursuing certification. Don’t stop now. For many, the temptation is to play it cool; many new agents don’t even recruit in their first year certified, which is insane given that you only get three years to land someone on an NFL roster. I encourage you to go for it.
• Don’t seek salvation: For many agents, the goal is to find a mega-agency willing to hire you. While this seems tempting, the reality is that no firm is interested in looking at you unless you have proven yourself. If you’re a new agent, no matter how hard-working or earnest you are, the big agencies are not going to look at you.
• Study the business: The temptation when you get certified is to lean heavily on the contacts and network you already have. Remember: there’s more information out there today than there ever has been, about which players get an NFL chance, about the backgrounds of people in NFL scouting and administration, about the players in the most recent draft, who represented them and who trained them. This is your rookie year; learn not just by doing, but by studying. It will serve you well in Year 2.
• Understand that you’ll pay a price: Like anything else worth accomplishing, you will have to use resources to experience even a modicum of success. Maybe that’s money. Maybe that’s time. Maybe that’s your pride. Chances are, it will be all three. You have to be careful about making sacrifices, but you’ll have to do it, even if you have dozens of friends in the business. Accept that.

One other piece of advice I’d recommend is that you join us at Inside the League. Maybe you used our exam prep materials to get you through the test; maybe you’ve read our book about the NFL Draft process; maybe you’ve only heard of us on Twitter; or maybe you’ve read our blog for a while now. If any of those apply to you, it will be worth it for you to have access to our site. Even more than that, however, we’ll be starting our annual series, the ITL Rising Contract Advisor Newsletter, in November. If you’re part of ITL, you’ll get our Monday-through-Thursday emails that serve as a sort of tutorial on the business. You can only get that if you’re an ITL client.

Then again, maybe you need to learn more first. To do that, we recommend subscribing to our weekly newsletter, the Friday Wrap. You can register for it here. You can check out last week’s episode here.

By now, you know all about former Colts QB Andrew Luck’s decision to retire two weeks before the start of the season after just seven years in the league, and you may or may not have a strong opinion on it.

However, we wanted to get away from the fan reaction or the applause on social media and focus more on how, or if, Luck’s move might affect scouting and evaluation. Our question to some of our friends in the scouting community was this: With money exploding and head injury concerns already creating doubts among players about long careers, do you think scouts will start wondering if players with excellent academic credentials (like Luck) will have shorter careers and/or leave prematurely?

Here are a few of their reactions.

• “It comes down to the love of the game and if a player really needs ball I guess…. everyone is wired differently, though. The guys who are overly analytical could raise questions moving forward. Mental toughness is definitely high on the scale, regardless of position.”
• “With the Luck decision, no, I don’t think I would question what could potentially happen to a player down the road in their career. Luck’s mentality and attitude was second to none. He laid (it) on the line, probably to a fault. He’s a total winner as a person. You can’t ask for any more. Each player’s path is different, as well, with health and injuries. (Former Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski is) very similar. The players today are just more informed and educated about training, health, and safety, along with quality of life. The older generation of players had no choice, other than to exhaust their careers, and the young guys see the consequences.”
• “I don’t think it will be something that comes into play too much.  This isn’t a common occurrence.  If and when it does, then it could become a piece of the puzzle that would require some more thought. It wasn’t like he retired after 2-3 seasons. Most players don’t play for as long as he did, regardless. If you get seven years out of a player, you’d be fairly happy. It stinks because he played at a high level last year, but his body just couldn’t sustain it. (Still,) the timing is awful.  Go on (injured reserve) and then retire. They’re going to let him keep the money, so they could’ve worked something out. That part is rough.”
• “I think scouts will only ask that question on extremely elite players. I could see it coming up with (Oregon QB Justin) Herbert, for sure. I do not see it becoming a widespread thing though. Luck is just one in a million that’s insanely talented and insanely intelligent – he thinks on different wavelengths than 99% of players and probably 95% of humanity.
• “We are concerned with all players thinking that way regardless of the academic credentials. But we don’t know if it was his mind that hurt more than the body? He fought through a lot to get to this point, and obviously felt satisfied with what he accomplished in his career. Satisfied players don’t press on; they drop out. I want the ones that want to play to make money and take care of their families, but also want to win a championship! Most are happy with money and taking care of the family.”
  

We’ve got more reaction in today’s Friday Wrap, plus plenty of other good stuff for fans of scouting, representing, coaching or parenting players. It goes out to about 5,000 people across the industry every week, and it comes out later today. You can register for it here.

Today, if last year is any comparison, the people who took the NFL agent exam in July will find out if they passed or failed. While almost half of those who took the exam will get good news, many others won’t. Still, given the odds of achieving real success in the business, maybe those who don’t make the cut are the real winners.

Consider the following grid. We went back to the first contract advisor class certified by the NFLPA under the new CBA, negotiated in 2011. What we found is that those who aspire to be the next Rosenhaus, Segal or Condon have a pretty tall mountain to climb.

It should be noted that the agent exam became sharply harder in 2015, which explains how the number of contract advisors certified dropped from 176 in 2014 to just 75, at least by our totals, in 2015. It’s also worth noting that the three-year rule (which is explained in the body of this article) apparently cuts class size by about 20 percent if the 22-point drop between 2016 (which has not yet faced the three-year cutdown) and 2015 (which has) is any indication.

This grid caps a week of surveying the industry, looking at who’s having success and who isn’t, and considering the challenges that face the business. In the last seven days, on our flagship site, we posted a list of every contract advisor with at least 10 active clients as of this month (and included each agent’s firm and certification year, for the first time); took a look at all 12 players who made agent changes in the June-to-July time frame (including one player who’s been represented by three firms though he’s only played 28 games since being drafted in 2015); and also listed the 21 who made changes during the July-to-August term. Apparently, they were the procrastinators who wanted to put off hard business until immediately before camps started.

We’ll be making observations and digging into these numbers (and much more) in today’s Friday Wrap. As you know, it’s a weekly overview of the football business that goes out to about 5,000 people across the industry every week, and of course, it’s free. Here’s a look at last week’s edition.

If you’d like to register for the Wrap, do it here.

At Inside the League, we solely focus on the business of football. Still, the Major League Baseball Players Association will have its agent exam next week, and we have a practice exam for those people headed to New York City Tuesday and Wednesday. If you’d like more details about it, here’s a piece I wrote two years ago when we launched it.

In the meantime, here are a few odd thoughts about baseball, agents, exams, and whatever else I can think of.

• We often get asked why we’ve never branched into baseball before, other than the practice exam, of course. There are a few reasons — I like baseball plenty, so it’s nothing personal — but the main reason is because the gestation period from signing someone to being paid can be so lengthy on the diamond. I mean, by the time you sign a kid, he gets drafted, winds his way through the minors, makes a 40-man roster, makes an active roster, then gets to arbitration, it could be 5-6 years. In football, it’s closer to 5-6 months, if all goes well.
• At the same time, baseball seems to be a lot less volatile, and it will be interesting to see how the MLB’s certification process develops (it was just introduced a couple years ago). A lot of football agents are also certified in baseball, and they say it’s a good news/bad news proposition. On one hand, there’s a lot of hand-holding that can last years with no recompense. On the other hand, the players seem to be more appreciative and even-keeled. I guess it’s a reflection of the game’s more relaxed pace vs. the action-packed combat that makes up football.
• Whether it’s because the exam intimidates agent prospects, or whether it’s because baseball is less popular than football, only about a fourth as many people took the MLB exam last year as regularly take the NFL exam. My theory (and I’m only half-joking): the biggest movie about being an NFL agent was pretty good, while movies about the business of baseball, except maybe Moneyball, are mostly about scouts and mostly stink.

Whether you’re into sports business generally, or you’re mostly focused on the off-the-field game related to the NFL, don’t forget to register for our weekly Friday Wrap. It comes out every Friday evening at 6:30 p.m. CT, and it’s read by about 5,000 movers and shakers in the game. You can register for it here, and you can check out last week’s edition here. And if you’re taking the MLB exam next week, good luck!