“Trade back!”

It’s the constant chant from the fan of the struggling team with needs everywhere. The thinking is that more picks is always better, and that if you have enough at-bats, you’re sure to get a hit somehow. Well, maybe that’s the perception, but it’s not necessarily the truth. We see this in the 2016 NFL Draft, which is the year we chronicle in Value Picks: The Drama, Decisions and Details Behind Eight Selections in the 2016 NFL Draft. Let’s set the scene.

Analytics-minded Paul Depodesta had just come over from the Mets to be Cleveland’s Chief Strategy Officer, and the team’s philosophy, draft-wise, became quantity over quality. Throw enough picks at the wall, the thinking was, and the law of averages says you have to find at least a few players. After a flurry of pre-draft and draft-day trades, the team wound up with 14 picks, with six of them in the top 100. The deals included:

  • Trading the No. 2 pick and a conditional fifth-rounder to the Eagles for Philadelphia’s first-, third- and fourth-rounders (8, 77 and 100) in 2016 and their first- and second-rounder in 2017.
  • Trading the Eagles’ first-rounder (No. 8 in the draft) and a sixth-rounder (176) to the Titans in exchange for Tennessee’s first- and third-round selections (15 and 76, respectively) in addition to a second-rounder in 2017.
  • Trading their third- and fifth-rounders (77 and 141) to the Panthers in exchange for the Panthers’ third-, fourth- and fifth-rounders (93, 129, 168).
  • Trading their fourth (100) to the Raiders in exchange for Oakland’s fourth- and fifth-rounders (114 and 154).
  • Trading their seventh-rounder (223) to the Dolphins in exchange for a seventh (250) and DC Jamar Taylor.

That’s a lot of trading, and every time, the Browns traded back. But did it work out?

First, let’s look at the players Cleveland drafted, with the number of seasons each played in the NFL and his last season with the Browns.

  • Baylor WO Corey Coleman (1/15): Played five seasons, last one 2017.
  • Oklahoma St. DE Emmanuel Ogbah (2/32): Played nine seasons, last one in 2018.
  • Penn St. DE Carl Nassib (3/65): Played seven seasons, last one 2017.
  • Auburn OT Shon Coleman (3/76): Played seven seasons, last one in 2017.
  • UsC QB Cody Kessler (3/93): Played four seasons, last one in 2017.
  • Wisconsin IB Joe Schobert (4/99): Played seven seasons, last one in 2019.
  • Auburn WO Ricardo Louis (4/114): Played four seasons, last one in 2018.
  • TCU FS Derrick Kindred (4/129): Played three seasons, last one in 2018.
  • Princeton TE Seth DeValve (4/138): Played five seasons, last one in 2018.
  • Baylor WO Jordan Payton (5/154): Played two seasons, last one in 2017.
  • Baylor OT Spencer Drango (5/168): Played four seasons, last one in 2017.
  • Colorado St. WO Rashard Higgins (5/172): Played seven seasons, last one in 2021.
  • La..-Monroe DC Trey Caldwell (5/173): Played one season, last one in 2016.
  • Arizona IB Scooby Wright (7/250): Played three seasons, last one in 2016.

Now let’s look at what matters most: the Browns’ records over the next four seasons.

  • 2016: 1-15
  • 2017: 0-16
  • 2018: 7-8-1
  • 2019: 6-10

Ultimately, the team’s records (especially in 2016 and 2017) are the metric for judging how well the strategy worked. However, let’s look further at how the draftees did.

  • By 2019, not one of their Day 1 and Day 2 picks was on the team. None of them played more than two seasons with the team.
  • By 2020, their next winning season after 2016 (they went 11-5), only one of their draftees (fifth-rounder Higgins) was still with the team.
  • None of the picks played more than nine seasons. All but one of the eight players we profile in Value Picks (Ohio State’s Michael Thomas) played at least nine seasons.
  • Only one (Wisconsin IB Joe Schobert) made a Pro Bowl (and he only made one). 
  • The average NFL player sticks around 3.5 seasons in the league, but only eight of Cleveland’s 14 played more than three. Four played three or fewer.

Trading back can work, and maybe this example is a bit extreme. Still, it’s an illustration of what can happen. Bottom line, if you’re going to trade back, you’d better have conviction on the players still available and a plan for getting help when you finally get to make the picks.