• About

Succeed in Football

~ The daily blog written by ITL's Neil Stratton

Succeed in Football

Category Archives: NFL draft

Highlights from Week 2 of the ’23 All-Star Season

20 Friday Jan 2023

Posted by itlneil in Agents, NFL draft, Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

This week, I’m in Orlando, Fla., for the second half of the 2023 Trillion Tropical Bowl. The first part of the week was dedicated to players fighting to win spots on the roster for later in the week, when teams arrived to evaluate prospects. It’s a new dimension added this year by Michael Quartey and his team.

Here are a few things that happened this week that caught my attention.

  • Per yesterday’s measurements, there are 16 players in Orlando with at least 10-inch hands. UNLV DT Tavis Malakius has the biggest mitts with at 10 7/8 inches. Hawaii WO Jordan Murray has 10 1/4-inch hands, biggest of all the non-linemen. Murray’s got 33-inch arms and a 80 1/2-inch wingspan, enormous for a receiver. Southeast Missouri St. WO Johnny King has quite a catch radius, as well, with 34 1/8-inch arms. Auburn DE Marcus Bragg has the longest arms on either roster at 36 inches.
  • This is not a comprehensive list, but I’ve seen multiple scouts here from the 49ers, Bucs, Bears, Colts, Falcons, Jaguars, Jets, Packers, Saints, Steelers and Texans. As always, the Trop is a popular destination with NFL teams.
  • There are 70 agencies (or advisors working on a less formal basis) representing the 139 players here. That number seems high. Many of the agencies that regularly send players to Orlando aren’t here this year. Not sure what that means, if anything, but it’s different.
  • Here’s something I thought was interesting. Former Ravens DT John Urschel has his doctorate in mathematics, and though his playing days are behind him, he’s found a way to stay around the game. He tutors draft prospects on the Wonderlic via Zoom for combine prep trainees at EXOS Arizona.
  • Like any game these days, the Tropical Bowl has had to deal with players who said they’d be here, but who pulled out quite late or just no-showed. We counted 16 players who weren’t around Thursday morning for meetings and measurements. Good for Boise St. DC Caleb Biggers, who showed up this morning in time for practice, and Florida St. TE Camren McDonald, who got an NFLPA Collegiate Bowl invite but decided to stay for practices before departing the day before the game to report to Los Angeles.
  • Do these no-shows have an impact on players’ draft standing? Maybe not if handled well, but there’s a right way and a wrong way to do things. I’ll never forget when I ran the 2008 Hula Bowl and I was approached mid-week by Jim Abrams, now the Senior Scout for the Dolphins but then in his time with the Bucs. Jim pointedly asked me if there were any players we’d had trouble with that week. Well, we had one lineman from a MAC school who started complaining on the first day and didn’t quit until he got on his plane home. Keep in mind he was on an all-expenses-paid trip to Hawaii. I mean, how bad could things be? I was happy to tell Jim about this friend. For more on this topic — one that strikes a nerve with me — check out today’s Friday Wrap, which comes out at 7:30 p.m. ET. You can register for it here.
  • I’m always approached about what it takes to become an agent. If you choose player representation, I’d keep in mind this expression from one established, successful, and maybe a little world-weary contract advisor who’s been a friend for a long time. When discussion today turned to when retirement might come, his response was maybe a little wry but accurate: “The only exit strategy is death.”

 

 

What Kind of Package Does It Take To Sign a 2023 Draft Prospect?

06 Friday Jan 2023

Posted by itlneil in Agents, NFL draft, NIL

≈ Leave a comment

A question I get quite often is, what does it take, in 2023, to land a draft pick? What kind of package cinches a signing?

Even though I have conversations with agents at every level every day this time of year, it’s a really hard question to ask. But I’m going to try to answer it here. First, let’s define the factors that influence the price.

  • Start with the player’s draft ranking. Obviously, this is super, super, super subjective, especially this early. Still, players and agents make educated guesses on this in December and January every year, and it’s an important part of the formula. I think the major dividing lines are the first five picks in the draft, the first 100 picks, and the next 50 or so. I would say the first five picks are in one tier, the next 95 (end of Day 2) are in another tier, and the players drafted by about the end of Round 4 are in the final tier. After that, it’s really hard to predict who gets all the modern accoutrements (monthly per diem, signing bonus, costly training, fee cut, etc.). But I think these three tiers are pretty much set in stone. Obviously, it’s also important to recognize that there’s a big difference between the top and bottom of each tier. The sixth pick in the draft gets a much bigger package than the last pick in the third round.
  • Next, does the player play offense or defense? That’s a key distinction. Offensive players get more than defensive players, generally.
  • Next, if he plays offense, is he a QB, running back or wide receiver? If you score touchdowns, you get a premium, if for no other reason than your marketing appeal.
  • What kind of program did the player come from? Obviously, a player from a top-five program sees himself differently from one from an FCS program. It doesn’t matter if the big-school player is a backup and the small-schooler is a solid regular. There’s a different level of entitlement. Also — bigger programs can offer bigger NIL packages. I’ve heard that, lately, smaller schools are hurriedly sending out money requests to boosters, trying to match the big offers being tendered to players entering the portal. By the way, it’s probably too late for those smaller schools.
  • How was the player rated coming out of high school? Once one of the high school ranking services places a four- or five-star label on a player, in his mind, the player never sees himself as less than that.
  • What kind of agency is trying to sign the player? Bigger firms with more clients and an established reputation will have to pay less, obviously.

So how do you price things? Let’s start from the bottom.

Early Day 3 picks (bottom of the third tier) are getting $3,000/per month and up, probably topping out around $10,000/month, January through April. They might get a signing bonus of around an extra month. Obviously, all training costs are covered, as well, adding another $20,000 to $30,000 to the price tag.

In the second tier, the floor for monthly per diem is probably $7,000 per month, with some kind of five-figure signing bonus. That signing bonus could come in the form of a marketing guarantee, which usually makes the number a good bit better. I would think most first-rounders are getting six-figure marketing guarantees, with at least a portion of that coming in cash upon signing the SRA. Also, first-rounders typically don’t pay more than one percent on their rookie contract. Typically, second-rounders pay two percent, and the rest pay three — if they get a sizable package. Agents who don’t offer all the financial bells and whistles normally have to cut their fees as a lure.

For the the top five picks, the top tier, you’re looking at seven-figure packages, especially for quarterbacks. I’ve heard of a million dollars as a signing bonus, usually structured as a marketing guarantee, plus a five-figure monthly per diem that could be as high as $50,000 per month. Also, the players rated in the top five are almost always paying no more than one point on their contract. Many are paying less than that. Some are paying zero.

Keep in mind that as recently as 20 years ago — not really that long ago — agencies didn’t even pay for training. Those days, of course, are long gone. These days (especially as schools offer hundreds of thousands of dollars to keep a player on campus), it’s anything goes. We may be way off on our numbers, but based on the conversations I’ve had, we’re in the ballpark.

CGS 2023: A Look at the First Major All-Star Game

30 Friday Dec 2022

Posted by itlneil in Agents, NFL draft, Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

This week, I hope you’ll allow me to brag a little on my friends Craig Redd and Jose Jefferson and the event they founded that enters its ninth year next month, the College Gridiron Showcase in Fort Worth, Texas. It’s different from your normal all-star game, and since I always get questions about it, I thought I’d use this space to explain how it’s different.

There is no “game,” per se. Instead, game organizers have multiple events for participants at all strata of the game. All of our events “work” because NFL scouts are on site for the full schedule, so participants get seen more than they would at your typical one-off event. Here’s a quick rundown.

  • Pro Free agent event: This workout is aimed at “street” free agents from previous draft classes. This event is usually held the Friday that CGS week kicks off.
  • Specialists Showcase: This is held closer to the end of the week, and is aimed at draft-eligible kickers, punters and long-snappers.
  • Small College Showcase: This runs Friday, Saturday and Sunday, and once it’s completed, NFL scouts vote to determine which players advance to the main rosters, the Wranglers and Desperadoes.
  • Two full rosters of all-stars: The Wranglers and Desperadoes work out as part of our more traditional format. The difference is that because we don’t have a game, we don’t have coaches cramming in a playbook or running through endless special teams drills that show little about a player’s abilities. Everything we do at the CGS is geared toward allowing players to show what they have.

All of this is why the CGS has a well-earned positive reputation among NFL teams. There are other facets to the showcase that make it stand out from other evaluation events.

For example, 2023 will be the second year of CGS University (CGSU), a program designed to help aspiring scouts get practical experience with NFL scouts and executives. Much of this comes from CGSU members’ activities on interview day, the nine-hour period we set aside to allow scouts to interview as many players that they’d like. Participants also spend the week hearing from scouts on how they got into the business and what they look for in scouting hires. I really feel there’s no other opportunity like it. 

It makes for a satisfying and professionally run five days for everyone involved, from the players to the scouts to CGS officials and others. However, this year, we have two new items we’re especially proud of.

One is the interview-only invite. This allows players who cannot participate due to injuries to come to Fort Worth and take part in the weekend’s sit-downs with NFL scouts. Obviously, we can’t mandate that an NFL team interview a player. However, we can make players available if they take part in this program. Interviews and background checks are such an underrated part of the draft process, and often their value is misunderstood by agent and prospect alike. This program allows players to get to know NFL teams before crucial pre-combine meetings when scouts and executives do a lot of their sorting out of the draft class. Cost is $250 and players are responsible for their own travel. For more information, contact Craig at info@cgsallstar.com.

Also this year, there’s one more enticement: Agent Live 360 will host a mixer for NFLPA-licensed contract advisors on Monday, Jan. 9, from 5-6 p.m. at Chef’s Table Bar in the Sheraton. This will be a great chance not only to meet a former NFL scout (Rodrik David, formerly of the Falcons) and to learn about a really incredible product like AL360, but also to do a little networking with other members of the football business community.

At the end of the day, the CGS offers opportunities for almost anyone trying to make his way in football. I look forward to getting started along with my friends in Fort Worth in six days. If you’re in town, I hope you can stop by.

 

 

Ask the Scouts: Can an NFL Team Draft to Minimize Injuries?

02 Friday Dec 2022

Posted by itlneil in NFL draft, Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

As a Saints fan, it’s been frustrating to see many of the team’s better players miss game after game. The narrative has developed that these injuries are simply bad luck, an unpredictable but expected aspect of a violent game. One Saints beat writer has even been dismissive towards fans’ frustrations with players like WO Michael Thomas, who has played only a handful of games over the last three seasons despite what seem like minimal injuries.

Is the “bad luck” narrative true? Or is there a way to predict which teams, and which players, will be particularly beset by injuries that lead to missed games?

Here’s my take on it, especially as it pertains to the Saints. Under Assistant GM Jeff Ireland, who has revitalized the team since his arrival in 2015, the team has drafted players with exceptional athleticism. When crafted and developed, such a player  can win matchups and be a disruptor on defense or a playmaker on offense. On the other hand, athletes as football players tend to be more greyhound than bulldog. When things aren’t just right, they lack the will to grind. That could be why, year after year, the team gets high marks for talent but has trouble keeping its players on the field. Even though they have changed doctors and even hired sports science professionals aiming at improving player health, injuries have stacked up this season.

Furthermore, I think that if you have bulldogs in each positional room, you’re more likely that they’ll put pressure on their peers to answer the bell on game day despite the nicks accrued during the season. I know personally that players have deferred to their agents before deciding if they’d play through injuries.

Of course, this is just my theory. Am I off base? I turned to several friends in the business to get their opinions.

  • Former Bills GM Doug Whaley, who’s now running the entire personnel side for XFL 3.0, said that, most definitely, a team could draft for health and toughness. “I think you can if you bring in players with the majority of the following qualities: Are they junk yard dogs? Is failure not an option? Do they hate to lose more than like to win? Are they dedicated to their craft on, and more importantly off, the field?”
  • Three-time NFL GM Randy Mueller said he thinks “you can develop toughness, but more from a mental standpoint, not physical toughness.”  He’s more philosophical about injuries: “I just think you have to plan on guys getting hurt — every year. It’s not ‘if’ but ‘when.'”
  • Former Bengals executive Jim Lippincott seems to lean more toward my thinking. “One of the true secrets of scouting is predicting the future,” he texted. “When we study players, we most certainly are aware of how many games a player plays in college..(the most important ability is dependability). . . You can put together a draft class and sign free agents with their availability history foremost in your mind. However, money makes players act differently, and who knows who is counseling the player on how to handle injury!!!”
  • Former Bears GM Jerry Angelo is similar to Lippincott in his thinking. “You want every player that you have in your locker room there because they love the game as demonstrated through their work ethic and competitive nature,” Jerry wrote. “They hold each other accountable with a ‘Team First’ attitude. That’s the culture all coaches and organizations want and strive to build. Saying that, each year teams need to fill holes, upgrade their roster and try to accumulate as much talent as they can to compete favorably each season. In doing so, they may compromise certain intangibles, that are integral tenets to winning. The line is so fine, you don’t know when you’ve crossed it. How much risk are you willing to take is the litmus test for every team.”
  • Former Titans executive Blake Beddingfield initially disagreed with my premise “Not sure I can answer that,” he texted. “Even players with a history of playing every game get hurt. I have seen players with bodies and frames that make you say durability, but they are always hurt. (Then,) players like (former Titans OH) Chris Johnson . . . looked frail (but) never got hurt.” After discussing this with him, however, he seemed to agree that some players are just tougher than others, citing Rams DT Aaron Donald’s durability despite his violent playing style, as well as former Oilers offensive lineman Bruce Matthews and his brother, former Browns linebacker Clay Matthews, who played almost four decades between them despite playing tough positions physically. 

The draft, by its very nature, is a very inexact science. Still, I believe tough teams are built on draft day by working to put hardy, tough players at key places in the locker room. They create positive peer pressure, especially as the season wears on and the temptation to take games off gets greater.

Am I crazy? Perhaps. Make sure you’re keeping up with people who are a lot smarter than I am by reading our weekly newsletter, the Friday Wrap. Register for it here.

 

In Memoriam: Vikings scout Kevin McCabe

08 Thursday Sep 2022

Posted by itlneil in NFL draft, Scouts, Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

I never met Kevin McCabe, but boy, judging from what my friends say about him, I really wish I did.

Ever bump into two different people, who live states apart, who both called a recently deceased person their best friend? I had that experience Wednesday, when I (and most of the NFL scouting community) found out about the passing of McCabe, who had fought a long, tough battle with leukemia.

Here are a few things to know about McCabe, who surveyed West Coast schools for prospects for the Rams and Vikings since the late 90s.

He was loved by members of the scouting community: We are blessed to have lots of current and former NFL scouts who follow us on Twitter, and we’ve tweeted about scouts’ deaths before, but I’ve never seen the buzz McCabe’s passing created. Getting 285 likes and 61 RTs (as of 11 a.m. CT) is just not something that happens for this kind of tweet. Twenty-seven comments is crazy, too. That tweet might have generated the most attention of any tweet I’ve ever sent. I got the same vibe from scouts I reached out to. “Great guy! Always willing to help you out if you need anything. He has a calm approach to his scouting style,” said one NFC scout. An AFC evaluator told me McCabe was “my best friend and mentor. I’m a much better husband, dad and scout because of all the time I got to spend with Kevin. . . (he) was a living example of how we should treat each other.” 

He was loved by agents, too: Until an agent really makes it, contract advisors are half nuisance, half necessary evil to most NFL evaluators, but McCabe got plenty of posthumous praise yesterday. James Krenis of Accel Sports said, “Kevin was kind to me when I started in this business, and that isn’t common.” That comment was representative of what I heard from other agents, as well.

He was one of the select few scouts who take position groups around at the combine: This is a really cool story about McCabe’s work leading the running backs in Indianapolis each year. The story indicates that he volunteered for the job, but it wound up being a pretty valuable tool for gaining more insights. The team actually drafted two rushers, Florida State’s Dalvin Cook and Boise State’s Alex Mattison, after first sourcing McCabe’s take on them post-Indy.

Our prayers go out to his friends and family across the game. To read more about the industry that McCabe was such a big part of, check out our weekly newsletter, which comes out Fridays at 7:30 p.m. ET. You can register for it here.

Turnover in NFL Front Offices, Why It Happens and What it Means

12 Thursday May 2022

Posted by itlneil in NFL draft, Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

In the last two weeks, scouts with decades of experience in player evaluation have been sent packing by their respective teams. How is this so, you might ask? Don’t you want seasoned people helping you pick the players for your team?

I admit it’s hard to understand. Let me try to make sense of it.

  • There was a time when old coaches in the fourth quarter of their respective careers became NFL scouts for a number of reasons: they primarily scouted regions where they’d worked; NFL teams had healthy pension programs; and it gave them a chance to get away from the weekly grind of trying to win on Saturday. In many cases, these scouts weren’t career-minded. They were looking to wind down their careers but weren’t on a GM path. A big percentage of younger people who came into the industry had connections to owners and others in the business; there has always been a lot of nepotism in the NFL.  However, there was not a substantial number of young up-and-comers because teams were mostly hiring scouts based on their experience.
  • During this time, team ownership was dominated by the Maras, Rooneys, Wilsons and others who saw teams (at least partially) as part of a city’s profile and heritage rather than as an investment. Obviously, given the financial strength of the league and its teams, this attracted a new class of owners who were attracted to the game, but also were attracted to what teams would add to their respective portfolios. Think Dallas’ Jerry Jones when he first entered the league, or more recently, David Tepper in Carolina. As those new owners have gained power, they are less constrained by the traditions of the game. They have been willing to expand the size of scouting departments — in the last 30 years, most teams have gone from 5-10 scouts/advisors to an average of 20 — and, slowly, improve pay. At the same time, however, most are dumping pensions and other long-term investments in scouts. This has led to a tendency to make shorter-term commitments to scouts and evaluators.
  • These new owners are also open to new ways of doing things, and have themselves often used technology and analytics-driven methods to accomplish business success. They are therefore prone to wanting to apply those ideas to football. Sometimes this translates, sometimes it doesn’t. However, it lends itself to the idea that intelligence can be gathered without the human element. This is exacerbated by the distinctly “human” aspect of scouting. Football evaluation has never been solely about what happens between the lines; injuries, personalities, the money involved in the game and other factors greatly impact a player’s NFL success. New-guard owners are also more prone to looking at their teams as a form of entertainment more so than a sport. A sport imparts values and a culture, whereas forms of entertainment are eminently disposable and agnostic.
  • While all of this was happening, fantasy football was taking off across the sports landscape, giving rank-and-file fans a taste of team-building. Simultaneously, colleges were rolling out sport management programs to capitalize on this, promising undergrads a chance to live their dreams of working in pro sports. This led to a swell of candidates looking to break into the industry. Anyone on Twitter can sift through and find hundreds, if not thousands, of aspiring scouts and evaluators. Just check their bios.

Bottom line, you have a business model where success is hard to measure, with people at the top of the pyramid lacking experience in hiring, and thousands of young professionals — many of them very talented — aiming to get in. Simultaneously, owners and executives are under relentless pressure from the media and social media on how to do things. It makes for a difficult path to getting hired. Good luck.

A Few Things to Remember During ‘Scout Jobs Season’

06 Friday May 2022

Posted by itlneil in NFL draft, Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

If you follow me on Twitter, and you’re new, welcome! I’m glad you’re here. 

Anyway, you might have started following ITL due to the scouting news we’ve posted over the past week, and there’s more where that came from. At the same time, there are a few things you need to know that might make the next few weeks a little smoother, especially if your favorite team pops up in one of my tweets.

Changes announced this week have been in the works for weeks, maybe months: I bumped into one of the scouts released this week last fall, at a college football game. He told me then he would probably be out right after the draft. It had nothing to do with his performance, by the way. It was something else entirely, which brings me to my next point.

Scout terminations, more often than not, are related to relationships, not performance: Partly because scouting is so subjective, it’s very hard to measure a scout’s effectiveness. That leads to scouts and executives being hired and fired primarily due to their relationships with the GM or others in leadership positions. 

Scouts usually work on two-year contracts: That’s why, sometimes, a new GM will come in and not make many (or any) changes. If all or most of his scouts have a year left on their deals, they might as well spend the year and see who’s good and not so good, then release them with no further obligations. 

It takes a while for a scouting department to come together: Scouting departments are a little like an offensive line. They take a little while to mesh, especially if they are working for a first-time GM. This time next year, you might be really, really excited about the players your favorite team has picked. On the other hand, maybe you won’t. If you aren’t, be patient. Things will probably improve. 

A good QB can really cover for a struggling scouting staff (and a bad one can mask a good scouting staff): Going back the last 10 years, the Patriots didn’t pick in the first round four seasons (2013, 2016, 2017 and 2020), and none of their six picks have gone to the Pro Bowl (according to Wikipedia). It’s been a bit of a rough patch, but because their QBs have been Brady and Jones, they’ve remained a pretty successful franchise. Bottom line, your team’s scouts are probably not as bad (or as good) as you think they are. 

At the end of the day, getting to understand why some teams draft well and others don’t takes time. If you’d rather learn more, I recommend my book, Scout Speak, which is loaded with war stories, insights and weighty quotes from dozens of scouts, active and former. It’s a quick read and, I think, a fun one, too. It’s also under $13. Check it out. If you’re not a big reader, it’s also available on Audible.

Still not sold? Register for our newsletter, the Friday Wrap. It’s free, and chock full of information on scouts, agents and the business of football. I think you’ll like it.

 

 

A Look at the Saints’ Draft: Ex-Giants/Bears Exec Greg Gabriel

27 Wednesday Apr 2022

Posted by itlneil in NFL draft, Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

This week, with the NFL Draft starting Thursday night, I thought it would be fun to ask three of my friends who used to run teams’ drafts to tell me how they’d approach the draft for one specific team. I asked them to look at the Saints, who are in an interesting position with plenty of needs and decent draft capital. After we led off the week with former Jets Director of College Scouting Jeff Bauer Tuesday, we continue with former Giants and Bears executive Greg Gabriel.

Before we even begin to look at what the Saints do, let’s look at the draft as a whole. I have been involved in the NFL Draft as a scout, scouting director, consultant or media member going back 40 years to 1982. I can honestly say that this is one of the most unique drafts I have ever seen. Why unique? Because there is no consensus anywhere in the draft, from the first pick on down.

We could go through every position and probably none of the 32 clubs would agree on even the order of the top five players in each group. I talk to people in the league daily and this is the one thing that stands out. Though it’s impossible, it would be fun to get the 32 NFL clubs to give us their top 32 players in order. I guarantee there would be about 42-45 different names, and it would be hilarious seeing the difference in how players are rated. That’s what makes the evaluation business so unique. We also have to look at the fact that each club has a different view as to what they look for at each position. 

In my estimation, the Saints need to come away with a tackle, wide receiver and quarterback with their first three picks.

Offensive tackle

The Saints are in a good situation with two picks in the middle of the first (Nos. 16 and 19) and a pick in the middle of the second round (No. 49). In my opinion, after losing OT Terron Armstead in free agency, they have to select a left tackle early, i.e., either at 16 or 19. The first round-caliber offensive tackles are very good, led by Alabama’s Evan Neal and NC State’s Ikem Ekwonu. The others well worth being selected in the first round are Mississippi State’s Charles Cross, Northern Iowa’s Trevor Penning and Central Michigan’s Bernhard Raimann. Neal, Ekwonu and Cross will all be gone by the time the Saints pick at 16, but there is a chance Penning could still be there. If it was me, and Penning was available, it wouldn’t take me long to get the card turned in. Of course, it’s no sure thing Penning is available and the Saints may want to trade up a few slots to assure themselves of getting him. That scenario would be discussed in pre-draft meetings this week.

Wide receiver

If Penning is gone, 16 may be a bit too high for Raimann, but 19 would be ideal. If that’s the case, what do the Saints do at 16? Well, wide receiver is also a need. The Saints have a great receiver in oft-injured Michael Thomas and a solid compliment in Tre’Quan Smith. What they don’t have is a receiver who can take the top off the defense, and this draft has several receivers who can do that. Many should be available at 16.

One of the top names is Alabama’s Jameson Williams, who is the “burner”-type receiver the Saints need. The problem with Williams is he’s coming off ACL surgery and probably won’t be ready to play until midseason at best. Do the Saints pull the trigger on Williams, knowing he will miss time? That is a decision that only GM Mickey Loomis can make. Luckily for the Saints, there are other speed receivers in this draft that could be there in the middle of the first round. They include two from Ohio State in Chris Olave, who is a 4.38 guy, and teammate Garrett Wilson, who has similar speed. The other speed receiver who could be available at that point of the draft is Penn State’s Jahan Dotson, a 4.43 guy. Any of these three would upgrade the Saints’ receiver corps dramatically.

Quarterback

The quarterback position is also a question mark. With future hall of fame Drew Brees retired, Jameis Winston is the heir apparent, but is Jameis really the guy? The Saints signed former Bear, Cowboy and Bengal Andy Dalton during free agency, but at this point of his career, Dalton is an ideal backup, not a starter. 

The quarterback class in 2022 is not ideal. There are some good players, but no prospects like last year, when five quarterbacks were drafted in the top 15 picks. This year, like at every other position, there is no consensus No. 1 QB. Some may say the best quarterback prospect is Liberty’s Malik Willis, while others may say it’s Pitt’s Kenny Pickett and others Ole Miss’s Matt Corral or Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder. When there is no consensus, it’s hard to know who’s right. We won’t know the answer for several years, but each GM selecting a QB hopes that he got the right one, obviously.

While it may be risky for the Saints to select a QB in the opening round, it’s not out of the question. As I write this, the chances are very good that only one QB will be selected before the Saints pick at 16. The big question is, how highly rated are the top QBs in the eyes of Assistant GM Jeff Ireland and his staff? Is there one worthy of being selected in the middle of the first round?

If the Saints do in fact select a quarterback, and, say, an offensive tackle with their other first round pick, they could easily get a very good speed receiver in the second round. Burners like Cincinnati’s Alec Pierce, Western Michigan’s Skyy Moore, Memphis’ Calvin Austin and South Alabama’s Jalen Tolbert may still be available come pick No. 49.

One thing is certain: regardless of what direction the Saints decided to go, it will make for drama and a fun viewing Thursday and Friday night. 

A Look at the Saints’ Draft: Ex-Jets Exec Jeff Bauer

26 Tuesday Apr 2022

Posted by itlneil in NFL draft, Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

This week, with the NFL Draft starting Thursday night, I thought it would be fun to ask three of my friends who used to run teams’ drafts to tell me how they’d approach the draft for one specific team. I asked them to look at the Saints, who are in an interesting position with plenty of needs and decent draft capital. We lead off the week with former Jets Director of College Scouting Jeff Bauer.

When your team finishes No. 32 (dead last) in passing, 30th in third-down conversions, 28th in total yards per game and 28th in average yards per rush (3.9), it’s no secret where your focus should be. Fortunately for the Saints, they are in position to get some much-needed help.

With the Nos. 16 and 19 picks in the opening round, along with No. 49 (the 17th pick in the second round), they’ve got some ammo. I believe that with those three picks, they’d love to get three players from four positions: quarterback, wide receiver, offensive tackle and tight end (though maybe not in that order).

The Saints will be tempted to draft a QB at 16 or 19, but I don’t see the value there. Willis is the only QB that I feel warrants a top-half-of-first-round grade, Pitt’s Kenny Pickett, Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder, Ole Miss’ Matt Corral and North Carolina’s Sam Howell all should be there, but I feel any of them would be a big stretch that early. Our rule for the top half of the first round was that any pick would have to be an immediate starter who could develop into a highly productive NFL player. All those QBs have concerns, in my eyes, except for Willis, and even Willis has some questions.

So what should the Saints do at 16 and 19? The best value very well could be at tackle and wide receiver, two positions of need for the Saints. I see no way that Alabama’s Evan Neal or NC State’s Ikem Ekwonu make it to 16, and I would be shocked to see Mississippi State’s Charles Cross make it there, but if he does, it would be a great get. The other tackle I think the Saints would love at 16 would be Northern Iowa’s Trevor Penning, a dominant, nasty guy at the Senior Bowl. If the Saints can walk away with either of these tackles at 16, that’s a major success.

With the other pick, the Saints could find good value at receiver. Alabama’s Jameson Williams was my top guy at that position prior to his ACL injury. While that’s a serious injury, today’s doctors do marvelous jobs with knees today. He might be restricted early, but to get this talent in the late teens is a no-brainer. If the team goes in a different direction, Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson, USC’s Drake London, Arkansas’ Treylon Burks and Ohio State’s Chris Olave all have value in that area. I also like Georgia’s George Pickens, maybe more than others. He’s physical and strong with great length, and has all the tools, but was a victim of a run-first offense and a limited quarterback while in Athens.

With the Saints’ second-round pick, the team could look at quarterback if any of those listed early fall to that spot. However, another player to watch would be Colorado State’s Trey McBride, who is, in my mind, the top tight end in the draft. Given that New Orleans would walk away with a top offensive tackle, a top-flight wide receiver and a three-down tight end, that would change the team’s offense immediately.

Wednesday: Former Giants and Bears executive Greg Gabriel

Reviewing Recent Pre-Combine Mock Drafts

25 Friday Feb 2022

Posted by itlneil in NFL draft

≈ Leave a comment

As you know, we look at the work of seven established draft services periodically over the year leading to draft weekend, and we’ve done this since the 2018 NFL Draft. Today, we posted our usual pre-combine mock draft snapshot, and I thought it would be fun to see how close the mock drafters got to reality on some of their pre-combine projections over the last three years. Here’s what I found.

  • Unlike many previous drafts, there’s a lot of solidarity on who the first-rounders are this year, especially this early. Twenty players are rated as Day 1 picks by all seven services. By way of comparison, at this stage, there were 17 last year (only Notre Dame OB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah fell to Day 2), just 15 in 2020 (all 15 went in the first 32 picks) and 16 in 2019 (Florida OT Jawaan Taylor, LSU DC Greedy Williams, Florida DE Jachai Polite and Washington DC Byron Murphy all fell to Day 2).
  • At this stage in 2021, all seven draft services correctly predicted that Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence would be the top pick (duh). The same was true in 2020 (LSU’s Joe Burrow), another year when there was a clear blue-chip QB prospect. However, in 2019, the draft services said Ohio State DE Nick Bosa would be the top pick (six of seven services had him at No. 1), and the only outlier, PFN’s Tony Pauline, had Alabama DT Quinnen Williams first overall. As you know, Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray ultimately went first; at the time, however, he was No. 14 on average. Matt Miller, then with Bleacher Report, had him highest at No. 7, while Sports Illustrated was least-sold on Murray at the time, placing him at 27. 
  • The players that narrowly missed being unanimous first-rounders mostly wound up in the first round anyway — in 2021. Last year, Georgia OB Azeez Ojulari, Northwestern OT Rashawn Slater, USC OG Alijah Vera-Tucker and Miami (FL) DE Jaelan Phillips were on just six boards, but only Ojulari got snubbed. However, lack of unanimity was telling in 2020. That year, the just-missed group included LSU DC Kristian Fulton, Iowa DE A.J. Epenesa, Louisville OT Mekhi Becton, Clemson WO Tee Higgins, Alabama WO Henry Ruggs and LSU DE K’Lavon Chaisson. Fulton, Epenesa and Higgins all had to wait ’til Friday to hear their names called.
  • Hats off to ESPN’s Todd McShay and The Draft Scout’s Miller who each had Washington DE Joe Tryon at the end of the first round entering the draft last year; he wound up going No. 32 to Tampa Bay. In 2020, only Pro Football Network’s Tony Pauline had Ohio St. DC Damon Arnette in the first round at this stage; Pauline slotted him at 25, very close to his selection at 19 by the Raiders. Kudos also go out to McShay for being the only prognosticator to have Auburn DC Noah Igbinoghene in the first 32 (he went No. 30 to the Dolphins), and Walter Football for placing TCU WO Jalen Reagor at 22, the only service to have him on Day 1. He went 21 to the Eagles. Walter also nailed Mississippi St. FS Jonathan Abram with a direct hit in the first round in 2019; no other service had Abram on Day 1, but he went 27 to the Raiders. 

We’ve got plenty more to say about what the draft services say about this year’s draft. Join us for today’s Friday Wrap, which comes out at 7:30 p.m. ET, to dig into the first 32 projected picks even more. If you haven’t already, register for the Wrap here. You can also check out the entire grid featuring all seven services and their picks for the first round pre-combine at the mother ship.

Archives

Inside the League

Inside the League

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.

Privacy & Cookies: This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this website, you agree to their use.
To find out more, including how to control cookies, see here: Cookie Policy
  • Follow Following
    • Succeed in Football
    • Join 72 other followers
    • Already have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.
    • Succeed in Football
    • Customize
    • Follow Following
    • Sign up
    • Log in
    • Report this content
    • View site in Reader
    • Manage subscriptions
    • Collapse this bar