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Five More Minority GM Candidates To Know

11 Friday Dec 2020

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To date, there are four GM openings in the league. If you’re interested in finding out who the hot candidates are to fill these positions, there are many places to find them. Dan Hatman of The Scouting Academy does a great job of providing a full inventory of top candidates here. However, there are more.

My goal today is to provide some outside the outside-the-box candidates, impressive people who were not only not on Dan’s list, but also not on the controversial list of top minority candidates distributed by the NFL to the media last week (which had several glaring omissions). These are five top minority candidates that were not listed by Dan or in the league document, presented alphabetically.

  • Mike Martin, College Scout, Panthers: Martin is just an area scout right now, but he was the assistant college director with the Texans before the team cleaned house after a GM change. Vanderbilt-educated, his most impressive trait is his even temperament. He’s got an extensive network in the Southeast, too, which doesn’t hurt. 
  • Sam Seale, National Scout, Packers: Seale’s problem is that he’s on the wrong side of 50, which makes him decidedly non-sexy. However, he’s got decades with one of the best organizations, and if I’m hiring someone to run my organization, he has to know talent. One scout I talk to always raves about Seale’s ability to evaluate.
  • Jamaal Stephenson, Director of College Scouting, Vikings: It boggles my mind that Stephenson doesn’t get more exposure. He’s got director-level experience, he’s Brown-educated, and has spent more than a decade with one of the NFL’s best GMs, Rick Spielman. 
  • Sam Summerville, Area Scout, Bears: Everyone loves to trash the Bears for the quarterback they drafted and the two they didn’t draft, but don’t pin that on Summerville. He’s got experience with multiple organizations, he’s got pro and college experience, and he’s always looking to challenge himself and grow. 
  • Richmond Williams, Director of Pro Personnel, Packers: Whenever I talk to scouts and evaluators about who impresses them, they always mention Williams. He’s another evaluator with extensive pro and college experience, and his steady climb through a top organization speaks for itself.

Keep in mind that I don’t write this to simply canvas the league and name everyone who wasn’t on either list. These are people of respect that have the pedigree and the body of work that warrants their consideration for a top post, and I’m confident they’ll get that eventually. Their problem right now is they aren’t “hot,” i.e., don’t come from the right organizations, or maybe they’re still a little underdeveloped and their time(s) have not come. But they will.

Make sure to check out this week’s Friday Wrap as we discuss several big questions on the lips of scouts, directors, agents and college personnel that must be answered soon. Register for it here.

Ask the NFL Scout: Six Things From Ahmad Russell (ex-Colts)

30 Friday Oct 2020

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Thursday night, we had the third in our four-part Zoom series with former NFL scouts and executives. Our guest was former Colts area scout Ahmad Russell, who also spent several years with the Eagles.

Here are a few things I learned from his nearly 90-minute session.

  • Scouts come from all kinds of places, but Ahmad’s story is unique. After he didn’t get any satisfactory job offers out of college and didn’t get any camp offers (he played at Colgate), he opted to to go Japan and teach. That was in August of 2001, but his 9/11 experience is another story. While in Japan, he began playing fantasy basketball, which piqued his interest in scouting and evaluation. So he went online and scanned every scout and executive bio in the NFL, noticing that several got their master’s from the UMass sport management program, so he applied (from Japan). Once he got accepted, he heavily mined the UMass network until, upon completion of his master’s, he got three NFL offers. He chose the Eagles, partially because of their success and partially because of their proximity.
  • Ahmad has several insights about the GMs and future GMs he worked with (including Howie Roseman, Chris Ballard, Jason Licht and Ryan Grigson). His insights were too many to detail here, but one thing stuck out in my mind. Ahmad said he befriended the Eagles GM during Roseman’s days as the team counsel, so when Roseman began to have a larger profile on the evaluation side, Ahmad already had a relationship with him. That was beneficial for a number of reasons. I respect Ahmad for having time for Roseman before he was part of his chain of command. Never forget: it’s a relationship business.
  • We’ve been discussing the 2016 draft each week, and it’s been really illuminating. For example, say what you will about how teams value triangle numbers vs. film, but Ahmad was the latest scout to cite speed in explaining why Ohio State WO Michael Thomas fell to the second round. He likewise pointed to speed in why Baylor WO Corey Coleman was the first receiver off the board. As you know, Coleman is no longer in the league. Speed is sexy, and scouts are human. That’s all there is to it.
  • Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is known as a high-character player and a leader of men, but Ahmad may deserve some of the credit. He told the story of when he interviewed Prescott at the Senior Bowl and confronted him about several off-field issues that surfaced during the evaluation phase. Ahmad even said he called Prescott a “thug” in the interview session. To Prescott’s credit, he took the hard conversation to heart, and the results have been clear.
  • Ahmad is the first scout to cop to his team trying to move up to take Ole Miss OT Laremy Tunsil during his famous slide. He said he recalls trying to strike a deal with the Saints, who picked 12. When the teams couldn’t strike a deal, the Dolphins moved up to 13 by trading with the Eagles.
  • Due to his domestic assault charges, the Colts had taken West Alabama WO Tyreek Hill completely off their board. He was a no-draft for Indy.

Next week, we conclude our series with former Raiders scout Raleigh McKenzie. It’s gonna be a blast. Want in? Click here. We’ve recorded all four of our sessions (ex-Rams scout Danton Barto in Week 1 and former Bills GM Doug Whaley in Week 2). If you’d like the first three videos and a chance to sit in next week, click here.

For more on the business of football, make sure to register for the Friday Wrap.

Ask the NFL GM: Eight Things I Learned from Doug Whaley’s Zoom Session

23 Friday Oct 2020

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Last week in this space, we discussed ITL’s Fourth Quarter series in which we bring in a former scout or NFL executive as our Zoom guest. Last week, it was former Rams area scout Danton Barto, who was excellent. Tonight, it was former Bills GM Doug Whaley, who was also outstanding.

Here are eight things I found interesting in Doug’s session.

  • Doug graduated from Pitt and immediately took a job in the investment business as a trader in New York, but after getting an offer to intern for the Steelers, he passed it up immediately and returned to Pittsburgh. That’s the kind of passion you have to have to succeed in football — the willingness to pass up a job that could be incredibly lucrative to chase an opportunity that could be lucrative, but that comes with no guarantees.
  • When Doug interviews a scout for a job, he doesn’t want to know about the scout’s successes. He wants to hear about the prospects the scout missed on, because everybody misses. It’s learning and figuring out why you missed that shows that you have a passion for the business and an interest in getting better.
  • When I asked Doug what he would do differently in his next GM job, he said, and I’m paraphrasing, that he’ll sacrifice talent for fit. He said that in Buffalo, he only wanted the very best player he could find, but he said that it’s better to take the best player that makes sense in your system and locker room.
  • Doug is a strong believer in mentors, and he has two: legendary Steelers scout Bill Nunn and former NFL executive Charles Bailey, who’s been with the Steelers, Saints and Jaguars as well as the XFL. Doug, in turn, has three mentees.
  • We’ve been asking scouts about their experiences and insights into the 2016 NFL Draft, and Doug was asked if allegations that Ole Miss OT Laremy Tunsil had received improper payments hurt the team’s evaluation of him. Doug said that, due partially to the NCAA’s antiquated rules, he wouldn’t necessarily fault Tunsil for such payments. What would hurt him, instead, is if, years later, Tunsil divulged it to the media. That would be a red flag.
  • Why isn’t Derrick Henry a Bill? Doug said they knew he would be a power back who’s not given to making people miss. They observed that while he’s a big guy from the waist up, Buffalo’s braintrust didn’t think he was thick enough through the legs to be effective on the NFL level, or at least, to have lasting success.
  • What about Tyreek Hill? The Bills had extensive communication with people around the West Alabama program, and had taken him completely off the board due to the domestic abuse charges that have since come to light. Doug said it was a particularly sensitive area for the team given that the team’s co-owner, Kim Pegula, is a woman.
  • Given the chance, would the Bills have taken North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz or Cal’s Jared Goff? Doug said that Wentz was one of their top 10 players rated in the draft, but Goff was not. Why? They didn’t think his arm and relative lack of size and frame would play well in Buffalo winds and weather.

Next week, we’ll host former Colts scout Ahmad Russell, and I can hardly wait. We’ve got room for a few more people to listen in, so if you’re interested, hit me up here. Just $9. DMs are open. Hope you can make it.

Want more details? Check out the Friday Wrap which comes out tomorrow evening. You can register for it here.

2016 NFL Draft: Breaking It Down with Blake Next Tuesday

15 Tuesday Sep 2020

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If this isn’t your first time reading my blog, you already know I recently wrote a book about the NFL scouting business called Scout Speak. However, you may not know what we’ve got going on a week from today for everyone who’s bought a copy and tweeted about it (more on that later).

Tuesday night at 8 p.m. EST, my friend Blake Beddingfield, former Director of College Scouting for the Titans, will join me and everyone who tweets a picture of their copy of Scout Speak and includes the hashtag #ScoutSpeak before Monday on a Zoom call. It takes five years to properly judge a draft class, right? Well, on Tuesday, we’ll talk about the 2016 draft, one in which Blake (and the Titans) figured prominently.

Let’s set the scene. The team was coming off a 3-13 record in QB Marcus Mariota’s first season as a starter and had elevated Mike Mularkey from interim to full-time head coach. The team was lacking in playmakers on offense and wanted to go to more of a power offense. Meanwhile, on defense, the pass rush was solid with Brian Orakpo and Jurrell Casey but looking for talent in the secondary.

Here’s a rundown of the questions Blake will address.

  • The draft had franchise QBs at the top two picks and an impact defensive end at No. 3, plus several big stars sprinkled throughout Round 1. Who were the top five players on the Titans’ board, regardless of position?
  • The 2016 draft was a big one for passers. Given that you were in Year 2 with Marcus Mariota, how did you size up the quarterbacks that year?
  • No one who watched the draft will forget 12 teams passing on Ole Miss OT Laremy Tunsil after an embarrassing video of him surfaced immediately before the draft. How could one quick video have resulted in so many teams passing up the best left tackle in the draft? Did the Titans really have Michigan State’s Jack Conklin, whom they drafted at 8, higher than Tunsil? How could the fear of facing an uncomfortable press conference have scared so many teams off the No. 1 blindside protector in the draft? Is there something teams knew that fans and the media didn’t.
  • The Titans selected Clemson OB Kevin Dodd with the first pick of the second round. He had one sack in his two NFL seasons. What went wrong?
  • Tennessee drafted Alabama OH Derrick Henry midway through the second round when the popular narrative was that running backs were mostly interchangeable. What prompted you to ignore the narrative and take him? How close did you come to taking him higher? Lower?
  • There were several great safeties in the 2016 draft (Florida’s Keanu Neal, Maryland’s Sean Davis and Ohio State’s Vonn Bell among them), but you might have gotten the best one in Middle Tennessee’s Kevin Byard at 64. Was he your No. 1 safety?
  • One of the most exciting players in the game, Saints QB Taysom Hill, went undrafted. What was “the book” on Hill that resulted in Kevin Hogan, Brandon Doughty and Jeff Driskel getting drafted but not Hill?
  • What was “the book” on Ohio State’s Michael Thomas that prompted five wide receivers — most of whom are now out of the league — to be drafted before the Saints selected him in the second round?
  • Who is the player you nearly took, but didn’t, and regret the most?
  • Did you have any “now it can be told” interviews or experiences during pro days or Top 30 visits that spring?

I can’t wait till Tuesday. It’s gonna be a blast! If you haven’t already, make sure you pick up your copy of Scout Speak and tweet a picture of it with the #ScoutSpeak hashtag (like this one) by Sunday night. I want you on this Zoom call. Hope to see you soon!

2021 NFL Draft: What’s the Market Package for a Player Opting Out?

02 Wednesday Sep 2020

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I’m getting a lot of questions about how much to spend on players who choose to opt out of the 2020 fall football season. Rather than answer every question individually, I thought I’d break it all out in a blog post.

Understand that these are best guesses based on what I’ve heard of the packages so far. These numbers are liable to move as more and more opt out and the market comes to balance.

First half of first round (1-20): Based on what scouts have told me, these are the players that probably can safely opt out. That means their market probably doesn’t slide much.

  • Estimated stipend/marketing guarantee and per diem: Depending on how close they are to No. 1, you’re looking at $7,000-$8,000 per month through the draft and a marketing guarantee that’s in the $150,000-$300,000 range.
  • Also: Training of player’s choice (probably about $30,000 all in, maybe $10,000 higher if he starts training now), rental car, housing, etc.

Late first to early second (21-50): These are the names you’re seeing populate multiple mock drafts in the 15-32 range. Some of these players will slide, but they seem safe to fall no farther than the end of Day 2.

  • Estimated stipend/marketing guarantee and per diem: I’ve heard of some hefty marketing guarantees for players in this range already, but it’s risky. I’d say you’re safest in the $50,000-$30,000 range. As far as stipend, probably around $5,000/month through the draft should get it done.
  • Also: Same as above on training and other amenities.

Late second to end of third: This is a tricky area, because players will think they can opt out and maybe slide into first-round territory, when really they’re in danger of sliding into Day 3. If you’re an agent, that’s not an easy message to convey.

  • Estimated stipend/marketing guarantee and per diem: You’re in trouble if you overpay on per diem for eight months here. My guess is you want to stay in the same range that you would have paid for four months ($20,000-$25,000), but spread it over eight. You probably want to stay south of $4,000/month here. Marketing guarantee would have to be no more than $10,000-$15,000, depending on how high you have to go on the per diem. You’ll get that back on the trading card deal anyway, presuming he doesn’t have a marketing guy.
  • Also: Same as above on training and other amenities, but maybe you can get away with a slightly smaller package for a player at a non-sexy position (interior o-line, inside linebacker, maybe safety). But probably not.

Bubble Day 3/ to end of fifth round: This is where you’re hoping you can show the player a nice training package and that’s enough. Stipends have to be in the $1,500/month area, no more than $2,000/month through the draft. These are the players that are really in danger of falling out of the draft if they’re not playing.

  • Estimated stipend/marketing guarantee and per diem: You have to have a Day 3 mindset for these players. Stipend/MG has to be $10,000 or less. Per diem can’t be over $1,500/month thru draft or you’re really gambling.
  • Also: This is where you push your trainer who’ll make you a deal, or maybe who is really aching to train a guy who could go Day 2. If you’re lucky, you stash the kid at a trainer who’s not in the Sun Belt, which also saves you money. The problem is that it’s gonna be hard to talk him out of the blue-chip training facilities, and if you have to go $30,000 to train him, you gotta make cuts elsewhere. This is where the middle-class agencies are hitting the rocks these days.

I wouldn’t recommend signing anyone rated below third round who’s opting out. Anyone below here is more likely to fall out of the draft than to “fall upward.” It’s out of sight, out of mind in the NFL.

We’ll discuss this more in this week’s Friday Wrap. You can register for it here.

 

How Many NFL Draft Prospects Could Skip ’20 With No Ill Effects?

17 Friday Jul 2020

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As thunder clouds gather on the college football horizon, the fall season seems to be in growing jeopardy. One option seems to be moving play into the spring, when presumably players, coaches and schools would find a safer playing field. If it happens,  it’s almost a certainty a large number of top players will choose not to play and to move straight to the NFL Draft, presuming it remains an April 2021 affair.

All of which begs this question: how many elite prospects, from seniors to redshirt sophomores, could reasonably skip their last seasons of play without damaging their respective draft statuses? 

We asked scouts, agents and all-star game directors that we respect across the game. These are the answers we got.

  • “I would expect 10-20 guys. I think there will absolutely be some of the top guys. I think agents are going to get in their ear too. . . I think some will absolutely opt out, but there is still going to be pressure from teammates to play the season and rep the program. It’ll be interesting.”
  • “Probably 40 or so. Damn good players, locks to go no later than Round 2 if they’ve already played their last down. They’ve already played their last game.”
  • “15-20.”
  • “Maybe 20-30. But there will be hundreds who believe that they’ll be impacted and decide to jump.” 
  • “Heading into the season, I would think it would be closer to 30 kids who have done enough to solidify their draft position off their body of work, but the vast majority of guys need additional verification or opportunity to rise. The preseason lists are full of hyped seniors who go on to become low free agents after being exposed, as a warning.”
  • “Too many unanswerable questions right now. SEC is a mess and not even going to visit on protocol again until (July 28), I hear. Too many “hot spots” around the country to make general rules, and regular kids not even back on campus yet, if they’ll be allowed at all!”

The consensus seems to be 20-30 players, i.e., most of the first round. Of course, trying to guess how many players in total will opt out is almost impossible, and could easily range into the hundreds.

Give us your best guess on Twitter, and later today, find out who we think the 20-30 players are that might be able to go from the 2019 season to the 2021 draft with no ill effects. It will be in today’s Friday Wrap, and you can register for it here.

 

The Modern GM and the Media: Our Session with former NFL Coms Director Fitz Ollison

03 Friday Jul 2020

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If you read our weekly Friday Wrap, which comes out this evening, you know we had a Zoom professional development session Wednesday with former NFL PR man Fitz Ollison, who’s run the media side for the Saints, Dolphins, Lions and Broncos as well as the Alliance of American Football during its brief run.

Fitz was brilliant, and he spoke to a handful of college directors and scouts about the value of having a good director of communications that you can really rely on as GM. I wish we could have had him on for a full week of hour-long sessions, but that would have been selfish. Instead, here are a few gems from the two hours he spent with us this week:

  • “National (media personalities) are really popular. They have 100,000 Twitter followers, they show up on TV and on Instagram, they are high-profile and get paid a lot of money, and owners listen to these guys. At owners meetings, they bring in national guys and owners like to talk to them. Most owners get their info from owners, and vice versa. (Game) broadcasters benefit (scouts and executives) the most. They understand the game and they know who’s good and bad. They will usually get consulted during the head coach and GM searches.”
  • “PR has been a throwaway in the past. It’s not anymore. It’s becoming a vitally important aspect because everything you say and do and every interaction is going to be recorded or reported. You’re a celebrity when you become a personnel guy.”
  • “You want a grenade-jumper, someone who is loyal to you. You gotta have a guy you can trust who can tell you when you screwed up. . . A lot of owners, I’ve been in rooms where the owner said, ‘I like my (PR) guy. You’ll learn to like him.’ But if he doesn’t have your back, 100 percent, something could get through. . . If there’s a guy who can help you in terms of media and PR, being on your staff, a loyal guy, get him any way you can.”
  • “A lot of people don’t understand the mentality of a billionaire. They don’t deal in the everyday nuances that we deal in. They don’t deal in wants and needs. NFL owners deal in ‘give me’s and ‘get me’s. ‘Give me this’ and ‘get me that.’ And they don’t care. In the grand scheme, for 95 percent of them, they made their money not by being a nice guy. These guys are ruthless businessmen.”
  • “When you’re on the road, look at the news of the day and how you would answer the questions that pertain to that. I always feel it’s a disservice that, the moment you become GM, they want to throw you in front of the media. You have to practice it. How would you handle it? Always use the opportunity for other people’s news to benefit your own news. Whatever you do, just be reminded that in this day and age, it lasts forever.”

We’ll talk more about Fitz’s work with us in today’s Friday Wrap. Make sure to register for it if you haven’t already.

A Few Thoughts on our NFL GM Prospects List

11 Thursday Jun 2020

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This week, I’ve been talking to several of my friends in the industry about the best GM candidates in the game. My goal was (and is) to put together a list that isn’t agent- and/or media-driven. In other words, I don’t want the guys that are photogenic and have good bloodlines, per se, or simply the “next up” guys from winning organizations. I’m looking for guys who are less about politics and more about grinding. At least, that’s my aim.

Here are a few thoughts gathered from talking to people this week.

  • It was really, really hard to get a consensus. I started off wanting a list of 10 candidates, but struggled to get 5-6 that were on several lists. I attribute that to the nature of the business. Most scouts tend to work in one or two organizations, so they don’t get to see many people truly work. In addition, the very nature of the business lends itself to secrecy, so it’s easy to get in a silo and stay there.
  • As a matter of fact, I had a lot of friends who were very careful about even giving their opinion on GM possibilities. No one wants their bosses to even think in terms of advancement. Next week, we’ll be hosting the ITL GM Academy with four ex-GMs, and similarly, our attendees don’t want anyone to know they are trying to grow and develop themselves, which to me is kinda crazy. The “keep your head down and grind” philosophy is alive and well.
  • As I was compiling the list, one thing came through loud and clear: when a scout would give me a name, he’d almost always talk about how much he likes the guy, how he has a great personality. We’ve all heard about how fiery and tough “Battlin” Bill Polian, one of the truly great GMs in the game, was during his career. I think today’s scouts and executives want to work with someone they can relate to, rather than be subservient to.
  • I worked hard to get perspectives from guys on the pro side, but most of them recommended guys with strong college backgrounds. It’s interesting. I guess scouts  will always see the draft as the wellspring of team-building.
  • On that topic, one scout I trust opened my eyes to something I’d seen, but never really noticed. When you sift through the names of college and pro scouting directors, it’s striking how many more pro directors are black than on the college side. It’s easy to see why — pro directors have to be a bit more persuasive, almost have a recruiting side to them. To me, this is a clear focus of attention as we try to remove obstacles in the path to the GM seat for minority candidates. I’ve seen a lot more movement toward the pro side for scouts with college backgrounds; maybe this will help break down these walls.
  • I’m sure tomorrow’s list will be controversial because we’ll have a few outside-the-box names, and won’t have some of the names you typically see on these lists. Please re-read this if you take issue with tomorrow’s newsletter: JUST BECAUSE A NAME ISN’T ON OUR LIST TOMORROW DOESN’T MEAN HE’S NOT A GREAT CANDIDATE. I’m just trying to present the people rank-and-file scouts and executives that I speak to know and trust. It’s one snapshot of many.

Anyway, we’ll have 6-7 guys whose names you’ll probably know if you read this blog regularly in tomorrow’s Friday Wrap, though they may differ greatly from the names you most often see. I hope it will be fun and provocative. Make sure you don’t miss it by registering here.

The 2020 NFL Draft Class, by the Numbers: A Few Observations

15 Friday May 2020

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This week, we looked at all the players signed with agents for the 2020 NFL Draft, the number drafted and the total of undrafted free agents, all sorted by position. It’s here (pay link, sorry).

We’ve done this for the past six years, and it provides an interesting snapshot of the positions most in demand by NFL teams. If you’re just passing through for a look at the top mock drafts or a ranking of NFL GMs, I apologize in advance. Today is for agents, active and aspiring. I think it gives insights into who they should be recruiting in the modern game.

  • As usual, there were more wide receivers signed by agents (244) than any other position. It stands to reason; receivers are plentiful as well as popular in a pro game that’s committed to the pass. What’s more, their numbers are easy to track. On the other hand, receivers’ draft rate is annually around 10 percent, one of the lowest “hit rates” of all the positions. This year’s draft rate was highest ever at just under 15 percent, owing to the talent in the class, though the total number of signees was well below recent classes.
  • More on wide receivers: In the six years we’ve been tracking the numbers, this year’s total number of pass-catchers signed to SRAs is the lowest ever. The high-water mark? It was 2016, when 313 receivers signed with agents. We may never see that total again.
  • A cornerback’s plight is very similar to a wide receiver’s, i.e., lots and lots of them sign with agents, but opportunities are limited. Agents signed 190 corners, but only 28 were drafted and 53 signed as undrafted free agents. In total, 109 cornerbacks (more than half of all who were signed) are on the street mere weeks after draft day. In short, if you’re an agent and you want to maximize your chances on draft weekend, focus on the big slow guys and less on the sleek, sexy guys.
  • Though it’s not sexy, our numbers show, again, that it all starts up front. At only four positions — tight end, guard, tackle and defensive tackle — did better than half of all players signed to standard representation agreements get either drafted or signed as undrafted free agents.
  • Similarly, only four positions — center, guard, tackle and outside linebacker — saw more than 20 percent of all signees selected in the draft. The offensive line isn’t sexy, but if you’re an agent, that’s where the money is.
  • On the other hand, the most popular position immediately following the draft is tight end. A higher percentage of tight ends — just under 39 percent — signed post-draft than did players at any other position. Only two other positions (fullbacks and defensive tackles) signed UDFA contracts at a rate north of 30 percent.
  • it was a tough year to go undrafted. This year, 421 players signed UDFA deals. Last year, 497 signed, while another 522 players attended at least one rookie mini-camp on a tryout basis. With no rookie mini-camps this year, it doesn’t look like any players will get tryout opportunities this year.

To look at all the numbers this year (and since 2015), click here. For a review of what happened in the football business this week, click here. Thank you, as always, for reading.

Thinking Through A Few Corona-Related Football Issues

01 Friday May 2020

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Now that the draft is over, there’s been a kind of return to reality for those of us who work in football. It’s given me a chance to have plenty of conversations about the direction many things will take in the wake of the national quarantines. Here are my thoughts, and the thoughts I’ve gotten back from others, on where several issues stand.

  • Supplemental Draft: There’s been a lot of talk that the NFL may allow top NCAA players to enter the supplemental draft, but there are several problems with that. No. 1, traditionally, a player has to have a “change in status” before he’s allowed draft eligibility, and short of the NCAA cancelling the season, that’s not happening. What’s more, the NFL has always tried to forge a delicate balance with the NCAA, and if the league peeled off all of college football’s top players — just when all of college athletics needs football most — I could see teams shuttering their practices and offices to scouts entirely.
  • Rookie camps: I addressed this in Tuesday’s Rep Rumblings report, but bottom line, California and New York look like two states that are a long way from reopening, and for different reasons, the Saints and Jets won’t be having rookie camps (at least, traditional ones). That means six teams can’t have rookie camps and two more won’t. I don’t see the Competition Committee allowing anything that goes counter to a level playing field.
  • Name/Image/Likeness: There’s been a lot of discussion of the NIL issue as it moved farther along the course this week, and some are alarmed while others are celebratory. I almost see the changes as a benefit for the agent business because the one thing I hear from agents every day is that their clients expect them to pile up a mountain of marketing money as soon as they reach the NFL. By 2023, the Joe Burrows of the world — touchdown-scorers on major BCS programs — will make nice side money during their college days. The Mekhi Bectons and the Tristan Wirfs — super-talented players at non-sexy positions in non-sexy markets — will not. Maybe NFL players will have a better understanding of their relative marketability as a result of this.
  • Agencies: The draft gave a business-as-usual veneer to the NFL last week. However, I’ve had several conversations with contract advisors over the last 2-3 weeks, and they all say the same thing: we’re about to find out who really has resources and who doesn’t. My read is that the quarantine is going to heavily exacerbate the gap between the haves and the have-nots, most of whom needed rookie camps and OTAs to help their clients make rosters.
  • Combine prep facilities: I’ve seen two rather desperate Facebook posts this week from trainers who can’t reopen because their businesses have been deemed non-essential. I know agents hate to hear this, but most training facilities are run on rather narrow margins. I could see fewer combine prep facilities after all this is over. If fewer agencies are willing to pay for training next year, that could be a 1-2 punch.
  • Scouting changes: Normally by now, several teams have turned over their scouting staffs, or at least made a few cosmetic changes. Not so this year. So far, we’ve only seen one change, with maybe 1-2 more on the way. I’ve heard some teams have instituted hiring freezes, while others are probably leery of the media chiding them for making cuts during such an uncertain time.
  • NFL agent exam: At some point soon, we’re supposed to find out if the NFLPA will proceed with the agent exam, which is normally in July in Washington, D.C. This seems to be headed to some form of online testing. The NFLPA conducted a continuing education exam for veteran agents a couple years ago which was all online, so the template is already there. It would just mean the PA would have to move the attending pre-exam seminar online, as well.

We’ve got a long way to go before everything is worked out. Like everyone else, I’m hoping we’re not about to see seismic changes in college and NFL schedules, the agency landscape, scouting lineups and everything else associated with the football business.

As more issues crop up and there’s more clarity on some of these topics, we’ll address them. In the meantime, make sure you’re registered for our weekly newsletter, the Friday Wrap, to get a regular look at what’s going on in the business.