Here’s an interesting way to look at the trade the Eagles’ made with the Browns this week that you maybe haven’t seen in the media.
This time of year, especially when draft trades are made, you hear about the value points chart made by the Cowboys in the Jimmy Johnson years. However, you rarely see trades viewed through this prism, so let’s do that with the Eagles deal.
Let’s start with the Eagles. They get the No. 2 pick in the draft (2,600 points according to the chart) plus a fourth-rounder in ’17. More on that later.
The Browns got the No. 8 pick in the draft plus the No. 77 pick (a third-rounder) and the No. 100 pick (fourth round). According to the chart, that’s 1,605 points (1,400 points, 205 points and 100 points). They also get a first-rounder in ’17 and a second-rounder in ’18. So before we count the future picks, the Browns are ‘down’ about a thousand points.
Now let’s look to the future. We’ll put the best spin on things for the Eagles and say that the Browns pick first in 2017. We’ll also say the Eagles, loaded for bear with three talented passers and newly Chip-free, win the Super Bowl in ’17 and ’18. That means the Browns’ fourth-rounder is worth 112 points (give or take a few points based on the number of compensatory picks next year and a few other factors) and the last picks in the first round in ’17 and second round in ’18 are worth 590 and 270 points, respectively. If all these things happen — the Browns are the worst team in football in ’16 and the Eagles win consecutive Super Bowls — the Eagles win via the points total, but just barely at 2700-2565.
For what it’s worth, this is unlikely to happen, which means the Browns are likely to win the points total. Still, it’s close.
Of course, the question to ask is, do teams actually use this chart? I get different answers from scouts, but rarely hear chatter about it during draft week. I think most teams don’t total up the points because the media doesn’t — you will probably not read an analysis like this anywhere else on the Web — and therefore, teams don’t care. They don’t have to cover themselves by making the points work.
Anyway, just a little fun with numbers to kick off the less-than-one-week countdown to draft day. Have a great weekend.