Since 2017, we have tracked seven of the more established draft services as they’ve provided first-round projections in the months leading up to the end of April. It’s a fun exercise if you don’t take it too seriously (though I’ve had a key member of one front office tell me he uses it to make sure he’s not missing anyone).

At any rate, the accuracy and, really, the basic validity of draft experts and their mocks was called into question last spring when we all watched Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders go from a consensus top-10 pick to a Day 3 guy. All seven services we surveyed the week before the draft (sorry, pay link) had him going inside the first 21 picks, and four had him in the top 10 (two had him at No. 3, two had him at 9). Now those of us who know Tom Brady’s story (or, for that matter, the stories of Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott or Brock Purdy) also know that Day 3 selection is not an NFL death sentence. The point is, NFL decision-makers varied significantly with what the draft experts thought they thought last spring.

It’s with this in mind that I reached out to several friends in the league to get an in-season consensus on some of the players who were the top-rated prospects in our first way-too-early mock draft sweep in June (sorry, pay link again). In our first look at things, seven players — Ohio State’s Caleb Downs, Clemson’s T.J. Parker and Peter Woods, Alabama’s Kadyn Proctor, Texas’ Anthony Hill, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier and Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love — showed up on all seven mocks. Before I compiled the seven services’ mocks this time, I decided to ask around about two of the players that everyone agreed was a first-rounder, Downs and Nussmeier. What I found out fascinated me.

In some ways, Downs matches up with what the draft experts said in June: supremely talented guy from a blue-blood program who would be a difference-maker in any system. On the other hand, the teams I spoke to were pretty adamant that he’s not a No. 1 overall guy, and probably not a top-five guy, either, mainly because of the position he plays. They like him in the top 10, but he’s far from a guy who’ll be the top pick (as one service predicted in June) or the second (as two other services predicted). Still, the draft services positively nailed Downs compared to how far off they were on Nussmeier.

When I started asking around about the LSU passer, scouts’ the enthusiasm in scouts’ voices immediately waned. They said things like “entitled,” “average arm,” “coach’s kid but doesn’t act like one,” and things of that nature. Not one of the teams I spoke to even had him in the first round, much less No. 1 overall. I don’t want to be overly critical of him, and there’s still time for things to change, but he’s trending much closer to Shedeur than Cam Ward at this point.

Look, I don’t want to beat up on these services too much. Obviously, things are evolving, and even NFL scouts have changed their minds about things they thought they thought this summer. Still, if you read today’s Friday Wrap to get a sample of who’s in the first-round conversation (and I hope you do — register here if you don’t already receive it), have fun with it, but take it all with a generous grain of salt. That’s not just because it’s Oct. 3, but because there are still secrets teams keep from the draft services. And that’s OK.