49ers	Colts	Eagles	Ravens	Saints	NFL avg.
Scouting Assts	3	1	1	4	1	1.78
Combine Scout		1	1			0.43
Scouting Coordinator	1	1	1	1	1	1
Area Scouts	5	5	3	8	4	5.75
Reg/Nat/Exec/Cross/Sr	2	1	2	1	5	2.03
Directors/Asst Directors	2	2	5			1.72
VP/DPP/AGM	3	1	2	3	1	1.56
Pro Scouting Dept	5	4	3	1	4	3.06
Analytics Dept.	2	2	6	3	3	2.91
Total	21	18	24	20	19	20.3

Last week, in the Friday Wrap, we looked at how today’s NFL scouting departments are built. How many scouts usually make up the scouting department? How big is a typical analytics team? Is middle management a big part of most teams’ evaluation department? We presented all our numbers on our website.

That’s a pay link, so rather than snub all those people who aren’t our clients, we’ve presented five teams’ results above. We feel these are five of the better-drafting teams in the league; in fact, three of them (the Saints in ’17, the Colts in ’18 and the 49ers in ’19) won the Best Draft Award as voted on by NFL scouts.

We’ll be talking about commonalities and differences among the these five teams (and the nuances that don’t show up in a grid) Friday on SiriusXM NFL Radio channel 88 with Alex Marvez and Mark Dominik. I hope you can join us.

In the meantime, a few notes:

• Following modern trends, the 49ers have three at the VP level. The team is also mostly on trend for number of ‘reinforcements,’ i.e., scouting assistants, though the team’s pro personnel analysts are most likely on deck to plug in as area scouts, as well.

• The Colts have four members of their information systems department; we guessed that they were not in analytics, but more traditional infromation tech people instead. The team is also light on scouting assistants, though the team does have a football operations assistant (which we counted as a scouting assistant). Finally, though the team is light on analytics personnel, it’s believed to have a greater reliance on analytics (and successfully) than most teams.

• The Eagles are one of the teams that draw a bright line between football operations and scouting, but who include their analytics professionals in football operations (at least per their job titles). They have a significant analytics presence. The team also is light on area scouts, and clearly uses its directors and assistant directors to get out on the road, as well.

• The Ravens are another team that has two DPPs, plus a player personnel coordinator and a senior player personnel executive. This is why it’s fair to say the Ravens are one of the most committed teams when it comes to buildin through the draft, and they usually get results. We also termed the team’s three player personnnel assistants and one player personnel analyst as scouting assistants.

• The Saints have a pretty streamlined operation, despite having three national scouts (which is pretty unusual). They achieve this by placing the scouting department in the hands of AGM Jeff Ireland, who also fills the college director role, and assigning much of the work many area scouts would do to their national scouts. Also, though the team has three staffers in analytics, Ireland and Co. tend to rely more on their own eyes than what the math tells them.

To check out our analysis of all 32 teams, click here.

The perception is that after the June mini-camp is over, that’s pretty much it for the NFL until players report in late July. However, I didn’t know for sure that that was true, so I reached out to several scouts and other friends in executive-level positions.

Most area scouts I spoke to said their teams give them the summer off, for the most part. “I drink beer, go to concerts and (baseball) games,” said one scout. “Re-charge and do my fall schedule. I work for a team that values family time.”

Another agreed that it’s basically off time for the summer. “Post-draft is usually the first chance scouts get to somewhat relax,” he said. “To me the best course of action is to take time and decompress.”

Of course, other teams see the summer as catch-up time. “Some teams have their scouts immediately begin watching tape and having all the future draftable players in next year’s draft written up by July 1,” one scout said. “I’ve had where I watched tape the entire summer, but you’re worn out already on tape by time camp begins.”

Watching tape is part of the summer activities for several scouts I polled. “I like to watch at least a few games of every prospect I will see in the fall,” one scout told me. “If I spread it out correctly, the workload isn’t too much and it helps me get ahead for the fall.”

The one thing that seems to be universal during the summer, at least for area scouts, is that they begin to decide when and where they’ll hit the various schools they’re scheduled to scout that fall. I was under the impression this was all mapped out by the Director of College Scouting, but this does not seem to be the case.

As for GMs, it’s an entirely different proposition. At the executive level, there’s a lot more work getting done. One source’s list included:

• Set-up early boards for the next fall college evals.
• Seniors and juniors to watch for.
• Watch previous seasons tape on aforementioned.
• Tag players that scouts had as draftable or PFA’s (priority free agents) that didn’t get to sign or make it thru OTAs (excluding injuries).
• Evaluate the players that have finished two seasons to grade scouts.
• Reach out to college tree on who they like in their conference as real guys – not their own teams.
• Early prep on upcoming unrestricted free agents. Make sure who is in the last year, along with potential cap cuts, contract voidable, etc.
• Potential trades and looking at excess on other teams’ rosters.
• Thin spots by team.
• Media comments on camp/OTA performances.

I guess the bottom line is that schedules vary, but even workaholics need a little time to reset so their brains don’t turn to mush.

With the dust settling in NFL front offices, I thought it would be interesting to look at the general managers hired in the last three years. Where do they come from? What do they have in common? What do NFL teams seem to be looking for in the best candidates?

To answer these questions, we came up with this graphic comparing the 10 GMs hired in the last three years. The 10: Ray Farmer (Browns) and Jason Licht (Bucs) in 2014; Mike Maccagnan (Jets), Scot McCloughan (Redskins) and Ryan Pace (Bears) in 2015; and Sashi Brown (Browns), Chris Grier (Dolphins), Bob Quinn (Lions), Jon Robinson (Titans) and Howie Roseman (Eagles) this year.

Here’s what we came up with:

Finished at 50: The oldest GM hired in the last three years is Maccagnan at 47, and his hiring comes with a bit of an asterisk because his relationship to the man conducting the Jets’ search (former Texans and Redskins GM Charley Casserly) was central to his selection. Second-oldest is new Fins GM Grier, and like Maccagnan he’s a bit of an outlier because the real iron in Miami’s front office belongs to Mike Tannenbaum, the team’s Executive Vice President of Football Operations. Toss out those two, and average age of the last six GMs hired is 40. In fact, all four GMs hired this year (except Grier) have been 40.

Patriotic: Four of the 10 on the list had experience at New England on their respective resumes. Two others, Farmer and Pace, had the Belichick ‘scent’ as Farmer worked under ex-Pats executive Scott Pioli during his time in Kansas City while Pace was schooled in the Parcells way in New Orleans by head coach Sean Payton. The other four are outliers for different reasons. Brown and Roseman both earned the trust of ownership and worked their way into the GM position from within, while Maccagnan benefitted from his time with Casserly and McCloughan had a different, though substantial, pedigree from his status as a Ron Wolf protege.

Some experience necessary: Though all 10 could be considered experienced in league circles, none could be considered an old hand, per se. Only four (Grier, Licht, Maccagnan and McCloughan) had more than two decades in NFL front offices when they were hired. On the other end of the spectrum, the Browns hired not one, but two, GMs in the last three years who had 14 years or less in pro football management. Farmer and Brown combined for 26 years’ experience. That’s just two more years than Maccagnan and McCloughan each had (24) when they were hired.

There’s plenty more to know about the men who are being hired as general managers these days. We develop it a bit more in our Friday Wrap, a free weekly newsletter that goes out to more than 3,000 people all around the game. Want in? Register here.

 

 

Next week is a big week for the 2017 draft. I know that sounds odd, but it’s true. The week after Memorial Day is traditionally when BLESTO and National Football Scouting (NFS) introduce their subscribing teams to the next draft class.

If you read this blog, you probably already know what I’m talking about, but if not, here’s a quick primer. About two-thirds of NFL teams subscribe to one of two scouting services, NFS and BLESTO. BLESTO is the older of the services (and based in Jacksonville, Fla.), but National (based in Indianapolis) probably has a slightly better reputation among teams (and a few more subscribing teams). Both services command six-figure sums to provide teams with a detailed but preliminary look at the top rising seniors. Their lists usually number in the 800- to 1,000-player range, and players are given a grade (each service has its own proprietary grading system).

On one hand, these services give subscribing teams a big hand up on evaluation. Based on what these ‘combines’ tell teams, most scouting coordinators put together travel schedules for their scouts. Players with high scores achieve tremendous status going into their senior seasons, and automatically head to the top of the draft list, at least in the early stages of the season.

On the other hand, these services are far from infallible. Subscribing teams have to provide a scout to pitch in his services, and usually these scouts are either new to the business, quite young, or both. In fact, the combine scout role has become the intermediary step between scouting assistant and full-fledged road scout. Therefore, lots of the people putting these grades together are cutting their teeth in the business. In fact, a tremendous amount of their jobs is not a lot different from your garden variety draft fan — combing through hundreds of college rosters to find players that fit certain parameters, calling coaches and asking for recommendations, and even Googling to find top players in out-of-the-way conferences.

Next week will also serve as a kickoff for agents to start looking for these lists. Though they’re proprietary, and very hard to find, and far from perfect, these are seen as the best tool for kicking off recruiting. In fact, to some degree, NFS/BLESTO week kicks off recruiting for most agencies. Getting a copy of the list is almost seen as a measure of status for agents (especially young ones). When you’ve gotten your hands on one of the lists, it means you’ve arrived as an agent. You’ve got juice. You’re wired. You have connections.

The one caveat to the lists is that only seniors are evaluated. It’s one way the NFL has built detente with several schools that would rather not have their players’ heads filled with pro football dreams. As we’ve seen, especially the last few years, the truly elite players rarely make it to their senior seasons. One day soon, the combines will have to address this, or someone else will fill that market space. It’s just one more possible niche you can fill if you’re trying to figure out how to crack the league.

Anyway, as you maybe take a post-draft break from the gridiron and enjoy burgers and dogs by the pool this weekend, understand that NFL scouts are digging in and getting ready for what’s in store in about 11 months.

Here’s Part 4 of our breakdown of former Browns GM Ray Farmer’s presentation at our seventh annual ITL Seminar in Indianapolis last month. Click here to review the first half of his presentation.

• Here’s Ray’s take on late-round picks vs. UDFAs: “If I know that one percent of seventh-rounders make it, but three percent of college free agents make it, would y’all call me stupid for trading seventh-round picks away? . .  . Seventh-rounders have got a one percent chance. I’d rather trade my seventh-round pick, move up in another round, get a better player that I like, don’t take anybody in the seventh round, then bring in 55 guys for a workout after the draft, and let the cream rise to the top.” It’s an interesting strategy. When you go that route, you may lose a chance at the marquee UDFAs, but you put the numbers on your side. Often, a team will strike gold at these camps, but it makes scouts nervous because their favorite post-draft players don’t make it to these camps.
• Like most scouts, Ray doesn’t put much stock in a player’s pro day. “It may change them from a free agent to a priority free agent,” but it won’t move him into the third round. “When ball is done being played, that’s it.” So don’t put too much into a much-hyped pro day.
• On the other hand, bad character will drop a player. This is a bit of a departure from last year’s speaker, ex-Bears GM Phil Emery, who seemed to lean more in favor of talent over conduct and behavior.
• Every year in April, some of my agent clients are getting no interest whatsoever from teams. It’s hard for me to do this, but I have to tell them that their client is probably not going to be a post-draft signee, much less a draftee. On the other hand, if a scout calls, there’s an even-money chance the player will get signed as an undrafted free agent. The real difference-maker, however, is if a position coach is calling. That’s when you know a team is interested.
• Ray says that it’s easy to figure out who a team is looking for, if you pay attention. That makes sense. There’s so much information out there now about free agent signees, futures deals, numbers on contracts, etc., that a good agent should know exactly what teams are the best for his client.
• Ray makes an interesting point about how teams could significantly reduce the amount of money they spend in free agency — they could hold free agency after the draft. So often, teams sign veterans to plug holes, then get to the draft and find that they could have drafted cheaper, younger players at those key positions.
• If your client carries a jug of water to weigh-ins, hide that jug from the scouts, because it says “his weight ain’t real,” according to Ray. Yet every year, you see kids in line at weigh-ins at each all-star game carrying a jug of water. Use common sense.
• Ray recommends that players drop all their social media accounts during draft season, because teams are scrutinizing them for any false moves.
• Here’s an interesting quote from Ray: “There are a number of quarterbacks in this league that have lived the exact lifestyle that (Johnny Manziel) led for their first three, four, six, seven seasons.” Of course, he’s referring to the party lifestyle, not the domestic abuse allegations. It’s interesting. I agree with Ray: part of Manziel’s failure in Cleveland was his lack of discretion. Another part was that he failed to realize he was a marked man when he entered the league, and he needed to rein things in a bit.

 

With the first half of Ray Farmer’s presentation annotated (here and here), we press forward to check out the first 10 minutes of the second half of Ray’s presentation.

• Ray called agents ‘professional ambulance chasers,’ but in a good way. “If a kid takes a bad hit in practice, you should know. If a kid rolls his ankle, you should know.” It’s true. Ray relates a story about a player who suffered a minor injury during the early part of practice, and after a writer Tweeted it, Ray immediately got a call.
• In Ray’s two seasons with the Browns, they had 161 players on their draft board (total!) the first year and 168 the second year. From these lists, they drafted their players and signed their underrated free agents. That’s from a list that started of about 2800 players, he said. That’s about right for all teams. Obviously, that 150-170 players varies per team, but only by about 100 players. So out of that 2800 players to start with, there’s only around 300 players that all NFL teams saw as draftable. Now, think about every player you’ll read about on your favorite Twitter account or draft site as having a legit chance of being drafted. Five hundred players? 600? 800? That’s the disconnect between media perception and what the league really sees. There’s a big difference.
• Of course, the powers that be in the league don’t care. They want to see the event hyped up as much as possible. But the people doing evaluation aren’t looking at nearly as many players as you might be lead to believe.
• Ray asks a key question of players on the bubble: “Can he run 4.5 and cover on kickoffs? Because if he can’t, he can’t play.” That’s a great question for an agent to ask himself when he’s looking for sleepers that can make a team despite going undrafted.
• Ray reminded the crowd to understand what a team does before trying to pitch its scouts on a player’s ability. He even said he’s insulted when an agent calls him with a player that’s obviously a bad fit. This is so important.
• The idea that ‘coaches coach and scouts scout’ is an old-school mentality, according to Ray. The new-school idea is that everything is collaborative. Of course, at the end of the day, someone makes the final call, but I think teams try to sell all decisions as team decisions to mitigate the damage and criticism if things go wrong.
• Ray encourages agents to tell their clients to be humble, “even if they’re not humble.” That’s because scouts will take a player who’s full of himself as a challenge, even if he’s just confident, not cocky.
• The Browns gave scouts two years to prove themselves. Ray had planned on evaluating his scouts this year, but he got let go before he had a chance to complete their evaluation. This differs from most teams, which, I’ve heard, give their scouts three years.
• What’s true of scouts is true of players: no one wants to develop anyone anymore. They want someone who’s ready right out of the chute. “No one wants anything but instant coffee anymore,” Ray said.
• The way to get an undrafted free agent signed for the most money possible is to start planning for him to go undrafted in the fifth round. Rather than waiting and hoping, the good agent starts politicking with teams after the fourth round and trying to find his best situation. The time for negotiating is not after the draft, but during the draft. This is a key distinction. After the draft, take whatever is offered to you, Ray recommends, because if you don’t, it’s on to the next one.
• Also, Ray advises, “don’t take the money.” In other words, don’t hunt for the $10,000 UDFA bonus to make yourself look good. Hunt for the team that gives your client the best chance to make a 53 and earn $435,000 as an active NFL player. This takes a little extra work on your part, but it’s critical. The big bonus is meaningless if your client is on the street in September.
• Ray said that, for a lot of teams, evaluation is over once the combine starts. The combine is no more than confirmation. I guess that’s true of pro days, as well. Though you hear about sleepers and whatever that suddenly shoot up the board in late February and March, those players didn’t move with teams, just with media folks. The NFL already knew about them, for the most part.
• Ray was asked about analytics, and he illustrated its value this way. He asked, if you knew that only players that caught at least 75 percent of catchable balls would be successful in the NFL, would that be valuable information? Sure it is, most would answer. OK, but what’s a catchable ball? At some point, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. At the end of the day, really every number is subjective, or almost every one.

We’ll finish up with our dissection of Ray’s presentation next week.