WSW: My two big personnel mistakes

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We’ve spent this week, and a little last week, discussing how players slide through the draft or otherwise get overlooked by NFL teams. It’s probably a good time for me to tell my two stories about the times I was guilty of exactly the same thing.

In both cases, the stories involve running backs. All I can say in my defense is that running backs are harder to evaluate than one might think, and there’s plenty of evidence of that around the league. That said, both were just plain ‘ol mistakes, and I have to own them.

  • The first one I missed was in late December of 2006, when I was working with a game in Houston called the Inta Juice North-South All-Star Classic. I was a volunteer helping populate the rosters, and this was in the early days of ITL. Our game was in mid-January, and we thought we had a pretty complete roster; at the time I didn’t realize how much turnover there is in the last two weeks before a game, when players’ commitments start to waiver and some agents get cold feet realizing this is their last chance to pull a kid if they get a better offer. Anyway, we got a call from an agent I didn’t know plugging a kid from the University of Illinois. I demurred. At the time, I had heard of Pierre Thomas, but didn’t know much about him. We were excited about our roster of rushers that included future NFL legends Alvin Banks (JMU), Cory Anderson (Tennessee), Germaine Race (Pittsburg St.), Quinton Smith (Rice) and Abdulan Kuuan (Grambling). Pierre went on to become an integral part of one of the most explosive offenses in the league and helped his team — my favorite team, no less — win a Super Bowl.
  • The second one I missed was a year later, in early January of 2007, when I was Executive Director of the 2008 Hula Bowl. I got a call from Joel Turner of North Myrtle Beach, SC-based Turner Sports; Joel is one of the true wizards of finding under-the-radar NFL talent. He was pitching a rusher from Coastal Carolina that he had just signed. Joel always calls late in the process to promote players because, unlike a lot of agents, he doesn’t rush to get a kid into a game so the kid can turn around and hire another representative. This time I was no volunteer, so I had no one else to blame for passing on Mike Tolbert, who is now with the Panthers after a successful early career with the Chargers. I guess Tolbert profiled as a fullback (we already had two) and came from a barely established school, so it was easier to stick with the guys we had, like Ohio’s Kalvin McRae, Oregon State’s Yvenson Benard and Minnesota’s Amir Pinnix. Oh well. At least we got Chadron State’s Danny Woodhead right, and another running back, Toledo’s Jalen Parmalee, is still active.

There are probably dozens of other players I was offered in my days running games but turned down. However, these are the ones I still remember like it was yesterday. But hey, as I’ve said many times in this space, no one bats 1.000 and this is an inexact science.

Beating the odds

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There are always dozens of stories that come out of cutdown weekend, which was Labor Day weekend in the NFL. There’s one that has a happy ending that also illustrates a couple factors you usually see in players that make teams despite long odds.

Browns defensive back Robert Nelson made the 53 (not the practice squad) in Cleveland this year despite not being drafted. That’s rare, but not crazy. However, what IS crazy is that he made the team only after arriving on a tryout basis the week after the draft. In other words, he arrived at camp without even having signed a contract as an undrafted free agent. He was in town with 20 other players (16 from FBS schools) competing for one contract, and he made it.

Here’s what I find interesting:

  • The percentage of undrafted free agents who make rosters is usually pegged at about eight percent. I don’t know of anyone who’s ever figured the percentage of tryout players who actually make rosters, but I’d guess it would be under one percent. Nelson got the job despite competing with 12 other undrafted free agents in camp with the Browns AFTER competing with 20 just to get a UDFA deal; he was a true long shot. In essence, he made the team twice despite going undrafted.
  • One reason the Browns may have been able to slide him in on a tryout basis is that he plays in the west. Yes, the Pac-12 is a big-time conference, but there are just fewer scouts trolling the western states. It’s much easier to send scouts around to see dozens of schools in the east, where population is denser. Sleepers are rare, but they’re more common in the west.
  • Even with Nelson’s obvious ability, he probably wouldn’t have gotten a Browns invite but for two factors that were primarily coincidental (both are mentioned in the above linked article). One, he had the game of this life on the day the Browns were scouting Oregon State WR Brandin Cooks, a player they liked quite a bit. Two, one of the Browns coaches, Jeff Hafley, had a connection to Arizona State, most likely due to someone he had worked with along the line.

We always hear of players who beat the odds, who wind up making teams despite having very little chance of doing so. There are always interesting facets to each of these players’ stories. I hope this story just goes to show the capricious way things work out in the NFL these days. Even with scouting techniques incredibly advances and armies of evaluators out there breaking down players, there are still those that slip through the cracks.

 

Busy weekend

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If you’re in pro football, and especially personnel, there is no time for hot dogs and relaxing by the pool this weekend. In fact, Labor Day weekend is one of the busiest weekends of the year in the NFL from every side.

  • If you’re a college scout, this was the first big weekend of college football. All 32 teams took their college scouts, who had spent camp evaluating their own players as well as taking a peek at other teams’ personnel for practice squad purposes, and sent them to schools to do what they’re paid (mostly) to do.
  • If you’re a pro scout, you spent this weekend sifting through the 600-plus cuts in the league, figuring out who might work for your team’s 53 (for example, the Saints cut both placekickers they had in camp) and racing to contact their agents. You’re also working with the coaches to assemble your practice squad.
  • If you’re an agent, you’ve probably got at least one client (and maybe several) who got cut Friday or Saturday, and is looking for a new opportunity. Unfortunately, those opportunities are few and far between after a summer of evaluating talent. Most teams are playing a pat hand as they roll into Week 1.
  • If you work with the upstart FXFL, a first-year football league with four teams, you’re poring over the cuts list. As you do, you’re taking phone calls from agents marketing their players to you, while you’re trying to figure out which players are deserving of a tryout invite. It’s head-spinning work.
  • If you’re a CFL team, you’re working with the scouts you sent to NFL camps this summer to review players that may be able to help immediately. It’s a little trickier for CFL scouts, as they have to make sure the players don’t have any outstanding legal issues that may prevent them from going north. They also have to make sure the player has a passport, which isn’t a given.

This is a very cursory look at things, but for people who are considering a life in the football profession, it’s food for thought. People in the world of football don’t just work weekends; they work holidays, nights, and every other time most people are just sitting back and enjoying the game.

Last thoughts with Joe

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I wanted to wrap the week with a few last thoughts from former Jets West Coast area scout Joe Bommarito that didn’t fit neatly into one topic.

  • We all know height, weight and 40 are critical for players seeking NFL careers, and of course, production on the field. However, three things (in order) that scouts also look for are “good character people, good work habits, and smart guys who can learn.”

I think not enough is said about a player’s ability to process the volume of information that goes into a modern NFL playbook, but it’s a thing former Dolphins scout Mike Murphy also referenced last week. I remember a SWAC running back that a client represented a couple years ago. This player had led the SWAC, no slouch among FBS conferences, in rushing, and could catch the ball, as well. However, he was snubbed in the draft as well as after the draft, and had to settle for a tryout. Once he arrived with the team, he was immediately intimidated by the playbook and didn’t last long. The ability to turn diagrams and terminology into instant comprehension is critical.

  • Even in today’s hyper-media era, Joe said that doesn’t see the media as having a major impact on the draft process, simply because teams spend so much money and time on evaluation. “Scouts are focused every day on evaluating players at school visits, watching tape, going to practice, talking to coaches and staff, and interviewing players,” he said. “The scout is paid to form his own opinion on players.”

Interesting take. Scouts I’ve talked to are all over the map on this question. Some say their bosses are so sensitive to criticism that media influence creeps into the process. Others, like Joe, claim it’s much easier for decision-makers to focus on what a team’s evaluators have provided.

  • Speaking of the media, Joe said that nothing that happens from January to April has as much impact on a player’s draft value as what he did in-season. “Each game that he plays is like an interview,” Joe said. “He has ten of them, plus any bowl games. The all-star games, combine, and pro days are all additional parts to a puzzle that at the end will show you what a player really is.”

This is something I’ve always wrestled with as draft gurus constantly claim that players have improved their ‘stock’ at an all-star game, the combine or his pro day. Fortunes definitely improve for some in the spring, but probably not as drastically as fans are led to believe.

Breaking into the league

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Today, I thought we’d talk about practical steps for getting into the league from this week’s guest contributor, former Jets West Coast scout Joe Bommarito. When I asked him how someone could increase his chances of becoming an NFL scout, his thoughts echoed those I’ve heard before.

“If I met a young person who wanted to be a scout I would advise them to contact their local NFL team and volunteer to work in their personnel department,” he said. “Also, contact local colleges and volunteer to work in their scouting department. Then make friends with everyone involved in the organization, because you never know who is going to advance into a position where they can make hiring decisions.”

As we’ve discussed already this week, Joe made friends with Herman Edwards during their time around Monterey Peninsula College, and it led directly to more than a decade as a scout.

He also shed light on how to ‘make friends’ with scouts, or anyone else in the league. Though he was speaking specifically about how agents could build bridges to scouts, his advice would work for nearly anyone.

“Go to workouts, introduce (yourself) to scouts, hand out business cards, get their phone (numbers) and email contact information,” he said. “Then . . . follow up with a note regarding “pleased to meet you,” etc. Ask their opinions on prospective players, etc. (It’s) also important to touch base with scouts at (the) Senior Bowl (and) Combine (and) work on building relationships.”

Obviously, going to all-star games or flying to Indianapolis to hang around the combine might be tough for students or young professionals looking to break into player evaluation, but no matter where you live, there’s probably one time each March that scouts — at least a handful — will come to your state. During pro days in the spring (most are in March, but some are in early April), scouts are evaluating schools at every state in the country. Finding out when a school’s pro day is (NFL.com tracks this and it’s usually readily available) and going there that day will get you around scouts. Making contact with them and expressing an interest in the business might be a difference-maker if player evaluation is your interest.

I’d make one more point. If you have a scout’s mailing address, write a handwritten note of thanks for a scout’s time. This would work if you’re an agent trying to make relationships or an aspiring scout looking to make contacts. I know it seems old-fashioned, but a lot of the scouts who have seniority and ‘sway’ within a department are pretty old-fashioned themselves. I’ve heard others talk of the value of a note. In other words, if you’ve got some old stationery around somewhere, it may come in handy.

WSW: Nothing shocking about Shockey

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We’ll depart from our conversation with former Jets scout Joe Bommarito today to tell a story from longtime 49ers scout Oscar Lofton, who covered the West Coast for the team from the mid-90s until 2007.

In 2002, the Niners were coming off a 12-4 season that ended in the wildcard round against Green Bay. The team was stocked with offensive stars, including WO Terrell Owens, QB Jeff Garcia and RB Garrison Hearst. The team also had a solid offensive line as well, and started Eric Johnson, primarily a pass-catcher, at tight end.

That year, they chose No. 27 in the first round, selecting cornerback Mike Rumph. However, in an effort to vet all the players in the draft, they interviewed Miami (Fla.) TE Jeremy Shockey at the combine. Oscar was part of the team that talked to him. He said Shockey didn’t pull any punches during his interview session.

“I did the Shockey kid when he was coming out, and I said, he came in and he said, ‘I’m gonna be the best in the league, and I’m gonna dominate,’ and all this stuff, and I’m saying to myself, he’s a little too cocky for me. I need to get our tight ends coach to talk to him.

“He was really kind of full of himself, and kind of rubbed me the wrong way, so I knew that we needed to get probably (49ers team psychiatrist Dr. Harry) Edwards to talk to him, too, and find out psychologically. Doc would sit in on our interviews and everything, and he was pretty good about drawing conclusions. And I said, we need to spend some more time with him, and we did.”

That’s Oscar’s polite way of saying he was a real jerk.

I find it interesting that Shockey didn’t try to take anything off his fastball for the purposes of making an impression with what was, at the time, one of the most successful franchises in the league. For what it’s worth, Shockey was who he was, if nothing else.

Slipping through the cracks?

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Here’s a question I get all the time: how do players slip through the cracks? How do players go undrafted, then wind up having Pro Bowl careers? Priest Holmes, Kurt Warner, James Harrison, Tony Romo, Arian Foster, Wes Welker and Antonio Gates are among players who, despite advanced modern evaluation, extensive media coverage and teams of evaluators scouring the country 11 months out of the year, were not drafted but went on to stardom in the league.

I asked former Jets scout Joe Bommarito this question. He had an interesting answer.

“Nobody slips through,” he said. “This is a misconception. No player is overlooked, not because of his school, or record, or position, or any other consideration. Scouts evaluate every eligible player for the draft on school visits. No rock is left unturned. Whether a player has a first-round grade or a free-agent grade on him, that is what he has earned throughout his collegiate career. There have been first-round players who have not lived up to it, and free-agent players who have excelled. It doesn’t mean they have been overlooked, it just means that is the grade they have earned in their collegiate career.”

I respect Joe’s opinion but I’m not sure I agree, for several reasons.

  • I think there are biases that, at the very least, affect the grades players are given. For example, players from losing teams are often seen as less enticing by scouts.
  • Some teams give more weight to the preseason grades National and BLESTO give players, and when schools in remote places don’t have players with draftable grades, at times they’re skipped altogether.
  • There are players that come from out-of-the-way places that just don’t get the same exposure as players at schools in BCS conferences, for example.
  • There are also players like Matt Cassel, who was a backup at USC for Carson Palmer. Though he was drafted in the seventh round in 2005, 25 picks before the end, obviously he was far more talented than the ‘grade’ he received in college. His ‘grade’ was affected by his low usage due to sitting behind a Heisman winner.
  • There are also several schools that give limited access to their players — Penn State was like this under Joe Paterno — or whose coaches have no idea how the draft process and evaluation really work (and yes, there are many coaches who don’t know or don’t care, even today).

Scouting the Scouts

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One of the themes of this week’s conversation with ex-Dolphins scout Mike Murphy has been the inexactness of the business, and the fact that it’s an art, not a science (though many are trying to change that perception).

With that in mind, I asked Mike if any teams he had worked for, or any he had heard of, had metrics for measuring the effectiveness of its various scouts. Many/most feel that scouting is the ultimate ‘old boy’ network, and that may be true. It’s also a place of great nepotism. So, does anyone ever evaluate the scouts themselves in a coldly logical way?

Mike said the area a scout covers is, in its own way, a way to evaluate them.

“Regions are (a) difficult (way) to say (that) one scout is better than another because the quality of players are different from each region. Some conferences are known for their offensive linemen, while others are known for their skills positions.  Traditionally, one of your better scouts is placed in the Southeast, but that does not mean he is the best scout. Scouts are looked at in different ways; how they fit in with other scouts, how he does gathering information, (how he) presents that information, and does he get his work done in a timely manner? Some places are known for having their scouts more as information-gatherers than evaluators, and place a high importance on the information-gathering. Others are known to lean on their scouts as evaluators, not just information-gatherers. This is not an exact science; otherwise scouts would not be needed. You want to get more right than you get wrong, or you won’t be in the NFL long.

“I don’t know any team that has a set of guidelines to evaluate scouts. You do have some individuals who are IE’s (Instant Evaluators) and look at where players are drafted compared to a scout’s grade. The issue with being an IE is that your team or another may have made a mistake on a player but may not know for three years.

“The best way I know to evaluate a scout is the same as a player. Give them three years. Players will wash out somewhere around the three-year mark. Scouts are the same way (to see if they are any good). There typically will be a good year, a down year, and hopefully by the third year they have evened out and settled into their role.”

This is an interesting insight. There does seem to be a three-year window on staying in the league for most new scouts. You’ve got three drafts to prove you know what you’re doing, for the most part.

Given Mike’s insights along with Ari Nissim’s thoughts on the advance of sports metrics in the game, it will be interesting if teams start to apply such measures to figuring out whether their scouts are doing the job they’re paid for.

 

 

WSW (cont.): Inside the War Room w/Mike

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I’m always looking for stories of draft-day intrigue. It breaks down the myth that all teams know exactly how the draft should look, how players are rated, and where they fit into the rankings. It just illustrates that this is a human business where people don’t always agree, and even the biggest names in the business make mistakes (and sometimes succeed despite themselves).

I asked Mike to pass along a couple of recollections of such times during his 18 years in the game. He had a couple interesting memories.

“I am trying to think of specific players but there was an argument in Dallas where there were two (defensive backs) on the board and I wanted one over the other, but was overruled by the head coach.  We got both of them but was mad that it happened the way it did.  The player I wanted stuck, where the other was released.  Now it has happened the other way around as well. Felt good about getting a player but currently has not panned out like I thought he would or should.”

I found this really interesting. Mike has too much class to name the head coach, but he had two during his three years (2005-7) with the team, Bill Parcells and Wade Phillips. Based on what I know of both coaches (though I’ve only met Coach Phillips personally), he has to be discussing Parcells. Though a Hall of Fame coach, Parcells has been known to be (a) rigid and (b) wrong on draft day. For what it’s worth, at least Parcells’ staff had the sense to keep the good player, even though he wasn’t the head coach’s ‘guy.’ To Mike’s credit, he doesn’t try to characterize that defensive back as a star today. It’s an inexact science, for sure.

For Mike’s second story, he’s a little more specific.

“The worst one that stuck with me was (OT) Cordy Glenn from Georgia(, who went on to be drafted in the second round by the Bills in 2012). I had some people on my side, but when it came down to the last meetings before the draft, the whole room had changed.  Something happened, and now there was a consensus that Cordy was overweight and had weight issues, which I vehemently disagreed with.  We took (OT Jonathan) Martin from Stanford, but Buffalo took Cordy the pick before, so it was a moot point, but (I was) very discouraged with the flip in the room, and some of the comments made about the player which were absolutely false.”

Glenn remains with the Bills as a starter on the offensive line, while everyone knows how the Martin story worked out. Mike would never say that he saw how that story would unfold. Still, it’s interesting to see how the scouts who’ve spent time on the road evaluating players can be evaluated when there’s sudden momentum against a player, and a group dynamic evolves. I’d give anything to know what prompted that ‘momentum,’ and it it was perhaps media-driven. I guess we’ll never know.

WSW: A Scout’s Day

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For today’s War Story Wednesday, we’re turning things over to this week’s interview subject, former Dolphins scout Mike Murphy. He goes into depth, with some interesting specifics, on what an NFL scout’s day looks like.

“You set your schedule in camp before you leave, and for the most part, you are gone 10 days to two weeks at a time. This can get drawn out but here goes.

“If you are a morning person and like to work out, this is the best time to do it, so you are usually up around 5-5:30 a.m. to get an hour in(, followed by eating) breakfast and (be) at your school somewhere around 7-8 a.m. depending on what time the school allows you in. You sit in a dark room by yourself or with other scouts and grind out the game tape.

“The game tape is not what you see on TV. There is no sound, and it is a sideline and end-zone view, and you watch a minimum of three games plus special teams. The biggest issue is to stay focused when it is quiet and you are in a dark room. At some point during the day, the pro liaison will come and talk to you regarding the players. He will either get into an in-depth conversation on players, or he will be vague. That will depend on the policy of the program set by the head coach.

“If you have watched the tape and spoken with the pro liaison, the next thing is (to) speak with the athletic trainer, strength coach and academic advisor. If you can get to a position coach, coordinator or head coach, (talk to them, too). All of these interviews help you build a bio/background on an individual player. This background can, and will, have a big bearing on the individual’s draft status. You want to dig and see if the individual can learn, and if he struggles, is it terminal, or is there a certain way he learns, and can he retain the information given to him? This will help also when you talk to your coaches about an individual player letting them know that there might be some issues with the player’s ability to learn. What we find are a lot of players that have reading comprehension issues. This causes a problem because of the volume of information given to players each and every day during training camp and the installation of an offense or defense.

“After you finish with your interviews, you head out to practice to get body types and watch the players move around. The body typing is helpful in many ways to see growth potential, for example. Are they a small-boned individual or big-boned? Large-boned players are usually naturally big and not self-made, allowing them to put on more weight, as opposed to a small-boned individual who is self-made, not naturally big, and who is susceptible to injury.  Is a lineman narrow-hipped, knock-kneed, high-cut (long legs)?  This will affect his ability to create power or anchor and play with good consistent leverage.

“Once you have gotten all your information and watched practice, you head to the car to drive to your next town.  It could be a hop, skip and a jump down the road or a four- to five-hour drive, sometimes more. Most times, you are done with practice between 4-5 in the afternoon.  Once you get to your next destination, you may have grabbed dinner on the road, or you get dinner and start typing your reports.  In any event you do not start typing reports until after dinner (time frame). I have been up until 1 a.m. typing reports, but most evenings will be somewhere around 11p.m., and you are up and back at it all over again the next day.

“The job has its perks, and where else do they pay you to watch football? The thing is, it isn’t as glamorous as people think, and it is a grind.  Most times, come November, there are a bunch of grumpy scouts, and that will affect how you view a player. You do find yourself coming out of camp being more lenient, but come November, you become much less lenient.”