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~ The daily blog written by ITL's Neil Stratton

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Personnel Symposium 2026: My Most Anticipated Sessions

31 Friday Jul 2026

Posted by itlneil in College personnel, Getting started, ITL, NIL, Transfer portal

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If you’re like me, you know the backbone of working in the business of football is your network. You get your job, and you get better at your job, through the people you know. It’s why I started the ITL Symposium and why I rarely miss chances to be among the people in the industry. This is why I’m not missing next week’s Personnel and Recruiting Symposium in Nashville, and I highly recommend you try to be there, too.

The list of sessions has been posted, and if you’ve been previously, you know that you can attend whatever session you want during the three days (half-day Monday, full day Tuesday, half-day Wednesday) of the event. Here are the six places you’ll be sure to find me next week.

  • How Will AI Change Scouting and Roster Building, presented by Teamworks (Monday, 4:45 p.m.): “AI” is the word on everyone’s lips these days; you may have heard that one college football blue blood team has even hired a Director of AI. As a guy who’s been accused of being old-fashioned, I look forward to hearing what direction AI is taking the game. I look forward to having my mind blown.
  • Social presented by Hudl (Monday, 6:30 p.m.): Look, if you can only make one session, it needs to be this one. Last year, I’d estimate there were 400 people in one giant room talking, renewing acquaintances and making new contacts. If you work in college or pro football, and you are serious about your career, you gotta be in this room Monday night.
  • Building a Front Office – Staff Structures (Tuesday, 11 a.m.): In my opinion, this is the most critical topic in the business that not enough people are talking about. If you listen to the podcast I co-host regularly, you know that everyone in the game is on an endless quest to find out the most efficient way of doing their respective jobs. I’m eager to hear what is discussed Tuesday morning.
  • Realities of NFL Scouting vs College Personnel (Tuesday, 4 p.m.): Though a lot of people don’t realize it, there’s a difference between player evaluation at the NFL level as opposed to college. Though this title is a little vague, I hope this addresses the vagaries of both — as well as how the jobs, pressures, demands differ.
  • Pro Liason Programming + Scout Relationships (Tuesday, 5 p.m.): There is an art to developing relationships, and the ups and downs of how NFL scouts and their college counterparts deal with each other is something we discuss and think about quite a bit. I’m eager to hear more from people in the industry about this topic.
  • Advancement Strategies for Young Professionals (Wednesday, 9:30 a.m.): Last year, the symposium kind of became a ghost town on Wednesday morning; as I recall, even some of the vendors left early. Maybe that’s why organizers have chosen to put three career development sessions on Wednesday morning. I chose to spotlight this one, but really, any of the three (the other two are “Career Development – Tips for Young Evaluators” and another one simply called “Career Development”) seem helpful. As someone who’s focused on helping others’ career development 24-7, I’m always looking for tips on how I can best help my people.

By the way, if you’re curious about who will be in Nashville next week, we’re compiling a list of college GMs who are confirmed for the Music City. It will be in the Friday Wrap later today. Register for it here. See you in Nashville.

2026 NFL Agent Exam: Now What?

24 Friday Jul 2026

Posted by itlneil in Agent Exam, Getting started, ITL

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If you just took the NFL Agent Exam on Monday, you probably spent Tuesday (and maybe Wednesday) catching your breath and trying to forget about the CBA for a while. Inevitably, however, you’re going to get antsy and start wondering what you can do to kill time until late August/early September. If so, here are a couple ideas.

Network: A lot of people think this means sending LinkedIn requests to everyone you can find with “scout” in their bio. Nothing could be further from the truth. You’ve got to get out there, not just between now and the end of August, but always. One place you can go to meet people in the game is Nashville, Aug. 3-5. It also might benefit you to get a handle on the all-star calendar for January (and, if you get bad news in six weeks, maybe even consider volunteering with one of them).

Research the game: Read books, as Clemson personnel executive Kevin Kelly recommended on a recent episode of the Scouting the League Podcast. Come to think of it, listen to our podcast — and any other podcast that talks about the business of the game more so than who to draft for fantasy football. There’s good stuff out there that’s very affordable. Did I mention that I’ve written three books about the business of the game?

Explore NIL representation: This is probably a dumb recommendation, because so many people waiting for their results are already NIL agents, but if not, plan to wade into the portal next year. There are so many basics of the game — identifying talent, getting comfortable dealing with parents, making contacts — that you don’t need a license to learn.

Join the Stratic Zoom coming next week: My colleagues at Stratic — who just got done teaching an excellent exam prep course — are setting up an online session with an NFL scout or executive next week. Contact Shane or Christian at Generation Sports Group for more details.

Be ready for Oct. 1: Think positively. Presuming you pass, things are going to move very quickly. You need to know exactly what states you plan to recruit, what kinds of players you’ll be looking for, and how much money you can spend. We’ll discuss all of that in our Agent Basics course in September, but in the meantime, give some (detailed) thought to strategy.

Develop your brand: It’s not at all uncommon to find agents who pass the exam, but don’t have a name for their agency, much less a logo, a social media presence, etc. This is not necessarily the most important part of the business — in fact, some people put way too much energy into these things — but it still has value. It gives you a sense of identity.

Get to know who’s succeeding in the game: You can’t know how to win until you study the people and the agencies who are winning. There’s no better way to do that than by joining us at Inside the League. Also, I recommend registering for our weekly newsletter on the game, the Friday Wrap. It’s free.

2026 NFL Agent Exam: All About the Study Guide

02 Thursday Jul 2026

Posted by itlneil in Getting started, Agents, ITL, Agent Exam

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There are less than three weeks until the 2026 NFL Agent Exam, so I thought it appropriate today to write about the best resource on the market, hands down, for preparing for the big day, our study guide, which you can order here. First, a few details.

  • It’s 70 pages. Concise and to the point. No AI fluff. Nothing but the content you need to pass the exam.
  • It arrives as a PDF we email you immediately upon purchase. We try to get orders sent out within an hour, and I, personally, make sure all orders are received. That’s important to me. I know time is of the essence.
  • The first year we offered it was 2013, so it’s been around for more than 10 years. I don’t have exact numbers, but we’ve sold hundreds of them.
  • The collective bargaining agreement (CBA) is 500-plus pages, so it’s easy to get bogged down reading it. I always compare studying the CBA to pass the exam to reading a dictionary to learn a language. You may learn terms, but you’ll never get the syntax, how stuff fits together, the examples you need to really grasp things.
  • It really gives a comprehensive overview of the essential info needed to pass the exam. Most students find it helpful to have during the pre-exam Zoom sessions the NFLPA hosts the week before the test. Rather than trying to scribble or type furiously as they’re going over things, you’ve already got a pretty good summation right there in front of you.
  • The CBA gets updated every year — mostly tightening a few things up and adding something here or there — so we update ours, too. It’s all contemporary with the NFLPA’s latest CBA tweak, which was in 2020.

When we first started offering our study guide, I was a little reluctant. Could I really stand behind a manual I didn’t write, didn’t know, wasn’t sure about? I can tell you that those questions have been answered, in spades, in the years since. A couple weeks ago in the Friday Wrap, several of last year’s test-takers who worked with us gave their advice on passing, and there were numerous spontaneous, on-the-record testimonials for the study guide. Here are a few:

  • “I re-wrote my own version of every section of ITL’s study guide in a separate notebook. Twice. Writing crystallizes your thinking. So write, write, write. Get as many reps in as possible, even if you think you know it.” – Winston Venable, Venable Sports Group
  • “The best advice I have would be the exam is straight forward, memorize the info on the study guide, work through the practice tests a whole bunch, and you will be fine.” – Matt Baldeck (independent)
  • “I think for me in the last month, I focused my time on watching and/or rewatching Ian’s videos, reviewing the study guide, and taking every practice test I could find. I did not spend much time, if any, reviewing the CBA.” – Lane Macaluso, Macaluso Law

The rave reviews didn’t end last year. “Been using the study guide and exam tool — helping a ton,” texted one of this year’s aspiring contract advisors. “The study guide has been a huge help and a solid basis for the outline I’ll carry with me on test day,” texted another.

I urge you to give our study guide a try. It’s the best decision you can make if you want to pass the exam. You won’t be sorry if you pick it up.

Five Things for New NFL Agents to Know About Pro Days

13 Friday Mar 2026

Posted by itlneil in Agents, Getting started, ITL, NFL draft, Scouts

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Tonight, I gathered with several members of the 2025 NFLPA agent class to discuss pro days and the things they need to know this time of year. In the process, I developed 10 truths regarding pro days. I pulled five of them from my notes tonight, and they’re below.

Here’s my take on what new agents need to know about March.

  • No matter what scouts say, 40 times and pro day performances are important. This is something that was really brought home to we when I was writing my last book. It’s probably more true today than ever. A fringe prospect who tests poorly can take himself off most — maybe all — draft boards.
  • Pro days are not a right; scout coverage is not a right. I think that as the draft has grown in popularity, there’s a perception that every player gets his chance to shine in a workout. That’s not true. Even if every single NFL scout was dispatched to pro days across the country, they’d be tasked with gathering numbers on 1,500-2,000 players across about five weeks, and that’s just at the FBS level. Never mind that most are just not NFL-caliber players. Scouts are people, too.
  • One scout is way better than no scouts. I’ve had agents lament that there was only one, maybe two, scouts at a pro day. Most teams share numbers through what’s called the APT Coalition. If a player worked out at a remote school with minimal NFL talent, let’s face it — there’s probably better places for a scout to be.
  • If you get a player into a pro day, there’s a good chance he will only get to run a 40. Some schools are very liberal with how many players from other schools they allow to work out, but here’s the catch — they only let them run the 40. If their time doesn’t measure up, they don’t get to finish the rest of the drills. Once again, pro days are not a right, and scouts and school officials have to be economical with their time and efforts.
  • Pro liaisons often know less than you’d think. It’s not their fault. Their job is to help their respective teams win on Saturday, not get their players into the NFL. The point is, defer to them on some things, but make sure you verify everything they tell you.

Obviously, there’s plenty more to know about pro days as well as how to get a player his best pro day; the vagaries of alternative leagues like the CFL and UFL; NFL local pro days; and the all-important Day 3 of the NFL Draft. These are all things I covered tonight with Inside the League clients.

We didn’t record things, but I’ve got pretty detailed notes. Happy to share them if you join the ITL family.

A Few Thoughts on How We Can Improve Our Combine Events

06 Friday Mar 2026

Posted by itlneil in Agents, College personnel, ITL, Media, NIL, Transfer portal

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Forgive me if this is a little self-indulgent for a couple of events that have already taken place. However, I’ve spent the last week thinking about how we could make our two Indianapolis events last week, the 2026 Ellison Kibler at Merrill Lynch ITL Combine Seminar and the 2026 Dropback ITL Symposium, even bigger in 2027. Here’s what I’ve come up so far.

More space: We were smart enough to increase our space for Friday’s symposium — and thank the Lord that we did, because we had a packed house — and increased our space for Wednesday. However, we probably need to expand our space even further for both events. Hopefully we can return to the first floor while meeting our needs, size-wise.

More imaging: We improved our social media game since last year, but let’s face it: we had nowhere to go but up. I’ve had a lot of the participants from Wednesday and Friday seeking photos of themselves from the events. I get it. When you work in the shadows, you have to find a way to let others learn who you are (or, at least, what you look like). We’ve done a good job with photos for the seminar, but not always got the pictures out. Friday, our photography was minimal. We’ll do better on both counts next year, and we’ll get shots out to people from Wednesday sooner this year.

Registration: I think we have to cut off signups earlier. We also have to level up our registration process. We’ll be giving this more thought before next year. Several people got into the symposium late despite registering days, even weeks before the event. That’s not fair to them.

Roundtables: Panelists (agents and GMs) had a really difficult job. We posed some difficult questions (they’re in this email in case you were wondering), and it’s not easy to respond when there are 400 people in the room. Some of the feedback I got was that they might be more comfortable sitting at tables with only a few people from the community. I’ve seen this done at previous symposiums, and it came together really well. However, they didn’t have as many people as we had, and it requires signups well in advance so you can kinda plot things out. We had a significant amount of walkup registration and that will probably continue next year with schedules in Indianapolis so volatile. I’m not sure if we can pull this off. But maybe we’ll try.

Promotion: I devoted three newsletters and 3-4 podcasts to promoting our symposium; I also put a ribbon on our website with all the details. Still, we had members of some of the top agencies who expressed disappointment that they didn’t know we were having it. I’ll admit I focused my personal texts, emails and DMs on college GMs and directors, hoping that agencies would participate if we had enough members of the college personnel community. Next year, I’ll be more aggressive about reaching out, personally, to people who have attended in the past.

If you were there, and you have ideas, I’d love to hear what you’ve got. I’m sure there are things I’m missing. I want to make both our events the place the football community comes to share best practices and meet key people. I won’t stop trying to improve both. DM me on Twitter at @insidetheleague.

Here’s Why You Should Attend Next Week’s Personnel Symposium

01 Friday Aug 2025

Posted by itlneil in ITL, NFL draft, Scouts

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The 2025 Personnel and Recruiting Symposium takes place Monday through Wednesday of next week in Nashville. If you read this blog, you need to be there. Here are a few of the reasons why.

The program is sure to enlighten and educate anyone in college and pro football: See for yourself what’s ahead. The topics are important and the people who’ll be presenting know their stuff. You don’t get to hear people like this talk football on a regular basis.

Look at who’s going to be there: Reviewing the Personnel Symposium Twitter account, I count 18 NFL teams headed to Nashville (49ers, Broncos, Browns, Bucs, Chiefs, Colts, Commanders, Cowboys, Eagles, Falcons, Jaguars, Jets, Lions, Packers, Rams, Seahawks, Titans and Vikings). The Bears’ GM, Ryan Poles, will be one of the speakers. The new executive Director of the Senior Bowl, Drew Fabianich, will be there, as will his counterpart at the East-West Shrine Bowl, Eric Galko, and the co-founder of the College Gridiron Showcase, Jose Jefferson (I think there’s a good chance Scott Phillips, the executive director of the new American Bowl, could be there Tuesday, as well). Countless members of P4 and G5 personnel departments will be there, too. I also know of four former NFL scouts will be there. It’s going to be big.

This is how you get a job in modern college/pro football: I preach it all the time — football is a people business. There are hundreds of aspiring scouts and evaluators trying to get a job in the game. The only way you vault past them is with the relationships you develop. The only way to meet people who might be able to help you is by being around people in the game. There will literally be thousands of them in Nashville next week.

I’d love to autograph your copy of my books: If you’ve been kind enough to buy Value Picks lately, or Scout Speak in the last few years, I’m much obliged. I’ll have a Sharpie next week and I’d love to sign whatever you have. Incidentally, all the speakers and panelists next week will get copies of Value Picks.

We’re going to be conducting an interesting survey in Nashville: We’ll have more details in the Friday Wrap, but we’re going to conduct the first-ever poll of people working in the industry on the college level. So many people aspire to work in college personnel, but many are getting out. I want to reconcile that, and our survey is going to be really enlightening. Make sure to check out the Wrap tomorrow (register here if you don’t receive it already).

So anyway, I know there are costs associated with it, and I know it’s not easy to just pick up and go, but I think this will be worth it. DM me at @insidetheleague if you’re going. I’d love to connect.

Here’s What I Learned While Writing Value Picks

17 Thursday Apr 2025

Posted by itlneil in ITL, NFL draft, Scouts

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I’ve said this a lot, maybe even in this space, but one of the best things about working in this game is that the learning never stops. That was especially true as I wrote my third (and latest) book, Value Picks, which is available on Amazon right now.

Here are a few things I gathered while putting the book together.

Few teams practice BPA: Every team likes to claim that it took the “best player on the board” at each turn, but that’s just not true. Numerous teams passed on Alabama’s Derrick Henry because they felt set at running back; credit to the Titans for taking him despite planning on making the recently acquired DeMarco Murray their bell cow in 2016. Several teams also overlooked Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott simply because they were set at QB. Not the Cowboys, who had a proven veteran in Tony Romo (though, admittedly, Romo was beset with injuries that eventually ended his career).

Workouts matter: There’s a segment of the scouting community that likes to laugh off the Combine as the “underwear Olympics.” However, as part of former Bears scout Chris Prescott’s chapter late in the book, he dismissed Florida LB Antonio Morrison as a fourth-round possibility because he “was a polarizing player who didn’t work out well.” On the other hand, he says of Texas Tech’s Jakeem Grant (who went 6/186 to the Dolphins) “I remember we didn’t really love him, then he pops whatever 40 time that was, and we kinda got on him late because of how fast he was.” As a receiver with iffy hands who didn’t return punts, if Grant goes out and runs a 4.4, he’s probably a UDFA who’s on a short leash in rookie camp. As it was, because he showed sub-4.2 speed in Lubbock at his pro day, he was given enough runway to develop into a second-team All-Pro in 2020.

Winning involves risk: I devoted a chapter to West Alabama’s Tyreek Hill, who had serious baggage entering the 2016 draft. Most teams wouldn’t touch him due to his character blemishes, but one did, Kansas City. I’d argue that they reaped considerable benefits from rolling the dice. On the other hand, the Saints got feedback from their sources at Ohio State that Michael Thomas could be difficult. Again, they rolled the dice, and for the first few seasons, they were big winners. Ultimately, however, his conduct became a problem. It’s arguable whether his actions outweighed his production, but they definitely got some negative along with the positive. Still, both teams were rewarded, to some degree, by taking a gamble.

Scouts are mostly right: A lot of people aren’t going to want to hear this, but scouts are right more often than not. Draft picks don’t fail in a vacuum. There are reasons some players lose their motivation when they make the money that comes with being an NFL draftee. However, maybe more often, they lose their effectiveness due to injury, multiple scheme changes/poor system fit, or other factors that go unnoticed. Usually, a player’s failing in the league were predicted somewhere in the reports filed by evaluators.

Sixteen Reasons Why ‘Value Picks’ Needs to Be on Your Reading List

10 Thursday Apr 2025

Posted by itlneil in ITL, NFL draft, Scouts

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This week, we’re launching my latest book, Value Picks: The Drama, Decisions and Details Behind Eight Selections in the 2016 NFL Draft.” It’s available in paperback, on Kindle, and on Audible here.

It’s a fun read, if I do say so myself. My original idea was to write a book about Ole Miss’ Laremy Tunsil and the Video Seen ‘Round the World, but as I dug into things, there were so many interesting stories that I had to expand my focus. There’s still plenty about Tunsil in there, but so much more, as well.

I thought I’d pick out 16 reasons why it’s worth putting on your bookshelf. Here goes.

  • Learn about the battle between North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz and Cal’s Jared Goff, and why the Rams ultimately chose Goff.
  • Find out how many teams truly saw both of them as first-rounders, and why (or why not).
  • Read scouts’ memories of what happened when the Tunsil video was played before the draft started.
  • Review which teams nearly rolled the dice on Tunsil before Miami finally took him at 13.
  • Learn why so many wide receivers were drafted before Ohio State’s Michael Thomas (and how they fared).
  • Discover which former NFL GM helped Cowboys owner Jerry Jones decide that Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott would be the pick at 4.
  • Break down the list of concerns teams had about Alabama’s Derrick Henry, and why Tennessee finally pulled his card despite having just traded for an every-down back.
  • Learn about the player comp that prompted Louisville’s Sheldon Rankins to go ahead of other defensive tackles like UCLA’s Kenny Clark, Mississippi State’s Chris Jones and South Carolina State’s Javon Hargrove.
  • Examine the Chiefs’ painstaking draft process that led them to choosing West Alabama’s Tyreek Hill despite his off-field issues, small-school pedigree and limited development while in college.
  • Find out which Bears scouting executive (and future NFL GM) was especially high on Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott.
  • Sort through the various quarterbacks the Cowboys tried to pick before “dumbing into” Prescott.
  • Follow the account of the devastating hit that might have secured West Virginia’s Karl Joseph as a first-round pick.
  • Laugh as you hear which Vikings pick gave the team fits for refusing to practice in socks.
  • Read what Minnesota scouts really thought about sixth-rounder Moritz Bohringer, the German who was the first-ever player drafted without playing college football.
  • Catch up on the account of Jakeem Grant’s sub-4.2 40 at Texas Tech’s pro day (and why his friends and family weren’t overly concerned when he was violently ill shortly afterwards).
  • Consider the disconnect among Browns staffers as team ownership pushed to make analytics a major part of the team’s decision-making.

This is my first book since Scout Speak came out in 2020, and if you enjoyed that one, you’ll love this one. I only write books that I would want to read myself, and this is one I’d order the first day it came out. Give it a shot. I think you’ll find it informative and entertaining.

Looking for Comps in the 2025 NFL Draft? Look Back 10 Years

04 Friday Apr 2025

Posted by itlneil in ITL, NFL draft

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So I’ve been looking pretty hard at the 2016 NFL Draft lately — more on that later — and it’s striking how closely it resembles this year’s draft class, especially on Day 1.

First of all, there were two QBs (Cal’s Jared Goff and North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz) who were far and away the top prospects in the draft. Second, pretty much everyone agreed on RB1, Ohio State’s Zeke Elliott. Third, there were five offensive tackles drafted in the first round, with two of them top-10 picks (Notre Dame’s Ronnie Stanley and Michigan State’s Jack Conklin); most mock drafts have 4-5 tackles going on Day 1 this year. Fourth, there will be 3-4 wide receivers who fit into the back half of the round, as Baylor’s Corey Coleman (1/15), Notre Dame’s Will Fuller (1/21), TCU’s Josh Doctson (1/22) and Ole Miss’ LaQuon Treadwell (1/23) did 10 years ago.

If the “model” holds, Miami’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders will be good but not great passers with a lengthy career; Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty will be dominant for 5-6 years before a steady descent; Missouri’s Armand Membou and LSU’s Will Campbell will be steady professionals for a decade; and Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan, Texas’ Matthew Golden, Missouri’s Luther Burden and Ohio State’s Emeka Egbuka will disappoint.

A few other things to look for if this turns out to be a replay of 2016:

  • There won’t be many quarterbacks drafted. In 2016, there were 72. That’s the second-lowest total in the last 10 years if you throw out the 2021 draft, which was an anomaly due to Covid anyway.
  • One of the down-the-line QBs will threaten Ward and Sanders to be the best in class, just like Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott did (he went 4/135 to Dallas). Could the ninth QB drafted this year — which projects to be someone like Syracuse’s Kyle McCord, Ohio State’s Will Howard, Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel or Minnesota’s Max Brosmer — turn out to equal, or even surpass, Ward and/or Sanders?
  • There will be a handful of non-combine invitees who have impressive careers. Middle Tennessee FS Kevin Byard (3/64, Titans), Manitoba’s DT David Onyemata (4/120, Saints), WO Tyreek Hill (5/165, Chiefs) are all still plugging away as they enter 10 years in the league despite getting snubbed in Indianapolis.
  • There will be serious value on the defensive line on Day 3. Entering a decade after the 2016 season, there are four fourth-rounders (the Steelers’ Dean Lowry, Commanders’ Sheldon Day, Bears’ Andrew Billings and Onyemata) and two fifth-rounders (the Bills’ Quinton Jefferson and Lions’ David Reader) who are still on NFL rosters. That’s not common.

Incidentally, there were a lot more interesting facts about 2016 that bear greater consideration. The battle for the top of the draft that pitted Goff and Wentz; the missed opportunity that Alabama’s Derrick Henry and Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott represented to so many teams; receivers like Ohio State’s Michael Thomas, Texas Tech’s Jakeem Grant and Hill who were overlooked for a variety of reasons; and, of course, the unforgettable draft-day story of Ole Miss’ Laremy Tunsil. I’ll be going in-depth on the draft backstories of all eight in my next book, Value Picks: The Drama, Decisions & Details Behind Eight Selections in the 2016 NFL Draft.

It’s coming to Amazon in less than two weeks, and it’s gonna be big, I promise. Keep it on your radar.

A Look Back at How The Pundits Viewed the ’23 and ’24 Drafts

28 Friday Mar 2025

Posted by itlneil in ITL, NFL draft

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Wow. We’re a month out from the 2025 NFL Draft already. Around here, that means we do our annual sweep of seven top mock draft services to see who’s rising and falling. It’s an interesting snapshot of the draft class, even if it’s far from scientific and doesn’t actually represent what the teams are thinking.

But how accurate are the pundits one month out? It’s a question we started asking ourselves, and there’s only one way to find out: by reviewing their work. So here’s a look at what the seven services we review (Pro Football Network, PFF, CBS’ Chris Trapasso, The Draft Scout, ESPN, The Athletic’s Dane Brugler and Walter Football) said about the last two draft classes.

2023 DRAFT

  • Top five predicted picks: CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State; Bryce Young, QB, Alabama; Will Anderson, DE, Alabama; Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida; and Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech.
  • Actual top five picks: Young, Stroud, Anderson, Richardson, then Illinois DC Devon Witherspoon to the Seahawks. Witherspoon’s average draft slot (ADS) was 14.4.
  • Biggest misses: All seven services had Kentucky QB Will Levis going in the first round, with an average draft slot of 7.85. Levis wound up going 2/33 to the Titans. Also, all seven services had Penn State DC Joey Porter Jr. going in the first round (ADS 19.0), but he slid to the first pick of the second round.
  • Other surprises: Texas OH Bijan Robinson went 1/8 to the Falcons despite an ADS of 17.1, though, in fairness, we’ve learned the Falcons often go against the grain. Also, Georgia OB Nolan Smith went 1/30 to the Eagles despite an ADS of 17.5.
  • Kudos: Only Trapasso had Mississippi State DC Emmanuel Forbes going in the first round a month before the draft; he had Forbes at 1/24 (he went 1/16 to the Commanders). Also, only two services (PFF and The Draft Scout’s Matt Miller) had Kansas St. DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah in the first round, and both nailed his draft slot (31). Further hats off to PFF for sticking with the prediction and nailing the pick a week before the draft (Miller had abandoned Anudike-Uzomah as a Day 1 selection by then).

2024 DRAFT

  • Top five predicted picks: USC QB Caleb Williams; LSU QB Jayden Daniels; North Carolina QB Drake Maye; Ohio State WO Marvin Harrison Jr.; and Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy.
  • Actual top five picks: Williams, Daniels, Maye, Harrison and Notre Dame OT Joe Alt.
  • Biggest misses: All 22 players predicted to go in Round 1 actually did, so congratulations are in order. On the other hand, not one service, over the course of seven different mocks lasting from June until the week before the draft, ever identified Florida WO Ricky Pearsall (1/31, 49ers) as a first-rounder. Also worth noting: a week before the draft, no one saw South Carolina WO Xavier Legette (1/32, Panthers) as a first-rounder.
  • Other surprises: Things were a little bumpy for Pro Football Network, which was the only service to leave Texas DT Byron Murphy (1/16, Seahawks) off its first-round mock. Similarly, Walter Football was the only site to overlook Duke OT Graham Barton (1/26, Bucs) and CBS’ Trapasso was the only one who snubbed Oklahoma OT Tyler Guyton (1/29, Cowboys).
  • Kudos: ESPN’s Matt Miller (12) and Walter Football (13) were the only two services that saw Oregon QB Bo Nix (1/12, Broncos) as a Day 1 pick. Miller’s website, The Draft Scout, stuck with the prediction on Nix a week before the draft and nailed it, as did Walter Football (Trapasso had him at 15 a week before the draft; no other services saw him as a Day 1 selection). Also, only Pro Football Network (13) and Brugler (21) had Washington QB Michael Penix as a first-rounder; he went 1/8 to the Falcons.

We’ll take a look at how everyone did a week out from the draft in a few weeks. Obviously, judging draft services based on such a limited sample size does nothing to really gauge who’s best. But it’s fun, right?

For a look at which players all seven services a month before this spring’s draft, make sure to register for the Friday Wrap, which comes out this evening. Do that here.

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