If you’re a young agent reading this, just hoping that your client’s name gets called late (or during the UDFA process) in four weeks, you’re probably trying to weigh everything you’re reading and hearing online. Today, let’s give it our best shot and try to make sense of it.

• The best indicator seems to be calls from multiple members of the the same team’s personnel department. “I knew he had serious interest . . . when teams would call multiple times just to see how he was doing,” one agent said. “When . . . they are calling multiple times by multiple personnel people, then you can tell the interest is genuine.”
• For an agent to know his client has moved from undrafted free agent to definite draftee status, the standard seems to be calls from more than half teams and multiple calls from at least a half-dozen teams.
• As for the substance of the calls, when teams are asking who else is calling, that’s interest they aren’t faking.
• We’ve gotten mixed signals on the value of interview requests at all-star games. Some teams are just doing their due diligence, while others are indicating true interest. “I would say this,” said one agent. “At his all-star game, he met with 25 teams, which is a good sign.” Furthermore, in this case, the player met with the team that wound up drafting him three times at the same game, though they kept their interest under wraps until draft day.
• Of course, simple interviews at all-star games aren’t always predictors – the Chiefs are one team that likes to meet with as many all-star participants as possible. In fact, such meetings can be a downright false flag. “At the all-star games, a team’s initial board may not even be set yet,” said one wary agent, “so an area scout may like a kid as a camp-to-PFA guy early on, but after all the reports and pro day times come in, the kid is off the board. So what was once legitimate interest is now gone. But the player and agent may not realize it.”
• On the other hand, obviously, Top 30 visits are for real. “Looking back, when he got five Top-30’s, that’s really the biggest sign,” said the same agent, whose client was drafted in the sixth round after attending a lower-tier all-star game. “If you’re not getting at least a few top-30’s, that’s a bad sign I would say.”
• Another sure bet for a late-round prospect that didn’t attend the combine is when a team brings him in for a physical (a routine part of a Top 30 visit) or requests medical records. One agent told me that there’s no way an NFL team will draft a player unless they’ve conducted their own physical on him or he had an extensive physical done at the combine. When a player is drafted and fails his physical, most GMs and head coaches see that as a black mark against their own scouting and evaluation.

Obviously, this doesn’t give you a set of hard and fast rules, but hopefully, it gives you a little more direction, whether that’s good news or bad news. Good luck next month.

I know we just wrapped up a four-week series on things any NFL agent hopeful needs to know before getting certified. However, upon further review, I’ve come up with one more. Let me illustrate it with a couple of stories involving my team, the Saints.

• You may have read that Sean Payton and Johnny Manziel met during Super Bowl week, and rumor has it Payton is weighing giving him a shot with the team. My wife (who always refers to herself as ‘knowing more football than most women’) and I were discussing it, and she said she thought it was a bad idea putting a player with substance abuse problems in New Orleans. Though I saw her point, I disagreed. Manziel has plenty of athletic ability, and Payton has all the leverage, I said. He’ll sign a veteran minimum deal, and if he messes up, he’s gone. Simple as that.
• Meanwhile, the Saints are seriously considering bringing in DC Malcolm Butler, which would require a trade with the Pats because he’s a restricted free agent. Though it’s incredibly exciting to think of a big-time corner coming to New Orleans, the question is, how much is too much to give the Patriots for a guy that could suddenly experience a lack of drive after going from an undrafted rookie — a guy that didn’t even get a UDFA deal, but who had to come in on a tryout — to a man making $13 or $14 million per year? There’s certainly precedent when it comes to the Saints spending lots of money on free agent DBs who crap out almost immediately. Don’t believe it? Mention the names David, Browner or Byrd to any Who Dat guy, and watch how he twists his face into a look of disgust.

If you want to be a success as an NFL contract advisor, you have to have ‘hand’ over your client. Problem is, that’s becoming increasingly harder to do. The NFLPA, which you might expect would have your back, is increasingly interested in encouraging players to go agent-free. Meanwhile, ‘what do I get?’ is the money question that any prospect worth signing has for you, and there’s no signing a decent player without providing combine prep, which is probably $10,000 minimum. And don’t forget, a player can fire his agent any day, any time, for any reason, and all he has to do is give five days notice. I think this is one reason so many first-year agents sign small-school players. Not only are they easier to recruit, and might be less inclined to demanding big-time training, but their road is steeper anyway. They can’t be as disposable with their agents.

Of course, to some degree, NFL teams are the same way. When you draft a player in the first round, you are handing him anywhere from $5 million to $20 million guaranteed, and you pretty much can’t cut him for three years, even if he’s a Manziel-style distraction/bust. Players know this. That’s why it takes real character (and/or just downright love of playing football) to make it to a second deal and really have staying power in the league.

If you’re going to succeed in football, you’d better figure out a way to gain sway with the players you sign. It’s one of the real challenges of the game, especially for new agents.

In a few months, about 300 aspiring agents will assemble in Washington, D.C., for the 2017 NFLPA Contract Advisors Exam. If the last few years are any indication, at some point, one of the lecturers will ask the class how many expect to sign a player who will be drafted the following year. At least two-thirds of hands will raise, maybe more.

The truth is that, on average, maybe six people should raise their hands, and of those six, five are already employees of major agencies that will represent several draftees. Of those who are truly independent, who arrived with no ties to the big firms, maybe one hand should be raised. On an odd year, two.

There’s a perception that if a draft prospect completes four years in a decent FBS college program, starting a year or two, the natural progression is that he goes to the pros and plays 2-3 years. After all, that’s why the average career is so short, right? Everyone gets their shot, but only the Peyton Mannings and Deion Sanders have really long careers? And worst-case scenario, they go to the CFL, where they play for 6-7 years before moving on, right?

This perception is a big part of the problem, both for prospective agents and the players themselves. The problem is that it’s hard to perceive of the sheer volume of players vying for the 250 draft slots and 300 undrafted free agent contracts every year.

Let’s look at raw numbers. There are 125 FBS programs. Let’s say, on average, each of them has 10 graduating seniors that started a season or two, so that’s a pool of 1,250 players (conservatively). Last year, there were 484 rookies that made rosters (53 or practice squad), so right off the bat, that’s less than half of all draft-eligible seniors the NFL can fit onto its rosters. Now consider that of that 484, probably 100 never made it to their senior seasons. So that’s 384 jobs for 1,250 seniors, and we’re not even looking at the hundreds of FCS, DII and DIII players in the pool. Last year, 76 players made rosters from sub-FBS programs. So now let’s say 300 jobs for FBS players, just to make the math easier.

Of that 300, the vast majority will be signed by firms that have been around for years. Let’s say 250 go to established agencies. That leaves about 50 ‘make it’ kids left for mid-sized, small and rookie agents and agencies to divvy up. There are about 800 agents registered by the NFLPA. About 400 of them have active clients, so we’ll be generous and call them all ‘established.’ That leaves 400 agents vying for those 50 kids that slip through the cracks, yet make a practice squad (more likely) or roster (less likely). Oh, by the way, if your client makes a practice squad, you can’t bill him. So you get zero ROI on your training and recruiting investment. Ouch.

Of course, we’re just talking about making a team, for a game or two. All 32 teams are constantly churning the bottom of their rosters, shuffling players in and out due to injuries or just plain trying to improve their talent level. Making a team for any length of time introduces another reducing variable that we won’t even go into. But I don’t think we need to. You get the point.

Bottom line, if you’re taking the test this summer, or plan to in coming years, good for you, and I salute and congratulate you. But I want you to know what you face, and I want you to take seriously the challenge ahead of you. I’m always here to help, and I hope you’ll let me. Good luck.

At this point, while draft prospects and their agents are furiously preparing for next week’s combine or March’s pro days, there are about 300 people who are readying for the NFLPA exam this summer. Many of them will use our practice exam to increase their odds of success, which is a good thing, because the exam is extremely challenging.

Of course, knowing the CBA is just part of the job, and I constantly hear from aspiring agents who don’t seem to have a good handle on what’s ahead in non-CBA matters. With that in mind, my next five blog posts will seek to rectify this. These blog posts are a supplement to the newsletter series all our subscribers receive as part of an ITL subscription. The four topics we’ll cover are as follows:

• The Modern Draft Prospect
• Quid Pro Quo
• The ‘Knowing Scouts’ Dilemma
• The Draft and Your Odds

Without further ado, let’s talk about the modern draft prospect.

I think most budding agents have a romanticized view of young players that borders on fan-like. They see them as young and hungry, with an all-or-nothing attitude about training, working out, and otherwise learning their craft. They see them as respectful of the process and everyone helping them along. They expect players to be cordial and respectful to their agents and advisors, and above all else, grateful, taking nothing for granted. Similarly, they see the player and his parents as supportive but never presumptuous, and mainly only speaking when spoken to; they expect parents and family members to have a healthy sense of boundaries, and to be adult-like and reasonable in their expectations.

I think it’s fair to say this kind of player exists, and some of them even have a reasonable chance to play in the NFL. However, I think they’re pretty rare, and maybe even getting rarer.

The stories I hear most often from my clients are that the average player starts out with a rather heightened sense of what’s ahead, and his chances of NFL success. Most expect to be treated like NFL players from the get-go (car rentals, deluxe apartments, monthly allowances and training extras), and this is completely removed from their actual draft chances. The twist is that often, a player starts out very humble and less than entitled, but grows in his sense of appointment as the draft nears. Sadly, stories about parents are very similar. In many cases, they resemble a parent whose son chose an unsatisfactory spouse. They’re constantly meddling in the agent-plate relationship and even threatening them. There are ways around this kind of player — finding players you can enjoy representing is part of what we do at ITL — but far too often, this is the case.

There are only about a hundred reasons agent-player relationships take this shape. There’s the annual pre-draft hype-fest that makes every draft prospect either a future superstar or an under-the-radar sleeper. There’s social media, where former teammates paint an exaggerated picture of combine training glory and NFL interest. There are college coaches and athletic officials that spend four years painting unrealistic expectations of a player’s pro chances. There’s also the expected ‘loyalty to the program’ that means avoiding any real investigation and study of the NFL draft process. Factor in the family and friends that have been living vicariously through these young men for 20 years, and it becomes a perfect storm. And there you are, the agent, at the end of that wind tunnel.

Again, all players are not like this. In addition, the tactful agent has to figure out how to navigate these challenges. After all, we’ve got dozens of success stories we can cite. The point is, if you’re taking the exam (or hope to one day), be prepared for this.

More next week.