• About

Succeed in Football

~ The daily blog written by ITL's Neil Stratton

Succeed in Football

Tag Archives: NFL Scouting

Slipping through the cracks?

26 Tuesday Aug 2014

Posted by itlneil in Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

NFL Prospects, NFL Scouting

Here’s a question I get all the time: how do players slip through the cracks? How do players go undrafted, then wind up having Pro Bowl careers? Priest Holmes, Kurt Warner, James Harrison, Tony Romo, Arian Foster, Wes Welker and Antonio Gates are among players who, despite advanced modern evaluation, extensive media coverage and teams of evaluators scouring the country 11 months out of the year, were not drafted but went on to stardom in the league.

I asked former Jets scout Joe Bommarito this question. He had an interesting answer.

“Nobody slips through,” he said. “This is a misconception. No player is overlooked, not because of his school, or record, or position, or any other consideration. Scouts evaluate every eligible player for the draft on school visits. No rock is left unturned. Whether a player has a first-round grade or a free-agent grade on him, that is what he has earned throughout his collegiate career. There have been first-round players who have not lived up to it, and free-agent players who have excelled. It doesn’t mean they have been overlooked, it just means that is the grade they have earned in their collegiate career.”

I respect Joe’s opinion but I’m not sure I agree, for several reasons.

  • I think there are biases that, at the very least, affect the grades players are given. For example, players from losing teams are often seen as less enticing by scouts.
  • Some teams give more weight to the preseason grades National and BLESTO give players, and when schools in remote places don’t have players with draftable grades, at times they’re skipped altogether.
  • There are players that come from out-of-the-way places that just don’t get the same exposure as players at schools in BCS conferences, for example.
  • There are also players like Matt Cassel, who was a backup at USC for Carson Palmer. Though he was drafted in the seventh round in 2005, 25 picks before the end, obviously he was far more talented than the ‘grade’ he received in college. His ‘grade’ was affected by his low usage due to sitting behind a Heisman winner.
  • There are also several schools that give limited access to their players — Penn State was like this under Joe Paterno — or whose coaches have no idea how the draft process and evaluation really work (and yes, there are many coaches who don’t know or don’t care, even today).

Scouting the Scouts

22 Friday Aug 2014

Posted by itlneil in Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

NFL Scouting

One of the themes of this week’s conversation with ex-Dolphins scout Mike Murphy has been the inexactness of the business, and the fact that it’s an art, not a science (though many are trying to change that perception).

With that in mind, I asked Mike if any teams he had worked for, or any he had heard of, had metrics for measuring the effectiveness of its various scouts. Many/most feel that scouting is the ultimate ‘old boy’ network, and that may be true. It’s also a place of great nepotism. So, does anyone ever evaluate the scouts themselves in a coldly logical way?

Mike said the area a scout covers is, in its own way, a way to evaluate them.

“Regions are (a) difficult (way) to say (that) one scout is better than another because the quality of players are different from each region. Some conferences are known for their offensive linemen, while others are known for their skills positions.  Traditionally, one of your better scouts is placed in the Southeast, but that does not mean he is the best scout. Scouts are looked at in different ways; how they fit in with other scouts, how he does gathering information, (how he) presents that information, and does he get his work done in a timely manner? Some places are known for having their scouts more as information-gatherers than evaluators, and place a high importance on the information-gathering. Others are known to lean on their scouts as evaluators, not just information-gatherers. This is not an exact science; otherwise scouts would not be needed. You want to get more right than you get wrong, or you won’t be in the NFL long.

“I don’t know any team that has a set of guidelines to evaluate scouts. You do have some individuals who are IE’s (Instant Evaluators) and look at where players are drafted compared to a scout’s grade. The issue with being an IE is that your team or another may have made a mistake on a player but may not know for three years.

“The best way I know to evaluate a scout is the same as a player. Give them three years. Players will wash out somewhere around the three-year mark. Scouts are the same way (to see if they are any good). There typically will be a good year, a down year, and hopefully by the third year they have evened out and settled into their role.”

This is an interesting insight. There does seem to be a three-year window on staying in the league for most new scouts. You’ve got three drafts to prove you know what you’re doing, for the most part.

Given Mike’s insights along with Ari Nissim’s thoughts on the advance of sports metrics in the game, it will be interesting if teams start to apply such measures to figuring out whether their scouts are doing the job they’re paid for.

 

 

WSW (cont.): Inside the War Room w/Mike

21 Thursday Aug 2014

Posted by itlneil in Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

NFL Prospects, NFL Scouting

I’m always looking for stories of draft-day intrigue. It breaks down the myth that all teams know exactly how the draft should look, how players are rated, and where they fit into the rankings. It just illustrates that this is a human business where people don’t always agree, and even the biggest names in the business make mistakes (and sometimes succeed despite themselves).

I asked Mike to pass along a couple of recollections of such times during his 18 years in the game. He had a couple interesting memories.

“I am trying to think of specific players but there was an argument in Dallas where there were two (defensive backs) on the board and I wanted one over the other, but was overruled by the head coach.  We got both of them but was mad that it happened the way it did.  The player I wanted stuck, where the other was released.  Now it has happened the other way around as well. Felt good about getting a player but currently has not panned out like I thought he would or should.”

I found this really interesting. Mike has too much class to name the head coach, but he had two during his three years (2005-7) with the team, Bill Parcells and Wade Phillips. Based on what I know of both coaches (though I’ve only met Coach Phillips personally), he has to be discussing Parcells. Though a Hall of Fame coach, Parcells has been known to be (a) rigid and (b) wrong on draft day. For what it’s worth, at least Parcells’ staff had the sense to keep the good player, even though he wasn’t the head coach’s ‘guy.’ To Mike’s credit, he doesn’t try to characterize that defensive back as a star today. It’s an inexact science, for sure.

For Mike’s second story, he’s a little more specific.

“The worst one that stuck with me was (OT) Cordy Glenn from Georgia(, who went on to be drafted in the second round by the Bills in 2012). I had some people on my side, but when it came down to the last meetings before the draft, the whole room had changed.  Something happened, and now there was a consensus that Cordy was overweight and had weight issues, which I vehemently disagreed with.  We took (OT Jonathan) Martin from Stanford, but Buffalo took Cordy the pick before, so it was a moot point, but (I was) very discouraged with the flip in the room, and some of the comments made about the player which were absolutely false.”

Glenn remains with the Bills as a starter on the offensive line, while everyone knows how the Martin story worked out. Mike would never say that he saw how that story would unfold. Still, it’s interesting to see how the scouts who’ve spent time on the road evaluating players can be evaluated when there’s sudden momentum against a player, and a group dynamic evolves. I’d give anything to know what prompted that ‘momentum,’ and it it was perhaps media-driven. I guess we’ll never know.

WSW: A Scout’s Day

20 Wednesday Aug 2014

Posted by itlneil in Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

NFL Scouting

For today’s War Story Wednesday, we’re turning things over to this week’s interview subject, former Dolphins scout Mike Murphy. He goes into depth, with some interesting specifics, on what an NFL scout’s day looks like.

“You set your schedule in camp before you leave, and for the most part, you are gone 10 days to two weeks at a time. This can get drawn out but here goes.

“If you are a morning person and like to work out, this is the best time to do it, so you are usually up around 5-5:30 a.m. to get an hour in(, followed by eating) breakfast and (be) at your school somewhere around 7-8 a.m. depending on what time the school allows you in. You sit in a dark room by yourself or with other scouts and grind out the game tape.

“The game tape is not what you see on TV. There is no sound, and it is a sideline and end-zone view, and you watch a minimum of three games plus special teams. The biggest issue is to stay focused when it is quiet and you are in a dark room. At some point during the day, the pro liaison will come and talk to you regarding the players. He will either get into an in-depth conversation on players, or he will be vague. That will depend on the policy of the program set by the head coach.

“If you have watched the tape and spoken with the pro liaison, the next thing is (to) speak with the athletic trainer, strength coach and academic advisor. If you can get to a position coach, coordinator or head coach, (talk to them, too). All of these interviews help you build a bio/background on an individual player. This background can, and will, have a big bearing on the individual’s draft status. You want to dig and see if the individual can learn, and if he struggles, is it terminal, or is there a certain way he learns, and can he retain the information given to him? This will help also when you talk to your coaches about an individual player letting them know that there might be some issues with the player’s ability to learn. What we find are a lot of players that have reading comprehension issues. This causes a problem because of the volume of information given to players each and every day during training camp and the installation of an offense or defense.

“After you finish with your interviews, you head out to practice to get body types and watch the players move around. The body typing is helpful in many ways to see growth potential, for example. Are they a small-boned individual or big-boned? Large-boned players are usually naturally big and not self-made, allowing them to put on more weight, as opposed to a small-boned individual who is self-made, not naturally big, and who is susceptible to injury.  Is a lineman narrow-hipped, knock-kneed, high-cut (long legs)?  This will affect his ability to create power or anchor and play with good consistent leverage.

“Once you have gotten all your information and watched practice, you head to the car to drive to your next town.  It could be a hop, skip and a jump down the road or a four- to five-hour drive, sometimes more. Most times, you are done with practice between 4-5 in the afternoon.  Once you get to your next destination, you may have grabbed dinner on the road, or you get dinner and start typing your reports.  In any event you do not start typing reports until after dinner (time frame). I have been up until 1 a.m. typing reports, but most evenings will be somewhere around 11p.m., and you are up and back at it all over again the next day.

“The job has its perks, and where else do they pay you to watch football? The thing is, it isn’t as glamorous as people think, and it is a grind.  Most times, come November, there are a bunch of grumpy scouts, and that will affect how you view a player. You do find yourself coming out of camp being more lenient, but come November, you become much less lenient.”

The Media and the NFL Draft

19 Tuesday Aug 2014

Posted by itlneil in Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

NFL draft, NFL Prospects, NFL Scouting

In the course of interviewing former Dolphins scout Mike Murphy about his experiences in 18 years as an NFL scout with four teams, I asked a question I always pose to ex-scouts: what effect, if any, does the media (beat writers, draft ‘gurus,’ ‘Twitter’ scouts, etc.) have on the draft process? Does it ever influence what teams do?

I found his answer interesting.

“I know if you are a good scout, then all other outside influences will not impact one’s opinion. Scouts (for the most part) are paid well and paid for ‘their opinion.’ Stick to it, right or wrong. You are trying to make your team the best it can be, and most GM or head coaches do not want ‘yes’ people.

“I have been around a few that would (pay attention to Internet scouts and media) and (who) have been influenced tremendously by what mock drafts say, and have gotten themselves and the organization in trouble. Those individuals in the media, etc., get their information from somewhere. Most of the time it comes from someone in an organization. Those individuals don’t know what your team needs are (and) what your emphasis is on a position. They could be wrong, not know the rest of the country and how a player stacks up against others, medical history or mental issues. So why would you listen to it or let it sway your opinion? Trust in your scouts, and scouts, trust in your ability to evaluate players.  The other is best left for the armchair QB.”

Mike makes the presumption that draft scouts “get their information from somewhere.” I’m not sure I agree. Obviously, the Mayocks, the Kipers and the McShays of the world get insider info to compile their reports and form their opinions, but I’m not sure how pervasive this is. My experience has been that the overwhelming majority of mock drafts are modifications of other mock drafts. It’s a ‘monkey see, monkey do’ proposition. Still, if NFL scouts are aware enough of what’s out there that they actually have formed an opinion, there’s no question it’s having an effect on things.

I had a conversation with former Redskins and Texans GM Charley Casserly many years ago, and he basically dismissed mock drafts and the like as bathroom reading material.

However, I interviewed Patrice Brown, an agent who had a third-round draft pick in her first year certified by the NFLPA, what she’d learned in her first year as a player rep, and she had this response: “I would say how important relationships with the media are. The media, people may want to discount it, but these teams, everybody’s human. The way the media responded, it appeared to have some impact. We’re not in those war rooms, and the teams have these highly paid staffs that handle that, but hey, everybody’s human. Even after the season was over, I would have worked harder to connect and get himself some (recognition). Hey, even locally, I’m reaching out to sportswriters and where’s the hometown love? I would have done all those things better.”

The media’s real impact on the draft is still something I’m trying to figure out. I’m open to others’ thoughts on this. The human element really holds true in draft rooms, no matter how much it’s dismissed by NFL officials. I guess that will always be true.

A week with a former NFL scout

18 Monday Aug 2014

Posted by itlneil in Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

NFL Scouting

We’ve gotten a lot of positive feedback from last week’s series with former Jets Director of Football Administration Ari Nissim, so we thought we’d try a similar tack this week with Mike Murphy. Mike served almost two decades as an NFL scout before getting let go in Miami when the team made a chance at general manager. As a scout, your life rises and falls with the fate of your GM; when a team brings in someone new at that position, he regularly cleans house and hires his own ‘team,’ similar to when a new head coach comes in and builds out his staff.

In his 18 years evaluating talent for NFL teams, Mike worked for the Chiefs, Seahawks and Cowboys before his most recent stint with the Dolphins. He’s also got a CFL background, having coached for Ottawa and worked in personnel for Winnipeg. Here’s his full bio.

Mike has CFL bloodlines; his father, Cal, was a legendary coach and GM up north, and is even a member of the league’s Hall of Fame. However, there are plenty of people who never translate their Canadian roots to the NFL, and Mike was able to make that jump, to his credit.

Here’s how it happened, in his own words:

“I was coaching in the CFL (Canadian Football League) and there were issues with the ownership at the time, with them bouncing checks to name a few things. I got to know an individual that worked with Kansas City who used to come to Canada and scout. We struck up a conversation about scouting, and they happened to have an opening. It took a little doing, by having people call on my behalf to the individual that was doing the hiring in the personnel department. As you would have guessed, it isn’t always what you know, but who you know. Once I got in, my boss told me that it was now my job to stay in, and that was 18 years ago.”

The thing I like about Mike is that I explained him the purpose and audience of this blog, and he ‘got it’ immediately. He sent me some very long, very nuanced answers to the 10 questions I sent him. It’s always a measure of the success of an interview with a scout when I find myself reading and re-reading the answers, soaking it in and finding plenty of information I hadn’t heard before. That’s true of Mike’s interview.

Maybe the best part of Mike’s interview is that when I asked him what advice he’d give someone looking to become an NFL scout, he gave me a 10-item, point-by-point breakdown of the things he’d do (and has done). I found it really illuminating.

Stick around this week. I think you’ll find it to be very educational.

A Summer of Sizzle

29 Tuesday Jul 2014

Posted by itlneil in Agents, Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

NFL agent, NFL Scouting

Normally, the period from after the draft until camps start is the ‘low time’ for NFL news. Off the field, however, this is normally a time when major developments take place on the business side, from hiring and firing scouts to movements among NFL agencies. This has been the busiest summer in years for the latter of the two. Meanwhile, we’re seeing major investments with agents who have limited experience levels. Why is this? What are the factors accounting for such transition?

  • The agent business is poorly understood: Few people in other businesses understand the intricacies of the sports representation model. The upfront costs (travel for recruiting, licensing and NFLPA registration, combine training, marketing guarantees and/or signing bonuses) are formidable and it takes a long time to get a return on investment. That’s complicated by the fact that until a contract is signed, the player has virtually all the power.  The agent takes on all the risk. This makes for a treacherous career path.
  • It’s expected that success in this business requires major backing: Businessmen that I’ve encountered seem to accept that they’ll have to pour lots of money into its NFL ventures while not seeing any immediate returns. Once, when I was approaching agencies on behalf of a private equity firm, an agent I spoke to discussed the ‘multiple’ that comes with investing in his company. His message: this business has cache, and its barrier to entry is very high, and the failure rate is even higher, so the pure dollars and cents of the business aren’t the determinant for the investment level he’d need to give up a piece of ownership.
  • It’s a young man’s game: I’m of the opinion that there’s a greater chasm between older and younger generations today than there ever has been, for a number of reasons. This really manifests itself in the agent world. In this industry, you find that agents in their 40s and 50s have less success connecting with today’s athlete. While contract expertise is valuable, it has no value if you don’t have an ace recruiter. Younger agents who were once happy to bide their time with big firms, bringing them top players and accepting what was left over as compensation, aren’t happy with that anymore.
  • This business is really hard, so you want control of your own destiny: The biggest disconnect I’ve seen between the football fan and the football business member is a misunderstanding of the player mindset. There’s a perception that agents and their active NFL clients are always ‘palling’ around, hanging out, and otherwise enjoying a relationship built on mutual respect and fondness. It’s the Jerry Maguire model, and it’s usually not accurate. Typically, the higher the player gets drafted, the less he feels the agent was central to the process, and the more he expects his agent to be out there finding him marketing dollars and otherwise justifying his existence. There’s a sense of entitlement that can be confounding. When you have to deal with that on a day-to-day basis, you want to make sure you’re being compensated at the highest rate possible.

 

Finding sleepers

14 Monday Jul 2014

Posted by itlneil in Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

NFL Prospects, NFL Scouting

If there’s one question I always get, especially from my newer agent clients but also from my more seasoned ones, it’s ‘how do you find a sleeper?’ Where are the seniors who come out of nowhere, climb the charts over the last weeks of the season, test well, and wind up on NFL rosters?

I can’t say I have the answer to that. In fact, at last year’s combine, I had lunch with one of the more seasoned scouts in the game, a great guy and a great friend. I asked him this question, and he didn’t really have an answer, either. In discussing it with him, my takeaway was that most teams spend about two-thirds of their time on the guys who’ll be taken in the top third of the draft roughly, i.e., rounds 1-3. Most teams see these guys as the real difference-makers, the players that will make or break their rosters, so they want to spend an inordinate amount of time on these particular players. The ones who go in rounds 4-7 — most typically the players we’d characterize as sleepers — aren’t seen as players who will help you win titles. They may be solid starters in time, and might even develop into stars, but the risk isn’t worth the reward, generally. Teams get busy, they can’t apply the resources to evaluating everybody, and players fall through the cracks.

So what’s the best way to find guys that are ‘under the radar’ or ‘off the grid?’ Here’s my take on it.

  • One way is to find players who were jucos that don’t have a lengthy body of work at the four-year college level and bloom late. I know there is very little evaluation done at the JC level, mostly because players don’t go from a juco to the draft very often.
  • A second way is to find a college basketball player who just switched to football (i.e., the Saints’ Jimmy Graham or Chargers’ Antonio Gates). There’s a tight end at Indianapolis, Erik Swoope, whom we’ve mentioned previously that fits this profile for the 2014 draft class.
  • Another way is to find players who didn’t play football until college, or very little high school ball, especially if they came from other countries (a la Detroit’s Zeke Ansah or Indy’s Bjoern Woerner or Oakland’s Menelik Watson, all from the ‘13 draft class).
  • A fourth way is to find guys who switched to impact positions late (usually before their senior seasons, but maybe even mid-season). These are typically tight ends who move to OT, or maybe DTs who move to OG, or whatever. Less frequently, you find RBs or WRs that move to CB, or even QBs who move to WO. But all of these qualify.
  • The fifth way is to find a good player at an un-sexy position – he’s good, but not high-impact – who plays either in the far Northeast (Maine/New Hampshire/Rhode Island, etc.) or the Southwest/Mountain West (West Texas/Utah/Nevada/New Mexico/Idaho/Montana/Dakotas). A good example for the ’14 draft class is New Mexico C Dillon Farrell, who signed with the 49ers as an undrafted free agent this spring. They’re trying him at tackle.
  • A sixth way is to find pure track stars that will ‘test out of the gym’ but who aren’t really ‘football players’ yet (but want to give it a try). Florida WR Jeff Demps is an example of this from the ’13 draft class; he’s a guy that’s got great tools that is still developing as a player.

There may be other ways. I know no one has the ‘patent’ on this, but these seem to be the patterns for most players who come out of nowhere, figuratively speaking, and enjoy NFL success.

WSW: Pursuing a passer

09 Wednesday Jul 2014

Posted by itlneil in Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

NFL Prospects, NFL Scouting

We’ve kind of danced around over the past couple weeks, touching on agent topics one day and scout topics the next, and rarely keeping a steady narrative. Once again, we’ll step away from our recent path for a story about agent recruiting.

I remember in the Fall of 2007 or 2008 watching a mid-week college game pitting Nevada and another mid-major team from out West, and the Wolfpack’s quarterback was sensational. His name was Colin Kaepernick, and he was tall and rangy (the new draft buzzword is “length”) and could really run. In fact, he left the pocket for several long gainers during the game. He also had a rocket for an arm; the broadcasters said he had an extensive baseball background with a fastball in the 90s, and I believed it. Though he ran an offense some considered gimmicky (the Pistol) and was still pretty raw, he had undeniable tools and was very productive. I filed him away mentally as a player to watch.

Sometime in late 2010, I remember speaking to Scott Smith of XAM Sports, and he let slip that he’d been recruiting Kaepernick. I was really enthusiastic about Kaep and I let him know, and pretty soon we were recounting how each of us had seen that same mid-week game some years ago and really become excited about his potential. As we continued our discussion, it became pretty clear that XAM had made recruiting Kaep the centerpiece of its efforts for the 2011 NFL draft, and though several mid-sized firms had reached out to the family, Scott liked his chances, having developed an excellent rapport with his parents. That turned out to be a real winning formula, as Kaep was leaning on his mom and dad to handle the vetting process for him.

As his senior season progressed and it became obvious that he was a special player, some of the big firms moved in. I remember finding out that CAA’s Ken Kremer entered the recruiting process very late and made a strong push because the agency had (and has) so much juice, but eventually, Scott called me to tell me XAM was getting Kaepernick. He signed, was drafted early in the second round by the 49ers in 2011, and remains a player who’s not ‘there’ yet, but whose needle is certainly pointing up. You could certainly argue that he’s the best quarterback in his draft class.

It’s truly a rarity for a mid-sized firm to ‘steal’ a big player, but it was a bit of a perfect storm of conditions surrounding Kaep. They were:

His head coach, Chris Ault, is old-school, with no agent ties: Many big-school head coaches make little or no secret of their relationships to agents and regularly make referrals. There are absolutely no rules restricting this practice. However, Nevada’s head coach at the time is not that way. Not at all.

Parents played a key role: Sometimes, a player’s parents make no effort to get educated or assist in the process. Even when they do, many prospects make their agent choices without consulting their parents. Neither was the case with Kaep. His parents were an essential part of the process.

He played at remote school: Even in the age of air travel and the Internet, prospects who play at schools in the less populous states in the Southwest and ‘Mountain West’ — Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, etc. — are more prone to getting overlooked, both by NFL scouts and agents.

He was rated as barely draftable: Agents lean heavily on the ratings services the NFL uses to gauge players’ ability going into their senior seasons, and he was registering as a seventh-rounder who was firmly on the draft bubble going into his senior season.

Other QBs were getting all the press: Remember, in ’11, Cam Newton was the clear ‘it’ player and went No. 1 overall, and three other signal-callers went in the first round (Locker, Gabbert and Ponder), all from BCS schools with strong pedigrees. It’s been my experience that the media, and even NFL teams in some cases, get more excited about junior prospects as there’s some measure of ‘senior fatigue.’ Kaepernick was perceived as far less safe than the five signal-callers (Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder and Dalton) who went before him.

We’ll have more about the game inside the game Thursday.

Newer posts →

Archives

Inside the League

Inside the League

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.

Privacy & Cookies: This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this website, you agree to their use.
To find out more, including how to control cookies, see here: Cookie Policy
  • Subscribe Subscribed
    • Succeed in Football
    • Join 90 other subscribers
    • Already have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.
    • Succeed in Football
    • Subscribe Subscribed
    • Sign up
    • Log in
    • Report this content
    • View site in Reader
    • Manage subscriptions
    • Collapse this bar