I have to spend most of my summer focused on NFL scouting movement and NFL Agent Exam prep, so I tend to get a little behind in the fast-moving football business world. For that reason, this time of year, I’m trying to get caught up. 

To do that, I had a few conversations with three established members of the NIL and marketing world as it relates to pro and college football. What I wanted to gain was a better understanding of where college football is headed and how it will impact the pro football world. Here are six points they made:

  • The numbers that players are getting right now are not sustainable, and that goes, especially, for transfers. “I know some middle-level guys getting $20,000 per month,” said one source. “But that all depends on the school and when they came in. Transfers are getting crazy deals. It’s harder for the guys currently at schools. Some of the top offensive linemen in high school are getting close to 7-figure offers.” That’s starting to squeeze the collectives, most of whom have a 501(c)3 structure right now. We could see them go to more of an agency model so, rather than asking a big local business for a donation, they would instead solicit them for an advertising project of some kind. “Donor fatigue is real,” said one source. “Everyone I have spoken to at the colleges says there is no way they can keep raising $14 million every year to pay players.” 
  • That’s not to say collectives (or schools) will stop asking for donations. Right now, the numbers demanded by today’s star college player way outsize the value of a typical NIL deal. In other words, if a starting tackle wants $200,000 on an NIL deal, no business is gonna pay that for a couple tweets or an in-person appearance (“I think we are starting to see some of the small mom/pop NIL ‘agents’ go away . . .  as the kids learn the realities of the deals they are entering into,” added one source). That’s why there will still have to be some supplementation by donors or some kind of aggregation of advertisers to reach higher NIL thresholds. Those donors just won’t be able to write off their gifts on their taxes. Obviously, that’s a harder ask.
  • It probably doesn’t matter, anyway, because we’re starting to see schools become their own collectives, structuring themselves more as marketing agencies. This is why you saw Notre Dame hire an athletic director who came from NBC Sports. One expert I spoke to said we could see collectives disappear from the landscape within two years. “I don’t know how long (collectives) can/will last, and the landscape is changing,” said one of my sources. 
  • As these schools become populated with more and more advertising and marketing folks and fewer people with backgrounds in coaching and athletics, we’re going to see the money in the industry skyrocket. If you think the numbers are high now, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
  • This will require the federal government to get involved, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It will mean a more unified system of laws (no more 50 states and 50 laws) and, perhaps, a body with subpoena power that can actually enforce rules, unlike the NCAA, which is well-intentioned but, in all too many cases, toothless.
  • No matter what the NCAA or the bigger schools say for the record, they’re warming to the idea of revenue-sharing with players. That might come in the form of a $30,000 “stipend” for every member of the team plus a piece of uniform sales when a big-name  player’s jersey sells. That could come within 2-3 years. “They need to come up with money somewhere else,” said one source. “I think that will come in the form of (revenue sharing) with athletes on ticket sales, merchandise and media rights. I think there will be a trade made that will give the NCAA an anti-trust exemption in trade for the players getting a piece of the pie.”

So how does this affect NFL player representation, which is our main focus? That’s something we’ll look at later, perhaps next week, perhaps in this space. Stay tuned. In the meantime, make sure you’re signed up for our weekly newsletter, the Friday Wrap, which you can do here.