I’ve said this a lot, maybe even in this space, but one of the best things about working in this game is that the learning never stops. That was especially true as I wrote my third (and latest) book, Value Picks, which is available on Amazon right now.

Here are a few things I gathered while putting the book together.

Few teams practice BPA: Every team likes to claim that it took the “best player on the board” at each turn, but that’s just not true. Numerous teams passed on Alabama’s Derrick Henry because they felt set at running back; credit to the Titans for taking him despite planning on making the recently acquired DeMarco Murray their bell cow in 2016. Several teams also overlooked Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott simply because they were set at QB. Not the Cowboys, who had a proven veteran in Tony Romo (though, admittedly, Romo was beset with injuries that eventually ended his career).

Workouts matter: There’s a segment of the scouting community that likes to laugh off the Combine as the “underwear Olympics.” However, as part of former Bears scout Chris Prescott’s chapter late in the book, he dismissed Florida LB Antonio Morrison as a fourth-round possibility because he “was a polarizing player who didn’t work out well.” On the other hand, he says of Texas Tech’s Jakeem Grant (who went 6/186 to the Dolphins) “I remember we didn’t really love him, then he pops whatever 40 time that was, and we kinda got on him late because of how fast he was.” As a receiver with iffy hands who didn’t return punts, if Grant goes out and runs a 4.4, he’s probably a UDFA who’s on a short leash in rookie camp. As it was, because he showed sub-4.2 speed in Lubbock at his pro day, he was given enough runway to develop into a second-team All-Pro in 2020.

Winning involves risk: I devoted a chapter to West Alabama’s Tyreek Hill, who had serious baggage entering the 2016 draft. Most teams wouldn’t touch him due to his character blemishes, but one did, Kansas City. I’d argue that they reaped considerable benefits from rolling the dice. On the other hand, the Saints got feedback from their sources at Ohio State that Michael Thomas could be difficult. Again, they rolled the dice, and for the first few seasons, they were big winners. Ultimately, however, his conduct became a problem. It’s arguable whether his actions outweighed his production, but they definitely got some negative along with the positive. Still, both teams were rewarded, to some degree, by taking a gamble.

Scouts are mostly right: A lot of people aren’t going to want to hear this, but scouts are right more often than not. Draft picks don’t fail in a vacuum. There are reasons some players lose their motivation when they make the money that comes with being an NFL draftee. However, maybe more often, they lose their effectiveness due to injury, multiple scheme changes/poor system fit, or other factors that go unnoticed. Usually, a player’s failing in the league were predicted somewhere in the reports filed by evaluators.