Thinking Through A Few Corona-Related Football Issues

01 Friday May 2020

Posted by in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

Now that the draft is over, there’s been a kind of return to reality for those of us who work in football. It’s given me a chance to have plenty of conversations about the direction many things will take in the wake of the national quarantines. Here are my thoughts, and the thoughts I’ve gotten back from others, on where several issues stand.

  • Supplemental Draft: There’s been a lot of talk that the NFL may allow top NCAA players to enter the supplemental draft, but there are several problems with that. No. 1, traditionally, a player has to have a “change in status” before he’s allowed draft eligibility, and short of the NCAA cancelling the season, that’s not happening. What’s more, the NFL has always tried to forge a delicate balance with the NCAA, and if the league peeled off all of college football’s top players — just when all of college athletics needs football most — I could see teams shuttering their practices and offices to scouts entirely.
  • Rookie camps: I addressed this in Tuesday’s Rep Rumblings report, but bottom line, California and New York look like two states that are a long way from reopening, and for different reasons, the Saints and Jets won’t be having rookie camps (at least, traditional ones). That means six teams can’t have rookie camps and two more won’t. I don’t see the Competition Committee allowing anything that goes counter to a level playing field.
  • Name/Image/Likeness: There’s been a lot of discussion of the NIL issue as it moved farther along the course this week, and some are alarmed while others are celebratory. I almost see the changes as a benefit for the agent business because the one thing I hear from agents every day is that their clients expect them to pile up a mountain of marketing money as soon as they reach the NFL. By 2023, the Joe Burrows of the world — touchdown-scorers on major BCS programs — will make nice side money during their college days. The Mekhi Bectons and the Tristan Wirfs — super-talented players at non-sexy positions in non-sexy markets — will not. Maybe NFL players will have a better understanding of their relative marketability as a result of this.
  • Agencies: The draft gave a business-as-usual veneer to the NFL last week. However, I’ve had several conversations with contract advisors over the last 2-3 weeks, and they all say the same thing: we’re about to find out who really has resources and who doesn’t. My read is that the quarantine is going to heavily exacerbate the gap between the haves and the have-nots, most of whom needed rookie camps and OTAs to help their clients make rosters.
  • Combine prep facilities: I’ve seen two rather desperate Facebook posts this week from trainers who can’t reopen because their businesses have been deemed non-essential. I know agents hate to hear this, but most training facilities are run on rather narrow margins. I could see fewer combine prep facilities after all this is over. If fewer agencies are willing to pay for training next year, that could be a 1-2 punch.
  • Scouting changes: Normally by now, several teams have turned over their scouting staffs, or at least made a few cosmetic changes. Not so this year. So far, we’ve only seen one change, with maybe 1-2 more on the way. I’ve heard some teams have instituted hiring freezes, while others are probably leery of the media chiding them for making cuts during such an uncertain time.
  • NFL agent exam: At some point soon, we’re supposed to find out if the NFLPA will proceed with the agent exam, which is normally in July in Washington, D.C. This seems to be headed to some form of online testing. The NFLPA conducted a continuing education exam for veteran agents a couple years ago which was all online, so the template is already there. It would just mean the PA would have to move the attending pre-exam seminar online, as well.

We’ve got a long way to go before everything is worked out. Like everyone else, I’m hoping we’re not about to see seismic changes in college and NFL schedules, the agency landscape, scouting lineups and everything else associated with the football business.

As more issues crop up and there’s more clarity on some of these topics, we’ll address them. In the meantime, make sure you’re registered for our weekly newsletter, the Friday Wrap, to get a regular look at what’s going on in the business.

Ask an NFL Agent: Highlights of our Zoom Session with Priority Sports’ Mike McCartney

23 Thursday Apr 2020

Posted by in Agents

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

If there’s one thing new agents always ask me, it’s this: how do I ask an established agent the hard questions about the business that no one wants to answer? I’ll admit it’s one question for which I have no answer. That’s why it was pretty awesome when, out of the blue, Chicago-based Mike McCartney of Priority Sports reached out to me last week and offered to answer questions from agents in a Zoom session.

This was a real coup. As the son of a legendary former college head coach, Mike is not only a member of football royalty, a former NFL scout himself, and the man who negotiated one of the most lucrative contracts in NFL history, but a 20-year contract advisor and member of a top NFL agency (by our metrics, Priority has been the 11th-best agency on draft day since 2007). When, last Friday, we put the word out that we’d be hosting a Zoom session with Mike on Tuesday, we had immediate responses from almost 20 agents. We thought we might have to turn some down (though we ultimately did not).

We chose not to record the session so Mike would feel fee to provide ultimate candor. However, here are a few nuggets from the hour he spent with 17 mostly new NFL agents.

  • The key to success as an agent is signing players that NFL teams want. It follows that knowing NFL scouts who will recommend players is critical, so it made sense agents would ask Mike about that. Predictably, he didn’t have a ‘magic bullet’ solution. The only way that I, personally, made friends in the scouting world is two ways: time and credibility. Mike essentially echoed that. I guess, if you’re a new agent, your job is to find 1-2 players in your first years on the job that somehow crack the NFL scouting bubble. Once you are somewhat proven to scouts, they’ll begin to have a more reciprocal relationship with you.
  • Another thing Mike was adamant about: never lie to scouts. He said that if he has a client who’s not fast, he’s not going to try to convince teams the player can zoom. Instead, Mike will emphasize his client’s positive qualities. God knows one of the themes of the 2020 draft season has been the questionable times posted on social media.
  • If you can’t sign a player with excellent triangle numbers, find a player who has heart and grit. In 2002, his rookie year as an agent, Mike signed a quarterback out of Sam Houston State, Josh McCown. McCown was a player who had transferred to SHSU from SMU for his senior season and lit things up, but he was still mostly an unknown. Mike badgered the head of National Football Scouting at the time, Duke Babb, to let McCown be one of the passers who throw the ball in drills at the combine, and Babb consented. On the last day of the combine, defensive backs were going through drills, and the three passers needed to heave 80 deep balls as part of the drill inventory. For whatever reason, the other two quarterbacks begged off, so McCown threw all 80. Babb was so appreciative that he flew McCown home first class, and he wasn’t the only one that took notice: McCown went from a probably UDFA to a third-round pick (3/81) by the Cardinals.
  • Speaking of UDFAs, Mike has a very regimented process he goes through with his clients who are Day 3 guys. He essentially prepares them for the worst-case scenario (that they are “eighth-round picks”) and sets up the NFL in three tiers: 4-5 teams that are the absolute best fits for his client, a second group of teams that are good-but-not-great fits, and a third that includes the rest of teams. He then gets on the phone with scouts from his top-tier teams and makes sure he’s on the same page with them as far as his client’s strengths and weaknesses, as well as the team’s depth chart at the player’s position.
  • Also: he said that a GM or scout who wants your client isn’t nearly as good as a coach who does. Mike even said that, during the post-draft UDFA process, he has asked scouts to walk down the hall and specifically ask the team’s position coach if he wanted his client. If the coach seemed lukewarm, he passed on signing with the team. He said it’s absolutely essential that your client’s position coach is excited about coaching your client.
  • As far as this draft, he sees most Day 3 picks as long shots to make teams, to say nothing of the UDFAs. Think about that. Due to the uncertainty and probable lack of rookie camps this year (and spare number of physicals), teams will lean more toward veterans and the best of the best draft picks on cutdown day this fall. I’d agree with him. It’s just one more reason it’s incredibly hard to be a new agent this year.

We’ll talk more about Mike’s words of wisdom in this week’s Friday Wrap, which you can register for here. Happy Draft Day!

ITL Zoom Scouting Meetup: Some Words of Wisdom from ex-NFL Scout Bob Morris

15 Wednesday Apr 2020

Posted by in Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

Tuesday night, we had our first Zoom meet-up for aspiring NFL scouts. I hosted it with guest Bob Morris, a longtime friend who’s spent time in the Alliance of American Football and XFL as well as 15 years in the league with the Browns and 49ers. You might also have seen him on our Twitter feed, as he led several ITL-assisted pro days over the last three weeks (like this one).

Bob spent an hour with five members of the college personnel community (Austin Schaffer of Cincinnati, Price Burton of Toledo, Drew Hixson of Kansas, Connor Anderson of Texas State and Zach Gold of Temple). Here are a few takeaways.

  • One question we got was, how do you make your case to a coach when the analytics fit but the coach rejects the player, or vice versa? Bob said it’s best to sit with the coach and calmly make your case. If you can point to a previous player that fits your mold and turned out to be a success, that’s the best way. Examples always trump theory, obviously.
  • Bob was also asked how old is too old when it comes to pursuing a scouting career. He didn’t put a number on things, instead referring to family and relationships to make that decision. With that said, teams are hiring younger and younger evaluators; it’s as simple as that. Bob also observed that, more and more, the job vacated by a veteran scout as he moves from Team A to Team B is usually filled from within by a scouting assistant at Team A.
  • Bob also guarded against spending too much time in self-promotion. He said longtime college head coach Bill Mallory (Indiana, Colorado, Miami of Ohio, Northern Illinois), who served as a mentor of sorts for Bob, always told him to let his work be his sales pitch.
  • One way to do that, Bob said, is to be totally prepared when a scout is in the building. Anticipate what he’ll need, what questions he’ll ask, and where he’ll need to go when he’s making his rounds, whether or not you’re the NFL liaison. I know that’s common sense, but it’s still true.
  • He also said that, while in San Francisco, GM Trent Baalke would ask all the scouts if there was someone they’d met on the road who had what it took to work for the 49ers. Bob mentioned Niners area scout Steve Rubio, formerly the director of player personnel at Tennessee, as one scout who made his way up that way.
  • Also common sense: if you’re at a school with more talent, you’ll have a better chance of getting recognized. Personnel directors and NFL liaisons at Alabama, Ohio State and Texas stand a better chance of becoming scouts because they’re just going to get more face time with NFL evaluators.

This won’t be our last meet-up, and I look forward to connecting other former members of the NFL scouting world with aspiring scouts from the college evaluation community. Interested in joining us? Hit us up on Twitter or contact us here.

Catching Up With Seven Draft Services’ Post-Combine Mocks

10 Friday Apr 2020

Posted by in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

Early in March, we started tracking the post-combine mock drafts of the seven services we’ve been following for two years now. Then the coronavirus happened, and all our efforts went into trying to fill the pro day gap.

This week, we’re trotting our grid back out, dusting it off and giving it a look. Next week, we’ll look at the last round of mocks (by the same services) for the last time before NFL teams do it for real the last weekend of the month.

Here’s what we found in this month’s mocks.

  • This is something we’ll be watching more closely going forward, but one trend we detected was a great level of similarity between mock drafts (OK, we weren’t surprised that much, either, but still). Every one of the seven services we surveyed in their first mock draft of March had LSU’s Joe Burrow No. 1 overall. Six of seven had Ohio State’s Chase Young at No. 2 (hello, PFF). Four other players received the same top-10 grades from at least four of the services, including Clemson’s Isaiah Simmons (Tony Pauline, Matt Miller of Bleacher Report, ESPN’s Todd McShay and Sports Illustrated all at No. 4); Auburn’s Derrick Brown (Pauline, Miller, McShay and Walter Football have him at No. 7); Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs (Pauline, PFF, Brugler and Sports Illustrated at 8); and Alabama’s Jedrick Wills (No. 10 according to Pauline, PFF, Brugler and McShay).
  • Georgia’s Andrew Thomas at 11 (Pauline, PFF, Brugler, Miller and Walter); Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy at 12 (according to PFF, Miller, Sports Illustrated and Walter); Alabama’s Henry Ruggs III at 15 (PFF, Brugler, McShay and Walter) have also drawn some sort of consensus.
  • For what it’s worth, three services have been on the “Burrow is No. 1” express since October: PFF, Sports Illustrated and Walter. McShay was one of the early adopters, too, but got off the train in December (Young) before re-boarding pre-combine.
  • If you’re looking for a draft expert who most closely resembles an analytics model, look to Brugler, who has 12 picks (1, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 15, 19, 22 and 29) in common with Pro Football Focus. I should note that there was a pretty major “clustering” among the draft experts post-combine, and I presume that if I reviewed last year’s totals, we’d see the same thing.
  • Overall, we saw a “narrowing” of the board among the seven services, with 20 players on all seven services’ top 32. Just missing were Alabama FS Xavier McKinney (snubbed only by Pauline) and Oklahoma OB Kenneth Murray (not rated by McShay).
  • Also, only three players (Wisconsin OB Zach Baun and OC Tyler Biadasz; Oregon OG Shane Lemieux; Alabama DT Raekwon Davis; Dugger and Gallimore) were on only one board. Baun was 30 by Brugler; Biadasz 31 and Lemieux 27 per Walter Football; Pauline listed Davis at 23; Dugger was 28 on the PFF mock; and Gallimore was 25 according to Sports Illustrated).
  • New entries to mock drafts were Clemson DC A.J. Terrell (No. 20 according to Miller, 27 for PFF, 32 for Brugler); Boise St. OT Ezra Cleveland (No. 29 per PFF and Brugler, 31 on Pauline’s board); Lenoir-Rhyne SS Kyle Dugger (No. 28 according to PFF) and Oklahoma DT Neville Gallimore (No. 25 to Sports Illustrated).

We’ve given the services a more extensive look in today’s Friday Wrap, which comes out this evening (6:30 p.m. CT). As always, you can register for it here.

How Will the Coronavirus Impact NFL Scouting and Agent Practices? Three Possibilities

03 Friday Apr 2020

Posted by in Agents, Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, ,

What will life look like on the other side of the coronavirus — presuming we ever get there? I don’t know. But I’m willing to make a few predictions on how football will change, especially as it relates to how agents, scouts and trainers work. Here are a few.

Video visits will become capped: Now that we’re all more comfortable with Zoom, it’s become a lot easier to work remotely. Before this year, the only way teams could bring a player “in-house” was with their allotted 30 visits in March and April. Teams are getting around this now, however, with Zoom visits; New Orleans Football chronicled a detailed visit the Saints had with Utah St. QB Jordan Love this week. The NFL’s Competition Committee is pretty rigid about eliminating any advantages one team might have over another. I could see the league either lumping these in with the 30 visits, or creating a new rule for total number of virtual visits.

Trainers will put in a coronavirus clause: Combine prep trainers are the IRS of the agent industry. Many complain about them and feel like they are way too much trouble  and demand too much money. I wonder if contract advisors still feel this way after several trainers have risked state sanctions to open their venues for workouts, or have reached out to me to find ex-scouts to run pro days. Most trainers are excellent at what they do, but they don’t have big staffs who can set up pro days. It’s the kind of mission creep trainers hate, but that agents expect. Trainers often struggle just to get payment for their services; I could see most of them strictly defining their services going forward, and restricting all provision of services beyond training until they’ve received full compensation.

Traditional scouting becomes newly valued: About two-thirds of pro days were cancelled this year, which means there’s a drastic cutback on the triangle numbers of hundreds of prospects. This means there will be a lot more evaluation done the old-fashioned way. My hope is that teams use this time to reinforce old-style film breakdown with the new wave of young scouts who’ve been hired the last 4-5 years. I also hope that teams draw on their scouting reports rather than falling in love with a prospect’s well-rehearsed in-person interview. Finally, I hope it also means some veterans get extended, or at least not axed. You gotta keep some of the gray-haired guys around sometimes. They have something to offer.

We’ll take a further look at how people in the game are dealing with the crisis today in the Friday Wrap, which comes out this evening. If you haven’t already, register for it here.

2020 NFL Draft Process, Coronavirus Edition: How Scouts, Agents, Players Are Adjusting

27 Friday Mar 2020

Posted by in Agents, Coaches, Scouts

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

, , ,

Obviously we’re in an unprecedented time. Here are a few observations on how the football world is shifting to accommodate the coronavirus situation, and how we’re trying to be a small part of the solution.

  • It looked bad for open venues this week, so we moved several up in an attempt to stay ahead of the closings. As a result, we were able to get two in on Tuesday in Dallas and one in Tampa, thanks to former NFL evaluators Bob Morris (Browns, 49ers) and Richard Shelton (Titans). Bob handled things in Dallas and Richard in Tampa. Unfortunately, our instincts were correct. We had a workout in New Orleans slated for today, but the venue was shuttered on Thursday. We’re hoping two pro days we have scheduled for today in Atlanta go off without a hitch (ex-Raiders scout Von Hutchins and Mike Hagen, last with the Chiefs, are calling the shots there).
  • Because we’ve brought in former NFL personnel to run these pro days — sort of serving as a ‘proctor’ for the big exams — we’ve gotten good feedback from NFL teams. Contacts with two teams have asked for all the numbers from our scouts’ pro days, and we’ve been happy to oblige. Meanwhile, our RT of a Twitter post on another player drew an immediate response from a director-level scout with another team. If you’re a player or agent, don’t think for a minute that teams aren’t working overtime to make the best of these strange circumstances.
  • We’re pretty excited about the response we’ve gotten on our Google Form that will supplement the work the APT Coalition (the consortium of NFL scouts that shares pro day information during a normal March) normally does. We’ve gotten more than 300 players’ information so far with about 48 hours to go before we pull the plug and ship it out to all 32 teams. “Through your help, I’m down to 27 players that I need draft info for,” said one scout that we’ve been trying to help with player, agent and college contacts. We’re hoping that after this weekend, those remaining 27 players’ contacts (and their agents, of course) are in his notebook.
  • One note about that Google form: a handful of agents included their contact info but not their players’ contacts. While we understand that they represent the players, scouts are not going to want to have to go through a third party to collect simple information about draft prospects over the next month before the draft. We’ve removed all entries that omitted players’ info, but not to worry: we’ll send out the form one last time this evening.
  • Of course, if you’d like to update things immediately, we also sent out the link to all NFLPA-licensed contract advisors last Friday at 6:30 p.m., Monday at 6 a.m. and Wednesday at 6 a.m. (all times central). The link is somewhere in your inbox if you’re a licensed agent, so check your trash.
  • We’re hoping to be part of a national solution to the lack of pro days in mid-April. We’re working on a project that, hopefully, can bring a neutral, professionally run local workout to hundreds of players. Fingers crossed, of course, that we’ll have open venues and some return to normalcy by Easter.

That’s all we have so far. Hopefully, we’re still moving in the right direction. For more on how “the new normal” is affecting the data-gathering process and how teams are adapting, check out today’s Friday Wrap. You can register for it here.

 

Three Reasons Why This Is A Horrible Time to be NFL Draft-Eligible

20 Friday Mar 2020

Posted by in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

If you’ve followed me on Twitter or read our content at Inside the League, you know I’ve been painting this coronavirus situation as especially dour for late-rounders. For those of you who don’t fully understand, let me explain myself.

Scouts are not going to have the access they usually have: One of the big benefits of pro days is that NFL teams gather reliable contact and agent information for literally thousands of players they might consider as undrafted free agents. The game plan to to fix this, as I wrote about here, is to call the colleges and ask them. This is a problem, however, because (a) a lot of NFL liaisons aren’t in the office these days and (b) most of them couldn’t tell you who represents their draft prospects. In all candor, most don’t seem to care and/or have other things they’d rather focus on. I can see lots of otherwise capable players falling through the cracks. But that’s not all the bad news.

Closing gyms is gonna have consequences: What if you were an agent? You spent around $10,000 per player to get him ready for his pro day, then just as he’s ready to go, half of the workouts are wiped out. Going on a three-mile run around the neighborhood does nothing to keep your starts crisp and your jumps explosive. If pro days do return, they won’t be back for at least two weeks. By then, some players won’t have trained for around a month. It’s almost like the money is down the drain.

No rookie mini-camps equals no tryout opportunities: Remember when Pete Carroll tried to pass on the goal line instead of giving it to Marshawn? The guy who swooped in for the pick, Malcolm Butler, was an ex-tryout player. In fact, we’ve told his story in this space. Dozens of players that go on to become reliable special-teamers, and sometimes even starters, began as guys who went to camp without a contract. Here are a few other names of ex-tryout players. Unless things change drastically (and quickly), rookie mini-camps will be a casualty of the coronavirus. If you’re a person who reads this space regularly, you know how that impacts the hopes of hundreds of NFL hopefuls this spring.

In the grand scheme of things, this is probably nothing, I know. But we don’t write about the grand scheme of things here at Inside the League. We focus on the business of the game, and there’s just no way to candycoat the obstacles so many players will face this year.

Read more about the strangest NFL draft season ever in this week’s Friday Wrap, which comes out at 6:30 p.m. CT. You can register for it here.

 

 

Ask the Scouts: How Does the Coronavirus Shutdown Affect the NFL Draft?

13 Friday Mar 2020

Posted by in Scouts

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

,

The coronavirus is here. Some famous people have contracted it. Some people (the elderly, the infirm, the very young) are especially vulnerable to it. Social distancing, hand-washing and other measures are important. If you’re already sick, you need to stay home, and take every precaution to not make others ill. All of this we know.

Still, sometimes, there’s a thin line between caution and panic, and we don’t live in a vacuum. We won’t know for weeks, maybe years, if the various league shutdowns, postponements and delays were warranted, but we know, categorically, that the response to the medical emergency will have an unintended impact on many people. Among them are the thousands of players competing to land on 90-man rosters in 41 days.

Without trivializing those for whom coronavirus may prove harmful or fatal, we reached out to several NFL scouts to see how the cancellation of pro days and T-30 visits would affect the draft. Did they see it having a substantial impact?

  • “Hard to say. Like the spread of the virus itself, lots of unknowns. (T-30) visits are a great opportunity for many to endear themselves to decision-makers above and beyond the tape. Pro days can have the same effects on area scouts, where a positive impression can motivate a scout to push all-in on a recommendation.”
  • “Really will affect the guys who would’ve tested well who were under the radar who warrant another look, as well as the small-school guys who pop out of nowhere. Film will matter more than ever for sure.”
  • “Uncharted territory. We would probably be more accurate if we drafted now before the fog of confusion sets in. They haven’t played a game since January. Biggest concern would be medical scores for non-combine guys.”
  • “It’s going to have an effect across the board. Teams won’t be able to relieve character or mental concerns on players who they have questions on. Late-round and undrafted guys who can usually separate themselves by testing well won’t have that opportunity. Who knows how combine medical rechecks will be effected?”
  • “Huge repercussions. Affects every level of the draft. The film will take precedence. Combine performances will be bigger influences now, more than pro days. Teams always want more info, (and) they’ll feel restricted.”

We’ll look at the impact the of the virus and the way various schools, conferences and leagues have responded to it in today’s Friday Wrap. It comes out this evening at 6:30 p.m., and if you’re in the business (or aspire to be), we encourage you to check it out. You can register for it here.

 

Mock Draft Philosophy: An Interview with The Athletic’s Ben Standig

06 Friday Mar 2020

Posted by in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

If you follow this blog, you know our 11th annual seminar, the TEST Football Academy ITL Combine Seminar, was last week. This year, we took a slightly different tack and handed out several awards in an effort to recognize excellence in the football industry.

One of those awards went to The Athletic’s Ben Standig, who won The Huddle Report’s mock draft contest for 2019. Mock drafts have simultaneously fascinated and vexed me for a long time. On one hand, they’re easy bait for clicks and follows, thoroughly enticing to fans (and therefore not for serious members of the football business community), and for the most part, no one ever reviews the work of the top names in the business. On the other hand, they’re undeniably fun, and some people (like Ben) are quite good at it.

Curious as to his methodology, I asked if he’d discuss his philosophy and strategy, and he was kind enough to discuss his mock draft aptitude with me this afternoon. Here are my questions and his answers.

As you complete your mock drafts, what is your ratio of talking to teams and getting a feel for what they’re gonna do vs. your own assessment of players and team needs? 

“Well, the first time I won the contest, it was 100 percent (my own study and assessment of team needs). I was the typical writer trying to figure this out. It’s still probably 80 percent me, and the other part is, when I do talk to teams, throwing out ideas (to them) and asking, what do you think? I don’t break down a ton of tape, but what I try to do is, figure out what are the teams looking for, what are the strengths and weaknesses in the class, and where does it make sense for a team to address their top needs vs. where can they wait and find that in later rounds.”

How much of your work is reading teams, trying to decide their draft-day patterns, and  predicting their selections based on previous philosophy and strategy?

“Sometimes there is that for sure, but there’s so much turnover. I mean, the team I cover (the Redskins) just changed their whole situation, and two other teams in their division changed head coaches. But yeah, there is something to be said for that. For example, with regards to the Redskins, I think I did 20 mocks last year. In the first 19, I had defensive players picked every single time, and then at the end, when I decided (Ohio State QB) Dwayne Haskins would be there, I thought, the owner would say, ‘let’s go with Haskins,’ and that’s what happened.”

What is your mix of your own analysis of players vs. what you think a team is gonna do?

“I would probably say my good fortune in these mocks is such a bizarre thing, but I often check my personal ego at the door. I never say, this player is better than another player, so I’m gonna put him ahead. I try to read the room. Just because I think Player X is better than Player Y, I’m not gonna go the other way (if I feel teams disagree). It’s reading of the room.”

I think one of the criticisms of mock drafts and the people who create them is that there is so much mimicry and outright stealing from others. How much do you look at others as you compose your mock drafts? 

“I certainly look. The reality is, there are people on the NFL Network and ESPN who are talking to way more people than I do. I have sources, but so do other people. They’re probably not overlapping, so it’s interesting to see what other people are saying, and what’s being thrown out there that doesn’t make sense and what does. I then run it all through my own filter, and this is gonna sound insane, but I kinda equate it to that scene in A Beautiful Mind when the numbers all seem to float around and then out to (the protagonist). He sees the puzzle. When I’m putting the pieces of the puzzle together, some things just seem to make sense. I can’t explain why. I had (Notre Dame DT) Jerry Tillery to the Chargers all 20 times I did a mock last year, and I can’t explain why, and then it happened. A lot of it is instinct.”

When the draft is about to start, do you usually think, OK, I got this? Or is there almost a sense of dread because something could happen and make you feel like you have no idea of what’s next?

“I have no idea (on draft day). Just one thing could change it. This year, I think everyone feels good about Burrow and Young 1-2, but if there’s a trade at 3, does the next team take (Ohio State’s Jeff) Okudah or (Alabama’s) Tua Tagovailoa? If Detroit were to trade up to 3 and take (Clemson’s Isaiah) Simmons or Tua, it doesn’t affect one pick, it affects several. You’re always one pick away from disaster. After the top 10, there’s much more randomness. I never feel great about these things.”

If you look at most mock drafts, the top 10 or so picks are very similar. It’s when you get into the back half of the first round that it gets tough. How are you able to have success in picks 16-32?

“I typically do two-round mock drafts; I leave it to others to go seven rounds. But two rounds is helpful because it gives me a feel for what are the strengths and weaknesses of the class. For example, for this draft class, in a normal year, (Alabama’s) Jerry Jeudy or (Oklahoma’s) CeeDee Lamb are locked into the top 10. But this year, because there are so many receivers, it feels like they’re gonna fall a little bit, maybe outside the top 10, because teams know they can get receivers down the line. If you want a pass rusher, there really aren’t that many past Chase Young. (LSU’s) K’Lavon Chaisson may be the next one, so if you want one of them, you might have to jump up earlier than you want. You just have to stay on top of the teams as much as possible. Once free agency starts, that will help a lot, too.”

Teams always pride themselves on taking the “best player available.” From your observations, is that true? 

“I’m always of the belief that it’s the best player available at a team’s position of need. If the best player available is a QB and you have Aaron Rodgers, are you gonna take a QB? I think that’s too dogmatic. I don’t think that makes logical sense, though there are some circumstances where that might change. To use the Redskins, you’d probably say their biggest strength is their defensive line, but they’re probably gonna take a defensive lineman because Chase Young is that good. It makes sense, he will help the team, but there are way many other positions they need besides defensive line. But he’s so good that to take another player would be a reach.”

Read more about our big night in Indianapolis, Ben’s acceptance of our award, and plenty of other good stuff about the football business in today’s Friday Wrap, which comes out this evening. You can register for it here.

2020 NFL Combine: 10 Thoughts After A Chilly Week In Indy

29 Saturday Feb 2020

Posted by in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Every year, the NFL Combine is a time for networking, renewing acquaintances, and of course, holding special events for our clients (we had three this year, more than we ever have). But it’s also a time for learning. Here are a handful of things that I thought were especially interesting.

  • We’ll have more of this in next week’s Friday Wrap (register for it here: http://tinyurl.com/qduqv7p), but our award winners Wednesday night were San Francisco, Best Draft 2019 Award (they won by just a single vote out of 108 votes cast by scouts); Bears Executive Scout Jeff Shiver, C.O. Brocato Memorial Award for Distinguished Service to Scouting; Arizona State Director of Athletics Ray Anderson, Eugene E. Parker Memorial Award for Lifetime Service to the NFL agent community; and Ben Standig, Best 2019 Mock Draft Award. It was an incredible night, and it meant a lot to have not only 49ers GM John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan attend, but for them to bring their entire scouting and coaching staffs, as well.
  • Today, I had a friend in the wealth management business tell me that players don’t hire them based on how much they know about money and investing. They hire them based on how much they like them. That’s an important distinction, and probably as good a description of why so many players get taken advantage of by unscrupulous money managers as any.
  • Here’s something a lot of NFL fans don’t know (and I didn’t know until today). Combine prep whiz Tony Villani of XPE Sports was discussing with me how the NFL has wised up and is now weighing players twice — once when they arrive (when they are “watered up” to appear bulky and thick) and once immediately before workouts. That’s an important distinction. I wonder if the NFL will start publishing the second weights?
  • In that vein, another trainer told me that one tight end lost 16 pounds between first and second weigh-ins. I don’t even know how that’s possible in three days.
  • One other thing — players are now arriving at the stadium four hours (!) before they actually run the 40. That’s a long time. Prior to this year, right before they ran, you’d see guys practicing their starts and getting stretched out in the hallways of the convention center and downtown hotels. This year, they have to do all that on their own once they actually check in for workouts. This might be reflected in performances.
  • Had an interesting talk with a handful of sports management students from Lynn University this week. Associate Professor Ted Curtis brought them there to really see what the combine looks and feels like. I’ve always wondered why more schools don’t do that. I mean, there’s another school offering a sports management major every day, yet you never see groups of students walking the halls of the Indiana Convention Center.
  • Had a growing agency ask me for referrals this week on young agents who are really on the rise. Was equally as rewarding to put four contract advisors with this firm as it was to be trusted for my insights. You can really only do that at combine time, when everyone is in town at the same time.
  • In our coach representation seminar on Wednesday, it was interesting to me that Chad Chatlos of Ventura Partners — who totally killed it, by the way — said that he’s getting more and more calls from athletic directors who are seeking superstar college personnel directors. Not surprised at all. People who’ve been reading us for a while now know we’ve been talking about this as a rising profession. I could see a day where colleges rely far less on the recruiting services and more on their own evaluation. In fact, after his coordinators and his strength coach, Chad said a head coach’s success is most contingent on who he hires as personnel director.
  • By the way, Chad presented and answered questions for about 90 minutes. I mean, if any of our attendees had any questions about how search firms work; how much they cost; how the college search process is conducted and how long it takes; what schools are looking for (and how they communicate that); the vagaries of identifying and hiring talented people; and how you can get your client needed exposure with the people doing hiring, I can’t imagine they still do. Chad was just phenomenal. And everyone there left with a valuable new contact.
  • Actually, two key contacts. It’s hard to imagine someone more composed, professional and organized than Northwestern’s Director of Player Personnel and Strategy, Cody Cejda (our other speaker). It’s easy to see why NU has “sent up” more personnel and operations assistants to be NFL scouts than any other school  in the last decade. As for South Carolina Senior Deputy AD Chance Miller, a longtime friend staggered by the flu this week, get well, soon, my man.

If you’re part of ITL (or would like to be), and I missed you this week, please accept my humble apologies. It’s just such a fast 3-4 days. But I look forward to catching up with you next year.