Another Way To Gauge Which Teams Draft Best

06 Thursday Oct 2016

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After dozens of conversations with scouts and executives around the game, it’s my impression that NFL teams mostly see seventh-round picks as lottery tickets. They’re high reward with low-to-no risk. They don’t usually make the roster for very long anyway, and just as importantly, the media never blames the GM when a seventh-rounder doesn’t pan out.

On the other hand, if you can hit with a seventh-rounder, you’ve done something special. Your scouting department sorted through the hundreds of players seen as undrafted free agents and picked the ones that could really make an impact. For that reason, I thought I’d take a look at the teams whose seventh-rounders have hung around the league most often.

  • What’s most interesting is that there’s a runaway winner. The Vikings have 10 seventh-rounders knocking around the league, either on the 53 or on practice squads.
  • The Seahawks are in second place with eight. This is interesting to me because, as we’ve seen, Seattle has been one of the most active teams in terms of relying on test scores and triangle numbers on draft day, maybe even more than performance or experience. The fact that eight players drafted in the last round by the ‘Hawks are still in the league tells me more and more teams are trying to copy their model.
  • The Raiders, Eagles and Steelers are tied for third with seven players. This is an indication that maybe the Eagles under head coach/GM Chip Kelly did better on draft day than Kelly did coaching his players on the field. It also tells me the Raiders  are turning things around under GM Reggie Mackenzie, and those results are starting to show on the field. The Steelers are the Steelers, one of the best franchise in the league for several years now, and their drafting acumen reflects that.
  • The Broncos are next with six, and that’s where the numbers get tougher to distill.
  • There are seven teams tied with five ‘sevens’ still in the league. They are the Falcons, Bills, Browns, Cowboys, Packers, 49ers and Titans. Of this group, the Cowboys, Packers and Niners have already shown that they know how to draft. The other teams aren’t known as ‘getting it’ on draft day, but maybe they should get more credit.
  • That’s the top third of the league. Now let’s take a look at the bottom third. Believe it or not, the Ravens have no seventh-rounders still active in the league. Without doing a lot of research, I don’t know if the team has gotten in the habit of trading its seventh-rounders or if the team has just rolled the dice far too often, but we couldn’t find any active as of the first week of the season. The team didn’t have a seventh-rounder this year.
  • The Giants and Buccaneers each have one seventh-rounder in the league, and that’s one reason why both teams, despite having franchise quarterbacks, are still inconsistent at best.

Take a look at the full list here.

Team Total
Minnesota Vikings 10
Seattle Seahawks 8
Philadelphia Eagles 8
Oakland Raiders 7
Pittsburgh Steelers 7
Denver Broncos 6
Atlanta Falcons 5
Buffalo Bills 5
Cleveland Browns 5
Dallas Cowboys 5
Green Bay Packers 5
San Francisco 49ers 5
Tennessee Titans 5
Carolina Panthers 4
Chicago Bears 4
Indianapolis Colts 4
Jacksonville Jaguars 4
Los Angeles Rams 4
Miami Dolphins 4
New England Patriots 4
New York Jets 4
Cincinnati Bengals 3
Detroit Lions 3
Houston Texans 3
New Orleans Saints 3
Washington Redskins 3
Arizona Cardinals 2
Kansas City Chiefs 2
San Diego Chargers 2
New York Giants 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1
Baltimore Ravens 0

 

 

A Three-Year Look at the NFL’s Stealth Success Metric

05 Wednesday Oct 2016

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On this blog, we’ve tried to highlight an overlooked metric that really correlates with NFL success. That metric is the total number of former draftees still in the league by team, and we’ve totaled up the numbers for three years running now.

This year, we moved our September roster analysis to our Friday Wrap email that chronicles the week in the football business (if you’re interested in receiving it, click here). However, we didn’t take a look at the last three years, so I decided to do that here. I think it gives a good look at which teams are doing things right on draft day, and how they’re being rewarded in the W-L area.

The numbers are below. Here are a few quick observations.

  • Most people expected the Vikings to struggle to win more than a handful of games this season after losing first Teddy Bridgewater, then A.P., by mid-September. However, the Vikes have been climbing the ladder when it comes to draftees in the league the last three years, going from No. 15 in 2014 to No. 8 last year and this year. Staying in the top half of the league all three years and in the top ten the last two has to be one reason the team has enjoyed such success.
  • The Vikings aren’t the only early-season success story that could have been predicted with the grid below. Check out the Eagles — despite some bumpy years under head coach/GM Chip Kelly the last few years, the team has done pretty well on draft day, and new head coach Doug Pederson has been able to take advantage of that. The consistent play of Carson Wentz so far has given the team just the bounce it needs.
  • Of the top ten teams listed below, only one (the Niners) hasn’t made the playoffs at least once in the last three years. Half have been to the playoffs at least twice, and the Packers, Bengals, Seahawks and Patriots have been all three years.
  • What’s more, the AFC East (Patriots), AFC North (Steelers and Ravens) and AFC South (Texans) are led by teams on this list, while in the NFC, the East and West divisions are led (Eagles) or tied (Seahawks) by teams on the list.
  • I know there’s one huge outlier in these numbers that can’t be avoided: the Niners. How can they be so far out in front despite so little on-field success the last three years? My only response is that there’s got to be a two-tiered approach here. The talent level that comes from these numbers must be coupled with consistent QB play. That’s why the Niners have struggled despite the number of winners the scouting department has picked, while the emergence of Kirk Cousins last year got the ‘Skins into the playoffs despite a lousy talent acquisition mark over the last three years. I believe the 49ers would still be at least a playoff contender had the team not been hit so hard by retirements the last few years.
Rank Team 2014 2015 2016 Total
1 San Francisco 49ers 59 59 54 172
2 Green Bay Packers 55 52 51 158
3 Pittsburgh Steelers 56 52 47 155
4 Baltimore Ravens 49 50 55 154
5 Cincinnati Bengals 48 50 53 151
6 Philadelphia Eagles 51 50 44 145
7 Seattle Seahawks 49 49 47 145
8 Dallas Cowboys 48 47 49 144
9 New England Patriots 50 46 46 142
10 Houston Texans 51 47 42 140
11 Minnesota Vikings 44 49 47 140
12 Denver Broncos 46 47 46 139
13 Miami Dolphins 48 45 44 137
14 Tennessee Titans 43 47 47 137
15 Oakland Raiders 44 44 47 135
16 Arizona Cardinals 42 47 44 133
17 Kansas City Chiefs 40 48 45 133
18 Buffalo Bills 41 46 43 130
19 St. Louis Rams 41 44 44 129
20 New York Jets 47 44 37 128
21 Cleveland Browns 36 44 45 125
22 Detroit Lions 41 43 40 124
23 Carolina Panthers 42 44 37 123
24 Jacksonville Jaguars 43 38 38 119
25 San Diego Chargers 42 40 37 119
26 Atlanta Falcons 46 39 31 116
27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 36 37 35 108
28 New Orleans Saints 31 40 37 108
29 Chicago Bears 33 38 34 105
30 Indianapolis Colts 36 35 31 102
31 Washington Redskins 32 33 34 99
32 New York Giants 39 30 28 97

Thoughts on the Football Biz from ex-Lions Exec Cedric Saunders

04 Tuesday Oct 2016

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Last week, Bay Harbor Island, Fla.-based Goal Line Sports announced that it had hired former Detroit Lions executive Cedric Saunders as the firm’s new Vice President of Football Operations.
It’s an interesting hire. Goal Line Football isn’t a powerhouse agency on the level of CAA or Athletes First, but it’s no less respected. In fact, Goal Line CEO Brian Levy is among the more powerful agents in one of the fastest-growing areas of sports representation: coaches. Among his clients are Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin and Dolphins defensive coordinator Vance Joseph.
I wanted to get Cedric’s thoughts on the business and the direction it’s going, especially when it comes to the slowly disappearing line between NFL personnel and contract advisors. He was kind enough to oblige. Here are a few selected answers based on the questions we had.
What kinds of things will you do for the agency? How can you help Brian expand his firm?
“I’m  bringing over 17 years of experience in the NFL from being a player, scout, and front office executive. I will be helping on the operations side of the business in terms of targeting good coaches and front office personnel and growing our clientele the right way with the right people. We really want our company to stand for what the (agency) motto says: ‘Faith – Family – Football.’
“We want our clients to be successful and to feel a part of the family and know that we are all in this together.  I will help with negotiating coaching contracts. I will also help on the player side as well with helping our player agents with which players to target and scout and how we can mainstream the process from an operational standpoint. I will also play a part in prepping our players for all-star games and combine interviews. Also with my background in player development, I can play a role in the (players’) long-term career goals for while they are playing and once their career is over.
“I believe my experiences in the NFL and the friends and contacts I’ve made over the years lends well to helping Brian expand our firm from a coaching standpoint and a player one, as well.”
There’s a lot of volatility in scouting and front offices, and it seems harder than ever to get hired and stay hired in the football world. What do you attribute that to? 
“I believe some of the volatility can be attributed to owners getting less and less patient with keeping GMs and coaches in place if they are not producing within a three-year span and them staying consistent. They are getting more and more pressure from the fans to make changes as well (if) the team is not doing well. It use to be GMs would get a chance to at least hire two coaches, sometimes three, before the owners would start looking at them for replacement. Now it’s down to two and sometimes only one chance to hire a head coach. Bottom line, owners want results more quickly then they did in the past. Then the thing about GMs is you only get one shot at it. You can probably count on one hand how many two-time GMs there are in the league.”
In a business as competitive as pro football, changes are pretty constant. What trends in scouting, or in media, or in college football or whatever, will have the most impact on the pro football business in the next decade, in your opinion?
“I believe technology will have the most impact on the pro football business in the next decade. Look at what’s going on with the tablets on the sidelines, and now how much more analytics is playing a part in how teams are preparing. There’s also the virtual reality googles. Every year something new in technology is coming out that is supposed to give you an advantage, or makes it a little easier to get done.”

Crunching Numbers: An Interview with its Authors (Pt. 2)

29 Thursday Sep 2016

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On Wednesday, we discussed the book Crunching Numbers: An Inside look at the Salary Cap and Negotiating Player Contracts, written by Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap and football biz veteran Vijay Natarajan. I’m pretty excited about this book because I think it makes a difficult topic, one that’s central to the modern NFL, a lot easier to understand.
I had several questions for Jason and Vijay and I covered some of them yesterday. Here are a few more questions and answers regarding their book, as well as the cap and its perception across the nation.
The average fan hears about the salary cap all the time, but do you feel most have a reasonable understanding of the cap and how it works?
“We think the average fan has a basic understanding that there is a limited amount of money that can be used on the roster and that there are ways to manipulate the cap to make it happen. But when it comes to understanding the future consequences of the actions being made, we think there is much less understanding. For example, you may see a team (beat) reporter (discuss) moves made by a team to comply with the cap that adds millions of dollars to the following year. Fans listen to this and their initial thought is their favorite team is doing great finding ways to manipulate the system with no understanding that the team is actually putting themselves in a bad situation the following year. Then the team goes out, has a stinker of a season, and is now millions over the cap. There are also many misconceptions about contract values, guarantees, and true earnings on a contract.”
How about the general media? Do they ‘get’ how the cap works, in your estimation?
“The print media has gotten much better with their understanding of the salary cap in recent years. It helps that they can often lean on agents or even team front office executives to help clarify some things. We think the increase of bloggers who focus on contract-related items, and the social media-fueled, hard-core football audience that they have to write for, has made them learn more and more about this side of the NFL. There is still a similar lack of understanding when it comes to long-term consequences, both good and bad, on contract decisions, reasons behind certain contracts, free agent possibilities, and certain rules concerning the cap. We think when it comes to your radio/TV personalities the cap knowledge is lacking. Granted, that side of the NFL is going to have limited appeal for everyday discussion, but if you are going to criticize a team on air for a salary cap charge or contract value for a player, you should at least have a fundamental understanding for why the team did it.”
Do you think the average fan wants to understand how the cap works?
“Guess it depends on what you consider average. If the average fan is the person who starts paying attention in September, and whose interest level is dependent on their fantasy football roster or team record, and only has an offseason interest in the team at the start of free agency and on the first day of the draft, we doubt they would have (deep) interest in the cap. If the average fan is the person interacting all year on forums and blogs, actively follows reporters on social media, and engages with other fans either online or offline for a majority of the year, then we would expect them to be interested in learning about the cap. Crunching Numbers gives you another avenue to become invested in your team and speak more intelligently about the NFL.”
How long did it take each of you to ‘understand’ the cap?
“In terms of understanding the basics in a way where we could go and sit down with someone who has worked in the NFL for years and have an intelligent conversation, we would say a couple of years. The reality is, we are still in a learning (phase) and you gain more knowledge all the time.”
In general, do you think most teams manage the cap well, or are there teams that put themselves in jeopardy consistently due to simple mistakes?
“Being a fan of the NFL, for a long time, and having seen various approaches to salary cap management, we would say that the majority of teams have gotten much better at managing the salary cap than they were 10 to 15 years ago.  The decision-making process has changed a lot since then for most teams, and it’s led to more efficiency, even though the dollars in contracts are getting bigger and bigger. Still, there are more than a handful of teams that, year after year, are having to find ways just to comply with the cap because of some really bad decisions. Check out Chapter 17, Salary Cap Philosophies, for different strategies executed.”
If you’re part of that hard-core fan base that lives and breathes the NFL, I really encourage you to give Crunching Numbers a look. I know Vijay and Jason are passionate football people but also regular guys, and that’s why they can convey such a complicated topic in a plain-talk kind of way.

Crunching Numbers: An Interview with its Authors

28 Wednesday Sep 2016

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Though I feel like I’ve got a good handle on the football business, I know I’m completely out of my depth on the salary cap. It’s something I’ve always wanted to become more knowledgeable of, and I’ve looked for a book that might illuminate that.
Along comes the book, Crunching Numbers: An Inside look at the Salary Cap and Negotiating Player Contracts, written by Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap and football biz veteran Vijay Natarajan.
Vijay is a longtime friend and ITL client, so I reached out to him when I heard he’d co-authored his first book. I shipped over a few questions, and he and Jason teamed up to answer them. Their responses are below.
Whose idea was the book? Why did you decide to do it?
“A few years ago, we were pretty much chatting about salary cap stuff and realized that there was a common interest and kept in touch from there. The decision to co-author Crunching Numbers was easy. Take a topic that you really enjoy that had no resources available outside of the CBA. It seemed like a natural idea for a book.”
How long did it take to write it?
“We worked on and off on Crunching Numbers since late summer of 2013. A good portion of the book was written by the end of 2014 but with so many changes in the NFL contract landscape and rules, not to mention front office changes, we found ourselves updating constantly to keep things current. This was good because with the added time, and no firm deadline, we expanded the book to include a number of (new) things we probably did not intend to originally have in there – such as small bios on the people behind the scenes (i.e. contract negotiators) around the NFL. Basically, every time we would go to update we would realize, “hey, wouldn’t it be good to have this in the book?” and then add a new portion to a chapter or sometimes an entire new chapter. Each time you add something there is a great deal of research involved. We have over 300 citations in the book, so it was a time-consuming process to do it correctly.
“Since this book is the first of its kind in this field, it was really important to take the time and do it right and not do a rush job. The last few months have really been spent in the editing process and working with some (cap) people in the NFL just to make certain we didn’t miss anything.”
Besides selling plenty of books, what would you like to accomplish with this book?
“Really, the main goal of the book is to educate more people about a very important side of the NFL. Every year, between December and March, the talk about the salary cap and contracts dominates the NFL, but so much of what you hear on the radio, see on Twitter, or read is incorrect or uninformed.
“There is nothing worse than listening to a popular sports radio host answer a question on the salary cap and respond, “it’s too hard to understand and explain to you.” That’s nonsense! Even if you go to work in the NFL, it’s trial by fire when it comes to learning. This book, we hope, gives people the fundamentals to succeed much faster.”
Thursday, we’ll talk more with Jason and Vijay about their perception of how well the cap is understood, even by NFL teams; who seems to ‘get’ the cap and who doesn’t;  and how easy it is to go from cap novice to expert in Thursday’s edition of SIF. In the meantime, I hope you’ll check out the book’s Website.
I enthusiastically endorse the book for anyone who reads my blog regularly, loves the business of football, and wants to have a fuller understanding of one of the main drivers of personnel decisions in the NFL.

A Few Thoughts on the New AFCA-NFL Scouting Agreement

27 Tuesday Sep 2016

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As you know, there was a major announcement Monday that FBS schools will designate up to five underclassmen that NFL teams can scout essentially a full year before they can become eligible.

Presumably, this means a number of redshirt freshmen and true sophomores will become eligible for NFL evaluation this spring in anticipation of these players potentially entering the ’18 draft. Perhaps this means players already three years out of high school will be designated as ‘underclassmen.’ It’s also unclear if it will be made public which teams receive these designations.

Setting aside the questions that remain regarding the new policy, here are a few thoughts on how it might change the business of football.

  • My guess is that it will become harder for fringe players to get recognized as legitimate NFL prospects. Why? Increasingly, NFL teams see draft picks after the fourth round as disposable, and this is because they only see the top 100 or so draftees as real difference-makers. These are the guys that win ballgames for you, and in an era where coaches only get two, maybe three years to prove themselves, it’s a win-now world.
  • The players designated as underclassmen to watch will automatically be seen as sexier and more desirable to NFL teams. Obviously, that makes a lot of sense for the players from Florida State, Alabama and the like, but there will be other ‘middle class’ teams that designate their own players, and I expect those athletes to get more acclaim, even by scouts. It’s human nature.
  • As the agent middle class starts to dissolve (given the tighter margins dictated by the NFLPA), you’re going to see a polarization of the draft. The top 30 or so agencies will strictly recruit the underclassmen designates and the very best seniors, while the other 60 percent of the agent world will try to pick up the scraps. That’s not a lot different from how things work today, but I see it hardening and becoming even more cut and dried. The big firms that have overhead and who are willing to make the investment that recruiting players entails will just have no choice.
  • Maybe I’m looking at this as a glass that’s half-full, but this could be an opportunity for those smaller agents and agencies. Younger, less-established contract advisors will have to work harder to find these off-the-grid players, and will have to promote them more aggressively, but there’s a higher ceiling for these players now, I think. So maybe, just maybe, this can be a good thing for players trying to break into the biz.

Waves In The Pool

22 Thursday Sep 2016

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At this point, we’ve covered the ramifications of the recently confirmed SRA that the NFLPA has published for the 2017 draft class. As you know, the default agent fee will be 1.5 percent v. the previous rate of 3 percent, which was already lower than all major sports.

We still don’t know how this will impact the agent business, though we know it won’t be good. With a week until the NFLPA’s deadline for paying 2016-17 dues, there’s a great chance several good contract advisors will opt to get out of the business.

However, problems for some could be opportunities for others. In the last week, I’ve had a handful of financial advisors ask me how I saw the new agent fee affecting their part of the business. Would it be a negative or a positive? Maybe, just maybe, this could be an opportunity for financial advisors. Here’s why.

  • Good agents will leave the business due to this move. There’s no two ways about it. What’s more, eventually, the news of this move will trickle down to the young, motivated people who annually register to take the agent exam. This means it’s possible draft prospects could find a lack of good advisors that know the ropes.
  • Financial advisors, many of whom (though new to the game) have an intense desire to help young players make smart decisions about their money, could fill the gap.
  • The lion’s share of the financial advisors who can capitalize on this are younger and more patient though probably less accomplished. Elite financial advisors rarely want do the day-to-day hand-holding that the business requires; after all, they’re superstars in their own right.

As I mentioned, financial advisors are already starting to think along these lines. This year, we’ve matched up four former NFL scouts with agencies to work with them in the run-up to the draft. I had a financial advisor ask me last week if I thought this might work in his business. I told him I’d get back to him, and I haven’t yet, but I think maybe this is an idea with traction.

The rule of thumb in this business is that about every three years there is a major new development that hits the football business like a tidal wave, requiring agents, financial advisors, trainers and the like to adapt. Obviously, the less agile can’t, don’t or won’t adapt, but those who can identify these trends early can often turn them into opportunities. One previous such wave was the rise of combine training. Another big one was the shift from low-interest loans and letters of credit to marketing advances or outright signing bonuses to entice draft prospects.

We’re about to see how many people across the football world can benefit from this, and how many will get pulled under. Just maybe there are those in the money world who can make this an advantage.

Agent Samantha Stephenson on LaQuan McGowan and ‘Undrafted’

15 Thursday Sep 2016

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If you read this blog regularly, you’re a fan of what happens in football behind the scenes as well as on the field. That’s one reason shows like ‘Undrafted,’ which debuted Tuesday in its third season on The NFL Network, have become so popular.

I made sure to tune in Tuesday after my former ITL intern, Murphy McGuire (and probably the rookie agent of the year as the only independent first-year contract advisor with a draftee this year) tweeted that the show was kicking off this week. It was then that I remembered that another ITL client, Samantha Stephenson, had a client on the show. I was especially excited to find out that she was the only agent that got airtime Tuesday night.

With that in mind, I reached out to her about the show and her experiences. Samantha, who’s one of the most approachable people in the business anyway, said she’s already getting attention from other players (mostly true long shots from previous draft classes). I advised her to politely decline them, of course.

Here are a few thoughts from Sam that I found interesting. They run a little long, but I found Sam pretty insightful and I thought you might, too.

“They had done their own kind of keeping an eye on players throughout the season, and they were looking for players this year that were really close to the cusp of being drafted or undrafted. Not only good football players but a good story to tell, things that make them more unique, than just the average football player you see on the field. But you’ll find so many of these guys have stories to tell, and have overcome adversity in one form or another. LaQuan had gotten quite a bit of press going into the season after the 2015 Cotton Bowl when he scored the 18-yard touchdown catch. After that, people started to notice him as a 400-pound tight end. And he had done Sports Illustrated (and other media), and there was press out there about him playing the position he did at the size he was. (The producers) reached out to Baylor, and they gave (the producers) my contact info, and I thought it would be a great opportunity.

“LaQuan is also very different form the typical football player, very quiet and to himself, and very protective of his story. To some degree, at Baylor, he probably felt like he couldn’t say no (to the media), so at one point he said, ‘I’ve already told my story to all these journalists, and there’s nothing else for me to tell.’ I definitely had to show him the upside, and I think during the filming process, we experienced that as well. He’s more of a ‘to himself’ guy, so having cameras and microphones follow him around was pretty exhausting for him.”

On the risk of Samantha looking bad on the show:

“I mean, of course, players are always looking for the agent that will land them as a first-round draft pick, and they were with us all day long on draft day, and we know the story (LaQuan goes undrafted). It was a hard day, a very emotionally hard day, and viewers will see me texting teams and making calls that go unanswered, and I’m sure some will attribute that to my agent abilities. So there was definitely that risk that I knew I was taking, and it’s still very very possible (he wouldn’t be) drafted, and it will all be on TV for everyone to see that he didn’t get drafted and people will attribute that to his agent. So I knew that going in, but it wasn’t until they were already filming when they asked me to be a part of it (and be on camera). I had planned to go to Baylor for pro day, but he wanted me there (for the first day of filming) to kind of filter and help him feel more comfortable with it, so I went down. On the first day, I’m sure the producer was saying, ‘this agent, she’s a lawyer, what a nuisance!’ It wasn’t until Day 2 (of filming) that they miked me up and heard more of my story and how I’m connected to LaQuan, and became an agent after my first year of law school, and that night the executive producer called me and said, ‘hey, we really want you to be a part of it. This is more of a story than just LaQuan’s story.’ It wasn’t until then that they wanted me to be a part of the process, too, so in that moment, I had to decide, is this about me or LaQuan? I thought, if this is a good look for LaQuan, and it reflects poorly on me, it’s OK because this was good for him.”

On the risk of LaQuan looking bad:

“Honestly, I can’t think of a time (when we had to discourage them from filming something or the direction they wanted to go). I’m not sure for the other guys, but for the filming for LaQuan, it was the same director, same camera guy and same (microphone) guy, so eventually LaQuan warmed up to them, and they started to warm up to him and understand what they could get and what they couldn’t.”

On LaQuan’s uphill battle:

“I can’t get on a whiteboard and draw up the best play in X’s and O’s, but the thing that I say is that, I know the business of football. Those of us that know the business of football knew LaQuan was a long shot. Even at the combine, when we were having the happy hour after the (ITL seminar), and (other agents) know of LaQuan, but he’s 400 (pounds) so that’s gonna be tough (to get him in an NFL camp). Everyone else thinks, ‘I‘ve got strength and I’m bigger and can run the 40, why isn’t that great? And they don’t understand that there’s this distinct mold you have to fit in to make the NFL, and 400 pounds is not that mold. It was Year 3 as an agent for me, and I knew what I was taking on, and I knew he had to lose weight to have a chance, but it was the other outside voices that made it hard. Like ‘you killed pro day,‘ and he had coaches that made him feel he was good, and dealing with those outside voices is what made it the hardest.”

On walking through the entire process with him:

“I was with him (on his pro day). It was my idea originally (to be there), and they ended up liking it, but I had already planned to do it. I was the only agent around my player for his pro day, and I guess that’s not the norm, but I couldn’t imagine sending my guy out for the biggest interview of his life by himself. That’s not the agent I want to be. Just preparing him for the interviews, going over questions, helping keep his nerves calm, getting the right nutrition in him the day before. Draft day was the same. I just couldn’t imagine not being with him. And it was even harder because we had to deal with the cameras and mikes in our face. It was very hard, and they interviewed me for the wrap-up interview a week and a half ago. It was a really hard night. LaQuan had to handle it, and I flew my best friend in and I wanted her there for emotional and technical support. I had 60-70 numbers I was monitoring, and I had her sending texts so I could be with LaQuan. I told the film crew, and I’m sure it will be on the last episode or two of the show, but I had to go to dinner with my friend and let the emotions out, and then film again the next day. I couldn’t have imagined not being with him. As much as he didn’t understand to a degree, I can’t imagine going through that alone. If you want to be an agent, you have to be able to face those  hard situations. His family was hurting, but I couldn’t, being able to see him again on Sunday and talk to him one on one, it was hard, but let’s pick ourselves up by the bootstraps and keep moving forward.”

 

Re-Thinking Jared Goff

14 Wednesday Sep 2016

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The national media has been abuzz with the fact that No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff has not cracked backup duties for the Rams and was, in fact, a healthy scratch for Monday night’s 28-0 loss to the 49ers Monday night.

Obviously, there’s a long way to go before anyone can make any judgments on Goff’s NFL future, but the optics are bad. Still, I wondered if scouts felt the same way. Was Goff a guy that teams felt was a near-certain future star? Do his early struggles make sense to people in the business?

Based on their responses, the jury is still way, way out. We got a lot of comments that were on the fence, like these:

  • “Too soon to judge, IMO.”
  • “(We thought he was pretty much NFL-ready but) if you’re not a very good team you don’t want to throw him out there either. Many more showings like (Monday) night and they won’t have a choice.”
  • “I saw him preseason and thought he would play this year after a few games. (Backup QB Sean) Mannion is better than (Monday) night’s (performance).”
  • “He wasn’t my guy so I don’t remember much of the read on him, but I remember him being talented with good traits.”

However, I also had a conversation with one scout that I thought encapsulated things best. He said scouts were all over the place on Goff, with some liking his upside, and others seeing him as comparable to Memphis’ Paxton Lynch and even Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott. These scouts preferred North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz. Despite Wentz’s small-school pedigree, they liked his intangibles and the multiple national titles he was part of at NDSU.

These scouts also had concerns that Goff had gone from nowhere as a sophomore to a possible No. 1 overall as a junior. They just didn’t feel his total body of work justified the investment.

“That’s a concern when you’re taking a guy first overall, with a lot of (varied) grades,” my friend said.

I’d agree. Teams have to make the best decision based on the information they have, and obviously, opinions vary. However, if Goff turns out to be a guy who doesn’t live up to expectations, it could be because the Rams felt they had to have a quarterback, and he looked like their best option. The one resounding message I get back from scouts is that the surest way to miss on a pick is to draft based on need, and not purely on the best player available.

Once again, there’s still plenty of time for Goff to turn into Aaron Rodgers, another player who spent a lot of time on the bench initially. No one knows what the future holds. That’s what makes the draft so intriguing.

What’s a Sleeper?

07 Wednesday Sep 2016

Posted by in Agents, Scouts

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I was having a conversation recently with some friends — some agents, some in the scouting community — and the subject of ‘sleepers’ came up. During the conversation, it became necessary to actually define the term. That’s because agents and scouts usually define the term very differently.

This is a generalization, but my experience has been that scouts see most NFL draft prospects as fitting into two categories. Either the prospect is a top-100 guy, an immediate difference-maker and an instant starter, or he’s not. Almost anyone that doesn’t fit into that top 100 could be a sleeper to some or most teams.

Here’s another way scouts define sleepers. If a kid goes to a small school, or a school that’s not Power 5 (the MAC, let’s say, or the Sun Belt, or the Mountain West), he could be a sleeper. It’s a very loose term, obviously, but the players in the latter rounds could almost all be considered sleepers. Just look at how many got cut last weekend. These are players that teams don’t expect to be stars, and if they do, they ‘awoke’ and became game-changers.

This is very different from how agents look at things.

Players that are legitimate fourth- and fifth-round prospects are a long ways from being sleepers. Shoot, guys that everyone agrees will be drafted aren’t sleepers. Not for agents, at least. Why?

Because these days, once a kid gets identified as a legit draft prospect, word gets out quickly. Sooner or later, word gets back to the player himself. Maybe he already saw himself that way, but either way, once he gets that stamp of legitimacy, he expects training. That means an agent can expect to spend $10,000, minimum, getting him ready for his pro day.

Once several agents offer to pay for training, a player’s price and expectation level take off. He might still be a guy that many teams have their doubts about, but agents have to make a significant investment to sign them at that point.

Finding sleepers in the draft is hard for NFL teams, but easier than ever due to the Internet and a number of other factors. But for agents, it’s quite a challenge.