Tag Archives: NFL Mock Drafts

Catching Up With Seven Top Mocks as the 2020 NFL Combine Nears

21 Friday Feb 2020

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As you know, we like to take periodic looks at some of the bigger-name draft personalities at key points in the draft process. With the NFL Combine next week, we thought this would be a good time to take measure of their latest work.

We have stayed with the same seven mocks we’ve surveyed since we started — Pro Football Network/Tony Pauline; Pro Football Focus; Sports Illustrated; Bleacher Report/Matt Miller; ESPN/Todd McShay; The Athletic/Dane Brugler; and Walter Football). It’s worth noting that the most recent mock from Pauline that we could find was pre-Senior Bowl, so it’s a little dated. All the other mocks have taken place in February.

And away we go.

  • Twenty-one players who were rated by at least one service as a first-rounder during our last survey no longer carry such a grade by any of the seven mocks. They are Stanford DC Paulson Adebo; Missouri TE Albert Okwuegbunam, Oregon OB Troy Dye, Stanford OT Walker Little, Georgia OG Solomon Kindley, Florida DE Jon Greenard, Alabama OT Alex Leatherwood, Florida St. DT Marvin Wilson, Alabama OB Dylan Moses, Texas OT Sam Cosmi, Boise St. DE Curtis Weaver, Alabama WO Devonta Smith, Ohio State DC Shaun Wade, Michigan WO Donovan Peoples–Jones, Purdue TE Brycen Hopkins, Virginia DC Bryce Hall, Clemson OH Travis Etienne, California FS Ashtyn Davis, Georgia OT Isaiah Wilson, UCF WO Gabe Davis and Auburn OT Prince Tega Wanogho. Obviously, several of them didn’t enter the draft (Adebo, Little, Leatherwood, Moses, Cosmi, Smith, Wade, Etienne and Marvin Wilson) but others apparently aren’t as buzz-worthy as they once were, at least with mock draft analysts.
  • The real movement appears to be at wide receiver. Our last snapshot of mock drafts  had Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy, Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb and Colorado’s Laviska Shenault on every one, in that order. Today, that order still holds, but primarily because Pauline had him a 6 in January. He’s at 12, on average, based on the other, more recent, mocks. However, Lamb is closing the gap quickly and two mocks (Brugler and Sports Illustrated’s Kevin Hanson) even have Lamb going first (Brugler has Lamb 12 and Jeudy 13, while Hanson sees it as 9 vs. 13).
  • Also of note: only Brugler (at 23) had Louisville OT Mekhi Becton in the first round in December. Now, only Pauline doesn’t have him as a top-11 pick (which probably changes in Pauline’s next mock). Brugler has him at 7.

For more analysis of these seven top mock drafts, make sure to register for our Friday Wrap, where we’ll go much deeper. You can do that here. It comes out every Friday evening at 6:30 p.m. CT.

Also of note: on Wednesday, we’ll be honoring The Athletic’s Ben Standig for having the top mock draft last year as graded by The Huddle Report, which tracked more than 100 mocks — including all of the seven we’ve tracked here — that were filed shortly before the actual draft last April. Sports Illustrated’s Kevin Hanson is a previous Huddle Report champion.

At any rate, Ben will be on hand at the 2020 TEST Football Academy ITL Combine Seminar, our 11th such event and the place to be if you’re interested in networking with people in the football community. You can find more details here, and if you’re an ITL client, you’re invited. See you there!

Who’s the Master of the Mock Draft? Talking to Drew Boylhart of The Huddle Report

25 Friday May 2018

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Today in our Friday Wrap (you can register for it here), we talk to Drew Boylhart of The Huddle Report. Drew and the site’s founder, Rob Esch, do an incredible job of tracking the accuracy of mock drafts and Top 100 lists across the web every year.

In our newsletter, which will be out in less than three hours, we talk to Drew about how the site got started, how the rankings are set up, and who really rocks at predicting who’s going where. As for the Top 100 lists, Boylhart said Bob McGinn, a veteran of Wisconsin newspapers who launched his own site in 2017, excels.

“This year, Bob McGinn got 86,” Boylhart said. “He’s won it three times, and has an 82.8 average. He was in the 13th spot this year with his five-year average, and was in the top five with his board this year. He’s won it the most, three times. He’s able to call contacts and get names. McGinn has a tremendous amount of contacts and he can call them up and get into, just like Gosselin.

“Rob has had lunch a couple times with (Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News, who also excels at predicting picks and players), and McGinn is the same way. They really are interested in what they’re doing and they interact with scouts and GMs, and they keep secrets so they can interact with them.”

Though some are better than others, Boylhart said there’s a fair amount of randomness to the mock draft process.

“Rob himself won it one year,” he said. “It’s like the lottery. Anyone can win. You don’t have to be in the system to win. My 94-year-old mother could win.

“Evan Silva (of Rotoworld) did the best this year. 10 matches, which is highly unusual. He got 28 of 32 players in the first round. He did a really good job this year. But many, many times, you’ll do great one year and bottom of the barrel next year. It’s a real crapshoot.”

Tracking consistency has become difficult because so many sites don’t last long.

“The funny thing about them is, these sites go in and out so fast,” said Boylhart, 66. “These guys are dropping off like crazy. Seems like every 3-5 years, they’ll start a site, and most of these guys are kids, and they think an NFL team is gonna notice them, and their friend who went to college with them is an intern someplace, but they get discouraged after five years.

“It’s a lot of work. Most of them have jobs and want to be successful at their jobs, and after three years, its’ not fun.”

He said it’s also hard dealing with the abuse, particularly on Twitter.

“I can’t tell you the stuff they say to me,” said Boylhart of the controversy his profiles have generated. “I had one person tell me I should have been pulled from the womb of my mother because he didn’t like the profile I did. I had a parent call me at midnight, drunk as a skunk. Twitter is a beast. The stuff they say on Twitter, it’s incredible.”

Boylhart said the key to The Huddle Report’s longevity is that he and his partner take things in stride.

“We’re entertainment,” he said. “I have no agenda, I don’t think I’m gonna be hired by a team. I don’t break down film, and I’m not gonna suggest I’m a scout. I’m probably the furthest thing from a scout. I’m a profiler. I try to profile players on whether they’re gonna be successful or not.”

For more from Drew, make sure you register for our newsletter here.

Reviewing Some Top 2018 Mock Drafts with One Week to Go

20 Friday Apr 2018

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As you know, last month, we took a look at seven reputable draft services — Tony Pauline of Draft Expert; Pro Football Focus’ Steve Palazzolo; NFL Draft Scout’s Dane Brugler; Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller; ESPN’s Todd McShay (this month’s mock is behind the pay wall); Chris Burke, then of Sports Illustrated, now of The Athletic (sorry, it’s behind the pay wall, though their rate is pretty affordable); and Charlie Campbell of Walter Football — and compared their mock drafts published in May 2017 with their updated mocks in March.

It wasn’t a straight apples-to-apples comparison, as some writers moved around and some services combined prognosticators’ picks into one mock, but we did the best we could. As you can imagine, there were plenty of changes over 10 months.

With one week to go until the ’18 draft (actually, less than a week), we thought we’d take one last look before things get real. Here’s what we found.

  • Last May, 11 players were listed in the first round by all seven services. This month, predictably, things have tightened: 20 players are now across-the-board first-rounders.
  • In the last month, the number of players rated as first-rounders by at least one service has dropped from 56 to 49.
  • Remarkably, five of the seven services see Georgia OB Roquan Smith as the No. 10 pick in the draft. The other two, The Athletic and Walter Football, have him as the 11th pick.
  •  After Smith, the three players with the greatest consensus in one place, all by virtue of four services, are USC QB Sam Darnold, the top pick in four mock drafts; Alabama WO Calvin Ridley, who goes No. 19; and UTEP OG Will Hernandez, who’s No. 30.
  • Florida State DC Tarvarus McFadden is Exhibit A of the fickle nature of the draft process. In May, he was rated as a first-rounder by all seven services, one of just 11 player so rated. This month, no one has him in the first round.
  • LSU DE Arden Key is Exhibit B. In May 2017, he was a first-rounder on all seven boards with an average selection at No. 6. As of this month, only one service, The Athletic, has him going in the top 32, and just barely (31).
  • Speaking of LSU, Derrius Guice was a first-rounder in the eyes of six services last May. Today, the running back is first round in the eyes of just two services, Draft Analyst (Tony Pauline) and NFL Draft Scout (Dane Brugler), and No. 32 for both.
  • Pauline was the only prognosticator to have Iowa IB Josey Jewell in his first round last May, and he stuck to his guns last month, but he’s removed him from the top 32 as of this month.

We’ll have more analysis in today’s Friday Wrap, which comes out this evening. If you’re into the draft — and I figure you are — you won’t want to miss our further breakdown of the services and who they like. As always, the Friday Wrap is free and is read by people across the industry, and you can register for it here.

Grading the Graders: Comparing May ’17 and March ’18 mocks

16 Friday Mar 2018

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Every spring, the NFL draft captures the attention of football fans virtually from bowl season through April. One reason for the draft’s popularity is the mock draft, which gives everyone a snapshot of the biggest impact-makers of the new crop. Mock drafts were practically made for the Web, and indeed, many draft gurus have made quite a name due to the popularity of their mocks.

But how accurate are they, really? Sure, they’re fun to look at and argue over, but without accountability, what’s the point? Which of the draft experts seem to be the most accurate? It’s a question we’ve asked for ages, but not until last spring did we start to take steps toward measuring it.

In May, we logged the picks for each of seven of the biggest names in Draft Twitter. Then we perused their most recent drafts (most were published the first week of March). They are Tony Pauline of Draft Expert (the most recent we could find was from early February, pre-combine); Pro Football Focus’ Steve Palazzolo; NFL Draft Scout’s Dane Brugler; Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller; ESPN’s Todd McShay; Chris Burke, then of Sports Illustrated, now of The Athletic (sorry, it’s behind the pay wall, though their rate is pretty affordable; and Charlie Campbell of Walter Football.

We break down our finds in today’s Friday Wrap (shameless plug; you can register for it here, and it’s free). But first, here are a few tidbits.

  • Only 56 players showed up across the seven mocks this month, which is a pretty small number when you think about it. Of the 56, 15 show up in all seven mocks.
  • A total of 38 players received at least one first-round mention in March, but none this month. It’s more evidence of the pack mentality of Draft Twitter.
  • Here’s even more damning evidence of Draft Twitter groupthink: there were five players that were no-shows in May’s mocks, but showed up in every one of March’s mocks. They are Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield, Iowa DC Josh Jackson, Georgia OB Roquan Smith, UTSA DE Marcus Davenport and Virginia Tech OB Tremaine Edmunds. Two other players, Boise St. IB Leighton Vander Esch and Alabama OB Rashaan Evans, make six of the seven mocks this month, but made none of them last May.
  • Mayfield is, on average, the No. 9 pick, and none of the experts has him later than 15, yet he wasn’t good enough for any of them last spring.
  • Of the 38, seven were juniors (Clemson DE Clelin Ferrell, Clemson OT Mitch Hyatt, Ohio St. DT Dre’Mont Jones, USC DC Iman Marshall, USC IB Cameron Smith, Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham and Clemson DT Christian Wilkins) who wound up skipping the draft.
  • Three others — Missouri DE Marcell Frazier, North Carolina SS Donnie Miles and Oklahoma DC Jordan Thomas — are draft-eligible, but were combine snubs. Chris Burke (then at SI, now at The Athletic) had Thomas at 25; Walter Football liked Frazier at 29; and Tony Pauline had Miles as the last pick in the first round.

We’ve got a lot more — who did the mocks like in March most vs. who they like best now; which experts really went out on a limb, then and now; which conferences, teams and the like dominate; and plenty more. I hope you’ll join us there. Everyone else from across the industry reads it, and I hope you will, too.