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~ The daily blog written by ITL's Neil Stratton

Succeed in Football

Monthly Archives: July 2015

NFL Draft Position Scarcity

10 Friday Jul 2015

Posted by itlneil in Agents

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NFL agent

I know it’s Friday, but let’s set that aside today to look at some research I did on Wednesday into the players from the ’15 draft class who made it into NFL camps (as draftees, undrafted free agent signees or tryout players).

Each year, lots of players sign standard representation agreements (SRA) with agents, but that’s no guarantee a player will be drafted, or even signed as undrafted free agents. In fact, well over half of the players at most positions will not make a roster despite signing an SRA.

Here’s a grid I developed that breaks down the number of players, by position, that made it into NFL camps this year.

Pos % in camp SRA
OT 83 112
TE 77 100
DT 67.8 143
OC 67.3 55
OG 64.9 111
FS 63.6 66
OH 63.1 149
DE 63 146
QB 61.8 89
IB 61.6 112
LS 60.6 33
OB 57.3 143
SS 56.9 123
DC 55.8 215
WO 54.2 308
PK 47.5 40
FB 43.8 32
PT 41 39

The first five positions in the poll are all related to the offensive or defensive line, plus the current ‘glam’ position, tight end. In short, everyone’s looking for big-bodied players that can move a little.

Here’s something else the grid shows. There were 308 wide receivers signed by agents last year. That’s almost as many as the total number of tackles (112), guards (111), centers (55) and long-snappers (33) that were signed (311).

The takeaway I got from this breakdown is that big guys are always more valuable to NFL teams than the guys that score touchdowns. You can probably extend that logic to say that touchdown-scorers depend greatly on the guys that are making space for them, and that stopping the ball-carrier depends on having guys that can counter your o-line.

No matter what NFL teams say, it seems clear that the old cliche is true: it all starts up front.

WST: A Broncos Scout’s take on the ’11 Draft

09 Thursday Jul 2015

Posted by itlneil in Scouts

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NFL Scouting

Last week, we checked in with former Broncos scout Cal McCombs, who now runs personnel for the annual Medal of Honor Bowl in Charleston, S.C. After talking to Cal about the ’10 draft last week, I thought I’d pick his brain a bit about the 2011 draft, which also turned up a few gems in Denver.

Though Cal left after the combine and wasn’t actually in the war room on Draft Day 2011, the team had already charted its course when he departed in late February. Here are his thoughts on two stars the team selected that spring.

On drafting Texas A&M’s Von Miller No. 2 overall in 2011: “One of the reasons we had to take a guy like that high was that we had drafted a guy in the first round from Tennessee a year back (Robert Ayers, drafted eighteenth overall), and he wasn’t the quick-twitch guy we thought he was (Ayers has 17 career sacks through six seasons). We had (Louisville DE) Elvis Dumervil that we had gotten in the draft earlier (4/126 in 2006), and he was a steal, and Dumervil had come on like gangbusters, so we had one on one side that could do something and we needed someone on the other side.”

On drafting Portland St. TE Julius Thomas in the fourth round in 2011: With the Thomas kid, I think the thought process when I was there is, we had (TE Tony Scheffler, chosen 2/61 in 2006) who could stretch the middle of the field, and then another tight end named Daniel Graham from Colorado (signed as a free agent by the Broncos in ’07). We had those two (but) Scheffler got traded to Detroit (in April 2010), and Graham was on his last legs, and (new head coach) Josh (McDaniels) wanted a tight end because they were big on tight ends at New England, and (Thomas) was a heck of an athlete and Josh wanted somebody that could catch the ball. Now, Julius wasn’t the most courageous blocker, but he could catch the ball. (Josh) needed somebody that could get open at the tight end position, and the blocking was secondary, because at Denver we had Graham that was the blocker. Josh’s primary thinking — and this is me speculating — but his primary thought was that (Thomas) was an athletic guy that could catch the football. Josh had hired a (scout) named Adam Peters that took over the West Coast, and when we were there, I remember Adam was really high on (TE Rob) Gronkowski (who had attended Arizona). I think they saw some of that kind of thing in Thomas, and (Thomas) came in there and didn’t have much football experience, and was a former basketball player, but he was able to learn what they wanted him to do and they got him to do what they wanted.”

Re: Haynesworth’s Letter

07 Tuesday Jul 2015

Posted by itlneil in Uncategorized

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Albert Haynesworth, Letter

By now, you’ve probably read the letter former Titans and Redskins DT Albert Haynesworth wrote to himself at 14 years old. To me, it’s quite provocative.

There has been plenty of reaction to it online, of course, much of which I’ve studiously tried to avoid. Everyone has their opinion of Haynesworth, and that includes me. Though I often think the media exaggerates players’ behaviors, I think it’s safe to say Haynesworth was not a good guy over the course of his NFL career. That doesn’t make him different from a lot of players out there, of course.

At any rate, here are a couple of points I think are relevant after reading his letter.

  • I think a lot of players would make very similar points after concluding their careers. I don’t think Haynesworth is a victim, exactly, but I do think that at some points, he was taken advantage of. Of course, the same can be said of virtually every man, woman and child in America, but that doesn’t make it right.
  • Lots and lots of players are ‘played’ by people with influence. Haynesworth charges that someone that Tennessee head coach Phil Fulmer put him in contact with wound up taking his money. That’s tragic but also not uncommon. These young men have so many people coming at them that it’s really hard to know which ones are genuine. How do players reconcile friendship with management? How do they walk the line between finding someone they can trust and someone who is competent? How do they know when someone that is referred to them is really worthy of their confidence? I have no idea. I thought a lot of the ‘Broke’ documentary that was such a popular ’30 for 30′ feature for ESPN was self-aggrandizing, but a lot of it was right on the money (no pun intended).
  • “Sure, you only benched as much as some of the safeties at the combine, but you can run. You have that short-burst playing power. You’re going to be a better athlete than 85 percent of the offensive linemen you’re up against.” If you’re an agent, print this sentence out and tape it to your mirror. I can’t tell you how many times a young agent brags to me about how many 225 reps his client can do. Know what? Nobody cares. Bench reps are something that are easy to improve in the weight room. Fast-twitch muscle fiber and the ability to be explosive — that’s what NFL teams will pay for.
  • Maybe, just maybe, this story ends happily for Albert. If you read the last couple paragraphs, which describe him flipping properties and actually getting his hands dirty working to improve homes, you see someone who ‘got it.’ This is something that many players never understand. They think their post-career life will be every bit as successful as their pre-retirement life. The work doesn’t end. The players that succeed apply the same work ethic after their playing days are over that they applied during their league days. That may be humbling but it’s true.

I know a lot of these points are pretty on-the-nose, but I thought I’d offer my input. Any surprises that you saw in his letter? I’d love to hear about it in the comments section.

All-Star Difficulties

02 Thursday Jul 2015

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NFL Scouting

If you read Wednesday’s post, you know who Cal McCombs is. During the course of our conversation, we discussed the all-star game he works with, the Charleston, S.C.-based Medal of Honor Bowl.

I’m always interested in the inner workings of jobs in football, so I asked Cal what he found to be the hardest part of his job. He said his challenges are much the same of most NFL teams, i.e., finding impact players in the later rounds, because most of the players that come to the lower-ranked games fit that profile.

“It’s easy to find the find the first-, second- and third-rounders,” he said. “Those guys fall off the board. But finding out who can make the team in the fourth or fifth or sixth round is much more difficult.

“What we’re doing now is what we were doing at Denver. We were trying to find the fourth-, fifth- and sixth-round guys, and we had 10 drafted.”

What makes it tougher is that other games can easily cannibalize the Medal of Honor Bowl’s roster. In that respect, it’s not a lot different from major-college recruiting.

“We had some other kids that would have been drafted,” Cal said. “(Senior Bowl Executive Director) Phil Savage calls me the week before our game and says, ‘I gotta take (Florida OC Max) Garcia and (Northwestern FS Ibraheim) Campbell,’ and both of those guys are drafted, and there was also one that got hurt from Florida that got drafted (and couldn’t play in the MOH Bowl), so it’s been fun finding the late-round draft picks.”

After speaking to Cal, I wanted to explore the topic further, so I reached out to a couple other friends who ran games during the ’15 draft cycle. One was Jose Jefferson, Executive Director of the College Gridiron Showcase held in Arlington last year. While he agrees with Cal on the personnel aspect of things, he sees the finances as the toughest part.

“On a business standpoint, there isn’t a great return on the money that’s needed to maintain it,” he said. “In the end, the profit center is the biggest hurdle. I would be interested to know if the investors in the (other all-star) bowls see their money back, let alone profit.

“As for players, I think that is the fun part. For us, it was getting to the lower-level scouts. They are the ones trying to prove themselves, so when you talk to them about guys, they are usually going to give you their top guy they are scouting.   That’s the purpose of these games, to expose the hidden gem. (Ravens draftee) Tray Walker from Texas Southern was our highest pick from our game, fourth round. Truth be told, there is a kid as good or better than him waiting for his shot.”

I rounded it out by calling another friend, Johnny Meads, a former NFL linebacker and ex-Titans scout who is now the Midwest ‘recruiter’ (i.e., scout) for the NFLPA Collegiate Bowl. Johnny said identifying the talent is hard, but convincing a player to attend the NFLPA game and not wait for another call is the hardest part.

“A lot of the guys think they’re going to be at the Senior Bowl,” he said. “Everybody thinks he’s a first-round draft pick, so they’re going to hold out and wait for an invitation from them. The other thing is getting those guys to the game when they’re also playing in the (college football) playoffs, or whatever, in their conferences, and hard to get in contact with them that way. There’s a great number of things that (make it hard) to get them there. Identifying the challenges is kinda difficult, but the players themselves are tough as they’re trying to figure out who they are. Often, they’re D2 or D3 players and they think they’re all-stars.”

 

WSW: Recollections of the ’10 Broncos Draft

01 Wednesday Jul 2015

Posted by itlneil in Scouts

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NFL Scouting

I wanted to get back to some deep draft talk for today’s war story, so I called Cal McCombs, who runs the personnel side for the Charleston, SC-based Medal of Honor Bowl. The MOH Bowl is entering its third year, and Cal and his team have done an excellent job of finding late-round talent.

Cal was with the Broncos from 2007-11 as an area scout, and in 2010, the team drafted nine players. All but two of them are still active in the league, and two of them, Broncos WO Demaryius Thomas and Jets WO Eric Decker, are bona fide stars in the league. That’s a bonanza, one of the better drafts in the last decade, and has set the team up for perennial playoff runs.

Cal shared a few of his recollections from that draft with me this morning, and I thought I’d pass them along.

Thomas (taken in the first round, 22nd overall): Cal said the team took Thomas as a pure need pick in the wake of having traded WO Brandon Marshall two weeks before the draft. “We already had the QB, Kyle Orton, that we had received (in the trade of Jay Cutler to the Bears), so we had a proven QB, but the receiver corps at that time was not real strong. You take Brandon Marshall out of there, and now you don’t have the big guy that can take the ball away from somebody. I think the logic behind (the pick) was that you take a big strong receiver (Thomas is 6-3, 229) that can run (4.38 speed), and that’s a powerful combination.”

Cal said the team’s scouts knew about Thomas’ tools, but what cemented the pick was his attitude. “The thing I loved about him was that here’s a guy who had been one of the top(-rated receivers in the draft), and watching him on film, he may have been the best blocking receiver I had ever seen. My thoughts were not that that’s going to be a big thing in the pros, but to me, it showed me that this kid is really an unselfish kid. For him to go through his senior year and not complain about not having the ball thrown to him, and going out there and doing what (Georgia Tech head coach) Paul (Johnson) told him to do (was impressive).”

QB Tim Tebow (1/25): Cal said the team had no illusions about the offense Tebow had played in at Florida or his delivery. Still, his toughness and winning attitude were endearing. “(New head coach) Josh (McDaniels) felt he could help his accuracy and delivery. Taking Tebow would make a splash, and he had to do something to put the Cutler thing to rest. That’s totally speculation, but the guy who made the final decision on Cutler was Josh.”

Cal said he gave Tebow his full endorsement. “I wanted to take him, but a lot of the other guys didn’t. They didn’t see him as the ‘stereotype’ kind of quarterback.” Cal is still a believer: “I look at it this way, and this is just an old scout talking about it, but you have 32 teams carrying three quarterbacks, and you can’t tell me Tebow isn’t one of the top hundred quarterbacks out there right now.”

WO Eric Decker (3/87): Cal said not everyone was sold on the Minnesota pass-catcher, mainly because many scouts were still sore from passing on Ole Miss WO Mike Wallace in the second round the year before. Many in the war room still felt the team needed a deep threat. “He could catch anything, but he wasn’t the fastest guy in the world, and he didn’t give you the top speed. (In the 2009 draft), there was the kid at Ole Miss, Wallace, that could fly, and we hadn’t taken him in the second round that year (despite having three second-round picks), and (the Steelers) had taken him in the third round. He was everything they wanted him to be. (So in 2010,) we didn’t have anybody that could take the top off the defense. We had (WO Eddie) Royal, who was a good slot guy, but not anybody that could just blow by people.”

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