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Monthly Archives: August 2024

My Next Book and Why I’m Excited About It

30 Friday Aug 2024

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It’s been 22 years this weekend since I launched Inside the League. I didn’t really know for sure where ITL would end up, or if I’d ever make a penny, but I really had only one goal: I wanted to know why teams picked (and didn’t pick) the players they chose. The NFL Draft just had so much intrigue then.

More than two decades later, I still know nothing. However, I’ve gotten at least some insights on it over the past four years as I’ve written my next book, which (I hope) comes out around Draft Day 2025. It’s tentatively called “Crazy Eight,” and though that’s a working title, I think it’s fitting. It’s about eight players selected in the 2016 draft — Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott, Laremy Tunsil, Jakeem Grant, Michael Thomas, Derrick Henry and Tyreek Hill — and their draft stories, but told from the perspective of the scouts and executives who drafted them. I’m not sure if you’re familiar with Bob McGinn, a beat writer for the Packers for four decades, but he’s very good at telling the back stories on the draft. That’s what I do in Crazy Eight.

I chose these eight because, No. 1, they’ve all been successful players. Every single one of them has been to at least one Pro Bowl and most have even been All-Pro. But I also chose them because, except in the cases of Goff and Wentz, they were all drafted later than they should have, given what they’ve accomplished in the league. It’s a testament to all of them that they are all (except Thomas, for now), still part of the league almost a decade after being drafted. That’s a real achievement, I don’t care where you were drafted or what kind of impact you had as a player.

How is this book different from my last book? Well, Scout Speak was more-or-less a love letter to the professional player evaluator. If you read it, I hope you learned a little more about how NFL scouts do their jobs and how an NFL scouting department works. For my next book, I hope you’ll learn more about what matters when it comes to evaluating players, how teams differ in their priorities, and maybe even the blind spots for NFL teams and even the limits on what they can even know. There’s a temptation to think that NFL teams know all and see all, but scouts are people, too, and they have to clear multiple obstacles to get the real truth about players. Sometimes, even when they get that information, it’s hard to know what to do about it. Again, scouts are human.

Anyway, the way the book is set up is, the first seven chapters are about the players themselves (Goff and Wentz, who went 1-2 that year, share a chapter). I try to go pretty deep on their backstories and the things that scouts knew, but maybe the general public didn’t know. If you know me, you know I don’t rip people or criticize them for doing their jobs in good faith, and this book is the same way. Hopefully you don’t find that boring. My goal, as always, is to tell stories and inform without embracing the crass trashing of people, even when they come up short, for entertainment purposes.

The last part of the book is dedicated to scouts’ stories about the way a handful of teams approached the draft. This is basically the “war stories” part of the book, and probably what I enjoy most about talking to scouts. There are so many facets to why a team takes the players it takes, and that’s what we dig into. So far, Tom Ciskowski (Cowboys), Don Gregory (Panthers), Matt Lindsey (Eagles), Tom McConnaughey (Chargers), Trey Scott (Raiders), Josh Washburn (Redskins), Steven Price (Vikings) and Chris Prescott (Bears) have shared their draft-day experiences from 2016 with me. I’ve also reached out to other friends to give their recollections, and in some cases, they differ from what I’d heard previously. At any rate, I’m still crafting their responses into narratives. Some of the stories I’ve heard so far have been fascinating, and I look forward to sharing them with you. These are all my friends, and they’ve told me a lot with the understanding that their recollections will be shared in the most positive light. Obviously, I will honor that. They’ve still got some fascinating stories to tell.

Anyway, I hope to have the manuscript done by the end of September, and then I’ll get to work on the audio file, the cover, having it proofread, and all the other vagaries of publishing a book. I look forward to sharing it with people who love scouting and the draft as much as I do. 

Is the College Game Ready for the $1M GM?

23 Friday Aug 2024

Posted by itlneil in Uncategorized

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This week, Alabama’s Courtney Morgan made news with his most recent contract as General Manager of one of college football’s blue blood programs. It prompted some chatter on social media and within college football circles. A big part of that chatter had to do not with Morgan’s new money, but with the title and role itself. Do college football programs really need GMs?

It’s one of the questions I asked longtime NFL executive Eric Stokes, who joined us on the Scouting the League Podcast this week. He, like me, struggles to see how such an over-arching, all-encompassing title is necessary in the college game, given the differences with the pro game.

“I think it’s a completely different animal,” Eric said when comparing the jobs at the college and pro level. “The role of the General Manager at the NFL level is far more complex than the role of the GM at the collegiate level. It doesn’t even compare in terms of the day-to-day operations and the nuances you have to deal with as an NFL GM, because you’re in charge of the entire football operation. You’re dealing with everybody: the trainers, doctors, obviously you have to work with the coaching staff, the college scouting staff, your pro staff. In this day and age you’re working with analytics, you’re working with sports psychologists, obviously you are working very closely with your media department every day.

“There’s just so many different aspects of being a GM at the NFL level. It’s far more complex than at the college (level). Now, I do guess working off that platform at the college level in terms of recruiting and how it works in terms of NIL, the transfer portal, I could see why some of those structures are in place and how they may be implemented, but again, you’re just not dealing with the complexity, also with the salary cap. NIL, you don’t have bonuses, you don’t have accelerators, you don’t have a lot of the things that you’re working with at the pro level. I think they’re two different animals.”

I’d agree with Eric, though in fairness, there’s no general job description for the college GM. Because the college game is so much more coach-driven, with far fewer official “scouts” on staff at the lower level, there’s probably less of a need for someone running the whole football operation. You could argue that even in the SEC, that’s a common sentiment. Only half the schools in arguably the best football conference — Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt — actually have general managers, and their job descriptions don’t line up. 

For now, at least, it doesn’t appear that these teams are seeking someone to build the NFL model given that none of those teams’ GMs have extensive pro football experience. The only college GM that comes to mind with that level of NFL acumen is West Virginia’s Drew Fabianich. In fact, we haven’t seen the mass influx of NFL scouts and executives into the college ranks that many (including myself) expected. Not yet, at least. 

For example, Jake Rosenberg of The Athlete Group assisted in Oklahoma’s selection of Curtis Lofton as the school’s first-ever GM, and is currently working with another conference school as it searches for its first GM. He readily admits that the GM position is a bit of a work in progress and an anticipation of where college football is going.

“The profile or job description of college GM is in the early stages of transition,” he texted. “While it seems like it’ll be a while before the profile exactly matches that of NFL decision maker, the schools looking to function more optimally in this world are moving in that direction.

“That job can be more of a leadership and strategic position and less narrowly as an evaluator or recruiter. There is so much currently on the Head Coach’s plate that bringing in a strong and diverse skill set can appreciably have a broad benefit across the entire operation. And don’t forget the importance of mentorship and skill development to which a GM can/ should be at the heart of.“

Fair enough. I guess so much is in flux that it’s hard to pin down exactly where the GM position is going, as with so many other aspects of college football. How long until we see a million-dollars-per-year GM? Hard to say. I guess we won’t know for a while the true value of a college GM, and it will depend on how the job evolves. In the meantime, it will be interesting to see how many more are hired and how high the dollars go.

 

The Scouting the League Podcast: Our Seven Best Episodes

16 Friday Aug 2024

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It’s only been since the week after Thanksgiving that Rodrik David, who was already running his own podcast, The Scouting Report, invited me to partner with him on it. Since then, we’ve rebranded it Scouting the League, and though it took a while to really establish a rhythm, I think we’ve gotten a lot more comfortable with what we want the podcast to be.

Based on the feedback I’ve gotten from friends in the scouting and agent communities, we’ve been able to establish a space where we dig into the finer points of player representation and evaluation on the NFL level. I’m certainly no expert on things, and I doubt Rodrik would call himself one, either, but we both bring enough to the table to, hopefully, make it a lively weekly show with interesting insights and opinions.

I feel like our shows have gotten better and better, and the guests we’ve been privileged to have always bring their ‘A’ games. At the same time, obviously, some shows are better than others. With that in mind, here are the seven best episodes of Scouting the League, in my humble opinion, along with links in which you can listen for yourself.

1.David Canter, President of Football, GSM Worldwide: David is colorful bordering on outrageous, and this episode is an hour-plus of pure adrenaline. From the story of the chance encounter that led to his start in the industry, to the decision to sell his firm, to his thoughts on several issues facing the industry, David spits fire the entire time. Fair warning — we aren’t at the point where we can bleep out language, and there’s some language in this edition. Aug. 7, 2024

2. Mike McCartney, Head of Football, Vayner Sports: Once again, we got real candor and all the behind-the-scenes intrigue — in a classy, high-road way — from Mike on the drafting of Washington’s Michael Penix after the team had already signed Mike’s client, Kirk Cousins, to start at QB. There’s much more to the hour, but Mike’s discussion of their shock at the pick, plus what happened afterwards, is a must-listen. July 10, 2024

3. Mark Gorscak, former National Scout, Steelers: Mark is a friend of nearly everyone in the scouting community because of his love for the game and for its people. Mark is a great story-teller and thinks about the industry 24-7, which is why his episode was not only insightful but entertaining, as well. This is a great episode if you’re an aspiring scout wanting to learn the fundamentals of the biz and how to get in. March 20, 2024

4. Tom McConnaughey, former National Scout, Chargers & Jaguars: Rodrik and I are still trying to hit our stride on digging into the players and the picks that each guest can discuss, and I think we did our best job yet in this edition. Tom was in the war room for some truly special players; in the last half-hour, we run through several top former Chargers and Tom gives his thoughts on their selection. It’s really, really good.

5. Tony Vilani, Owner, XPE Sports: Tony is one of the top 3-4 speed trainers in the combine prep space, but that’s not why this was such a great episode. He’s also convinced the NFL cooks the books on the official 40 times posted during NFL Combine broadcasts, and he’s very specific about why he thinks what he does. He doesn’t pull any punches in his session with us. April 3, 2024

6. Dru Grigson, former scouting executive, Cardinals: We asked Dru to join us because the Cardinals have been at the forefront in grading and rewarding their scouts for good work, and he gave us plenty of insight into their process. However, he also gave us great background on how the Cards have developed, assigned, and evaluated their own evaluators. July 17, 2024

7. T.J. McCreight, former scouting executive, multiple teams: Having worked for the Eagles, Colts, Ravens and Cardinals, T.J. has seen how a lot of successful teams do things, and he brought that know-how to the podcast. He addresses a lot of the issues associated with the changing game and how to react to them, from a scouting standpoint. July 31, 2024

This week’s Friday Wrap, which comes out tomorrow, will feature my podcast partner Rodrik’s five favorite episodes. Make sure to check it out. Haven’t registered for the Friday Wrap? You can do that here. 

Gauging the Progress of the NCAA’s Antitrust Litigation Settlement

09 Friday Aug 2024

Posted by itlneil in Agents, NIL, Transfer portal

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There isn’t a lot of chatter about it in college and pro football circles — at least none that I’ve picked up — but big parts are moving into place that will determine the future and structure of college football. Late last month, we got a story that was pretty telling about what direction things are going, and until now, I really haven’t had a chance to give it a close look.

This week, however, I did. The lawsuits involve antitrust actions against the NCAA (three of them, in fact, that were resolved collectively). Per the story, the resolution of these lawsuits “outline how past athletes will share the $2.78 billion in damages that the NCAA has agreed to pay, sets up a new system for revenue sharing and outlines new roster limits for a long list of college sports, among other items.” Obviously, $2.78 billion is a lot of money, but that only reflects the back pay previous athletes will receive. It’s just scratching the surface of what’s ahead.

Anyway, no one seems to want to acknowledge what’s ahead and how it will change player representation, so I thought I’d try to comb through the story and draw my own conclusions. Here are a few passages and my comments.

  • “Schools will be permitted for the first time to pay their athletes directly via name, image and likeness (NIL) deals under the terms of the settlement. Each school could provide up to 22% of the average revenue that power conference schools generate from media rights, ticket sales and sponsorships — a sum that is expected to be between $20 million and $22 million per school when the settlement goes into effect at the start of the 2025-26 academic year.” — OK, but this seems like another effort to keep players from getting paid as university employees, which seems completely inevitable. If it is inevitable (and I believe it is), it’s almost stupid to wade through and try to figure out how the terms of this lawsuit will change things, because someone else will sue again soon and tear this agreement down. As for the numbers, $22 million seems a little conservative given that I’ve heard that many schools’ budgets are already north of that number for football only. With the money pouring into football programs, it seems like this number could soar higher quickly. If this is the case, and nothing is done to slow portal movement, the dollars are going to make things even crazier.
  • “Athletes would still be able to make money from NIL deals with third parties, but the NCAA said the settlement will allow them to install a more ‘robust and effective enforcement and oversight program’ to make sure those third-party deals are ‘legitimate NIL activity.'” — I think this is good, but I wonder if there will be real teeth in these oversight programs. More and more, the bigger agencies are signing up the top draft prospects years before they are draft-eligible just so they’ll be at the front of the line when it comes to signing an NFL contract. Sure, the top five percent are getting big national deals, but those are few and far between. 
  • “The NCAA plans to create a database of NIL deals to try to objectively assess whether arrangements between an athlete and a third party qualify as a legitimate endorsement deal.” — Great! But will the results be public? If not, who will have access? Schools? Agents? There’s not an NFLPA-comparable body that can regulate all this, though I presume the NCAA thinks of itself as such a body.  
  • “The settlement allows for the court to appoint a ‘special master’ to rule on any disputes about new rules related to player compensation. . . The two sides have not yet determined who will serve as the new enforcement entity or who will oversee the arbitration process of any future disputes.” — I don’t think this can work through civil litigation processes, which means it will have to be collectively bargained . . . which requires a union. 
  • “It is highly unlikely that football players — who generate the majority of revenue for most schools — will receive 50% of the money that the football team generates. Some of those benefits have to be shared equitably due to Title IX regulations. The settlement does not provide detailed instructions on how to apply Title IX to these new benefits, leaving some potentially tricky decisions up to each individual school.” — This is why this doesn’t seem tenable. Football teams will eventually not want to share revenues. If this isn’t settled promptly, and just left to the schools, it’s going to accelerate football’s pull away from this agreement.
  • “As part of the settlement, the NCAA agreed to remove any limits on the number of scholarships a school can provide to athletes. Previously, NCAA rules dictated a certain number of scholarships per sport. If the settlement is approved, there will instead be a limit on how many total players each team can have on its roster and each individual school will decide how many of those players it wants to put on scholarship.” — This is probably the NCAA trying to throw the bigger schools a bone, but I doubt it works. 

At the end of the day, most agents just want to know what they’ll have to deal with. A nationwide NIL contract database would be huge if contract advisors have access to it. I think most would like to know if there’s going to be some kind of certification process, as well, with most NFL agents I know welcoming that. It’s becoming less necessary, however, as more and more NIL agents pursue NFL certification. They’re a growing part of our exam prep course every year.

Anyway, I may have come across as negative during some of this, and I grant that it’s easy to deride people who are trying to do the virtually impossible, i.e., build a framework for the college game going forward. If the settlement is approved and this 10-year agreement is binding, it will bring some positives. However, it’s hard not to see the overwhelming power and potential of dollars the big football schools would be turning down to abide by this. I just feel like the major conferences will build their own league, and play by their own rules, sooner rather than later.

 

 

2024 NFL Agent Exam: A Few Leftovers

02 Friday Aug 2024

Posted by itlneil in Agent Exam, Agents, Getting started

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After working with hundreds of this year’s aspiring agents over a period of several months, I’ve got a few thoughts. Let me start with the actual content of the exam.

We got a lot of feedback on this year’s exam from the participants, and there were some pretty offbeat questions. For example, one dealt with how an agent should respond when a player faces discipline because he punched his coach in the face on the sideline of a game, knocking him out cold. There was also a question about how often an ex-player could obtain a brain/body scan on the NFLPA’s dime once he’s retired. Several questions dealt with benefits and how players could obtain them once they left the league.

While these are, technically, the kinds of things agents need to know, most people told us they expected more testing on the bread-and-butter issues contract advisors have to face. It’s possible, even likely, that the NFLPA is trying to be elusive in what it tests on as a way of keeping the number of new agents manageable. Right now, there are 994 agents, which is 200-300 more than pre-Covid. We’ll see those numbers sink drastically once the three-year rule catches up to the surging number of new agents who came aboard after 2020, when there was no exam. However, the NFLPA is probably trying to do its part to cull the herd preemptively. 

We’ll make a few adjustments to try to give our clients an edge, as we always have. Next year’s program will look different. We’ll continue getting feedback to make sure we’re providing the service we need to provide.

Here are a few more notes.

  • If you’re eager to get started on player representation and the work of identifying your next client, but can’t until you know you’ve passed the exam, read this piece I wrote a couple years ago. It gives you a few things to work on so you can hit the ground running.
  • We’re still polishing our “agent school” that will be offered in the fourth quarter of the year, once results are out. We’ll have a formal rundown of our Zoom schedule, as well as pricing, in this space in the coming weeks.
  • By the way, you can expect your results in around four weeks. The NFLPA likes to give test-takers about a month to round up the funds for dues and liability insurance, and that deadline is Oct. 1, so sit tight. You’ve got about a month to wait.
  • We’ll have more in today’s Friday Wrap. As always, it’s free, and must reading for people in the industry. Register for it here.

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