I came off the road this week after spending Sunday through Wednesday in Lower Alabama for the Senior Bowl, one of the best weeks of the year if you’re in the football profession. It’s football with a side of Mardi Gras in a friendly town reminiscent of New Orleans.

Here are a few thoughts from the road.

• Most bizarre/sadly funny/semi-tragic plane flight story of the week comes from Jeff Jankovich, an agent I’ve profiled in this space before. Jeff took off from Reagan Airport on Monday morning. About 10 minutes into the flight, the pilot comes over the intercom to say that there’s a mechanical issue and they’ll have to land. That’s the bad news. The really bad news is that they had too much fuel, so they had to circle for two hours before it was safe to put down. Of course, they landed not back at Reagan, but at Dulles. By the time Jeff had deplaned; traveled an hour-and-a-half (through traffic, by bus) from Reagan back to Dulles; then waited in line to be re-ticketed, it was 3 p.m. and there were no more flights to New Orleans. His best option was to go home, then take an early flight the next day to Atlanta, rent a car and drive (about five hours from Mobile; New Orleans is about two). It was not a banner day for American Airlines. Incidentally, big congrats to Jeff for having his first Senior Bowl invitee, West Virginia OC Tyler Orlosky.
• We all know the expression ‘it’s a small world.’ It came to life for me this week as I sat and watched North Carolina receiver Ryan Switzer catch passes and run routes as a member of the North squad. Ryan’s dad, Mike, was a senior offensive lineman at St. Albans High School, about 20 minutes south of Charleston, W.Va., when I was a sophomore. In 1985, we’re two guys on the practice field in a small town in southern West Virginia. More than 30 years later, we’re two guys at Ladd-Peebles Stadium congratulating each other on making it to Mobile, though in completely different ways. Weird, and kinda cool.
• I love going to practices because it’s one of the best chances I get to see and say hi to clients and friends. The only drawback is, because I’m there, I always get asked who’s looking good out there. First of all, I’m so engrossed with catching up with friends that I rarely get a glimpse of the field.  But second — and I know this pretty much goes against everything you’re going to read over the next four months — I just don’t know how much all the hubbub about who’s having a great week and who’s not really matters. Scouting is just entirely too subjective, and most of what you read online about whose ‘stock’ is soaring or falling is really questionable. I’ve been coming to these games so long that I can remember several players that ascended after a strong week (North Carolina DT Ryan Sims in 2002, California QB Kyle Boller in 2003, Arkansas’ Matt Jones in 2005 and Louisville DT Amobi Okoye in 2007 are just a few), then went out and had nondescript NFL careers. I’m sure you could name players that had awesome weeks, then went on to football stardom (Oregon State’s Chad Johnson in 2001 was one), but I just don’t see a strong correlation anymore. That makes it hard to really get excited about what happens here. There are just too many variables, too many unknowns. I know that’s not sexy and not really connected to what you find on the Web these days, but I believe it’s true.
• In keeping with that theme, I’m pretty excited about our coming ITL Combine Seminar set for Wednesday, March 1, at 7 p.m. We’re going to have former Saints and Browns scout Matt Manocherian speak, but not really because he’s a former NFL evaluator. Instead, it’s because he’s now with Sports Info Solutions, a firm that Bill James founded to develop the analytics ideas that have taken hold in baseball (and been featured in Moneyball). I’m not sure analytics translates to football the way it does baseball — just too messy, too much integration between players — but I’m willing to listen with an open mind. I look forward to them discussing how their methods apply to football.

You follow the game, so you already know that Oklahoma DT Charles Walker decided to leave the team this week to focus on his NFL future.

It’s a complicated issue. On one hand, he’s struggled with concussions throughout his time in Norman, and hadn’t played since Oct. 1. Obviously, another concussion might eliminate him from NFL draft boards entirely. On the other hand, there’s loyalty, heart and commitment to the game. How do you walk away from a team that could still wind its way into BCS Championship play?

Already, there’s been plenty of speculation that this kind of decision would make him too hot to handle for NFL teams, especially if head coach Bob Stoops decides to bury him with NFL teams. But rather than speculating, I took the question to several of my friends in scouting. The responses were pretty diverse.

• “Dumb decision. Nobody’s touching a guy with concussion issues. He’s off draft boards most likely.”
• “Do not really know the story very well. Sounds like it is not going to help (him) and more teams will be concerned now.”
• “I don’t think it affects him really at the next level. It’ll rub teammates the wrong way, but also will alert teams for the severity of the concussions. So maybe it did hurt a little bit, but if he’s truly special and it’s an isolated incident, I don’t think it’ll drop him much. NFL teams keep good players for far worst issues.”
• “His number of concussions coupled with games missed is the concern! He has medical issues. He was not playing because of concussions so it would not be in Stoops’ best interest to (criticize him to scouts).”
• “Never good to leave the team completely to focus on individual endeavors while the season’s still going on (unheard of – the first and most important rule of football is never quit). Not that doing what’s best for him isn’t going to work out in the long run . . . but how can you quit the team if you’re able-bodied enough to train for NFL prep (run/lift)? Makes him look out of touch with the team dynamic and self-centered even if his brains are legitimately scrambled and he needs to take off. Media will probably side with him and give him a pass because it involves concussions and stirs up new topics for them to report on.”

The consensus (if there is a consensus) seems to be that the concussions are a bigger issue than his midseason exit from the team. It makes sense. At the end of the day, talent, not attitude, is all that really matters.

Don’t believe it? Almost exactly a year ago, a top player made comments that could be construed as negative and divisive. We even did a blog post about him, and in it, some scouts dismissed his talk, while others were concerned. He went on to be the No. 4 pick in the draft. Today, that player, Cowboys OH Ezekiel Elliott, is the toast of the NFL, maybe the hottest running back in the game.

If you listen to our Two-Minute Drill series of mini-podcasts, you know that this week we compared the value of the NFL combine vs. all-star games as a tool for evaluation. Our take was pretty much that if you’re a player in the top 100-150, the combine is better because scouts already have a rather firm impression of your playing ability, but for lower-rated players, the chance to show your ability in pads is better than a fast 40 time or a series of well-run drills.

Of course, it’s one thing for me to feel this way, but I wanted to get feedback from my friends in the game. The response was interesting and diverse, maybe as diverse as any question I’ve posed to my friends in the business in the two years I’ve run this blog. I guess I shouldn’t be surprised; former Browns GM Ray Farmer told the audience at the ITL Seminar that he prefers all-star games over the combine, simply because it’s actual football, not ‘guys that are ready to be underwear models right now,’ as he said last year.

Anyway, here’s the question I asked:

“As a general rule, do you get more out of the combine or an all-star game? Which is more valuable as an evaluation tool? I realize the scale of the combine is far greater, but in terms of how helpful, what’s better? 2-3 practices in pads with 100 guys you might not have all seen, or 350 guys doing tests in shorts, plus medicals and interviews, all in one place?”

Here’s what I got back from four friends in the business.

• “More out of the combine because those are real players. All-star games are the free agents, even (one of the more established games) is getting horrible.”
• “Depends. Always good to see small-school players compete against the bigger-school guys. Both places are great for access/ interviews. Combine wins for medical. As far as evaluating goes, both are probably overrated.”
• “If you’re asking strictly for evaluation purposes I’d say all-star games.”
• “All-star (games) for football evaluation. Overall importance is the combine because of medical.”

When it comes to draft busts, it’s rare when you hear that a player “wasn’t developed well” or “he just didn’t get the coaching he needed.” The narrative you usually hear is that the GM is dumb or the scouts weren’t thorough or “every other team knew he couldn’t play.”

I wonder if that’s fair, though. Is it true that when players fail, it’s due to poor evaluation? I posed this question to some friends in scouting, and as you might expect, there was sharp disagreement over the premise that the evaluation was wrong.

Here are four responses I got on this question:

When a high draft pick fails, what percentage of the time is it because he wasn’t as good as advertised, and what percentage that he wasn’t coached/developed well by the team?

• “That’s a hard question to answer. There’s so many different reasons. New coordinators, not used right, kid finally got money for the first time, outside influences. There’s just so many reasons. I’d really have to think on that, just because everyone is wired differently.”
• “Players don’t fail! The teams fail for grading a talent that was not good enough based on overrating his talent, or taking him high based on need when he did not belong at that pick, or not smart enough, or the player really did not love football. Those are the players that fail. . . All teams have errors in the first round. There are first-round talents that fail because their addiction, ego or work ethic gets in their way. You can name those. . . Most new GM’s were not good scouts. Their decisions and record tell the tale.”
• “I’d say a quarter or maybe even a third of the time the player is not coached/developed like scouts think he should be. Happens all the time. Majority of the time, if you take a guy high, the player will at the very least have the traits — height, weight, speed, athleticism etc. — so it’s extremely hard for a scout when you feel he’s not getting developed properly. And maybe a third of the time you missed on the guy’s talent and he just wasn’t good enough, good as you thought he was. Another third, you miss on the person. You didn’t realize how the kid was wired, whether it’s toughness, motivation, mental capacity, whatever reason.”
• “Definitely, it is more often than not getting a bad match with a system or coaching staff, oh maybe would say 50/50. I have seen coaches and been told, ‘man, who do you want to make it? We totally control who plays and who looks good.’ Actually, (our defensive coordinator) told me that sitting with a couple of scouts one night. I saw it with (our head coach) and his staff. If you brought someone in they did not like, he had no chance. (That’s) totally why personnel and coaching has to be on the same page, because a lot of (coaches) do not like personnel guys telling them, ‘this guy is good,’ when what they saw they thought (at the Senior Bowl, or during limited film study), he stunk, wanting to prove they were right. (Our head coach was) totally like that. Oh, (our head coach was) nice and fun to scouts until there is a difference of opinion on a guy and he does not get the guy he wanted. But there are some (head coaches) who know that none of us are right 100% of the time, but they respect the process.”

After dozens of conversations with scouts and executives around the game, it’s my impression that NFL teams mostly see seventh-round picks as lottery tickets. They’re high reward with low-to-no risk. They don’t usually make the roster for very long anyway, and just as importantly, the media never blames the GM when a seventh-rounder doesn’t pan out.

On the other hand, if you can hit with a seventh-rounder, you’ve done something special. Your scouting department sorted through the hundreds of players seen as undrafted free agents and picked the ones that could really make an impact. For that reason, I thought I’d take a look at the teams whose seventh-rounders have hung around the league most often.

• What’s most interesting is that there’s a runaway winner. The Vikings have 10 seventh-rounders knocking around the league, either on the 53 or on practice squads.
• The Seahawks are in second place with eight. This is interesting to me because, as we’ve seen, Seattle has been one of the most active teams in terms of relying on test scores and triangle numbers on draft day, maybe even more than performance or experience. The fact that eight players drafted in the last round by the ‘Hawks are still in the league tells me more and more teams are trying to copy their model.
• The Raiders, Eagles and Steelers are tied for third with seven players. This is an indication that maybe the Eagles under head coach/GM Chip Kelly did better on draft day than Kelly did coaching his players on the field. It also tells me the Raiders  are turning things around under GM Reggie Mackenzie, and those results are starting to show on the field. The Steelers are the Steelers, one of the best franchise in the league for several years now, and their drafting acumen reflects that.
• The Broncos are next with six, and that’s where the numbers get tougher to distill.
• There are seven teams tied with five ‘sevens’ still in the league. They are the Falcons, Bills, Browns, Cowboys, Packers, 49ers and Titans. Of this group, the Cowboys, Packers and Niners have already shown that they know how to draft. The other teams aren’t known as ‘getting it’ on draft day, but maybe they should get more credit.
• That’s the top third of the league. Now let’s take a look at the bottom third. Believe it or not, the Ravens have no seventh-rounders still active in the league. Without doing a lot of research, I don’t know if the team has gotten in the habit of trading its seventh-rounders or if the team has just rolled the dice far too often, but we couldn’t find any active as of the first week of the season. The team didn’t have a seventh-rounder this year.
• The Giants and Buccaneers each have one seventh-rounder in the league, and that’s one reason why both teams, despite having franchise quarterbacks, are still inconsistent at best.

Take a look at the full list here.