• About

Succeed in Football

~ The daily blog written by ITL's Neil Stratton

Succeed in Football

Category Archives: Scouts

A Scout’s Words of Wisdom: Matt Lindsey

20 Wednesday Jul 2016

Posted by itlneil in Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Matt Lindsey, NFL Scouting

Today, ITL’s Mark Skol talks to Matt Lindsey, who until February was the Eagles’ Scouting Coordinator. Matt worked his way up, starting as an intern in Philly after first working for Nick Saban in personnel at Alabama. Though he worked for the top program in college football, then rose pretty quickly up the ranks for the Eagles, he was the victim of a regime change, as so often happens in the NFL.

Here’s the second edition in our series.

  1. What is the one thing NFL draft fans don’t understand about the evaluation process, and about how NFL teams scout players, that they should know? 

“I think the biggest thing is how much time goes into it and the amount of work leading up to the draft. It goes back a year, two years, and sometimes even three years. An area scout is going to go into a school three times. There’s going to be another guy who goes in there twice, and there’s probably going to be another person who goes to a game. There are hundreds of hours dedicated to a single player taken in the draft regardless if it’s first round, fifth round or undrafted. They are putting in the work, not only to figure out who the player is on the field, but also off the field. I think fans see a 6-foot-5 player who is 250 pounds and had 10 sacks and automatically think he should be a first-round pick. Well, maybe he shouldn’t be. Maybe he doesn’t have the instincts, or the strength, or the explosion that we look for. Maybe he’s bad off of the field. I don’t think your average NFL fan has a full scope of understanding what all goes in to projecting a player in the NFL.”

  1. We all know the best advice for a young man hoping to play in the NFL is to play his best football this fall. However, as a former scout, what would you tell a young man’s parents?

“The most important thing they can do for their son is to be supportive. Going into their senior year, there is a lot of pressure on them, and they feel like they need to perform. Whether it comes from their coaches, player or parents, there is a lot of pressure on them. After their senior season, they go into all-star games, combines, pro days, and working out for teams, and it’s a very stressful process for the players. The last thing the parents should do is add stress to that. We see that a lot of times when a family is more of a drain on the player than actually helping the player. The most important thing for the parents is to be supportive, to be the rock for the player and not add stress to what’s already a stressful process for them.”

  1. If a young person asked you how to break into the scouting business, what advice would you have for him? 

“The most important thing is to be involved. Find a way to be involved. Your resume should show you have a passion for football, whether it’s coaching high school football or helping out at the college level or finding a way to work for an arena team or whatever it may be. The door is not always open as far as NFL scouting jobs go, but every single person who works at that level did something before that. If you can get involved in some way, then that’s going to go a long way as far as getting your foot in the door somewhere else. For me, I didn’t play college football. I got my foot in the door in the weight room.  From there, I worked at football operations and recruiting at a big college, and then I met people and got a chance to go to the NFL at an entry-level job. I think you just have to find a way to get involved and stay involved. It speaks to the person’s passion if you see them being involved with it.”

A Scout’s Words of Wisdom: Morocco Brown

19 Tuesday Jul 2016

Posted by itlneil in Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Morocco Brown, NFL Scouting

We’re just days from NFL scouts descending on training camps, agent hopefuls taking the NFLPA exam, and college players reporting to school to prep for the 2016 schedule. This means that there are several groups focusing on being their best for the ’16 season.

With that in mind, this week, we’re asking former NFL scouts three common questions we get from fans, aspiring scouts and parents of prospects, three major groups that read this blog. Today, we’ll kick things off with former Browns Vice President of Player Personnel Morocco Brown. Roc, as his friends know him, has plenty of words of advice for almost anyone interested in the game behind the game. Here’s a transcript of his conversation with ITL’s Mark Skol.

  1. What is the one thing NFL draft fans don’t understand about the evaluation process, and about how NFL teams scout players, that they should know? 

“How deep teams dig to find out about the player’s personal character and football character. We really want to know who they are. The tape is one thing because it’s so accessible, and you can watch it from anywhere on the planet as long as you have Wi-Fi on your Ipad. That’s going to be there, and there is plenty of time to watch the tape. But going into the school, talking to them, finding out contacts, going to the guy’s high school and talking to people who grew up with them and talking to his family down the stretch . . . people don’t realize how much goes into that to really figure out who is this guy — not only who we will invest money in, but someone who we will let join our organization. A lot of resources are put into that. Psychologically. Background information. Who is this guy? Does he love football? I don’t think they understand the magnitude of what goes into it.”

  1. We all know the best advice for a young man hoping to play in the NFL is to play his best football this fall. However, as a former scout, what would you tell a young man’s parents? 

“During his senior year, I would tell them not to apply any extra pressure on him. Because then, it turns into what you get out of the game (more than) just playing the game. Your thought process turns and it’s not about going out and doing my best and helping my teammates and university win the game; it’s, ‘where am I getting picked here, and did I do this or do that?,’ rather than just playing the game and doing what you’ve done to get to where you are your whole life. When you start thinking about the monetary part of everything, it can be a dangerous slippery slope.”

  1. If a young person asked you how to break into the scouting business, what advice would you have for him? 

“Seek out contacts and follow up with them. If you do that, the main thing to do is to not quit or get discouraged when you are told no. In my case, I only had one team call back out of the 32 I sent my resume, and I wound up being one guy out of seven auditioning for an intern position. If I would have listened to all of those letters that said “no, no, no,” I would have just quit.”

Are All Supplemental Draft Prospects Character Risks?

05 Tuesday Jul 2016

Posted by itlneil in Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

NFL Scouting, Supplemental Draft

These days, if you’re looking for a pro football fix, you’re pretty much left with the NFL’s Supplemental Draft, which is slated for later this month. Of course, comparing the supplemental draft with the NFL draft is like comparing a toy car with a Ferrari.

Finding supplemental draft success stories isn’t easy. It’s been quite a while since the ‘supp draft’ was turning out players like Miami’s Bernie Kosar and Steve Walsh, Ohio State’s Cris Carter, Alabama’s Bobby Humphrey and Syracuse’s Rob Moore in the late 80s. Since then, there have been solid players here and there but no consistency. In fact, the only one that really stands out in the past decade is Baylor’s Josh Gordon, who, ahem, turned out to have character issues.

It made me wonder if all such players that wind up on the post-draft scrap heap have obvious character warts, since so few ever get drafted and fewer still make a real impact. I reached out to six scouts this morning with just that question. Answers mostly confirmed my thesis, though some were mixed.

  • One scout said that in the “75-90 % range” of cases, it’s either character or an NCAA-related issue such as a player who was waiting on an eligibility ruling that came in late.
  • Another scout said most supp draft prospects are “not necessarily bad people,” though he allowed that sometimes such players are bad apples.
  • One strongly disagreed, calling my thesis way too broad. “I’ve never seen a study but personally I don’t believe that would be a very factual statement,” he said, and indicated that he feels most players in the supp draft are victims of circumstances beyond their control.
  • Another agreed with me, confirming that it’s “usually the case” that the player in question has off-field problems that are significant.
  • The final one I corresponded with said he wouldn’t say 90 percent had character issues, but said probably half did. “Lots of warts with supplemental drafting,” he admitted.

I guess the reason most teams pass on supplemental draft prospects is more because they don’t make the grade on the field than off the field. As always, however, character goes into each evaluation, and might tip the balance. How much is hard to determine.

 

Five Questions with NFL Network’s Aditi Kinkhabwala

01 Friday Jul 2016

Posted by itlneil in Agents, Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Aditi Kinkhabwala, NFL agent, NFL Scouting

We try to offer plenty of tips, observations and other useful info for people aspiring to work in the business of football in this space, and we usually focus on folks who want to be scouts, agents, financial professionals or marketers. On the other hand, there’s the media track, and we haven’t done a lot with that. Today, however, that ends.

Technically, my inroad into the business came from the media, as I started off as a simple news writer for small papers before jumping to the Houston Chronicle, then to my own service, ITL. At any rate, our purpose is to give you ideas on how to break into the football world, so today, we talk to Aditi Kinkhabwala, who’s a national correspondent for the NFL Network.

Aditi started out with the San Antonio Express-News before moving on to the Bergen (N.J.) Record and the Wall Street Journal before landing with the network. Along the way, we traveled in similar circles and she became a friend. From here, I’ll turn it over to my super-intern, Mark Skol, who conducted this interview, and Aditi.

What is it like for you, day to day?: “On any given day, I can be sent to any team’s facilities. If it is during the week, then I’m covering, ‘what is the news of today or what is a story I feel is worthwhile to share with our readers?’ On game day, it’s different. On game day, I am on the field before the game and directing our viewers to what things to look for, what notable things happened during the week, and what can impact the game we are about to see. I do that right up until kickoff. I cover the game and after the game I secure a one-on-one interview and then I go into the locker room and talk to as many players as I can to get anything we may need as the week goes on. It’s a little bit different than when I was just a writer. You can’t edit yourself as much. When you’re writing, it’s different. For NFL.com, I don’t write as much as when I was a newspaper writer because there is more time spent on air, but I write a lot of columns or features.”

How did you get the job at NFL Network?: “It is almost serendipity. I was covering the New York Giants in their last Super Bowl run during the 2011 season. They were about to play the NFC Championship game in San Francisco. The NFL Network wanted a local ‘expert’ on air for a few minutes to discuss the Giants and this matchup. I went on air for I don’t even think four minutes. They asked me some questions and I guess the way that I answered caught the attention of the head of our newsroom David Eaton. David called me and said, ‘Have you ever thought about being on television?’ Thus began a couple-months-long process. We agreed to meet at the Super Bowl; we met for an hour and a half and began this process. I was very lucky because I loved my job at the Wall Street Journal. I loved my job and I wasn’t necessarily looking to leave and I wasn’t looking to leave newspapers. It was a great opportunity and here I am four years later.”

When did you think, ‘I have a cool job?:’ “I thought that all long. I wouldn’t have done what I do if I didn’t feel that way. I was always going to go to law school since I was 7 years old. My first aspiration was to pitch for the New York Yankees, (and) when I knew that wasn’t going to happen, I wanted to be a lawyer. I was an American Studies major at Cornell, and the sports writing in San Antonio was only supposed to be one year, maybe two years tops, and then I was supposed to go to law school. But somewhere, in the first two weeks working in Texas, I just thought, ‘this is awesome.’ It was because I was being paid to talk to people. It was my job to talk to people and find out their stories. I love to hear about other people and I was getting paid to do it. The craft of writing also appealed to me, the art of storytelling. I don’t know that one job has been cooler than a previous one. I’m not star-struck. Anytime I get to tell a story that is really meaningful, I think it’s really cool.”

What are some of the downs of the business?: “The travel can sometimes get very daunting when you are delayed for long periods of time and you are away from home. I have a young son. He just turned 11 months old. When my pregnancy was proceeding, it became a little bit difficult with the travel and the heat of the summer. Things like that are challenging but it doesn’t have anything to do with the nature of the job.”

What advice do you have for an aspiring journalist?: “Never be afraid to ask questions. Don’t ever think you know the story before you go in to find the story because if you have an open mind, you will often be surprised. Talk to people how you would want to be talked to. Know how you would want to be approached. Don’t be afraid of anyone. Treat people with respect and you will get respect in return.”

What’s Summer Like for NFL Scouts and Execs?

21 Tuesday Jun 2016

Posted by itlneil in Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

NFL Scouting

The perception is that after the June mini-camp is over, that’s pretty much it for the NFL until players report in late July. However, I didn’t know for sure that that was true, so I reached out to several scouts and other friends in executive-level positions.

Most area scouts I spoke to said their teams give them the summer off, for the most part. “I drink beer, go to concerts and (baseball) games,” said one scout. “Re-charge and do my fall schedule. I work for a team that values family time.”

Another agreed that it’s basically off time for the summer. “Post-draft is usually the first chance scouts get to somewhat relax,” he said. “To me the best course of action is to take time and decompress.”

Of course, other teams see the summer as catch-up time. “Some teams have their scouts immediately begin watching tape and having all the future draftable players in next year’s draft written up by July 1,” one scout said. “I’ve had where I watched tape the entire summer, but you’re worn out already on tape by time camp begins.”

Watching tape is part of the summer activities for several scouts I polled. “I like to watch at least a few games of every prospect I will see in the fall,” one scout told me. “If I spread it out correctly, the workload isn’t too much and it helps me get ahead for the fall.”

The one thing that seems to be universal during the summer, at least for area scouts, is that they begin to decide when and where they’ll hit the various schools they’re scheduled to scout that fall. I was under the impression this was all mapped out by the Director of College Scouting, but this does not seem to be the case.

As for GMs, it’s an entirely different proposition. At the executive level, there’s a lot more work getting done. One source’s list included:

  • Set-up early boards for the next fall college evals.
  • Seniors and juniors to watch for.
  • Watch previous seasons tape on aforementioned.
  • Tag players that scouts had as draftable or PFA’s (priority free agents) that didn’t get to sign or make it thru OTAs (excluding injuries).
  • Evaluate the players that have finished two seasons to grade scouts.
  • Reach out to college tree on who they like in their conference as real guys – not their own teams.
  • Early prep on upcoming unrestricted free agents. Make sure who is in the last year, along with potential cap cuts, contract voidable, etc.
  • Potential trades and looking at excess on other teams’ rosters.
  • Thin spots by team.
  • Media comments on camp/OTA performances.

I guess the bottom line is that schedules vary, but even workaholics need a little time to reset so their brains don’t turn to mush.

Follow Your Passion (Mostly)

13 Monday Jun 2016

Posted by itlneil in Agents, Scouts

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

NFL agent, NFL Scouting

I’ve always tried to be encouraging when I can in this space. We all have dreams, and plenty of people that discourage us from that dream. You don’t need someone else telling you you can’t do it, especially if your passion is like mine, to work in the football business.

However, last week, I saw this short video, and it made me think I need to make myself a little clearer.

If you want to be an NFL player, or a scout, or an agent, or a member of a football team’s administration, that’s great. But I urge you to understand when it’s time to maybe deviate a little from your goal. Follow your passion, but don’t be stubborn about it.

In the video, TV personality Mike Rowe discusses a septic tank cleaner he once profiled for his show, ‘Dirty Jobs.’ This wealthy owner of a sanitation business — literally, a dirty job — told Rowe that he looked to see which direction everyone else was going, and he went in the opposite direction. That’s pretty much my story, too.

When my buddy, Troy, and I launched our draft service, Lone Star Football, back in ’98, it’s fair to say that our unspoken agendas were to be recognized by an NFL team and hired as scouts. After four years, that didn’t happen, so I retooled. I basically went in the direction that was opposite everyone else. Even today, when I try to describe what I do, the person I’m speaking with kind of squints his eyes, then asks, ‘so you’re an agent?’ My job doesn’t fit neatly into a traditional role like scouting, or recruiting, or negotiating contracts. But that’s OK, because enough people get it that I’ve been able to make it into my business and support my family with it, and by God’s grace, we continue to grow.

This message is true even if you reach your one true passion, be it scouting or working as an agent or whatever. In my business, I work with several ex-scouts. One, in particular, got let go by a team a few years ago, and really struggled for a while before coming to the realization that he couldn’t sulk about not finding work. He had to find another way to make money, at least in the short run, realizing that scouting isn’t an entitlement. He got rehired by a team, but when the end came (again), he was ready, and already had an alternate profession. He’s thriving now because he was willing to face facts and live in the real world.

Today’s message is not meant to dissuade you from joining me in the football business (and I want to help you!). However, I want you to remember that if you go too far down a road that’s clearly too heavily trafficked, find a different path that gets you where you ultimately want to be. If that one gets too busy, try another one. Keep on looking until you find the one that best suits you and that people will pay you to do. That’s where your passion will really be rewarded.

 

Do Teams Really Grade Draft Trades on Points?

09 Thursday Jun 2016

Posted by itlneil in Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

NFL draft, NFL Scouting

You get a lot of media narratives when it comes to the NFL draft. Some are true, some aren’t. One storyline that’s gotten a lot of traction is that Jimmy Johnson, during his time running the Cowboys in the 80s and 90s, he developed a value points system for every pick in the draft, and he used it to weigh the draft-day offers he’d get, as well as the offers he’d make.

One year, I was part of the draft broadcast team for a major radio network, and one of my counterparts was a guy who had spent a little time in an NFL front office and used it to market himself as a personnel guru. At one point, the host asked about the value points system, and I kind of brushed it off, explaining that teams wouldn’t lock themselves into something so one-dimensional. He overruled me, countering that all teams used it and it was a routine part of every team’s war room.

I’ve always wondered which one of us was right, so I asked several of my friends in scouting (seven, to be exact) about it. The responses I got fit into three categories.

  • “We don’t use it:” I only got this response from one team, but it’s one of the better franchises in the NFL. The scout said that, instead, the team compares the offer against similar previous offers and uses draft histories to evaluate each trade.
  • “We use it as part of our evaluation system:” One scout said his team uses 11 different charts to measure draft trades, and Johnson’s chart is one of them. One told me everyone uses it to some degree, and estimated that there are 3-4 other charts out there that teams use.
  • “We do our own charts:” One scout said his team uses its analytics people to develop its own value system for picks. Another scout said his team uses a chart that is very similar, but that his team does not use Johnson’s chart. Another scout said his team is always evaluating its charts and they change every year. Things can get pretty complicated: variables include the relative value of a position, which changes from year to year, the performances of players at differing places in the draft, etc. “It’s a very fluid chart,” one scout said, calling it “football’s version of the slide rule.”

In the end, I guess every team has its own way of doing things, but the idea of a chart, and assigning value to picks, is valid. I guess the main takeaway is that teams are always looking for ways to look at data and break the code for success.

The NFL’s Draft Gurus

25 Wednesday May 2016

Posted by itlneil in Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

NFL draft, NFL Scouting

Next week is a big week for the 2017 draft. I know that sounds odd, but it’s true. The week after Memorial Day is traditionally when BLESTO and National Football Scouting (NFS) introduce their subscribing teams to the next draft class.

If you read this blog, you probably already know what I’m talking about, but if not, here’s a quick primer. About two-thirds of NFL teams subscribe to one of two scouting services, NFS and BLESTO. BLESTO is the older of the services (and based in Jacksonville, Fla.), but National (based in Indianapolis) probably has a slightly better reputation among teams (and a few more subscribing teams). Both services command six-figure sums to provide teams with a detailed but preliminary look at the top rising seniors. Their lists usually number in the 800- to 1,000-player range, and players are given a grade (each service has its own proprietary grading system).

On one hand, these services give subscribing teams a big hand up on evaluation. Based on what these ‘combines’ tell teams, most scouting coordinators put together travel schedules for their scouts. Players with high scores achieve tremendous status going into their senior seasons, and automatically head to the top of the draft list, at least in the early stages of the season.

On the other hand, these services are far from infallible. Subscribing teams have to provide a scout to pitch in his services, and usually these scouts are either new to the business, quite young, or both. In fact, the combine scout role has become the intermediary step between scouting assistant and full-fledged road scout. Therefore, lots of the people putting these grades together are cutting their teeth in the business. In fact, a tremendous amount of their jobs is not a lot different from your garden variety draft fan — combing through hundreds of college rosters to find players that fit certain parameters, calling coaches and asking for recommendations, and even Googling to find top players in out-of-the-way conferences.

Next week will also serve as a kickoff for agents to start looking for these lists. Though they’re proprietary, and very hard to find, and far from perfect, these are seen as the best tool for kicking off recruiting. In fact, to some degree, NFS/BLESTO week kicks off recruiting for most agencies. Getting a copy of the list is almost seen as a measure of status for agents (especially young ones). When you’ve gotten your hands on one of the lists, it means you’ve arrived as an agent. You’ve got juice. You’re wired. You have connections.

The one caveat to the lists is that only seniors are evaluated. It’s one way the NFL has built detente with several schools that would rather not have their players’ heads filled with pro football dreams. As we’ve seen, especially the last few years, the truly elite players rarely make it to their senior seasons. One day soon, the combines will have to address this, or someone else will fill that market space. It’s just one more possible niche you can fill if you’re trying to figure out how to crack the league.

Anyway, as you maybe take a post-draft break from the gridiron and enjoy burgers and dogs by the pool this weekend, understand that NFL scouts are digging in and getting ready for what’s in store in about 11 months.

The Fine Line

20 Friday May 2016

Posted by itlneil in Agents, ITL, Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

ITL, NFL agent, NFL Scouting

This time of year is tough because I spend a lot of time consoling agents and parents of players. It’s a pretty desperate time.

Most often, the question is, ‘why didn’t my client (or my son) get signed or drafted? He got so much attention from teams and we thought there was genuine interest. Now, nothing.’ Though I’ve been hearing this for about 10 years now, I don’t have an answer. The best I can do is shake my fist (figuratively) at the teams and their scouts and do my best to reassure them. It rarely works.

This week, however, I got to play scout. In a sense.

As I’ve discussed in this space before, I’m one of six partners in a search firm based here in Texas. We work pretty much exclusively with high schools (we’ve done one college), filling mainly head coach and athletic director vacancies. This week we conducted interviews for a highly successful and rather storied school district. We sat down to evaluate 13 men and women for an hour each over two days.

Sometimes when we conduct interviews it’s pretty simple to figure out who the best candidates are, but not this time. The way the schedule was set up, we thought the ones we’d like best would be the ones we’d meet on Wednesday, but it didn’t work out that way. In fact, at the end of Day 1, we felt like we already had five candidates we could take to the superintendent. I felt a little unsettled when we finished up on Tuesday. Who would we cut? I half-hoped the candidates on Wednesday would be busts, disappointments. I was so upset by things that I woke up at 3 a.m. that morning. I was reluctant to ‘root against’ anyone, but I also didn’t know what we’d do if all our candidates measured up Wednesday.

Naturally, the folks we brought in Wednesday were very good. Each was qualified and knowledgeable, with no surprises or disappointments. The ones we expected to like, we did like, only we liked others, too. As I drove home last night, for the first time in the six or seven years I’ve worked with Champions, I didn’t call the preferred candidates on the way home. I still had no idea who we’d choose.

It was during those four hours on the road that I called Jim Hess, one of my partners with Champions and a former NFL scout with the Cowboys. “I don’t know,” he said. “It’s almost like we could throw darts at the wall. They’re all pretty good.”

It was at that point that I realized I was experiencing what scouts experience, just on a much smaller scale.

Once you get past maybe the fourth round, the difference between players gets a little tricky. Once you get past the seventh round, the difference is almost indistinguishable. Once you get past the undrafted free agent signees and start to look at who should be brought in for tryouts, it’s almost impossible.

We know that there is a difference between these players, of course. Every season, undrafted free agents make a significant impact on the game. But those players made it all the way through the draft with 32 teams’ scouts passing on them. Figuring out what separates the impact players from the others is something few, or no, teams can do consistently.

And that’s the dilemma. Though I get frustrated when my clients’ people get passed over by teams, I can’t say I don’t understand why it happens. But that’s little comfort, to them or to me.

Guest Columnist: For WOs, Speed Is Overrated

10 Tuesday May 2016

Posted by itlneil in Scouts

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

speed overrated, Troy Brown

Today, the blog is turned over to my former partner, Troy Brown, whom I’ve discussed in this space previously. Though he doesn’t write formally for a draft publication, he’s closely followed the draft for about three decades.

I think he makes some great points here, and backs it up with numbers and facts. I’ll turn things over to Troy now.


Like many, I ranked Ole Miss WO Laquon Treadwell as the No. 1 pass-catcher for the 2016 draft throughout the entire 2015 season. I still do.

However, long before the real draft process began, it seemed to me that Treadwell would not be the first receiver to come off the board on draft night. The simple reason was twofold: he’d likely run a subpar 40 time in the spring and drop down many big boards; and a less-polished player would blaze his way up many big boards.

So when Houston traded up in the first round to take Notre Dame’s Will Fuller—who easily clocks in the low 4.3s—ahead of Treadwell (and Josh Doctson, my No. 2 WR), it came as no surprise. It’s happened time and time again over the past 30 years.

It’s a strange phenomenon, considering that the vast majority of the best wide receivers in the NFL — both in today’s game and historically — have not been true “burners.”

In fact, of the 26 wide receivers in the Hall of Fame, there’s only one elite speed merchant, Bob Hayes. The vast majority of the others, including Jerry Rice, Michael Irvin, Steve Largent and Chris Carter, etc. would have a hard time breaking 4.6.

In terms of historical productivity, among the Top 25 wide receivers in career receptions, only Marvin Harrison (No. 2) and Steve Smith (No. 13) ever clocked below 4.4. What’s more, even in today’s game, consider the top wide receivers. Based on numbers over the past couple of seasons, you could make a strong case it includes Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, DeAndre Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall and Demaryius Thomas. In that group, only Jones is a 4.3 guy.

Yet it’s easy to rattle off dozens of guys who blazed sub-4.4 times prior to the draft, dramatically shot up draft boards, then never came close to fulfilling their potential. In fact, most of them became major disappointments. Alexander Wright, R. Jay Soward, Troy Williamson and Donte Stallworth come to mind, to name just a few.

To test the theory that speed is overrated, consider the last 20 years of official combine 40 times for receivers. Let’s begin with players who’ve been in the league for at least three seasons, figuring that by that time you pretty much know who can and cannot play. For our purposes, “burners” are receivers with a 40 time below 4.4.

Over the 20-year span, from 1994-2013, a whopping 71 wide receivers recorded an official combine 40 time lower than 4.4. Of that group, just five made a Pro Bowl. Leading the group are Julio Jones and Calvin Johnson, both Hall of Fame talents with multiple selections. DeSean Jackson is a three-time Pro Bowler while Mike Wallace and Javon Walker each made just one appearance.

Below is a list of all 71 WRs to clock a sub-4.40 during a 20-year stretch:

Round Name Team Time
2013
1 (8) Austin, Tavon Rams 4.34
3 (78) Goodwin, Marquise Bills 4.27
4 (102) Boyce, Josh Patriots 4.38
6 (174) Swope, Ryan Cardinals 4.34
2012
1 (30) Jenkins, A.J. 49ers 4.37
2 (43) Hill, Stephen Jets 4.3
3 (69) Graham, T.J. Bills 4.35
4 (96) Givens, Chris Rams 4.37
4 (100) Benjamin, Travis Browns 4.32
4 (107) Wylie, Devon Chiefs 4.37
6 (198) Streeter, Tommy Baltimore 4.34
Undrafted Owusu, Chris 4.31
2011
1 (6) Jones, Julio Falcons 4.34
4 (111) Gates, Edmond Dolphins 4.31
Undrafted Lockette, Ricardo 4.34
2010
4 (107) Easley, Marcus Bills 4.39
4(108) Ford, Jacoby Raiders 4.22
6 (197) Holliday, Trindon Texans 4.21
Undrafted Banks, Brandon 4.39
2009
1 (7) Heyward-Bey, Darius Raiders 4.25
1 (22) Harvin, Percy Vikings 4.39
3 (84) Wallace, Mike Steelers 4.28
3 (91) Butler, Deon Seahawks 4.31
4 (107) Thomas, Mike Jaguars 4.3
4 (124) Murphy, Louis Raiders 4.32
5 (140) Knox, Johnny Bears 4.29
5 (141) McKinley, Kenny Broncos 4.37
7 (224) Byrd, Demetrius Chargers 4.35
7 (253) Underwood, Tiquan Jaguars 4.31
Undrafted Ogletree, Kevin 4.36
2008
2 (42) Royal, Eddie Broncos 4.39
2 (49) Jackson, DeSean Eagles 4.38
2 (58) Jackson, Dexter Bucs 4.33
3 (97) Caldwell, Andre Bengals 4.35
4 (105) Franklin, Will Chiefs 4.37
4 (125) Shields, Arman Raiders 4.37
2007
1 (2) Johnson, Calvin Lions 4.35
1 (27) Meacham, Robert Saints 4.39
3 (74) Figurs, Yamon Ravens 4.3
3 (75) Robinson, Laurent Falcons 4.38
3 (76) Hill, Jason 49ers 4.32
3 (79) Walker, Mike Jaguars 4.35
5 (146) Allison, Aundrae Vikings 4.39
5 (157) Clowney, David Packers 4.36
2006
2 (36) Jackson, Chad Patriots 4.32
3 (95) Reid, Willie Steelers 4.37
7 (233) Aromashodu, Devin Dolphins 4.35
2005
1 (7) Williamson, Troy Vikings 4.38
3 (68) Roby, Courtney Titans 4.36
4 (114) Mathis, Jerome Texans 4.32
2004
4 (99) Francis, Carlos Raiders 4.31
4 (105) Parker, Samie Chiefs 4.34
6 (171) Luke, Triandos Broncos 4.33
2003
1 (17) Johnson, Bryant Cardinals 4.38
2 (45) Johnson, Bethel Texas A&M 4.3
2 (60) Calico, Tyrone Mid Tenn St. 4.27
2002
1 (20) Walker, Javon Packers 4.32
2 (46) Carter, Tim Giants 4.34
2 (47) Davis, Andre Browns 4.36
7 (254) Lockett, Andre Bucs 4.27
2001
3 (74) Smith, Steve Panthers 4.38
5 (162) Carter, Jonathan Giants 4.35
6 (190) Kasper, Kevin Broncos 4.38
7 (208) Capel, John Bears 4.37
7 (214) Germany, Reggie Bills 4.37
7 (218) Taylor, Chris Steelers 4.31
2000
1 (29) Soward, R. Jay Jaguars 4.34
3 (70) Cole, Chris Broncos 4.34
1999
None
1998
2 (42) Johnson, Pat Ravens 4.39
1997
1 (15) Green, Yatil Dolphins 4.38
1996
None
1995
None
1994
3 (70) Coleman, Andre Chargers 4.39

 

As you can see, there seems to be absolutely no correlation between blazing 40 times and wide receiver success in the NFL. I would venture to guess that, unless you are a true aficionado, you likely won’t remember the vast majority of these guys.

Who wasn’t on the list? Guys such as Terrell Owens (4.63), Anquan Boldin (4.75), Isaac Bruce (4.53) and Antonio Brown (4.54), to name a few.

So, next spring, when the media freaks out about the receiver who blazes a 4.31 in Indianapolis and proclaims him to be “shooting up the draft boards,” ask yourself, “why?”

← Older posts
Newer posts →

Archives

Inside the League

Inside the League

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.

Privacy & Cookies: This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this website, you agree to their use.
To find out more, including how to control cookies, see here: Cookie Policy
  • Subscribe Subscribed
    • Succeed in Football
    • Join 90 other subscribers
    • Already have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.
    • Succeed in Football
    • Subscribe Subscribed
    • Sign up
    • Log in
    • Report this content
    • View site in Reader
    • Manage subscriptions
    • Collapse this bar