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Guest Columnist: For WOs, Speed Is Overrated

10 Tuesday May 2016

Posted by itlneil in Scouts

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speed overrated, Troy Brown

Today, the blog is turned over to my former partner, Troy Brown, whom I’ve discussed in this space previously. Though he doesn’t write formally for a draft publication, he’s closely followed the draft for about three decades.

I think he makes some great points here, and backs it up with numbers and facts. I’ll turn things over to Troy now.


Like many, I ranked Ole Miss WO Laquon Treadwell as the No. 1 pass-catcher for the 2016 draft throughout the entire 2015 season. I still do.

However, long before the real draft process began, it seemed to me that Treadwell would not be the first receiver to come off the board on draft night. The simple reason was twofold: he’d likely run a subpar 40 time in the spring and drop down many big boards; and a less-polished player would blaze his way up many big boards.

So when Houston traded up in the first round to take Notre Dame’s Will Fuller—who easily clocks in the low 4.3s—ahead of Treadwell (and Josh Doctson, my No. 2 WR), it came as no surprise. It’s happened time and time again over the past 30 years.

It’s a strange phenomenon, considering that the vast majority of the best wide receivers in the NFL — both in today’s game and historically — have not been true “burners.”

In fact, of the 26 wide receivers in the Hall of Fame, there’s only one elite speed merchant, Bob Hayes. The vast majority of the others, including Jerry Rice, Michael Irvin, Steve Largent and Chris Carter, etc. would have a hard time breaking 4.6.

In terms of historical productivity, among the Top 25 wide receivers in career receptions, only Marvin Harrison (No. 2) and Steve Smith (No. 13) ever clocked below 4.4. What’s more, even in today’s game, consider the top wide receivers. Based on numbers over the past couple of seasons, you could make a strong case it includes Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, DeAndre Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall and Demaryius Thomas. In that group, only Jones is a 4.3 guy.

Yet it’s easy to rattle off dozens of guys who blazed sub-4.4 times prior to the draft, dramatically shot up draft boards, then never came close to fulfilling their potential. In fact, most of them became major disappointments. Alexander Wright, R. Jay Soward, Troy Williamson and Donte Stallworth come to mind, to name just a few.

To test the theory that speed is overrated, consider the last 20 years of official combine 40 times for receivers. Let’s begin with players who’ve been in the league for at least three seasons, figuring that by that time you pretty much know who can and cannot play. For our purposes, “burners” are receivers with a 40 time below 4.4.

Over the 20-year span, from 1994-2013, a whopping 71 wide receivers recorded an official combine 40 time lower than 4.4. Of that group, just five made a Pro Bowl. Leading the group are Julio Jones and Calvin Johnson, both Hall of Fame talents with multiple selections. DeSean Jackson is a three-time Pro Bowler while Mike Wallace and Javon Walker each made just one appearance.

Below is a list of all 71 WRs to clock a sub-4.40 during a 20-year stretch:

Round Name Team Time
2013
1 (8) Austin, Tavon Rams 4.34
3 (78) Goodwin, Marquise Bills 4.27
4 (102) Boyce, Josh Patriots 4.38
6 (174) Swope, Ryan Cardinals 4.34
2012
1 (30) Jenkins, A.J. 49ers 4.37
2 (43) Hill, Stephen Jets 4.3
3 (69) Graham, T.J. Bills 4.35
4 (96) Givens, Chris Rams 4.37
4 (100) Benjamin, Travis Browns 4.32
4 (107) Wylie, Devon Chiefs 4.37
6 (198) Streeter, Tommy Baltimore 4.34
Undrafted Owusu, Chris 4.31
2011
1 (6) Jones, Julio Falcons 4.34
4 (111) Gates, Edmond Dolphins 4.31
Undrafted Lockette, Ricardo 4.34
2010
4 (107) Easley, Marcus Bills 4.39
4(108) Ford, Jacoby Raiders 4.22
6 (197) Holliday, Trindon Texans 4.21
Undrafted Banks, Brandon 4.39
2009
1 (7) Heyward-Bey, Darius Raiders 4.25
1 (22) Harvin, Percy Vikings 4.39
3 (84) Wallace, Mike Steelers 4.28
3 (91) Butler, Deon Seahawks 4.31
4 (107) Thomas, Mike Jaguars 4.3
4 (124) Murphy, Louis Raiders 4.32
5 (140) Knox, Johnny Bears 4.29
5 (141) McKinley, Kenny Broncos 4.37
7 (224) Byrd, Demetrius Chargers 4.35
7 (253) Underwood, Tiquan Jaguars 4.31
Undrafted Ogletree, Kevin 4.36
2008
2 (42) Royal, Eddie Broncos 4.39
2 (49) Jackson, DeSean Eagles 4.38
2 (58) Jackson, Dexter Bucs 4.33
3 (97) Caldwell, Andre Bengals 4.35
4 (105) Franklin, Will Chiefs 4.37
4 (125) Shields, Arman Raiders 4.37
2007
1 (2) Johnson, Calvin Lions 4.35
1 (27) Meacham, Robert Saints 4.39
3 (74) Figurs, Yamon Ravens 4.3
3 (75) Robinson, Laurent Falcons 4.38
3 (76) Hill, Jason 49ers 4.32
3 (79) Walker, Mike Jaguars 4.35
5 (146) Allison, Aundrae Vikings 4.39
5 (157) Clowney, David Packers 4.36
2006
2 (36) Jackson, Chad Patriots 4.32
3 (95) Reid, Willie Steelers 4.37
7 (233) Aromashodu, Devin Dolphins 4.35
2005
1 (7) Williamson, Troy Vikings 4.38
3 (68) Roby, Courtney Titans 4.36
4 (114) Mathis, Jerome Texans 4.32
2004
4 (99) Francis, Carlos Raiders 4.31
4 (105) Parker, Samie Chiefs 4.34
6 (171) Luke, Triandos Broncos 4.33
2003
1 (17) Johnson, Bryant Cardinals 4.38
2 (45) Johnson, Bethel Texas A&M 4.3
2 (60) Calico, Tyrone Mid Tenn St. 4.27
2002
1 (20) Walker, Javon Packers 4.32
2 (46) Carter, Tim Giants 4.34
2 (47) Davis, Andre Browns 4.36
7 (254) Lockett, Andre Bucs 4.27
2001
3 (74) Smith, Steve Panthers 4.38
5 (162) Carter, Jonathan Giants 4.35
6 (190) Kasper, Kevin Broncos 4.38
7 (208) Capel, John Bears 4.37
7 (214) Germany, Reggie Bills 4.37
7 (218) Taylor, Chris Steelers 4.31
2000
1 (29) Soward, R. Jay Jaguars 4.34
3 (70) Cole, Chris Broncos 4.34
1999
None
1998
2 (42) Johnson, Pat Ravens 4.39
1997
1 (15) Green, Yatil Dolphins 4.38
1996
None
1995
None
1994
3 (70) Coleman, Andre Chargers 4.39

 

As you can see, there seems to be absolutely no correlation between blazing 40 times and wide receiver success in the NFL. I would venture to guess that, unless you are a true aficionado, you likely won’t remember the vast majority of these guys.

Who wasn’t on the list? Guys such as Terrell Owens (4.63), Anquan Boldin (4.75), Isaac Bruce (4.53) and Antonio Brown (4.54), to name a few.

So, next spring, when the media freaks out about the receiver who blazes a 4.31 in Indianapolis and proclaims him to be “shooting up the draft boards,” ask yourself, “why?”

Guest Columnist: Take Value Pts With a Grain of Salt

26 Tuesday Apr 2016

Posted by itlneil in Uncategorized

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NFL draft, Troy Brown

Earlier this month, I had lunch with my former business partner, Troy, and posted here about it. He thinks a lot about the draft and closely follows the process as well as the prospects. For that reason, when he took issue with one of my posts last week, I asked him to develop his opinion so I could publish it here. He makes some great points.

I’ll turn it over to Troy.


So much is made of the NFL Draft value points chart created more than a quarter century ago by former Cowboys head coach Jimmy Johnson. It’s natural this time of year — especially with the recent blockbusters involving a bundle of picks for the No. 1 and 2 overall selections.

While a fun exercise in theory, my argument is that the chart is completely irrelevant for teams without a franchise QB for this simple reason: The league, more than ever, is comprised of “haves” and “have-nots.” Those with a clear-cut, long-term guy under center will be in the mix each year. And those without? Their only chance is that stars align for their team in a one-off season.

Therefore, instead of looking at a complex points chart, the have-nots should be doing whatever’s necessary to put themselves in position to get their long-term solution at QB because, long term, the bundle of draft picks (and “points”) you give up are irrelevant.

Looking back at its origin, the points system was useful for Johnson at the time. He was gift-wrapped Troy Aikman and soon acquired a boatload of picks from Minnesota in the Herschel Walker deal. So it made sense to use metrics to gain valuable assets to surround the future Hall of Fame QB and a pretty barren roster. I would even argue that the point system can be valuable today for teams such as Green Bay and Indianapolis that are trying to build talent around their franchise QB.

However, the major flaw in a rigid point system is that all the slotted picks are not created equal. For example, under the point chart, the No. 1 overall pick is worth 3,000 points, with No. 2 being 2,600, No. 3 at 2,200, and so on.

Look at recent history. In 2011 and 2012, the first picks were Cam Newton and Andrew Luck. In 2013-2014, they were Eric Fisher and Jadeveon Clowney. Anyone think those picks should be looked at equally, as they are by the points chart?

Fisher, Clowney and other non-QB top picks are nice prospects, but they are not winning you games week-in, week-out. QBs like Luck and Newton can single-handedly win games and keep their respective teams in the playoff mix every year for decade. How can you put a point total on that?

For example, if prior to the 2012 draft, Cleveland, which picked No. 3, would have offered Indianapolis five No. 1 draft picks to move up just two spots, advocates of the value points chart would have jumped all over the deal. Those who follow the chart would argue that five No. 1 draft choices would far outweigh getting that single pick.

However, since a true franchise QB was involved, I would argue that giving up those picks would still be a great bargain for the Browns. With Luck as its franchise QB, the Browns would have almost certainly made a couple of playoffs appearances—or at least been in the mix each of the past four years. It could then focus on building around its young signal-caller with a clear direction for the next decade.

And the Colts, taking what the Browns offered, could have then selected (as the Browns actually did with its next five No. 1 picks) Trent Richardson, Barkevious Mingo, Justin Gilbert, Johnny Manziel and Danny Shelton. Guess what? If that had happened, four years later the Colts would still have no idea what direction it was going and no chance to compete each of the last four seasons … much like the Browns today.

Moving forward to what we’ve seen in the past couple of weeks, I’ve heard so many ‘NFL insiders’ say “the Rams gave up way too much” or “the Eagles could wreck their franchise for years if this trade doesn’t work out.” It’s all complete hogwash.

Just take a look at the most recent ‘blockbuster’ trade from 2012, involving the Rams and Redskins. Washington essentially gave up the Nos. 6 and 39 overall picks in 2012, No. 22 in 2013 and No. 2 overall pick in 2014.

People said the Redskins “mortgaged their future” on the prospects of Robert Griffin III. Well, obviously, he didn’t work out in Washington, as four years later he’s in Cleveland. Yet, since the trade, the Redskins have won the NFC East twice in the past four seasons—once with RGIII and once with Kurt Cousins— yet remain a have-not in the bigger picture in terms of being a real Super Bowl threat. The Redskins are essentially in the same boat they were before the trade.

On the flip side, we heard so much about how the Rams gouged the Redskins and setting themselves up as real contenders because of the haul of picks in the deal. Yet, after it was all said and done, the players they took with the Redskins’ picks were DT Michael Brockers, DC Janoris Jenkins, OH Isaiah Pead, OG Rokevious Watkins, IB Alec Ogletree, WO Stedman Bailey, OH Zac Stacy and OT Greg Robinson. And exactly how many wins have those guys contributed to over the past four years? Very few. The Rams basically remain in the same position they were before the blockbuster. A have-not. Both teams are still searching for that guy.

So, let’s bring the discussion back to last week’s deal between the Browns and Eagles. Who is the likely winner and loser?

To me, at least Philadelphia has the potential to be the big winner. Why? Because it put itself in a position to get a potential franchise QB and be a “have” franchise for a decade. Conversely, the Browns might very well build up quite a talented roster but it will remain a “have-not” without that special guy taking snaps.

Who knows if Jared Goff or Carson Wentz will be the man for his respective team? But I’ll always applaud a team that doesn’t have a franchise QB trying everything in its power to acquire one.

In a nutshell, I’m not saying acquiring a bunch of picks cannot be valuable assets. What I am saying is that in today’s NFL, when a potential franchise QB is involved, a ‘bunch of guys’ does not equal ‘The Guy.’

How The Draft Works: My Take

15 Friday Apr 2016

Posted by itlneil in ITL

≈ 1 Comment

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Troy Brown

On Wednesday, I had lunch with an old friend. Actually, he’s more than an old friend; he’s a former business partner. In fact, if it weren’t for this friend, Troy, there’s no way I’d be in the football business. We started a small print draft publication, Lone Star Football, in the late 90s, and to show you how long-ago-and-far-away it was, we didn’t even have a website. Anyway, though it never took off, from its ashes sprung Inside the League. I wouldn’t have had the guts to start ITL if it weren’t for Lone Star Football, so for that, I’ll always tip my cap to Troy.

Anyway, we try to have lunch once a year at a Houston-area restaurant, and conversation always turns to the draft. In the course of Wednesday’s conversation, I told him that I had started ITL with the intention of learning exactly how and why teams drafted the way they do. Fourteen years later, I’m far from accomplishing that goal. However, there are three things I’ve learned. Or at least think I’ve learned. Here they are:

  • Most teams see the first four rounds as the time they have to take players they love and reasonably expect to start in their first year-and-a-half of play. These guys have to make the team and excel. The first four rounds are, for the most part, a very risk-averse time for most teams, so of the 120-150 players they rate as draftable, the first four picks will most certainly come from this group.
  • After the first four rounds, it’s lottery time. That’s when teams are mostly going to do one of two things. They’re either going to take a guy they thought was a sure Top-120 guy (even though they may wonder why he’s fallen so far) or they’re going to take a guy whose athleticism they’ve fallen in love with despite his lack of football experience, or acumen, or both. This is especially true of rounds 6 and 7. This tends to be where you see some real workout warriors picked. The last three picks are seen as expendable, for the most part. Why? Simple. It’s because no GM ever got fired because of the guy he picked, or didn’t pick, in the fifth round.
  • Teams are very, very, very sensitive to what other teams think. By now, you’ve probably seen the text Texans scout Rob Kisiel accidentally sent. Though it’s gotten way more play than it deserves – hasn’t everyone sent a misplaced text by now? – the substance of the text is similar to what most scouts send, i.e., brief, polite conversation followed by inquiries into who else has expressed interest. If you read Thursday’s post on our blog, you know several teams reached out to Texas Tech speed demon Jakeem Grant over the last month, wanting to know who else was reaching out to him. Before I got into this business, I thought all NFL teams intuitively knew the players inside and out, regardless of what others thought, and didn’t really care about other teams’ favorites. Having been doing this for almost two decades now, I know that isn’t the case.

 

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