As thunder clouds gather on the college football horizon, the fall season seems to be in growing jeopardy. One option seems to be moving play into the spring, when presumably players, coaches and schools would find a safer playing field. If it happens,  it’s almost a certainty a large number of top players will choose not to play and to move straight to the NFL Draft, presuming it remains an April 2021 affair.

All of which begs this question: how many elite prospects, from seniors to redshirt sophomores, could reasonably skip their last seasons of play without damaging their respective draft statuses? 

We asked scouts, agents and all-star game directors that we respect across the game. These are the answers we got.

• “I would expect 10-20 guys. I think there will absolutely be some of the top guys. I think agents are going to get in their ear too. . . I think some will absolutely opt out, but there is still going to be pressure from teammates to play the season and rep the program. It’ll be interesting.”
• “Probably 40 or so. Damn good players, locks to go no later than Round 2 if they’ve already played their last down. They’ve already played their last game.”
• “15-20.”
• “Maybe 20-30. But there will be hundreds who believe that they’ll be impacted and decide to jump.” 
• “Heading into the season, I would think it would be closer to 30 kids who have done enough to solidify their draft position off their body of work, but the vast majority of guys need additional verification or opportunity to rise. The preseason lists are full of hyped seniors who go on to become low free agents after being exposed, as a warning.”

• “Too many unanswerable questions right now. SEC is a mess and not even going to visit on protocol again until (July 28), I hear. Too many “hot spots” around the country to make general rules, and regular kids not even back on campus yet, if they’ll be allowed at all!”

The consensus seems to be 20-30 players, i.e., most of the first round. Of course, trying to guess how many players in total will opt out is almost impossible, and could easily range into the hundreds.

Give us your best guess on Twitter, and later today, find out who we think the 20-30 players are that might be able to go from the 2019 season to the 2021 draft with no ill effects. It will be in today’s Friday Wrap, and you can register for it here.

As you may know, this week was ITL Agent Week, and we had four speakers talk to 30-plus agents on the nuances of how to build a scouting network, how to look at players, how to survive in the business without a bottomless bank account and plenty more. It wasn’t a good week — it was a great week. Here’s a tiny taste of what our participants heard this week.

Priority Sports’ Mike McCartney on why he became an agent: “In 1998, I got hired by the Eagles as the director of pro personnel, and I was basically Tom Modrak’s right-hand man. We went from 3-13 to two games from the Super Bowl while I was there. Anyway, we got beat by the Giants in 2001, and as I drove across New Jersey after that game, I took inventory of my life. I would never recommend taking inventory of your life after a tough loss, and it hit me like a ton of bricks that in 20 years I’d be asking who raised my boys. I prayed long and hard after that, and I had one of 32 jobs director jobs in world, and I was on target to be GM, but wanted to find balance in my life and be there for my children. So I decided to be an agent. I knew every agent, and I knew who the guys were that worked for their players and those who wouldn’t. I pursued Priority Sports. I never wanted to compromise my integrity, and I wanted someone with an excellent reputation, and someone with resources. It takes a lot (of money) to get guys ready for the draft. Anyway, I pursued Priority, and now I’m going into my 20^th year, and my 29^th in the NFL. I wouldn’t trade my experience. I mean, I’ve been able to raise my kids.”

Former Bears GM Jerry Angelo on finding sleepers hiding in plain sight: “There are a lot of prospects at those big schools that fall through the cracks because the scout is spending his time on high-profile players. When at Ohio State, that’s 15-16 players, and scouts are doing juniors and seniors, and it’s impossible to do it A-Z. I used to use this example with my scouts. When Ricky Williams was at Texas, and he won the Heisman, they had another running back who fell into undrafted free agency, Priest Holmes. Texas was a really good team then, but there had to be a time when they rested Ricky, and Priest must have had game tape, but when he was out of the game, the scouts quit looking at running backs. Priest Holmes was an outstanding back, and I told my scouts, at some point, there was film. You’re going to find players at those big schools. That’s’ where our sleepers come from today.”

Former Titans scout Blake Beddingfield on the changing parameters for quarterbacks: “At quarterback, the size traits are going away. You have Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, obviously Drew Brees are around 6-feet tall, so height is not as important as it used to be. Decision-making and accuracy are, and we’re talking about accuracy, not just completion percentage. Anything from plus-1 under, anything in the flats, they take that out and readjust their completion percentages, because they should be able to make those passes. It’s the other passes that are important, so when you’re looking at a player who throws a lot in the horizontal game, you take those stats away and look at plus-2 and better. He has to be smart, and has to be able to process all the info when the ball is snapped. These are important traits. Arm strength is important, but not the sole indicator of a QB. Accuracy and decision-making are the keys.”

HOF Player Representatives’ Greg Linton on what he told players during his early days when he still had a 9-to-5 job: “You have to know the player. I tell them, ‘you’re a grown-ass man. Do you need your hand held 24 hours a day? My job is to help you. I don’t need to hold your hand 24 hours per day. When you get to the team, you’re going to have a lot of free time, and no one is going to hold your hand. I’m gonna teach you to be a grown man.”

If you’re in the agent business, and you have any questions about how to succeed, I hope you’ll join us next year. It was a special week. We’ll discuss it more in today’s Friday Wrap. You can register for it here.

If you read our weekly Friday Wrap, which comes out this evening, you know we had a Zoom professional development session Wednesday with former NFL PR man Fitz Ollison, who’s run the media side for the Saints, Dolphins, Lions and Broncos as well as the Alliance of American Football during its brief run.

Fitz was brilliant, and he spoke to a handful of college directors and scouts about the value of having a good director of communications that you can really rely on as GM. I wish we could have had him on for a full week of hour-long sessions, but that would have been selfish. Instead, here are a few gems from the two hours he spent with us this week:

• “National (media personalities) are really popular. They have 100,000 Twitter followers, they show up on TV and on Instagram, they are high-profile and get paid a lot of money, and owners listen to these guys. At owners meetings, they bring in national guys and owners like to talk to them. Most owners get their info from owners, and vice versa. (Game) broadcasters benefit (scouts and executives) the most. They understand the game and they know who’s good and bad. They will usually get consulted during the head coach and GM searches.”
• “PR has been a throwaway in the past. It’s not anymore. It’s becoming a vitally important aspect because everything you say and do and every interaction is going to be recorded or reported. You’re a celebrity when you become a personnel guy.”
• “You want a grenade-jumper, someone who is loyal to you. You gotta have a guy you can trust who can tell you when you screwed up. . . A lot of owners, I’ve been in rooms where the owner said, ‘I like my (PR) guy. You’ll learn to like him.’ But if he doesn’t have your back, 100 percent, something could get through. . . If there’s a guy who can help you in terms of media and PR, being on your staff, a loyal guy, get him any way you can.”
• “A lot of people don’t understand the mentality of a billionaire. They don’t deal in the everyday nuances that we deal in. They don’t deal in wants and needs. NFL owners deal in ‘give me’s and ‘get me’s. ‘Give me this’ and ‘get me that.’ And they don’t care. In the grand scheme, for 95 percent of them, they made their money not by being a nice guy. These guys are ruthless businessmen.”
• “When you’re on the road, look at the news of the day and how you would answer the questions that pertain to that. I always feel it’s a disservice that, the moment you become GM, they want to throw you in front of the media. You have to practice it. How would you handle it? Always use the opportunity for other people’s news to benefit your own news. Whatever you do, just be reminded that in this day and age, it lasts forever.”

We’ll talk more about Fitz’s work with us in today’s Friday Wrap. Make sure to register for it if you haven’t already.

This summer, we at Inside the League have focused greatly on bringing leading industry voices to online platforms in order to interface with active NFL scouts, agents and executives. We’ve found it to be the best way to connect people in the era of social distancing.

At the same time, there’s nothing like sitting across the table from someone, and we’ve done a little breaking of bread with our friends in the industry, as well. Between Zoom sessions and power lunches, we’ve learned quite a bit about the industry. Here are a few lessons learned this summer, especially as they relate to character evaluation in the draft process.

• If the pro liaison loves a kid, maybe you shouldn’t: The pro liaison tends to be the guy who tells scouts the party line. Normally, he’s the one who’s going to give you the info a head coach would almost say in a press conference setting. In other words, just the facts, presented with a smile and maybe a positive spin. The players whose attitudes are best are the ones who’ll be bragged on in meetings with pro liaisons. To get the unedited version on a player, a scout typically has to speak to a coach on staff that he knows, or the strength coach. Strength coaches are typically less political.
• A kid without a father in the home has to be judged differently from one who doesn’t: A young man who grew up with a father in the home is more likely to understand that a coach screaming at him still loves him. Maybe his father ripped him for not taking out the garbage or for mowing but not edging — he knows his father is still gonna be there at dinnertime asking him about his day, making sure he’s got what he needs, hugging him at bedtime, etc. A young man without a father in the home is more likely to see a coach berating him as someone seeking a confrontation. He’ll either tune out or, in other cases, answer with his fists.
• Houston, Atlanta and Miami are the party cities: You better know what you have with a kid who is drafted by the Falcons, Dolphins and, yes, Texans. These are perceived as the cities where you can really get yourself in trouble with women, alcohol and drugs, or all three. Give a kid money and a lot of free time, and he’s liable to get over his skis, quickly. Or at least that’s the reputation.
• There’s a lot of nuance to a young man’s background aside from his legal history: The example I was given was of a kid who was raised in Mississippi, a state with a low-performing educational system. If he came out of Oxford, he’s more likely to have a stable upbringing and less trouble with schooling and structure. If he is from Jackson, it depends on whether he was in private school or public school. Public school kids saw things that kids in private schools didn’t. The geographical regions of the state are also very telling. This is true of several states, but Mississippi is one place where the hometown can be very indicative of what kind of kid he is.
• Failing a drug test means different things at different schools: For example, at LSU, after your first failure you are given certain terms, and if you meet those, you are given a clean state. In other words, you are back at zero. After failure No. 2, you are given a chance to go to rehab, and if you take that option (which is voluntary), you are treated differently from someone who doesn’t. Because schools like LSU and Texas have traditionally been very patient with those who have a problem with marijuana, kids who are kicked out for their drug problems are valued very differently from those schools who might have a zero tolerance policy.

If we’ve just whet your appetite, we encourage you to register for our Friday Wrap, in which we discuss all manner of industry-related topics each week. This week, we’ll focus on the Zoom sessions with industry professionals that we’ve already hosted as well as what’s to come later this summer. Here’s a peek at last week’s edition.

Last night, we wrapped up our first-ever ITL GM Academy, and it was a smashing success. For one night each, we had a former NFL GM talk to several young risers in the NFL scouting industry, most of them directors of college scouting, on how to get and excel in the job of NFL general manager.

I can’t say enough about how open and transparent each of our GMs — Tim Ruskell (Seahawks) on Monday, Jerry Angelo (Bears) on Tuesday, Doug Whaley (Bills) Wednesday and Billy Devaney (Rams) on Thursday — was this week. They told stories that I wish I could tell here. “The week exceeded all expectations!,”  said one of the participants.

Here are a few nuggets from this week’s speakers.

On owners (former Rams GM Billy Devaney): “You get the job, you do need to develop a relationship with the owner. He’s gonna want access to you, but it’s gotta be a two-way street. If there’s a key injury or you get a chance to make a big trade, and your guy is on some yacht in southern France, you have to have the ability to have access to him. Set up a time every week to meet with him. I mean, over-communicate early with the guy. You want to keep reassuring him that you’re the right guy.

“There’s two kinds of owners: hands-on and absentee. I’ve seen it both ways. Don’t let hands-on owners be a negative. It’s a pain in the ass sometimes, but believe me, the positives far outweigh the negatives.”

On the value of networking (former Bills GM Doug Whaley): “The only reason I got the chance in Buffalo was, in ‘05-’06, the league had a masters program at Stanford and it was a week-long – I got a master’s from Stanford! — and had meetings all day, then at night they would break us up into five-man groups and have us work together. We had 3-4 questions to work on every night. I wondered, why are all of us doing the same questions? Why not all do one question, then we all talk about it afterward? And (Bills executive) Russ Brandon loved that, so when Buddy (Nix) became the GM, Brandon was really promoting me because of my work with Doug at the Stanford program.” Four years later, in 2010, Whaley was hired as the Assistant GM in Buffalo, and took over for Nix as GM in 2013.

On your most crucial hires (former Bears GM Jerry Angelo): “What do you do to offset your weakness, especially if it’s the cap? . . . The Bears let me hire a cap guy, and I hired (former agent) Cliff Stein. He was in my network. Intelligent and hard-working. I interviewed guys with a better resume, but I had a gut feeling on him.

“I wish my draft picks went as well as that hire. But you have to identify someone who is good with the cap.”

On working with your head coach (former Seahawks GM Tim Ruskell): “I had all the control, and it was an awesome responsibility. I didn’t take advantage of that. I always worked collaboratively with my head coach, and I feel you have to do that.”

If this kind of thing intrigues you, make sure you sign up for our Friday Wrap, which comes out this evening. We’ll have more about our work this week with tomorrow’s GMs in this evening’s edition. We’ll also talk about the next wave of GM candidates as told to us by people across the game. Here’s last week’s edition. I hope you’ll check it out.

This week, I’ve been talking to several of my friends in the industry about the best GM candidates in the game. My goal was (and is) to put together a list that isn’t agent- and/or media-driven. In other words, I don’t want the guys that are photogenic and have good bloodlines, per se, or simply the “next up” guys from winning organizations. I’m looking for guys who are less about politics and more about grinding. At least, that’s my aim.

Here are a few thoughts gathered from talking to people this week.

• It was really, really hard to get a consensus. I started off wanting a list of 10 candidates, but struggled to get 5-6 that were on several lists. I attribute that to the nature of the business. Most scouts tend to work in one or two organizations, so they don’t get to see many people truly work. In addition, the very nature of the business lends itself to secrecy, so it’s easy to get in a silo and stay there.
• As a matter of fact, I had a lot of friends who were very careful about even giving their opinion on GM possibilities. No one wants their bosses to even think in terms of advancement. Next week, we’ll be hosting the ITL GM Academy with four ex-GMs, and similarly, our attendees don’t want anyone to know they are trying to grow and develop themselves, which to me is kinda crazy. The “keep your head down and grind” philosophy is alive and well.
• As I was compiling the list, one thing came through loud and clear: when a scout would give me a name, he’d almost always talk about how much he likes the guy, how he has a great personality. We’ve all heard about how fiery and tough “Battlin” Bill Polian, one of the truly great GMs in the game, was during his career. I think today’s scouts and executives want to work with someone they can relate to, rather than be subservient to.
• I worked hard to get perspectives from guys on the pro side, but most of them recommended guys with strong college backgrounds. It’s interesting. I guess scouts  will always see the draft as the wellspring of team-building.
• On that topic, one scout I trust opened my eyes to something I’d seen, but never really noticed. When you sift through the names of college and pro scouting directors, it’s striking how many more pro directors are black than on the college side. It’s easy to see why — pro directors have to be a bit more persuasive, almost have a recruiting side to them. To me, this is a clear focus of attention as we try to remove obstacles in the path to the GM seat for minority candidates. I’ve seen a lot more movement toward the pro side for scouts with college backgrounds; maybe this will help break down these walls.
• I’m sure tomorrow’s list will be controversial because we’ll have a few outside-the-box names, and won’t have some of the names you typically see on these lists. Please re-read this if you take issue with tomorrow’s newsletter: JUST BECAUSE A NAME ISN’T ON OUR LIST TOMORROW DOESN’T MEAN HE’S NOT A GREAT CANDIDATE. I’m just trying to present the people rank-and-file scouts and executives that I speak to know and trust. It’s one snapshot of many.

Anyway, we’ll have 6-7 guys whose names you’ll probably know if you read this blog regularly in tomorrow’s Friday Wrap, though they may differ greatly from the names you most often see. I hope it will be fun and provocative. Make sure you don’t miss it by registering here.

The bulk of the work done evaluating players for the NFL Draft is done by area scouts, the foot soldiers of the profession. At Inside the League, we spend a lot of time telling their stories and trying to make their jobs a little easier with our salary survey, helping out with pro days in March, and anything else.

Normally, May is when scouts get hired and fired. Obviously, this has not been a normal May, so rather than covering who’s coming and going, this week, we decided to take a long look at our Scouting Changes Grids from 2015-2019 to see where scouts are coming from, as well as what’s happening to the people who hold that title.

The perception is that older, more seasoned evaluators are no longer en vogue, and there’s a definite shelf life for old-school college scouts. At the same time, fresh-faced youngsters are more hirable than ever. But what do the numbers say?

We counted 90 NFL personnel professionals who took a job as area scout between 2015 and 2019 (college side only, not pro scout). Some ascended to the position from lower jobs. Some were area scouts who moved laterally to other teams, or who changed areas. Some had previously held more senior jobs and went back on the road simply to get back into the league. Here’s what we found.

• For 71 of the 90, achieving area scout was a clear promotion.
• Of the 71, almost half (31) were promoted from scouting assistant, which has become the most common way teams hire college evaluators.
• Eighteen of the 70 were combine scouts (BLESTO or NFS), probably the second-most common route.
• Eleven were in pro roles or assisted on both the pro and college side.
• Four other scouts moved over from the pro side. All four were young scouts who were most likely being promoted, though it’s unclear if they received a bump in pay. Either way, probably good news for young scouts.
• Three more came from non-NFL scouting services, though it’s important to note that two of the three had extensive pro football backgrounds and weren’t plucked capriciously from #DraftTwitter.
• Another two hopped directly from other leagues (the CFL and Arena League) into area roles.
• One was a college scouting coordinator who was sent on the road.
• One moved over from the coaching side.

Another note: this is a hiring trend that has been sustained over the last five years. At least 10 new area scouts per year have been hired from within every year since 2015 (not counting this year, of course). In 2017, 22 (!) were elevated from scouting assistant and combine scout roles.

Of course, it wasn’t all good news for new area scouts. We identified 17 of the 90 who were taking a step down from national scout or a director-level position, presumably after a period of unemployment. Bottom line, the overwhelming majority of new area scout hires (81 percent) were people with limited experience who were promoted from within.

Two others didn’t fit any specific category and were hard to quantify.

We also counted 148 area scouts over the same time period (2015-2019) who experienced a change in job status. The news for these experienced evaluators was not as positive. We go into detail on how many received a promotion, mostly stayed static, or were pushed out of the business in the last five years in today’s Friday Wrap.

You can register for it here. It comes out this evening (6:30 p.m. CT), and if you’re interested in being an NFL scout, or you are one already, we recommend you give it a look.

This week, we looked at all the players signed with agents for the 2020 NFL Draft, the number drafted and the total of undrafted free agents, all sorted by position. It’s here (pay link, sorry).

We’ve done this for the past six years, and it provides an interesting snapshot of the positions most in demand by NFL teams. If you’re just passing through for a look at the top mock drafts or a ranking of NFL GMs, I apologize in advance. Today is for agents, active and aspiring. I think it gives insights into who they should be recruiting in the modern game.

• As usual, there were more wide receivers signed by agents (244) than any other position. It stands to reason; receivers are plentiful as well as popular in a pro game that’s committed to the pass. What’s more, their numbers are easy to track. On the other hand, receivers’ draft rate is annually around 10 percent, one of the lowest “hit rates” of all the positions. This year’s draft rate was highest ever at just under 15 percent, owing to the talent in the class, though the total number of signees was well below recent classes.
• More on wide receivers: In the six years we’ve been tracking the numbers, this year’s total number of pass-catchers signed to SRAs is the lowest ever. The high-water mark? It was 2016, when 313 receivers signed with agents. We may never see that total again.
• A cornerback’s plight is very similar to a wide receiver’s, i.e., lots and lots of them sign with agents, but opportunities are limited. Agents signed 190 corners, but only 28 were drafted and 53 signed as undrafted free agents. In total, 109 cornerbacks (more than half of all who were signed) are on the street mere weeks after draft day. In short, if you’re an agent and you want to maximize your chances on draft weekend, focus on the big slow guys and less on the sleek, sexy guys.
• Though it’s not sexy, our numbers show, again, that it all starts up front. At only four positions — tight end, guard, tackle and defensive tackle — did better than half of all players signed to standard representation agreements get either drafted or signed as undrafted free agents.
• Similarly, only four positions — center, guard, tackle and outside linebacker — saw more than 20 percent of all signees selected in the draft. The offensive line isn’t sexy, but if you’re an agent, that’s where the money is.
• On the other hand, the most popular position immediately following the draft is tight end. A higher percentage of tight ends — just under 39 percent — signed post-draft than did players at any other position. Only two other positions (fullbacks and defensive tackles) signed UDFA contracts at a rate north of 30 percent.
• it was a tough year to go undrafted. This year, 421 players signed UDFA deals. Last year, 497 signed, while another 522 players attended at least one rookie mini-camp on a tryout basis. With no rookie mini-camps this year, it doesn’t look like any players will get tryout opportunities this year.

To look at all the numbers this year (and since 2015), click here. For a review of what happened in the football business this week, click here. Thank you, as always, for reading.

In the last week, two seasoned area scouts have been non-renewed by their NFL teams. When I was new to the game, this used to puzzle me — why would you remove seasoned evaluators? Now that I’ve watched hiring practices for about a decade, it makes a lot more sense.

I’ve spent most of Thursday texting with several scouts and discussing the ‘brain drain’ in NFL scouting. This time of year, especially, I get asked about how you get (and keep) a job as an NFL scout. I’ll take a few of the texts I’ve received today and expand on them in an attempt to illustrate how modern teams hire and fire.

• “Teams are hiring their buddies and using scout money on director positions. Creating spots but not hiring the workers.” — It’s a great point. If you want to surround yourself with people you trust, but the owner won’t increase your budget, you hire less-seasoned scouts. This has been a rising trend across the business for at least the last 2-3 years. It’s mainly because decision-making has become increasingly centralized while “metrics” for scouts are limited at best. When a scout is fired, you rarely hear from others that he was a bad scout (or even a good one). Very hard to pin accountability on any one scout, so reasons for dismissal are similarly elusive.
• “Look at some of the staffs. Titans have two directors of player personnel. . . Buffalo has a director and assistant director at every position and a assistant GM.   Seattle has two directors of player personnel.  Miami has an asst GM and two personnel directors.” — I never thought about this before, but it makes a lot of sense. We’re seeing a lot of duplication of position in league front offices right now while we’re simultaneously seeing some pretty nebulous titles, like “executive scout” or “senior advisor.” It makes for a lot of chiefs and a limited number of Indians.
• “I also think that guys can be slow to change at times and feel they have tenure in certain situations when they don’t and are making top dollar.” — This is another good point, and one that you don’t often hear from scouts. It’s the other side of the “why fire all the experienced scouts?” argument. Scouts often become entitled, especially after they have several years under their belts.
• “. . . A scout’s presence at a school has to (include being) a good guest, too.” — I think this is as important as it’s ever been. As college head coaches’ salaries increase and the pressure to win grows higher than ever, there’s less transparency and sometimes less of an open-door policy for scouts. I hear often from college personnel directors and recruiting staffers that they’d love to accommodate scouts, but at the end of the day, that doesn’t keep them employed. I get it.

We’ll talk more about NFL scouting and what’s happening in the NFL evaluation community in the Friday Wrap, which comes out at 6:30 p.m. CT tomorrow. If you haven’t registered for it already, I’d love it if you did, and I think you would, too.