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Weekly Gridiron Tech Report with Ric Serritella

07 Thursday Sep 2017

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Ric Serritella

If it seems as if a day doesn’t go by without news of a new football livestream offering, you’re right. With media entities such as Twitter and Facebook now over a decade old, the millennial generation has become accustomed to watching football online, which means increased revenue opportunities for the NFL and more smiles on owner’s faces.

With that in mind, here are some items of interest from NFL Draft Bible’s Ric Serritella, especially to those people seeking to find a niche in the game.

Six-second ads: During the offseason, the NFL announced its intention to eliminate the ‘double-up’ commercial breaks. If you’re not familiar with that term, it’s when broadcast networks decide to go to commercial break following a touchdown, then again following the kickoff. These ‘double ups’ have helped the league generate about $3.5 billion for the five networks carrying their broadcasts (CBS, Fox, ESPN, NBC and NFL Network). On the other hand, they’ve irritated fans and made for longer games at a time when attention spans are getting shorter.

With the growing influence of social media, the average user’s attention span has drastically decreased. According to a recent Microsoft study, the average attention span is now eight seconds, down from 12 in 2000, which would make it shorter than a goldfish.

So what’s the answer? Six-second ads. Fox is the first to announce this offering. Ads will debut on America’s Game of the Week and be deployed in a variety of forms, including a shorter commercial load or in-game execution, designed to “most seamlessly integrate with each type of sport.”

C-USA goes with Flo: Whether you’re away from home, out of market or on the go, the recent increase of online livestream channels has made it easier to keep up with every college football team. The latest to enter the arena is FloSports, which has signed an agreement to broadcast Conference USA games.

The deal includes exclusive live and on-demand coverage of three regular-season games featuring Charlotte, Western Kentucky, Eastern Kentucky, Louisiana Tech and Rice. Though lacking the national exposure of the Power Five conferences, most of which own their own network, Conference USA is leading the charge as an early adaptor to Over-The-Top (OTT) content. They also struck a deal with Stadium, in addition to beIN SPORTS, which makes its 2017 Conference USA debut Saturday with FIU’s home opener against Alcorn State, the first of 10 Saturday evening games on the network.

Though NFL broadcast networks generated a bundle in ad sales, the biggest money-maker for NFL owners comes from TV deals. Last year, the league earned $7.8 billion in TV broadcast rights. That means each NFL team earned $244 million from broadcast deals before the season began.

NFL expands social networking: As the league continues to turn toward livestream online network deals, a recent shareholder report by Twitter signals that an increasing NFL presence on social media is arriving faster than we ever imagined. According to the report, last year’s Thursday Night Football (TNF) livestream package drew an average of 3.5 million unique viewers per game, with 55 percent under the age of 25, an indication of the strong demographic metrics most advertisers covet.

The success was so great that Twitter lost out on the TNF package to Amazon this year, which paid $50 million for the rights to the package, five times more than what Twitter paid the year before. However, Twitter managed to keep skin in the game by agreeing to a multi-year deal with the league to provide uniquely packaged official NFL video.

 

Checking Out New Tech on the Gridiron

01 Friday Sep 2017

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NFL Draft Bible, Ric Serritella

Courtesy of NFLDraftBible’s Ric Serritella, here are a couple of notes related to new technology and innovations that are being used by NFL and college teams and their fans.

QBs meet VR: As virtual reality continues to trickle into mainstream sports and figures out its identity, behind the scenes, it has become a great learning tool for quarterbacks. Since the new NFL collecting bargaining agreement in 2011, the difficulty for quarterbacks who want to develop during the offseason has increased. So how do some teams overcompensate? With virtual reality.

Roughly 25% of the league subscribes to STRVR technology, which allows players to have the ability to put on a headset and instantly have a 360-degree view of the field. The extra mental reps allow them to break down different coverages and blitzes without having to put on a helmet. Such technology is even being introduced at premier combine prep facilities, such as IMG Football in Bradenton, Fla.

“It’s a new tool, there’s probably seven or eight teams using it [VR],” said Bears head coach John Fox to reporters last month. “With our newness at quarterback, whether it’s Mitchell [Trubisky], Mark [Sanchez] or Mike [Glennon] it’s just getting reps that other guys don’t.”

At the GeekWire Sports Tech Summit in June, San Francisco 49ers president Al Guido spoke to the technology’s importance. “How do you reduce the hits but yet not reduce the amount of time someone can practice their craft? So knowing someone can put a VR machine on and get real, live, what in football we call ‘reps,’ without taking those hits, was, we thought, advantageous,” he said.

One of the most impressive players during the preseason has been 49ers rookie quarterback C.J. Beathard, who swears by the new VR technology and says he reviews over 1,000+ players during a single week using the headsets.

“You only get limited reps in practice, but you’re able to watch through virtual reality, essentially every rep in practice – all of Brian [Hoyer]’s and Matt [Barkley]’s and go back and watch mine, and kind of play things out in your head as you watch practice,” Beathard told NBC Sports Bay Area.

SOCIAL MEDIA INVADING THE LIVE-STREAM MARKET

With the evolution of how we digest media, the live-streaming network Stadium is out to meet consumer demand for more live-stream sporting events on social media.

In consecutive days, they announced a partnership with both Facebook and Twitter to stream exclusive broadcasts of college football games. The move creates tremendous new opportunity for online advertising revenue, while shaping the course of the live-stream broadcast industry.

Stadium will carry a 15-game lineup with nine Conference USA match-ups and six games from the Mountain West Conference. Custom-produced broadcasts will introduce uniquely coordinated production assets and social elements to create a first-time-ever viewing experience. Elements include: live curated chat experiences from well-known and well-respected football personalities; a dedicated social production team and correspondents; and ongoing integration of real-time social elements provided by the competing schools.

In addition, Stadium hopes to drive traffic back to its linear network WatchStadium.com, where sports fans are able to watch an additional 2,500+ college games. This lineup includes football, men’s and women’s basketball, lacrosse, and volleyball events from conferences such as the Mountain West, West Coast Conference, Patriot League, Conference USA and Southern Conference, the company says.

Look for this to become a growing trend in all sports. In a recent Morning Consult poll, 37% of adults said they’d be more inclined to watch college football games if a social media company such as Facebook were to live-stream them. The number for the NFL was even higher at 47%, with 60% of men and 58% of people aged 18 to 29 more likely to watch a football game on social media.

The network will run 24 hours a day, broadcasting live and on-demand games, highlights, classic games, as well as original and daily live studio programming. These streams will be available via the @WatchStadium Twitter account, as well as Stadium’s own website and the streaming service Pluto TV. The action kicks off Saturday with Miami (OH)/Marshall at 6:30 p.m.

*Be sure to check back for more technology news and how it is changing the football landscape!

Ask The Scouts: Is Scouting Harder Today Than 10 Years Ago?

26 Friday May 2017

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One of the best things about working with people in the game is that you get to ask them questions that demystify one of the most intriguing jobs in the game of football, at least in my opinion. When you ask about things that go a lot deeper than the superficial questions normally asked by members of the sports media, you can get some interesting answers.

This week, with the scouting carousel slowing down and scouts mostly getting back into their normal routine and either returning from the BLESTO meetings or readying to go to National Football Scouting’s meetings next week, we asked several scouts this question:

Do you think it’s harder (more schools to cover, entitled players, troublesome agents, greater media involvement) or easier (digital age, easier communications, better medical data, pro days more efficient) to be a scout than it was 10 years ago?

About a dozen scouts, some on the area level and some higher-ups, responded. We’ve included the respondents of the ‘scouting is easier today’ opinion in today’s post. They’re below.

  • “I wouldn’t say it is easier or harder, but it is different. Fans are more knowledgeable about the process and media coverage is more intense, but instant access to video, social media, and more advanced draft studies are among the changes for the better.”
  • “Easier mostly due to video – VHS tapes, then DVDs, now all digital. We’d have to wait for tapes or DVDs from NFL video, then team video, always late.  Now we can access any game the next week, all on a (Microsoft) Surface. Also, background info on Internet is easier.”
  • “Digital age made it easy to watch the game tape and write reports, but you still have to watch the tape and write the reports to have a great draft!”
  • “Tough to say, but I would (say) it was harder travel-wise 10 years ago because I’m sure there was less communication, marginal GPS services and specified roles in colleges.”
  • “Easier because the Internet allows you to get background info or stats instantly.  That can also be a negative if you have lazy scouts. Fifteen years ago, a scout would actually have to make a school visit to watch film. Now you get it on your iPad or computer immediately.”

Equally interesting, if you’re like me (and if you read this, you probably are), were the responses of those who said it’s harder now than it used to be. We’ve included those responses in our weekly email newsletter, the Friday Wrap.

If you don’t already receive it, join the 4,000 scouts, agents, financial advisors, trainers, coaches, parents of players, active NFL players, draft prospects, former players and others across the football business who do. It comes out late afternoon/early evening every Friday. It’s free, and I promise, you won’t be sorry. Click here to register.

Have a wonderful Memorial Day Weekend, and don’t forget why we celebrate it.

 

 

Scenes from Super Bowl Week

03 Friday Feb 2017

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Today was an interesting day. The Super Bowl came to my city this year, and that’s special for me as the ‘big game’ has never been part of my January/February schedule. I spent Thursday downtown getting a look at the landscape, just trying to get a better handle on what the festivities surrounding the game look like. Here are a few observations.

  • I watched the people who buy and flip Super Bowl tickets for several hours today. Quite a high-wire act. This morning, ticket prices were in free-fall, and vendors were looking for a soft landing spot for anything they had in their inventory. By this afternoon/evening, ticket were revving up again as many of the high-end ticket services were panicked and afraid the tickets they had already committed to filling might not be there. As I understand it, the league could release a huge block of tickets at any time that could once again drop prices. Hold your tickets too long, you could lose thousands of dollars. Hold them even longer, and maybe the prices rebound and you make thousands.
  • By the way, this week players from selected teams (different teams deliver their tickets in different ways) could pick up their tickets at a downtown hotel. Ticket people know this, and about 20 of them hung around outside the hotel. Pretty much, whenever an athletic-looking man in his 20s came anywhere near the hotel, he was mobbed by people wearing backpacks. Sometimes, they’d pull a wad of cash from the backpacks, count out a sum of money, and trade it for a pair, right there on the sidewalk. Today, I saw a player who had already struck a verbal deal with one broker take a different deal with someone who approached him on the sidewalk. Just like that.
  • If you’re a person aspiring to work in the league, you could do worse than to be here in Houston. At the Hilton downtown, where the media are staying, I saw young people with business cards they’d made up handing them out to the agents, business managers and other league-affiliated professionals in the lobby. Not a bad move. Here’s another place to be: at any bar near the downtown party locations for EA Sports, ESPN, the NFLPA, or any other big event. Very often, the VIPs spill out of the parties to have a drink at the nearby establishments. It’s just one more place to maybe make a connection.
  • By the way, if you’re into celebrity-watching, you could have done worse than to be at the Hilton this afternoon. In about two hours, I saw Dave Wannstedt, Morten Andersen, Boomer Esiason, Michael Strahan and Mike Greenberg of ESPN’s ‘Mike and Mike.’
  • Downtown was crawling with volunteers from the city who were handing out pro-Falcons or pro-Patriots handbills, giving directions, or holding props for tourists to use in selfies. They were all smiling, friendly, clearly excited to be a part of things. I know they didn’t get paid, and don’t get tickets or anything like that. I’m pretty sure all they get to do is say they volunteered with the Super Bowl effort. It’s amazing how much the NFL delivers excitement, electricity, and yes, even status to people freely giving their time and energy on a workday.
  • During a casual conversation I had with a fellow I met today, we discussed the life of a recruiter attached to a big agency. My friend was of the impression that recruiters for major agencies make millions of dollars. That’s a common misconception. He was pretty surprised when I told him a typical recruiter is lucky if he’s making a base of around $40,000-$50,000 plus expenses. And I mean, that’s a recruiter who’s really lucky. Most agencies these days will work with a younger agent (or unlicensed recruiter) strictly on an eat-what-you-kill basis. If he makes anything north of $20,000 and gets his expenses covered — plus gets to live The Life — he has to count himself extraordinarily lucky.

How to Become an NFL QB (from an ex-NFL QB)

17 Thursday Nov 2016

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Tim Jenkins

Today, I turn the blog over to Tim Jenkins. I met Tim sometime in the fall/winter before the 2013 NFL draft, when he was a QB prospect out of Division II Ft. Lewis College. As I recall, his parents found me on the Internet, and we got to be good friends in the run-up to the draft as I worked with them, advising them along the way and helping them sort out their options as a consultant in my ITL role.

Ultimately, Tim went undrafted but landed a tryout with the Rams and, despite coming in with no guarantees, he was one of the few to earn a contract. He was ultimately cut in training camp, and after a short cup of coffee in the CFL, he moved on to his next phase. Now, despite being just a few short years out of college, he’s a rising star on the QB training circuit and has 65 passers under his instruction.

His latest move is to launch a draft prep program. Specialists at the position have become overnight celebrities in recent seasons as such training has gained traction, and Tim is the next big name you’ll be seeing as a guru to the best prospects. I encourage you to check out his Website.

Obviously, the quarterback position is special, the toughest one to play in all of sports, in my opinion. Every year, about 50 rookie quarterbacks are drafted, signed post-draft, or brought in as tryout players, while hundreds of others are passed over. Here are a few tips from Tim on how to be one of those 50.


My Journey: In 2009 I was a 6-foot-1, 165-pound senior quarterback who had one year of varsity football under his belt. However, I had a high football IQ and could spin it slightly better than most, and I landed at Fort Lewis College, one of my three Division II offers. From there, I started four years (including my true freshman year), threw for 8,968 yards and set 18 school records. The kicker: I missed the back half of my senior season with a separated shoulder and we finished a whopping 0-10.

Despite the odds, I made the decision that I was going to make it to the NFL regardless of where I ranked on NFL Draft Scout’s Website or what advice I got, and that’s exactly what I did. I signed with the St. Louis Rams in 2013 after participating in their rookie minicamp on a tryout basis. Here are a few things I did that can help you make it to camp, or enhance your chances of getting drafted if you’re a passer.

  • Find an agent: After my sophomore year was when I decided I thought I could play professional football. That’s when I began to reach out to agents and share with them my highlight tape and stats. I was looking to build relationships. The rules are simple — you can build relationships but you can’t take anything. If you think you have the moral fiber to resist temptation, start this process as soon as possible because like in everything, the agency business gets painted with a broad brush because of the actions of a few. Build relationships that will come into play when you exhaust your eligibility.
  • Find a trainer: Here’s a mistake I made that you shouldn’t. Find a position-specific QB trainer who understands the NFL game. For example, at Jenkins Elite, we give agents or quarterbacks a list of our NFL curriculum, which includes 459 different concepts I learned in the NFL. Most college kids don’t understand the importance of these concepts until they get there. As everyone knows, if you’re learning basic stuff while you’re in the NFL, it’s too late.
  • Find an all-star game: This is where I got noticed. The Casino del Sol all-star game in Tucson, Ariz., which is no longer even around, was my saving grace. Pursue these games. Send emails and put calls in to the player director. Be aggressive. Now, will they invite you just because you called? Absolutely not, but when they are scrambling to find a QB because one dropped out or decided on another game, your name will be on that list, just like mine was! By the way, working with all-star games is something Neil and Inside the League do very well.
  • Know your class: Begin to understand the rest of the competition in your draft class. Identify areas you could improve on while also seeing areas you excel in and where you can separate yourself from the competition. Don’t get caught up reading articles from bloggers; stay focused on the feedback you get from scouts or your agent and keep pushing. The process seems like a long time, though the reality is that it’s a couple months that can shape the rest of your life.

I hope this piece can serve someone trying to help a small-school kid get noticed, or a small-school kid himself who is trying to get noticed. The NFL is often closer than people think. They just need to be willing to do all the little things that can help get them there, which sometimes, as I learned, was emailing people and getting told ‘no’ 99 times. The ‘yes’ you get on the hundredth email is why you do it!

 

Screaming Eagles ‘Fanchise’ Welcoming Players AND Executives

13 Thursday Oct 2016

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Fantasy football has become a critical part of the NFL fan experience, and to me, the reason is obvious: people want to be part of the decision-making process of an NFL team and pit themselves against others to measure their front office acumen.

The Succeed in Football reader, however, is more than just a fan. Our readers are so passionate that they want to be part of the game. That’s why you, dear reader, need to know about the Salt Lake Screaming Eagles, an Indoor Football League (IFL) franchise that’s holding a tryout (along with several other IFL teams) in Dallas next weekend.

“If you’ve ever had a passion to help build your own football franchise from the ground up, the fanchise is necessary in your life!” said Ray Austin, a former NFL player who is the co-founder and Director of Team Operations for the Eagles. “We respect our fans, we engage directly with our fans and give our fans direct contact with us. There are so many awesome components of a football team, from scouting, coaching, or being a bad-ass play-caller, or even a part of our GM staff, to helping with marketing the Screaming Eagles. Either way, you have a say with your team.”

The Eagles are a ‘fanchise’ that literally allows members of its virtual ‘front office’ to make important team decisions, even calling plays during the game. Already, Screaming Eagles subscribers (you can become a scout, assistant coach or assistant GM depending on the monthly fee you choose) have chosen the team’s name, uniform colors, head coach and team logo, with votes ahead on the team’s field and uniform design as well as the makeup of the dance team. Still on the horizon is the big kahuna: actually selecting the players that will try out for the team.

“Fantasy football and gaming is the closest you can get to ever coming close to coaching, calling plays and or drafting or building an actual dynasty. Until Fanchise,” Austin said. “It’s easy to go off of best athletes in the world. How good are you? Can you really eye talent? Can you really choose that key third-down play? We’re giving fans the ability to decide from the name to the coach, to even 3rd and 5. Tell me, what fantasy poll can give you that?”

Though the idea of running a team is tantalizing, there have to be players at the tryout before cuts can be made. That’s why the Eagles (along with the Wichita Falls, Iowa and Colorado IFL franchises) will be in attendance Oct. 22 from noon-4 p.m. at the D1 Dallas facility, 8081 Walnut Hill Ln, #100, Dallas, TX 75231. Cost is $75.

“I grew up in Oklahoma and I  know about the athletes in Texas,” Austin said. “They bleed football. Texas has the third-most players in the NFL. It won’t be hard for us to find ballplayers.”

If you’re a player or represent one interested in trying out, click here to register. If you’re interested in becoming part of the team braintrust, click here to get started. Either way, Austin wants to welcome as many Screaming Eagles aboard as possible.

“In February 2017, the first fan-run football team will step on the field, built and run by the fans since Day 1,” Austin said. “Coaches and players will be selected by the fans who want to win. The experience has been amazing, and we look forward to sharing this with the world.”

Thoughts on the Football Biz from ex-Lions Exec Cedric Saunders

04 Tuesday Oct 2016

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Cedric Saunders, detroit lions

Last week, Bay Harbor Island, Fla.-based Goal Line Sports announced that it had hired former Detroit Lions executive Cedric Saunders as the firm’s new Vice President of Football Operations.
It’s an interesting hire. Goal Line Football isn’t a powerhouse agency on the level of CAA or Athletes First, but it’s no less respected. In fact, Goal Line CEO Brian Levy is among the more powerful agents in one of the fastest-growing areas of sports representation: coaches. Among his clients are Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin and Dolphins defensive coordinator Vance Joseph.
I wanted to get Cedric’s thoughts on the business and the direction it’s going, especially when it comes to the slowly disappearing line between NFL personnel and contract advisors. He was kind enough to oblige. Here are a few selected answers based on the questions we had.
What kinds of things will you do for the agency? How can you help Brian expand his firm?
“I’m  bringing over 17 years of experience in the NFL from being a player, scout, and front office executive. I will be helping on the operations side of the business in terms of targeting good coaches and front office personnel and growing our clientele the right way with the right people. We really want our company to stand for what the (agency) motto says: ‘Faith – Family – Football.’
“We want our clients to be successful and to feel a part of the family and know that we are all in this together.  I will help with negotiating coaching contracts. I will also help on the player side as well with helping our player agents with which players to target and scout and how we can mainstream the process from an operational standpoint. I will also play a part in prepping our players for all-star games and combine interviews. Also with my background in player development, I can play a role in the (players’) long-term career goals for while they are playing and once their career is over.
“I believe my experiences in the NFL and the friends and contacts I’ve made over the years lends well to helping Brian expand our firm from a coaching standpoint and a player one, as well.”
There’s a lot of volatility in scouting and front offices, and it seems harder than ever to get hired and stay hired in the football world. What do you attribute that to? 
“I believe some of the volatility can be attributed to owners getting less and less patient with keeping GMs and coaches in place if they are not producing within a three-year span and them staying consistent. They are getting more and more pressure from the fans to make changes as well (if) the team is not doing well. It use to be GMs would get a chance to at least hire two coaches, sometimes three, before the owners would start looking at them for replacement. Now it’s down to two and sometimes only one chance to hire a head coach. Bottom line, owners want results more quickly then they did in the past. Then the thing about GMs is you only get one shot at it. You can probably count on one hand how many two-time GMs there are in the league.”
In a business as competitive as pro football, changes are pretty constant. What trends in scouting, or in media, or in college football or whatever, will have the most impact on the pro football business in the next decade, in your opinion?
“I believe technology will have the most impact on the pro football business in the next decade. Look at what’s going on with the tablets on the sidelines, and now how much more analytics is playing a part in how teams are preparing. There’s also the virtual reality googles. Every year something new in technology is coming out that is supposed to give you an advantage, or makes it a little easier to get done.”

How Effective Is Your Agent?

31 Tuesday May 2016

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NFL agent

Today, I got into a heated but respectful exchange on Twitter regarding Miami Beach-based Drew Rosenhaus of Rosenhaus Sports. It was based on the fact that Drew leads all agents in total clients, and in fact has (literally) double the amount of clients that the second-place contract advisor has.

My counterpart’s argument: Rosenhaus must essentially ignore all his clients, because no man can give that much time and attention to that many players.

I understand his argument, but let me explain why I see this as a false presumption. Once an agent signs a player, there’s no expiration date on the SRA. Unless the player (or sometimes the agent) ends the relationship, he represents him in perpetuity. That means that many agents are walking around with hundreds of clients, but none of them are in the NFL. Don’t believe me? Google the websites of some agencies. You may find the pictures of dozens of players, many of them in NFL uniforms or whatever. Then go to that team’s website and see if they’re actually on the roster. In most cases, they aren’t, and haven’t been for years. In fact, in a lot of cases, they were only on the roster for training camp. That means they didn’t make a penny, relatively speaking, beyond their UDFA bonus.

It’s important to understand that simply representing a college athlete is not a valid measure of success in this business. Unless he’s in the NFL, he’s not getting paid. That means, he’s costing his agent time — which is a resource — and in some cases money, in the form of training fees, housing, out-of-pocket expenses, etc.

A player on an NFL roster really doesn’t (shouldn’t?) need to stay in daily contact with his agent. I mean, the agent’s job is to seek out opportunities for his clients, and once found, the client has to take it from there. One of the central complaints I get from agents all the time, large and small, is how much hand-holding a player expects. This is a problem that’s probably getting worse instead of better. The number of services a player expects is sometimes unreasonable.

There’s no easy way to measure the number of clients an agent has on the street versus in the league, but short of doing that, there’s no way to determine how much attention players get from various agents. It would be a valuable metric, but I don’t know how you’d determine that. In the meantime, I certainly don’t fault agents who try to help dozens of young men realize their NFL dreams, but I don’t necessarily think they’re better agents because of it.

My Dilemma

27 Friday May 2016

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On Wednesday morning, my phone buzzed, telling me an email had arrived. It was my mother sending me a link she’d found to a story about a person from my past. This person is a former employer, and the first person I’ve met who was a real, live con man.

Of course, con men are almost common in the sports and entertainment business, so I guess it’s a little naive to say such people are rarities. But he was the first person who really conned me, lock, stock and barrel, and on a much larger scale than most who operate in the football world.

This man was part of an organization with tradition in the football square, and when we crossed paths, he seemed to be a person of unimpeachable integrity and personal honor. About eight months later, I found out that not only was this not true, but that he had victimized countless people, and that, through me, he’d exploited even more people because I’d been blind to his methods. In the end, I had to pursue legal means to get back a fraction of the money I’d spent on his behalf, plus the checks he owed me for working for him.

The part that’s most difficult is that, like so many hucksters, he wears his faith on his sleeve and uses it to gain trust. In fact, he’s now attached himself to a major faith-based organization, and is taking advantage of a recent development in the national news to gain leverage over the people that are part of this organization’s audience.

So the dilemma is this: do I risk the terms of the agreement I signed with him in order to expose him? And if I do, how do I expose him? Do I reach out to this organization, and if I do, how? And if I can reach someone, what do I do if they don’t believe me (he’s firmly entrenched with them, and was even in the days when I worked with him)?

I’m trying to prayerfully balance the concerns I have for him taking advantage of even more people vs. my own desire to remain free from litigation that could be costly and take away a lot of bandwidth from my own pursuits. So I guess that’s why I’m bringing it to you, my readers, perhaps to solicit your thoughts and perhaps to assemble it more fully in my own mind.

Thoughts? Let me know in comments. Have a great weekend.

Guest Columnist: Take Value Pts With a Grain of Salt

26 Tuesday Apr 2016

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NFL draft, Troy Brown

Earlier this month, I had lunch with my former business partner, Troy, and posted here about it. He thinks a lot about the draft and closely follows the process as well as the prospects. For that reason, when he took issue with one of my posts last week, I asked him to develop his opinion so I could publish it here. He makes some great points.

I’ll turn it over to Troy.


So much is made of the NFL Draft value points chart created more than a quarter century ago by former Cowboys head coach Jimmy Johnson. It’s natural this time of year — especially with the recent blockbusters involving a bundle of picks for the No. 1 and 2 overall selections.

While a fun exercise in theory, my argument is that the chart is completely irrelevant for teams without a franchise QB for this simple reason: The league, more than ever, is comprised of “haves” and “have-nots.” Those with a clear-cut, long-term guy under center will be in the mix each year. And those without? Their only chance is that stars align for their team in a one-off season.

Therefore, instead of looking at a complex points chart, the have-nots should be doing whatever’s necessary to put themselves in position to get their long-term solution at QB because, long term, the bundle of draft picks (and “points”) you give up are irrelevant.

Looking back at its origin, the points system was useful for Johnson at the time. He was gift-wrapped Troy Aikman and soon acquired a boatload of picks from Minnesota in the Herschel Walker deal. So it made sense to use metrics to gain valuable assets to surround the future Hall of Fame QB and a pretty barren roster. I would even argue that the point system can be valuable today for teams such as Green Bay and Indianapolis that are trying to build talent around their franchise QB.

However, the major flaw in a rigid point system is that all the slotted picks are not created equal. For example, under the point chart, the No. 1 overall pick is worth 3,000 points, with No. 2 being 2,600, No. 3 at 2,200, and so on.

Look at recent history. In 2011 and 2012, the first picks were Cam Newton and Andrew Luck. In 2013-2014, they were Eric Fisher and Jadeveon Clowney. Anyone think those picks should be looked at equally, as they are by the points chart?

Fisher, Clowney and other non-QB top picks are nice prospects, but they are not winning you games week-in, week-out. QBs like Luck and Newton can single-handedly win games and keep their respective teams in the playoff mix every year for decade. How can you put a point total on that?

For example, if prior to the 2012 draft, Cleveland, which picked No. 3, would have offered Indianapolis five No. 1 draft picks to move up just two spots, advocates of the value points chart would have jumped all over the deal. Those who follow the chart would argue that five No. 1 draft choices would far outweigh getting that single pick.

However, since a true franchise QB was involved, I would argue that giving up those picks would still be a great bargain for the Browns. With Luck as its franchise QB, the Browns would have almost certainly made a couple of playoffs appearances—or at least been in the mix each of the past four years. It could then focus on building around its young signal-caller with a clear direction for the next decade.

And the Colts, taking what the Browns offered, could have then selected (as the Browns actually did with its next five No. 1 picks) Trent Richardson, Barkevious Mingo, Justin Gilbert, Johnny Manziel and Danny Shelton. Guess what? If that had happened, four years later the Colts would still have no idea what direction it was going and no chance to compete each of the last four seasons … much like the Browns today.

Moving forward to what we’ve seen in the past couple of weeks, I’ve heard so many ‘NFL insiders’ say “the Rams gave up way too much” or “the Eagles could wreck their franchise for years if this trade doesn’t work out.” It’s all complete hogwash.

Just take a look at the most recent ‘blockbuster’ trade from 2012, involving the Rams and Redskins. Washington essentially gave up the Nos. 6 and 39 overall picks in 2012, No. 22 in 2013 and No. 2 overall pick in 2014.

People said the Redskins “mortgaged their future” on the prospects of Robert Griffin III. Well, obviously, he didn’t work out in Washington, as four years later he’s in Cleveland. Yet, since the trade, the Redskins have won the NFC East twice in the past four seasons—once with RGIII and once with Kurt Cousins— yet remain a have-not in the bigger picture in terms of being a real Super Bowl threat. The Redskins are essentially in the same boat they were before the trade.

On the flip side, we heard so much about how the Rams gouged the Redskins and setting themselves up as real contenders because of the haul of picks in the deal. Yet, after it was all said and done, the players they took with the Redskins’ picks were DT Michael Brockers, DC Janoris Jenkins, OH Isaiah Pead, OG Rokevious Watkins, IB Alec Ogletree, WO Stedman Bailey, OH Zac Stacy and OT Greg Robinson. And exactly how many wins have those guys contributed to over the past four years? Very few. The Rams basically remain in the same position they were before the blockbuster. A have-not. Both teams are still searching for that guy.

So, let’s bring the discussion back to last week’s deal between the Browns and Eagles. Who is the likely winner and loser?

To me, at least Philadelphia has the potential to be the big winner. Why? Because it put itself in a position to get a potential franchise QB and be a “have” franchise for a decade. Conversely, the Browns might very well build up quite a talented roster but it will remain a “have-not” without that special guy taking snaps.

Who knows if Jared Goff or Carson Wentz will be the man for his respective team? But I’ll always applaud a team that doesn’t have a franchise QB trying everything in its power to acquire one.

In a nutshell, I’m not saying acquiring a bunch of picks cannot be valuable assets. What I am saying is that in today’s NFL, when a potential franchise QB is involved, a ‘bunch of guys’ does not equal ‘The Guy.’

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