WSW: Don’t Be Afraid

27 Wednesday May 2015

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As I sift through the people on Twitter that post in the football world, I see lots of bio pages that proudly proclaim Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA) membership.

If you’re hoping to be the next McShay, Kiper or Mayock, and you don’t have such a membership, that may be a little intimidating to you. Well, I’m here to tell you not to fear that, or really anything else, as you make your climb in the business. Often, such certifications don’t indicate anything more than an ability to pay club fees.

You won’t find membership in the PFWA on my Twitter bio. Here’s why.

I remember my first NFL combine in 2002. It was a big deal, because I had never been to one, and I knew I’d be launching Inside the League that fall. I had no idea what to expect. I had been told by a friend that all the media hung out in the lobby of the Crowne Plaza hotel at Union Station in downtown Indianapolis, but when I got there, I found out that the NFL had mandated that the media inhabit this one big room in the Indiana Convention Center. I was fortunate enough to get a credential, so I carried by laptop in and inhabited a space somewhere at the tables that were set up along the walls.

I got in before anyone else just to make sure I got a seat, but a couple hours later, the then-President of the PFWA would make an announcement of what players were expected to pass through the interview room that day. He’d also urge everyone to follow their assignments on the transcriptions they’d been assigned. In short order, I found out I would be welcomed into the PFWA, even though I had no affiliations with major newspapers, radio or TV. All I had to do was pay my money and I’d be put on the email list. I’d even get access to the transcriptions, which was really helpful because I was trying to do my own, and could never get all the players myself.

At any rate, one day that week I learned that there were several players that had slipped through the cracks. I had taped these players’ interviews, and I felt that this was my chance to really gain traction with some major writers and make some key contacts. For that reason, I spent the week after the combine madly transcribing, in minute detail, the interviews I’d done with several lesser prospects. The President of the PFWA, who happened to be local, assured me I had done a great thing. “This is a really big help to us,” he said. “You’ve got a great future in the PFWA and I won’t forget this.”

Well, he pretty much forgot about it by the following week. I tried to contact him about a few small things in the ensuing weeks, and he ignored my emails and other notes completely. I finally got my courage up to call him a couple times, too, and I never got any response whatsoever.

I was pretty shocked. I mean, this was the vaunted PFWA. I thought I had arrived when I achieved membership, and thought I was among an army of respected and hard-working professionals, the biggest names in the business. I found out I was just another disposable member, a guy who was counted on to write a check and transcribe some lesser prospects’ interviews, and nothing more.

It was really frustrating then, but it made me realize that such a membership was really nothing more than an empty title. I realized that at the end of the day, my success wouldn’t be counted on how many ‘clubs’ I was in, but in how much legitimate, reliable, helpful information and insights I provided. It didn’t matter one bit if I was in a writers association.

That’s true of you, too. Don’t worry about any — any — clubs, societies, associations, fraternities, or anything else that seems exclusive. Most of the time, those are just places for mediocrity to hide. Once you achieve success, people in these groups will seek you out for membership.

Your success doesn’t ever hinge on recognition from your supposed peers. In fact, most people who really achieved things did it despite their peers’ disdain. It’s just one more thing you can use for inspiration.

Wasting Time

25 Monday May 2015

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First off, happy Memorial Day. I hope you and your family set aside time today to remember why we’re all off work today and able to celebrate with our families. It’s sad that some will scarcely remember why in the world we don’t jet off to the office today.

On Friday on the ITL side, we reported that only 96 out of 175 contract advisors certified last fall went on to sign a prospect for the 2015 NFL draft. That’s about 45 percent, around half of the entire class. We actually missed on our count Friday, calling it 94. Anyway . . . .

Here’s the rationale for those 79 agents without clients this year. No. 1, they get a really late start on the process, because though they take the test at the end of July in Washington, D.C., they don’t get their results until late September. That means they get a really late jump on the process. OK, I get that. I don’t agree, but I get it.

Here’s a secondary reason. A serious portion of those that come into the game only got certified because they thought they had a sure thing — a nephew, or brother, or a player they coached in Pop Warner, or whatever. Then they get to November or December, and then they get the ‘hey, I love you like a brother and you’re always gonna be part of the family, but I gotta go with this experienced agent over here.’ Discouraged, they sign no one.

The third reason is really a fear of getting in the game. Many of them get certified thinking the costs of representing a player are negligible (that’s off by about $10,000/player) and they feel like they’ll get a fair shot if they play by the local college’s rules and get registered properly in the states where they recruit. Then they find out the players they waited all season to talk to had been having discussions with agents since the previous summer, and have already made up their minds.

But that’s for another day. I know a lot of people who’ll take the agent exam this summer read this blog. I want those people to decide, right now, that they will truly go for it if they get into this business. If you make it to certification, don’t be satisfied with simply putting that on your business card.

The pro football business, despite its difficulties (and there are plenty), has the shortest incubation period (from player signed to player paying his agent) in professional athletics. Represent a baseball player or hockey player, and it may take years for him to wind his way through the minor leagues, then in baseball, you don’t get paid until he makes it past arbitration. In basketball, which has a much shorter bench, you better identify the top players when they’re in seventh grade, then start cozying up to their families very early. In football, you might meet a kid in December, sign him in January, and see him make a roster in September. You won’t find that in any other sport.

Gotta run. But my basic message is the same as it is every day in this space. Don’t be paralyzed by fear. Decide what you’re going to do, count the cost, then really sell out for it. There’s no feeling like succeeding in football.

A Happy Ending, Perhaps

22 Friday May 2015

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We got a lot of feedback and traction with our post last Friday discussing a scout dismissed by an NFL team with a serious medical condition. I thought I’d follow up with good news. Maybe it sends you off on the holiday weekend on a positive note.

I got a call today from the person who originally told me about the recently dismissed scout’s plight. He said things are moving in the right direction. I was told that the owner of the scout’s former team got a phone call from an NFL head coach, and the coach was angry. He expressed his frustration to the owner — who apparently had been left in the dark. Now the owner is angry, and he’s moving heaven and earth to resolve things.

The scout, who had a year left on his deal, is still getting paid, but his insurance, which was to expire in six months, is no longer an issue. The owner has assured him the team will see him through his medial situation, no matter what it takes. In addition, the scout, who wished to remain anonymous, gets to remain so.

Now that things have taken a good turn, it will be interesting to see how (if?) it plays out in the media. With this resolution, it’s a perfect time for someone to put a nice bow on things, to talk about how matters with such gravity transcend hirings and firings. Who knows? Maybe even the NFL machine picks it up to make it seem like a heart-warming sign of humanity within a game seen as ultra-violent and volatile. But you’ll know the truth.

At the end of the day, I guess, it doesn’t matter. A man who’s a father and a husband gets some peace of mind. Still, it’s something to watch for in the coming weeks especially as news gets slow and the league looks to turn attention away from Deflategate.

Have a wonderful Memorial Day and don’t forget why we celebrate. May God bless you and your family this weekend.

Here’s An Idea

21 Thursday May 2015

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In this space, I try to encourage people who want a place in football to go their own way, and to find their own route to success. I was talking to a couple friends in football over the past week, one a scout and one who runs all-star games, and they each discussed an idea I’ve always thought about: basically, it’s a combine with pads.

Most folks who run all-star games are football guys. They aren’t TV people and they aren’t ticket sales experts, but they have to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars to broadcast the games (that’s right — they PAY for air time rather than receiving money for broadcast rights) and hope they get 5,000-6,000 fans at the gate (which is about right for most all-star games). What they’d like to focus on, usually, is compiling a talented roster of players and some good coaches, then making sure NFL teams have all the information they need.

So what if they could just focus on their areas of expertise? What if there was a week of practice without a game? What if a game could run full-contact workouts that were more than just the 90-minute exercises, often not even in pads, that you see at all-star games?

What if you brought in the top 330 or so players and ran them through workouts on three adjacent fields? You started on Monday, had weigh-ins and covered plays, then turned the players loose for three days of head-to-head action? If the league got on board with it, this model could revolutionize the game, giving players more time to prepare for their pro day and potentially eliminating the need for a combine, or at least reducing its importance.

There are a couple of holdups. No. 1 is money, of course. The NFL is always reluctant to open its wallet, especially when there’s a reasonably good facsimile of an idea already in place (minor league football, anyone?). The other hurdle is that the league hates change. People from all walks of football have told me this, and it’s the only reason in the world why teams essentially conduct 32 different scouting operations rather than centralizing the obvious things like weigh-ins (for instance, why do 32 teams’ scouts sit in one room, writing down heights and weights with pencil and paper, when one intern could do it for all of them?).

So, there are always holdups, but there’s an idea, ready to go and on the house. Would it be an easy sell? Of course not. But I feel, and others I talk to feel, that it’s an idea whose time has come.

Random Scouting Thoughts

19 Tuesday May 2015

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After a few conversations with scouts, here are a couple of observations about the business and how, perhaps, to land a position in scouting and, once you’ve got it, how to keep it.

  • One scout told me the biggest part of his job is getting a GM, head coach or other superior to see what he’s seen and likes. In other words, when the scouting staff is watching film, it’s important the team sees film of a prospect not when he’s hurt, but when he’s healthy. If a team looks at a player when he’s coming off an ankle injury, or has a bum shoulder, or whatever, the opinion of his ability will be very different from when he was at full strength. This scout takes a personal interest in seeing that such film is what goes on the screen. I know of another scout who got a player drafted because he went back to the player’s junior-year film, when the young man was playing his best position, rather than focusing solely on what the player was doing as a senior. That scout received a promotion this year, and it was well-deserved. That’s way more than just doing the minimum. You’ve got to make sure the player is seen in his best light. That’s how you find stars that are off other teams’ radars.
  • In talking to agents, I hear a lot about how a player’s off-field issues don’t matter or at least don’t matter as much. In speaking to a scout recently, he made it clear off-field is as important as on. It’s because getting to class, getting to meetings on time, taking the steps to stay healthy, learning the playbook, being where you’re supposed to be, and everything else ‘outside the lines’ is what keeps you successful inside them. It shows maturity and a successful personality. Coaches in the NFL lack the bandwidth to be on a kid all day every day just to make sure he does what he’s supposed to.
  • I know of a scout who’s looking for a helper, an assistant, and he said he’s made a point of looking for someone who has paid his dues, working for free at times and changing places (jobs, schools) in his campaign to get to the NFL. “That guy isn’t going to expect anything to be handed to him,” my friend said. “He will know that he must work hard without me telling him.”
  • Believe it or not, scouts are not given carte blanche by some agents, and certainly by many college teams. I heard today of an agent who told a high-level scout he couldn’t have access to a draft-eligible player. “Tell me what you want and I’ll get it from him,” this agent told the scout. It’s no surprise his client went undrafted despite being among the top prospects at his position. If you represent a player, do everything possible to satisfy requests made by NFL teams. Don’t do anything to have your client taken off the board, as this agent’s client was.

The End

18 Monday May 2015

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I’m often accused of being too blunt, too cold, too hard in this space. Well, here I go again, I guess. Today I want to talk about the 2015 NFL draft class, and I’m speaking more of all draft candidates rather than just the ones that have been chosen.

If you are a player who was draft-eligible the first weekend of May, I’m sure it was absolutely crushing if you were not selected. It’s the sudden gravity of the situation and the realization that there will be no miracles. Well, today is really the day that marks the official end of NFL dreams for members of the ’15 draft class.

How come? All but six NFL teams had their rookie mini-camps the weekend following the draft, followed by the 49ers, Chargers, Redskins, Saints, Titans and Chiefs, who worked out their new players this past weekend. At these rookie mini-camps, teams welcomed mainly draftees, undrafted free agents and tryout players.

The difference between undrafted free agents and tryout players is poorly understood, but it’s really pretty simple. While teams can only draft or sign 90 players, they can bring in as many tryout players as they want. Some teams brought in 20 or 30, though for the most part these tryout guys are strictly bag-holders, guys to take the reps so the draftees don’t get too tired. One scout I spoke to called them ‘cheap labor.’ These guys are in camp, yes, but their odds are quite long. They do make rosters sometimes, though it’s not very common. But hey, at least they got to wear an NFL helmet for a weekend.

At least 1,000 players who signed with agents didn’t even make it to a tryout. This has meaning because I’ve seen dozens of pictures of players signing SRAs, their parents beaming proudly behind them. Sometimes they turn it into an event and have cookouts built around signing with an agent. Bottom line, they feel that SRA makes them NFL prospects. Not true. Many of these folks don’t make that realization until this weekend, when camps are closed and they understand no one’s calling.

Of course, many agents get the boot around this time. This is often because the player can’t come to grips with this reality. But it’s no less true.

Let me give one last disclaimer: there are always players that are passed over in the draft and even in undrafted free agency that wind up spending at least some time on an NFL roster. Still, if you just completed your last year of college football and still haven’t heard the phone ring, I encourage you to start thinking in terms of your life’s work.

Cold, hard reality

15 Friday May 2015

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I got a phone call from a friend on Wednesday. Before he would go forward with the call, he made me promise I wouldn’t disclose where he got the information he was about to tell me. That’s not unusual, and I gave my word.

As you know if you read this blog regularly, this is the time of year when scouts get fired. Despite what some people claim on Twitter, it’s not a knee-jerk reaction to some missed picks on draft weekend. In most cases, these changes were planned months ago, when there was a shift in power due to a new GM, a newly empowered head coach, a team looking to cut back, or whatever.

Anyway, my friend told me one of the 15-20 scouts who’s been shuffled out the door in the last couple weeks has a serious medical condition. It’s a brain tumor, in fact. I don’t have any details — I don’t know if it’s operable, or whether or not the scout has a contract that will pay him for another year(s) with attendant health insurance. All I know is that it’s a man with a family and serious medical questions clouding his future. My friend was beside himself.

“I mean, they knew he had a brain tumor,” he said. “They let him go anyway. It would have been so much easier to say, ‘we’re going to make a change, but we’re going to work this out.’ But they didn’t do that.”

My friend then told me I could do what I want with the information. I gotta say, I don’t quite know what to do.

First off, I don’t know the scout, and given that this is pretty sensitive information, I’m just not sure that it would be right to expose this. If we’re talking about a situation that can be handled quietly, it’s probably better to leave it alone. If it becomes widely known that he’s suffering with this condition, it probably makes him unemployable.

On the other hand, a team that would do something like this, well, it probably deserves to be exposed. But that’s hard to do given that I have one source on this, and really lack the fundamentals of the story. Without the team’s side of things, it’s hard to pick on them. What if they did take care of him? What if my friend lacks some key details?

So I’m in a bit of a quandary, but for what it’s worth, I don’t doubt what I was told. Scouts are generally seen as disposable. It’s a business, pure and simple, and just one more reason to choose wisely if you’re considering evaluation as your career path.

A Closer Look at the ’15 Draft Class

14 Thursday May 2015

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We just finished examining the entire 2015 draft class, and we’re starting a breakdown of the players who were eligible to be selected two weekends ago. I find it a lot more illuminating to look at every single player who was hoping to hear his name called that week, rather than strictly the ones the media was touting. It just gives you a clearer, bigger picture of the entire draft. Here are a few thoughts.

  • We identified 1,989 players who signed with agents this year. We arrived at that number by taking the 2060 players the NFLPA listed as being draft-eligible and signed to a standard representation agreement, then eliminating all the repeat listings, veterans sorted in with draft prospects, misspellings that created incorrect listings, etc.
  • Also, I would estimate that the actual number of players who signed such deals is at least five percent, and maybe 10 percent, higher than 1,989. We had to go through and add 105 names to the list that had been omitted, and this was based solely on the tryout and UDFA players we know were part of this draft class. At any rate, almost 2,000 players is a big number when you consider that most teams only have around 100-150 on their boards as draftable.
  • Counting the number of players signed to undrafted free agent deals, as well as those invited in for tryouts, is notoriously hard because (a) some teams like to hide this from the media and (b) there are still six teams that will hold camp this weekend and don’t yet have their rosters and invitations set.
  • With that said, we’ve counted 489 tryout players and another 437 signed as undrafted free agents. The number will be slightly higher by the time the six teams wrap things up this weekend, and we hope to gather those names to add to our totals. Still, statistically speaking, only about five percent of those invitees will actually be offered contracts. Of those who are offered contracts, only about eight percent (one in 12) will actually make it to the 53 or a practice squad.
  • Figure that every one of these players that made it to a tryout, as well as those who signed as undrafted free agents, went into the draft as at least a solid bet to go in the seventh round. Having spoken to agents this spring, the cost of doing business for a player with a draftable grade is about $10,000 per player (counting training, food, lodging, etc.). That means that agents spent, all told, about $1 million training players that have, at best, an eight percent chance of making even a practice squad.
  • And for those that don’t know, the NFL doesn’t allow contract advisors to bill players on practice squads, so those fees are eaten, as well, unless the kid gets elevated onto the 53.
  • Of course, more than half the players that signed standard representation agreements didn’t even make it to a tryout, and we all know many of those players got paid training, as well. So determining the amount of money that went up in smoke at the end of the draft is really pure guesswork. I’d estimate that number to reach at least $1.3 million to $1.4 million.

I’m just getting started on these numbers. There’s still a lot of polishing that will go into them, and we’ll divide them up by position, school size, and a number of other factors next week over at Inside the League. This has been a wildly popular breakdown when I’ve done it in the past.

At any rate, I’ve provided today’s analysis just to give a little perspective, a peak behind the curtain. I think it provides a snapshot of the draft class and the odds players face in making the league.

WSW: Give Peace A Chance

13 Wednesday May 2015

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If you follow ITL on Twitter, you’ve been reading about the numerous hirings and firings by NFL teams over the past week-plus. It’s as much a part of this season in the NFL as swimsuits are to summer.

First, a quick aside for a pet peeve of mine: I hate it when I read a story from the sports media with the ‘it’s all just a game’ premise. You most often see this when a player’s child is stricken with a serious illness, or when a team soldiers on in the face of great regional turmoil/natural disaster, or whatever. First, it’s a lame, lazy premise. Second, all the people working in this ‘game’ depend on it to provide food, shelter, college expenses, etc., not just to themselves but to their families (and often extended families). Most often, their stay in this ‘game’ is also short, very short.

OK, I think I’m over my rant now.

Anyway, over the past 8-10 days, I’ve done a lot of writing about scouts who have been pushed out as new GMs have taken over, or for whatever reason. One of them, about a day after I posted his dismissal, sent me an email that said this:

“I saw where you posted the other day that I may be heading to (an NFL city).  Not only is that inaccurate, but I was also trying to keep it quiet while I transitioned to another job.  Other reporters reached out to me and had no problem holding the story.  I understand you have a job to do, but please at least make sure all of the facts are right.  Thank you.”

No. 1, getting emails/calls/texts like this is part of the business. No. 2, this is about as even-handed, courteous and respectful as these communiques get. No. 3, I’m very sensitive to what it means when someone loses his job. In many (most?) cases, it’s the last NFL job a person has. I understand all of this (which is why the ‘just a game’ stories really dig into me).

I responded by explaining that my speculation, which I believed credible, was well-meaning. I also thanked him for his even tone. My response read, in part:

“If we ever get to know each other – I know several of your friends – you will see that I’m not a bad guy. . . I’m always going to try to put a positive spin on transactions in this business because I, for one, know how hard it is. I don’t consider myself a journalist. I consider myself a football guy. There’s a big difference in my mind.

“My cell is on every email that goes out (including this one) so if you still feel I haven’t heard you out properly, you may call and let me know. Good luck in your next venture and I hope your time out is short.”

He responded with this:

“Thank you for the clarification and response.  Look forward to meeting you at some point.  Take care.”

So here’s my point. This business, every business, is about wins and losses. That’s perhaps more true on the field than off, but there are still real-world consequences to what’s happening. Some people treat football, and sports in general, as mere entertainment and folly. Well, to some degree that’s true, but it’s much larger than that. I encourage you, as you go forward in this game, to treat others with the same respect you give the game itself. I promise it will pay dividends.

Here Today, Gone Tomorrow

08 Friday May 2015

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This week, on our Twitter page, we’ve broken several stories of scouts hired and fired. Let’s take a look at the potential downsides and risks of a career in evaluation.

It’s who you know: Unless your last name is the same as an NFL owner, you’ve got an uphill battle. Nepotism is rampant in personnel evaluation and team administration circles. If you don’t believe it, look at the front office page on a couple team websites (here’s one glaring example). With few exceptions, you’ll find that these jobs are not purely merit-based.

Beating the odds: Of course, not every NFL scout or high-level executive had a dad who worked in the league, but no two employment stories are the same. I remember asking an NFL GM once how a young person gets hired as a scouting assistant. His response: “Why? You know somebody?” It’s very strongly referral-based in most cases. On the other hand, the Titans, for example, ask applicants to pursue scouting assistant jobs through the HR department, which is a great way to make it fair and balanced but also makes it doubly hard to stand out. And once you make a team, it’s like you’re always on thin ice. I work with one young person who’s a scouting assistant in the league. We talk all the time about how tenuous his position is. He wants to climb the ladder, but he knows how lucky he is just to be on the ladder.

No backup plan: Lots of scouts build a 20-year career, then one day their boss gets fired, the team cleans house, and he’s on the street. Now this scout’s probably middle-aged and has spent almost his whole life watching football games and evaluating talent. That’s an extremely limited skill-set, and only 32 organizations in all the world are willing to pay a true living wage for it. This means you spend your whole life trying to get back in. I remember about five years ago I tracked down a scout that had landed a job as an assistant o-line coach at a small school after getting sacked the previous May. My idea was to pay him a couple bucks, maybe $50, to get his thoughts on any potential NFL prospects he saw that season. He laughed at me, and was pretty dismissive about it when I finally reached him. I mean, I looked at it as a chance to throw him an extra tank of gas or a bag of groceries in exchange for a helpful conversation. He was looking at it as me trying to exploit his life’s work for milk money. At the end of the day, he was still waiting for someone to ride in on a white horse and save him, restore him to the life (and job) he once knew. Five years later, that still hasn’t happened.

No scarcity: Maybe 20 years ago, being a scout was an incredibly popular idea for a young person. However, in the last 20 years, with the rise of fantasy football as well as the multiple scouting websites and analysts around, I’d guess the demand has doubled or tripled. Everyone feels he’s qualified, and can use all the buzzwords. Then there’s the proliferation of sports management programs at universities across the land, as well as some services that prey on young people, teaching them that there’s a certain certification they can earn that will enhance their chances.  All this means that young folks are tripping all over themselves, willing to work for free in many cases, for a chance to get aboard a team. They are probably far more qualified than ever before, but it’s still a numbers game.

Changing fortunes: Let’s say you work your way up to GM, and you start getting plaudits as a boy wonder. Or maybe you come from the right GM ‘tree’ or ‘family,’ and you are hired and attain instant success. Then your team misses the playoffs once or twice, maybe due to injuries or bad breaks, and suddenly your evaluation power is stripped from you. Where do you go from there? You don’t have the tools to prove yourself again, and you’re not doing the one thing that’s most rewarding in the business, so you either play out the string and try to hold onto what you have, or you resign and hope someone else is willing to give you another shot. Once again, very tenuous.

As I often say in this space, the rewards of working in football are great, and there’s nothing like pursuing your passion. Still, know the risks and the potential downsides.