The Benefit of the Doubt

28 Tuesday Oct 2014

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When you talk to a contract advisor about his draft class, you rarely hear him refer to them as anything other than ‘his kids.’ It’s a little strange to hear of 21- and 22-year-old men who could lift a car as ‘kids’ regularly, but that’s part of the game.

Now, if one of an agent’s clients is known to have had a series of legal missteps, or was suspended several times, or was kicked out of several schools, or is known to be less than admired by coaches on staff, expect to hear what a ‘great kid’ he is. The agent will usually go on and on about how the player was misunderstood, or how the coach(es) didn’t like him, or how he was a victim of terrible circumstances. I guess I’d do the same thing were I in their shoes, but it gets a little old.

Last year was a prime example. I had a marketing associate who had signed a player known as a big bag of trouble. I mean, even the most casual fan knew this ‘kid’ was bad news, but my friend insisted that the young man had seen the light. He didn’t run away from the young man’s troubles, to his credit — usually, an agent is well-rehearsed in dismissing any bad stories about a client — but he was adamant that it was all in the past.

Within the next week, the (a) marketing professional’s agency had spent a lot of money flying the player around and putting him up in fancy accommodations, (b) had set him up in top-rate (i.e., expensive) training, and (c) had seen him arrested on a drug offense, the most recent of several. Within another week or so, the agency had been fired by ‘the kid.’ I wish I could say I was surprised.

What I’m about to say is going to sound very cold and dismissive, but in this game, you can’t save the world. You’ll come across a lot of broken people who are phenomenal athletes in this business, and the idea of working with them can be tantalizing, but most of the time, they aren’t going to change.

By the time an extraordinary athlete has reached his 20s, he’s established a comfort zone, a behavior template that has never been corrected adequately (and that has probably been enabled everywhere he’s played). If you think you can turn that around, you’re crazy.

If you’re reading this blog because you want to be in the football business, I’m here to help, and I want you to succeed. But I also want you to have a happy life, and no one has time to beg to help someone. It’s OK to want to help, but set a boundary, and understand that you need to be able to walk when a line gets crossed.

 

The Season of Excitement

27 Monday Oct 2014

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Here are five reasons why this is the time of year to get excited about the business of football if you’re in the biz already, or aspire to be someday.

1. College recruiting is heating up: Many of the bigger agencies don’t get started talking to players in earnest until October, and sometimes even November and December. I know that goes against the grain of common belief, but it’s true. I’ve had representatives of several bigger firms asking pointed questions about players in the ’15 draft in the past week-and-a-half. It’s pretty clear they’re just getting started.

2. Trade deadline is this week: Football is way less exciting than baseball when it comes to the trade deadline, but every once in a while a legitimate player gets swapped. Will this be the year? We’ll know by close of business Tuesday.

3. New agent class is being published: As we’ve detailed in this space as well as our Twitter page, the contract advisors who passed the CBA exam this summer are being rolled out on the NFLPA’s website. At the same time, agents who’ve decided enough is enough are being pulled from the site. The entire new class has not been posted yet, and I know of several agents whose names are still posted though they didn’t pay their dues. But changes are coming.

4. NFL dreams get real: As I’ve chronicled in this space, over the last week I’ve begun to speak to several parents about how their sons can improve their NFL chances. In fact, I’m supposed to get a call from a parent in just a few minutes. That’s really common this time of year. I rarely, if ever, get these calls before October 1, and the lion’s share come in after Halloween.

5. Speculation about the No. 1 pick ramps up: As someone who tries to watch NFL draft buzz objectively, it’s always fascinating to see what player (usually a quarterback) the media appoints as the no-doubt top pick next spring. In the late fall of 2011 it was Matt Barkley (presuming he left after his junior year). In 2005, it was Matt Leinart of USC. Go back to 2008 and it was Brian Brohm of Louisville, and a year before, most tabbed Notre Dame’s Brady Quinn. Just last year, the lock was Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewater. As we know now, none of them was No. 1 overall, and most went toward the end of Round 1. Some (Barkley and Brohm) didn’t even go in the first round. Talk is cheap, especially talk about the NFL draft.

 

A tale of two dads

24 Friday Oct 2014

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As you know if you read this blog, I have a free newsletter detailing the pre-NFL draft process that I send at no charge to parents of NFL draft prospects. As a result, as I’ve promoted this, I’ve had a lot of conversations with fathers of players hoping to be drafted next spring.

Two dads I spoke to recently were polar opposites, one a perfect example of the way parents should be and one more closely resembling the way they (unfortunately) sometimes are.

We’ll start with the one that maybe doesn’t yet get it. He called because he wanted to interview me before consenting to receive the newsletter; his son is most likely strictly a camp guy, though I didn’t dare tell him that.

From the moment we started talking, I knew he was very skeptical that I had anything to offer. He’d ask a question and I’d answer it, followed by a long pause, as if he weren’t impressed and was looking for something more. At one point he asked how I got paid, even though I had already told him (over and over) that what we were discussing came with no obligations whatsoever. When I finally conceded that mine was a subscriber service, though that was completely separate from the newsletter, he chuckled. I guess he was looking for an apology for my running a for-profit service. But that’s not really what bothered me.

What bothered me was that when we were finishing things up, and I was trying to patiently reiterate what I had already told him — that though there was plenty of ‘draft information’ on the web, the data I was offering was tailor-made for him — he was pretty dismissive. “There’s lots of information on the Internet, and you can find anything,” he assured me. “The problem is finding out what’s reliable and what isn’t.”

We closed with him informing me that he’d talk to his son and that they would decide if the promise of my (free) newsletter was worth their time. I’m going to go ahead with my life rather than waiting for that call.

The other dad I spoke to has been a pleasure because he really ‘gets it.’ We spoke just this week for the first time, and before we did, I called around and did a little legwork on where his son stood as a prospect. As I feared, I got back that his son is a solid college player who probably figures as a late-rounder or perhaps priority free agent.

When we got to the part where I wanted to offer up the scouts’ opinion, I remember wincing as I began. How would he react? What would his response be? I was pleasantly surprised. “That’s pretty much what we expected,” he said. The rest of our conversation continued in that vein, with him asking detailed questions about the process and my opinion on a smart course of action. It was refreshing to speak to a parent who is invested in his son’s career, but clearly hasn’t put blinders on. He knows and values the opportunity that’s ahead for his son and realizes not to take it for granted.

Maybe that’s what makes me the most frustrated by the other father. As a father myself, I try to remember that the things that make my boys special to my wife and me are maybe not so rare. But the number of young men who’ve had a little college success and aspire to an NFL career is NOT rare. Not by a long shot.

Wherever you are in your career — parent of aspiring player, aspiring football professional, media, current NFL agent, whatever — be reasonable in your approach, and understand that the place you want to be isn’t assured. It will make things a lot easier as you hit bumps in the road.

(No) Help Wanted

23 Thursday Oct 2014

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It always amazes me how many people want to go it alone in life.

“He doesn’t know what he doesn’t know.” That’s a phrase that applies to so many people in this business. In the last week, I’ve spoken to two former NFL players whose sons will be in the coming draft class. I called them to offer a free newsletter I do for parents of potential draftees; it’s free and provided strictly for educational purposes, no strings attached. Both of them rejected my entreaties, one quite hostilely.

Today, two more people asked to be removed from the list, but neither had a football pedigree. In fact, one of them, who didn’t seem to understand that I was offering something that cost them nothing but helped them make more informed decisions, asked if I was soliciting advertising. I assured the person that I wasn’t. “Ok, in that case, I spoke to the guys here and they are not interested,” was the response. Does that make sense?

About a year ago, I reached out via Twitter to a newly certified agent, again offering a different newsletter series written specifically for new contract advisors. His response was something like, “what could you possibly tell me that I don’t already know?” This is a guy that is in a barren region of the country for NFL talent (the Pacific Northwest), who’s under 30, and who presumably doesn’t have unlimited resources, but he was quite defiant when I suggested there may be something he didn’t/doesn’t know.

In the financial realm, there are at least 2-3 people I talk to every year who want to tell me (several times in one phone conversation) how much money they have under management, which I guess they think will translate seamlessly into representing dozens of NFL clients.

Forgive my rant. I know that it’s hard to know who to trust in this business and I know I’m far from a household name/brand. Still, I believe you can be too cynical, too untrusting, in life. Especially when it comes to this business, if you have nothing to lose by taking a chance on someone, I think you should.

WSW: Selling a dream

22 Wednesday Oct 2014

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This Saturday, I got a text from an old friend. Though he’s one of my two best friends, we rarely talk unless he’s in an argument and needs someone to help him settle it. In fact, his exact text was, “Call if you have a chance. Need to settle an argument.” It was minutes until my son’s birthday party and I was rushing through Kroger picking up last-minute items, panicked and sweating with still several things to do on my list. So naturally I called back immediately.

Here was his conundrum. He’d been watching a game with friends and he’d gotten into an argument over how many college players arrive at school with NFL dreams/expectations. Ryan’s contention was that only about half entertained thoughts of playing on Sunday; his friend said it was more like 90 percent. Without hesitating, I told Ryan he’d lost his bet. Then I told him this story.

In the fall of 2010, I flew with a group to Phoenix. We were there for a news conference announcing the first-year Eastham Energy College All-Star Game, which would be played the following January. As part of our visit, we went to the football offices at Arizona State University. It was a lot of fun to meet then-head coach Dennis Erickson, but there’s one thing I remember most about that trip. It was the wall outside the coaches offices. It was about 30 feet long and 10 feet high, and had on it a long, floor-to-ceiling frame. Mounted within this frame, taking up the whole wall, were half-shells of all 32 NFL helmets, gleaming and ominous. Beneath each helmet was a list of every Sun Devil who had ever played for that team. There were several names beneath each one. It was incredibly impressive, and seemed to dominate the office. I immediately posted it on my Facebook page and remarked on what a difference it must make in recruiting.

I remember one of the first comments under this post was from one of my agent clients, and it was something to the effect of, ‘every school has this in its offices.’ That was a real epiphany to me. Here’s why.

I marketed ITL to schools pretty heavily in the mid-00s, and was met with a brick wall. I presumed that they didn’t need me because they already did extensive work schooling their players and their parents on the league, and how things work, and what their players’ chances of playing NFL football were, etc. Later, I found out my presumption was all wrong. In fact, most schools I come across are quite light on educating about the draft process. They tend to take a three-pronged approach: (1) Keep your focus on the field, (2) you don’t need to talk to an agent and they’re all bad news anyway, and (3) all that stuff will take care of itself if you’re good enough.

To me this is horribly irresponsible. Still, there’s a bigger issue. It’s one thing to brush off the NFL when players are on their way out the door, but quite another if schools are using it to get players in the door. Clearly, players who might not otherwise have thought they were NFL caliber are, at the least, being given that hope, that possibility, by schools.

I’m not sure I’m in favor of paying scholarship athletes a stipend, as has gained major traction in recent years. However, do remember that wall of helmets the next time a school official somewhere goes on and on about ‘protecting kids,’ the purity of college football, and the homespun appeal of amateur athletics.

Making friends and enemies

21 Tuesday Oct 2014

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October is always an interesting time for me because I spend much of it calling the parents of NFL draft prospects to offer my free newsletter. It’s a series that runs about six weeks and details the NFL draft process, and I launched it just last year. It was very well-received, so we’re rolling it out again this year.

Anyway, it takes me about two weeks to call all the names in my file of about 600 sets of parents. It’s a little bit of a logistical dilemma because we’re calling parents from sea to shining sea and involving every time zone. Whenever I do this, I realize I’m living the life my clients live every day. Though less and less recruiting involves calling someone out of the clear blue sky and proffering your services, being in the sports industry is all about making an introduction with three important traits: it’s brief, it impresses on the person that you are knowledgeable and worthy of knowing, and it makes you likeable. That’s hard to do, whether you’re knocking on someone’s door, calling their home phone number (not as many of those as there used to be), or any other forum where you’re communicating with someone in real-time and not sending a text or an email.

Today, I wanted to share a few notes and observations in hopes that the next time you’re in a ‘cold call’ situation you won’t feel so exposed.

  • So far, I’ve called the numbers of 349 sets of parents. I’ve probably made at least 100 more calls than that when you figure in the times I found two (sometimes three) numbers and tried both of them. I’ve got another 150 or so calls to make this week.
  • The longest period of time I spent calling folks was just under seven hours straight. That was a long seven hours.
  • The spiel I leave on voice mails is about a minute long. That’s probably a little longer than it should be.
  • Nine times I’ve called and they weren’t interested. I don’t know why, but that stings. I think there are two reasons you’d turn down free information: you’re afraid you’re getting sold something — I’m not — or the school has conditioned parents you to see all people not associated with the school as Ebola carriers.
  • So far I’ve been hung up on three times. Once I called, got cut off, then called right back and got hung up on. Turns out the first time I had been hung up on, too. I’m a slow learner.
  • I called one household last night and got the player’s father, who’s an ex-NFL player. He was pretty irate that I had called, and cut me off mid-pitch (though at least he didn’t hang up on me). It’s kinda funny because he played decades ago, and the game — and the draft process — have changed a LOT since he was going through. I guess he’ll have to learn on his own. Then again, maybe he won’t; his son’s not a hot prospect.
  • Sometimes I call and I’m greeted very warmly once they understand who I am and that I’m offering something informative and free. That’s always gratifying.
  • Seven times so far I’ve called and gotten a fax line. I usually stay on the line long enough to hear most of that weird noise the fax makes. I’m weird.

War Story Wednesday tomorrow. I’ve got something inspired by a phone call I got from an old friend this weekend. See you then.

Straining the draft a little more

20 Monday Oct 2014

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There seems to have been a significant amount of interest in Friday’s report examining the relative value and endurance of draft picks by round. With that in mind, we went back 10 years to look for more trends, this time sifting out by year.

  • If there’s a formula or trend for figuring out what percentage of a draft class drops off every year, I can’t find it.
  • I guess, in general, each draft class shrinks by about 10 percent annually, though that trend only really works for the first five years. After that, the proving seems to end and the veterans that have stayed through that long weeding-out process have more league stamina.
  • For example, 93 percent of the 2014 draft is active on 53-man rosters or practice squads, which is pretty standard. About 85 percent of the ’13 class is still around, while 75.1 percent of ’12 remains; 61.4 percent of 2011; 54.1 percent of ’10, and 42.6 percent of ’09.
  • After that, however, at that six-year mark, cuts curb sharply. For example, there’s only a 4.5 percent dropoff between 2009 (42.6 percent) and 2008 (38 percent). From there, we see a 10 percent drop again to ’07 (27.4), but there are actually more 2006 players still active (71 vs. 70, or 27.8 percent of ’06) from the ’06 class than from the ’07 class.
  • On Friday, we rolled out the teams that have the most picks still in the league. We feel it’s a good, objective way to measure which teams are able to locate the best talent that translates across team schemes, philosophies, etc. It’s just a way to find out who can locate good football players. The 49ers came out on top, so we went back five years (to the 2010 draft) to see which teams had the most players still active since then compared to the number of players they picked.
  • Once again, the Niners came out on top with 42 of their 48 picks since ’10 still active in the league, or 87.5 percent. That’s outstanding. Also picking exceptionally well since 2010 were the Broncos, Texans and Jets, all of them at 81 percent or better.
  • This probably explains why the Texans, despite cratering completely last year, have bounced right back to respectability this year, while the Niners and Broncos remain two of the league’s top franchises year in and year out. As for the Jets, it may be an indication that the team has performed at least marginally well the last 3-4 years despite, not because of, Rex Ryan.
  • The bottom of the barrel? It’s a good thing the Colts got Andrew Luck right and have had success finding bargains in undrafted free agency and other leagues. At 60 percent (21 of 35), they’re all alone on the bottom. Joining them in the bottom five are the Panthers (61.1), Redskins (61.9), Bills (64.3) and Eagles (64.6).

The 2014 NFL lineup and the draft

17 Friday Oct 2014

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After dissecting the makeup of the NFL’s rosters as of the opening week of 2014, let’s wrap things by looking at the lasting value of draft position.

  • It’s probably no surprise that there are more first-rounders in the league (276) than any other round. That’s about 50 more than there are second-rounders (228). Given how much money first-rounders are making, plus the stigma attached to a team that has to cut a first-rounder, it’s doubtful this will ever change.
  • In the old days, the marquee rounds were seen as the first three. However, in recent years, there’s a perception that the pool of likely draft successes actually goes four rounds deep. That’s borne out by the numbers this year. There are at least 200 players drafted in each of the first four rounds still active in the league, and there are actually more fourth-rounders (214) than third-rounders (201). What’s more, the difference between the number of fourth-rounders and second rounders (228) is minimal.
  • Speaking in round numbers, each of the first four rounds make up about 10 percent of the league (though first-rounders approach 13 percent), while the final three rounds are about seven percent of the league each.
  • Undrafted free agents, as we mentioned a week ago, make up about a third of the league.
  • Rounds 5-7 seem far more disposable. What’s especially interesting is that the number of each of the last three rounds still active is about the same. In fact, there are more seventh-rounders active in the league (158) than there are fifth-rounders (154). There are more sixth-rounders than either (164).
  • The Browns (36), Saints (37), Bucs (38) and Panthers (38) seem to the teams most open to undrafted free agents. On the other hand, the Falcons and Titans (50 each) put the most weight on drafted players.
  • What team drafted the most players still active in the league? It’s the 49ers, and by a wide margin, with 59. The Packers are No. 2 (54). Rounding out the top five, it’s the Steelers (53), Ravens (51) and Texans, Patriots and Seahawks, all tied with 49.
  • Who has the least? The Saints and Redskins are tied with bringing in the least amount of talent via draft with 32 each. The Bears have 33 draftees in the league, while the Bills have 34 and the Browns and Colts have 37 each.

Totals as of Sept. 2014

Team Total
San Francisco 49ers 59
Pittsburgh Steelers 56
Green Bay Packers 55
Houston Texans 51
Philadelphia Eagles 51
New England Patriots 50
Baltimore Ravens 49
Seattle Seahawks 49
Cincinnati Bengals 48
Dallas Cowboys 48
Miami Dolphins 48
New York Jets 47
Atlanta Falcons 46
Denver Broncos 46
Minnesota Vikings 44
Oakland Raiders 44
Jacksonville Jaguars 43
Tennessee Titans 43
Arizona Cardinals 42
Carolina Panthers 42
San Diego Chargers 42
Buffalo Bills 41
Detroit Lions 41
St. Louis Rams 41
Kansas City Chiefs 40
New York Giants 39
Cleveland Browns 36
Indianapolis Colts 36
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 36
Chicago Bears 33
Washington Redskins 32
New Orleans Saints 31

Inside the numbers: NFL high-schoolers from the states

16 Thursday Oct 2014

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We’ve spent a lot of time over the last week going inside the number of NFL players on rosters the opening week of the season. Today, let’s take a long look at high schools of active NFL players to see where most got their start on the gridiron.

Not surprisingly, we find that the Southeast is still the place where football players are bred, and the Northeast is the least, at least when it comes to HS-to-NFL talent.

  • Which state has the best high school football? Well, based on number of players sent to the NFL, it’s California, with 277 players in the league (based on Opening Week rosters). Florida is No. 2 with 255 players, while Texas is third with 242.
  • No other state has more than two hundred. Georgia is fourth with 125, while Ohio is fifth with 101.
  • The top six schools (California, Florida, Texas, Georgia, Ohio and Louisiana) produced 1,078 of the 2,186 active NFL players, or 49.3 percent. The remaining 44 states produced 1,086.
  • Top six states in NFL players per capita: Louisiana (returning champions), Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, Georgia. All SEC states.
  • You could probably win a lot of bets by asking people to guess which state produced the sixth-most players, just outside the top five. Though the Northeast isn’t necessarily known for football, it’s New Jersey with 71.
  • More on the lack of talent in the Northeast: New York is the third-most populous state, but is just 18th in the total number of NFL players with 40. It’s also seventh from the bottom in per capita NFL players.
  • Only one state has no NFL players. It’s Vermont.
  • North Dakota, New Mexico and Rhode Island have only one each. That’s as many as each of the countries of Ghana and Estonia have produced, and half as many as Germany and Great Britain.
  • Pennsylvania has a reputation for its high school football, and has produced a fair share of Hall of Fame quarterbacks, from Montana to Marino, but it’s barely in the top 10 with 65 players.
  • The Bayou State, Louisiana, is 25th in population, but sixth in NFL players (78).
  • Massachusetts is the 14th-most populous state, but has only produced 15 NFL players. That’s No. 32 among the states.

WSW: Finding (and missing) on Welker

15 Wednesday Oct 2014

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In the spring of 2011, I had a chance to sit down with former Cowboys scout Jim Hess for a lengthy interview. We talked about a number of topics related to scouting and the inner workings of NFL football, and it was a lot of fun both because Jim is a mentor to me (I call him one of my ‘uncles in the game’) and because he could discuss details of things and answer questions on issues like few can.

One of the topics we discussed was two players he had a chance to see during his days with the Cowboys, both undrafted wide receivers who went on to lengthy NFL careers: Miles Austin and Wes Welker. Jim really broke things down on how Welker slid through the draft, then bounced around before finding stardom with the Patriots.

Here’s a transcript of a portion of the interview:

“I don’t know as much about (ex-Cowboys, now-Browns WR) Miles Austin. He was also a free agent, but Miles had the measureables. He looks like a receiver, he’s gotten . . his frame’s filled out more, plus he had great speed and great explosion. He would be a guy, you would wonder, can we develop him? (Broncos WR) Wes Welker, I know a lot more about Wes because I personally scouted Wes. I had the Big 12, plus the Southwest and some overlapping areas, so I was at Wes Welker’s pro day.

“I don’t think Wes went to the combine, but I was at his pro day, and he didn’t look very good. He didn’t run very fast, and he’s not very big. Y’all have seen him on television, and he’s not very big. I didn’t really think I could sell him to Coach (Bill) Parcells, and I really didn’t try. I put a free agent grade on him . . . and in my write-up, in my summary, I said, ‘this guy could be a steal in the five, sixth or seventh round.’ Why? Well, he had produced. Totally produced everywhere he had been. Player of the Year in Oklahoma. All-American, or at least all-conference, at Texas Tech. Punt returner, kick returner, great hands and great quickness, but I knew Bill wouldn’t draft a guy like that. Not that small. And you have to admit, Welker, you didn’t hear of him in the pros until he got with the Patriots.

“Let me explain something to you there, too. Would you have ever heard of (NFL great) Brett Favre if it hadn’t been for (former Packers head coach) Mike Holmgren? Would you have ever heard of (NFL great) Joe Montana, if it hadn’t been for (former 49ers head coach) Bill Walsh? You can go on and on like that, and sometimes it’s just the luck of the draw and you get with the right team, the right system that knows how to utilize you. I believe Wes went to San Diego first, and nothing came out of that (Editor’s note: He went to camp with the Chargers, then spent two seasons with the Dolphins), but you can go on and on with players like that, and the league and just happened to be the marriage at the right time, and you can probably put Tony Romo in that category. Would it have been (quarterback) Tony Romo coming to the Cowboys without (former Cowboys QBs coach) Sean Payton being there? But you got a lot of that going on, but what you looked at with Wes, he had been successful at everything he’d done, and I didn’t have the guts to put a draftable grade on him, but I did in my write-up say, this might be a steal in the lower rounds. Now, when you get to the lower rounds, roll the dice, because I can’t tell. I’ll be honest. Maybe that’s one of my (weaknesses). . . I was a coach scouting, not a scout scouting.”