Tag Archives: NFL Scouting

War Story Wednesday: Trouble

29 Wednesday Oct 2014

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On Tuesday, I touched on the subject of players that just can’t be saved. Today, I want to expand on a story I glossed over in that post.

About a year ago, I was on the phone with Marco Marciano, who was then working with XL Sports Agency, which is based in Miami. Marco is not a certified contract advisor, but was part of XL’s recruiting team (Marco has since left XL). At any rate, Marco became a client after I had reported that former Oregon TE Colt Lyerla had signed with his then-firm.

Keep in mind that this was late October with many weeks of college football left to play, and Lyerla had departed from the team voluntarily and, obviously, in response to a pending suspension from the team. Already, people in draft circles knew Lyerla had unlimited physical ability but numerous struggles off the field. As I spoke to Marco, whom I like a great deal, I didn’t quite know what to say. Already, it was clear they had signed a troubled young man who would most likely not be willing, or able, to change. I wanted to warn Marco but didn’t know how, given the commitments already made.

Marco told me his agency had set Lyerla up to train with Tom Shaw in Orlando, Fla. Though Tom is not an ITL client, he is nonetheless very good in his field and also a pioneer in combine prep. As such, a normal training program would be costly, but Lyerla was going to be starting in October. That adds two months and several thousand dollars to his training package. And all this money would be spent on a player who would most surely not be drafted due to all his baggage, meaning his agency would be chasing that money for years.

As I recall, it was just days later that Lyerla had his first offseason arrest. Marco called me decrying the fact that they had not gotten him out of Eugene quickly enough, and that had they just gotten him on a plane to Orlando, it never would have happened. I didn’t know how to tell him that it didn’t look like it would have mattered where he was, that drugs were a major problem for him.

That was one of the last times I spoke to Marco, and also one of the last times XL Sports was still representing the former Duck. Just as I expected, Lyerla was dogged with several other problems last offseason, and in fact changed agencies twice in the space of six months, going from XL to Morgan Advisory Group to Elevate Sports, which reps him now. All three firms are reputable and able, even though Colt has not been.

Today, as then, Lyerla has tantalizing athletic ability, though he’s out for the season after experiencing a knee injury in camp. Due to his talent, he will not lack for suitors, either in the NFL or among agents. I hope he learns his lesson, though there are no guarantees. But I hope everyone who reads this and aspires to work in sports learns the lesson Marco and many others had to learn the hard way.

The Season of Excitement

27 Monday Oct 2014

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Here are five reasons why this is the time of year to get excited about the business of football if you’re in the biz already, or aspire to be someday.

1. College recruiting is heating up: Many of the bigger agencies don’t get started talking to players in earnest until October, and sometimes even November and December. I know that goes against the grain of common belief, but it’s true. I’ve had representatives of several bigger firms asking pointed questions about players in the ’15 draft in the past week-and-a-half. It’s pretty clear they’re just getting started.

2. Trade deadline is this week: Football is way less exciting than baseball when it comes to the trade deadline, but every once in a while a legitimate player gets swapped. Will this be the year? We’ll know by close of business Tuesday.

3. New agent class is being published: As we’ve detailed in this space as well as our Twitter page, the contract advisors who passed the CBA exam this summer are being rolled out on the NFLPA’s website. At the same time, agents who’ve decided enough is enough are being pulled from the site. The entire new class has not been posted yet, and I know of several agents whose names are still posted though they didn’t pay their dues. But changes are coming.

4. NFL dreams get real: As I’ve chronicled in this space, over the last week I’ve begun to speak to several parents about how their sons can improve their NFL chances. In fact, I’m supposed to get a call from a parent in just a few minutes. That’s really common this time of year. I rarely, if ever, get these calls before October 1, and the lion’s share come in after Halloween.

5. Speculation about the No. 1 pick ramps up: As someone who tries to watch NFL draft buzz objectively, it’s always fascinating to see what player (usually a quarterback) the media appoints as the no-doubt top pick next spring. In the late fall of 2011 it was Matt Barkley (presuming he left after his junior year). In 2005, it was Matt Leinart of USC. Go back to 2008 and it was Brian Brohm of Louisville, and a year before, most tabbed Notre Dame’s Brady Quinn. Just last year, the lock was Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewater. As we know now, none of them was No. 1 overall, and most went toward the end of Round 1. Some (Barkley and Brohm) didn’t even go in the first round. Talk is cheap, especially talk about the NFL draft.

 

Straining the draft a little more

20 Monday Oct 2014

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There seems to have been a significant amount of interest in Friday’s report examining the relative value and endurance of draft picks by round. With that in mind, we went back 10 years to look for more trends, this time sifting out by year.

  • If there’s a formula or trend for figuring out what percentage of a draft class drops off every year, I can’t find it.
  • I guess, in general, each draft class shrinks by about 10 percent annually, though that trend only really works for the first five years. After that, the proving seems to end and the veterans that have stayed through that long weeding-out process have more league stamina.
  • For example, 93 percent of the 2014 draft is active on 53-man rosters or practice squads, which is pretty standard. About 85 percent of the ’13 class is still around, while 75.1 percent of ’12 remains; 61.4 percent of 2011; 54.1 percent of ’10, and 42.6 percent of ’09.
  • After that, however, at that six-year mark, cuts curb sharply. For example, there’s only a 4.5 percent dropoff between 2009 (42.6 percent) and 2008 (38 percent). From there, we see a 10 percent drop again to ’07 (27.4), but there are actually more 2006 players still active (71 vs. 70, or 27.8 percent of ’06) from the ’06 class than from the ’07 class.
  • On Friday, we rolled out the teams that have the most picks still in the league. We feel it’s a good, objective way to measure which teams are able to locate the best talent that translates across team schemes, philosophies, etc. It’s just a way to find out who can locate good football players. The 49ers came out on top, so we went back five years (to the 2010 draft) to see which teams had the most players still active since then compared to the number of players they picked.
  • Once again, the Niners came out on top with 42 of their 48 picks since ’10 still active in the league, or 87.5 percent. That’s outstanding. Also picking exceptionally well since 2010 were the Broncos, Texans and Jets, all of them at 81 percent or better.
  • This probably explains why the Texans, despite cratering completely last year, have bounced right back to respectability this year, while the Niners and Broncos remain two of the league’s top franchises year in and year out. As for the Jets, it may be an indication that the team has performed at least marginally well the last 3-4 years despite, not because of, Rex Ryan.
  • The bottom of the barrel? It’s a good thing the Colts got Andrew Luck right and have had success finding bargains in undrafted free agency and other leagues. At 60 percent (21 of 35), they’re all alone on the bottom. Joining them in the bottom five are the Panthers (61.1), Redskins (61.9), Bills (64.3) and Eagles (64.6).

WSW: Finding (and missing) on Welker

15 Wednesday Oct 2014

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In the spring of 2011, I had a chance to sit down with former Cowboys scout Jim Hess for a lengthy interview. We talked about a number of topics related to scouting and the inner workings of NFL football, and it was a lot of fun both because Jim is a mentor to me (I call him one of my ‘uncles in the game’) and because he could discuss details of things and answer questions on issues like few can.

One of the topics we discussed was two players he had a chance to see during his days with the Cowboys, both undrafted wide receivers who went on to lengthy NFL careers: Miles Austin and Wes Welker. Jim really broke things down on how Welker slid through the draft, then bounced around before finding stardom with the Patriots.

Here’s a transcript of a portion of the interview:

“I don’t know as much about (ex-Cowboys, now-Browns WR) Miles Austin. He was also a free agent, but Miles had the measureables. He looks like a receiver, he’s gotten . . his frame’s filled out more, plus he had great speed and great explosion. He would be a guy, you would wonder, can we develop him? (Broncos WR) Wes Welker, I know a lot more about Wes because I personally scouted Wes. I had the Big 12, plus the Southwest and some overlapping areas, so I was at Wes Welker’s pro day.

“I don’t think Wes went to the combine, but I was at his pro day, and he didn’t look very good. He didn’t run very fast, and he’s not very big. Y’all have seen him on television, and he’s not very big. I didn’t really think I could sell him to Coach (Bill) Parcells, and I really didn’t try. I put a free agent grade on him . . . and in my write-up, in my summary, I said, ‘this guy could be a steal in the five, sixth or seventh round.’ Why? Well, he had produced. Totally produced everywhere he had been. Player of the Year in Oklahoma. All-American, or at least all-conference, at Texas Tech. Punt returner, kick returner, great hands and great quickness, but I knew Bill wouldn’t draft a guy like that. Not that small. And you have to admit, Welker, you didn’t hear of him in the pros until he got with the Patriots.

“Let me explain something to you there, too. Would you have ever heard of (NFL great) Brett Favre if it hadn’t been for (former Packers head coach) Mike Holmgren? Would you have ever heard of (NFL great) Joe Montana, if it hadn’t been for (former 49ers head coach) Bill Walsh? You can go on and on like that, and sometimes it’s just the luck of the draw and you get with the right team, the right system that knows how to utilize you. I believe Wes went to San Diego first, and nothing came out of that (Editor’s note: He went to camp with the Chargers, then spent two seasons with the Dolphins), but you can go on and on with players like that, and the league and just happened to be the marriage at the right time, and you can probably put Tony Romo in that category. Would it have been (quarterback) Tony Romo coming to the Cowboys without (former Cowboys QBs coach) Sean Payton being there? But you got a lot of that going on, but what you looked at with Wes, he had been successful at everything he’d done, and I didn’t have the guts to put a draftable grade on him, but I did in my write-up say, this might be a steal in the lower rounds. Now, when you get to the lower rounds, roll the dice, because I can’t tell. I’ll be honest. Maybe that’s one of my (weaknesses). . . I was a coach scouting, not a scout scouting.”

WSW: Patriot problems

08 Wednesday Oct 2014

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I was talking today to Brian Woods, commissioner of the first-year FXFL, about the kickoff of his new league and the start of play this weekend. In the course of our speaking, he proudly mentioned several recent signees that were with NFL teams this summer.

“We just signed Jeremy Gallon, who was out of Michigan and drafted by the Patriots this year,” Brian said. “In fact, we have two players the Patriots drafted this year in our league.”

That statement really gave me pause. The fact that both OG Jon Halapio (6/179) and Gallon (7/244) are not only ex-Patriots, but not even in the NFL anymore, was not lost on me. In fact, it reminded me of a conversation I had with an AFC Director of College Scouting at the combine this spring. He was discussing scouting in general, and mentioned that New England, despite the fact the Belichick brand is still one of the strongest in football, has failed to find talent the way it used to.

“Some of the players they took this spring we had as undrafted free agents,” he said. “I mean, in the fourth and fifth round, I had guys calling me saying, ‘can you believe the guy the Patriots just took?’ It’s been like that the last few seasons. It’s going to take a toll on them.”

You’ve probably read a lot about Tom Brady’s struggles this season, and in some quarters it’s become fashionable to ask if he’s done. But let’s look at the receivers the team has put on the field in the last 2-3 years. Just this week, the team cut Kenbrell Thompkins, a player they were starting last season. Aaron Dobson, a second-rounder in ’13, has been a healthy scratch several times this season. Meanwhile, though they’re carrying Josh Boyce (4/102/2013) on their practice squad, he’s far from a contributing member of their offense. Their 2012 seventh-round WR Jeremy Ebert is out of the league.

In the old days, the Pats were finding players like Deion Branch (2/65/2002) in the early rounds and Troy Brown (8/198/1993) in the latter rounds. Things have become so dire that they’re having to plug the holes in their receiving corps by signing castoffs from other teams like Danny Amendola and Brandon LaFell. In fairness, it’s rare that a team has a starting tight sent away on murder charges, and the injuries that have kept Rob Gronkowski off the field have been particularly damaging. 

Still, injuries are part of the game, and when you roll the dice on players flagged for character issues, those decisions could blow up in your face. It will be interesting to see if the Patriots’ scouting department can right the ship in time to give aging Brady one last shot at a title.

WSW: How an ex-NFL player got into scouting

01 Wednesday Oct 2014

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For today’s WSW, I ran down a few stories from ex-NFL defensive back (Seahawks, 1989-1993) and ex-NFL scout (Saints, 2000-2007) James Jefferson. He’s now a high school football coach in Texas. To watch my entire discussion with James, during which he talks about his experiences in scouting and the finer points of player evaluation, click here.

He said landing a job with the Saints came from his playing days in Seattle, when he’d developed a friendship with then-Seahawks Vice President of Football Operations Randy Mueller.

“Well, as it came about, I was finished playing ball, so I’d come back (to Kingsville, Texas, where James had gone to college) and wanted to get my degree and wanted to get into coaching. So I was back, and went to New Orleans to visit a buddy of mine. They had hired a new general manager at the time, and it was Randy Mueller, and I knew Randy very, very well. He was one of the reasons, as a player, that I went to Seattle, from Canada. And I just so happened to stop by the office, and didn’t get to see him but left my resume. We stayed in touch and what have you, and it got down to the last week, and they were ready to go, and he called me up and said, ‘Hey, are you really serious about doing this?’ I said, ‘Yeah, I really am, I like to learn.’ And I had kinda told him while I was playing ball that I wouldn’t mind getting in this business. I went out and interviewed and he gave me the job. It was a good deal.

“I was fortunate with Randy. Randy kinda trusted me and I really trusted him. He’s the type of guy that, he believed in what guys around him said. He really took to heart what guys around him said. He made that transition for me (from player to scout) very easy.”

I asked James if it’s different for scouts who, liked him, played in the NFL.

“Oh yeah, easily, especially with the guys who played (in the NFL). It was a brotherhood of scouts, and then inside that, you had a subculture brotherhood of scouts that played the game (on the NFL level), because you already have that anyway. Guys that played the game, there’s a select few that get that opportunity to play the game . . . and guys still respect that. When you got into that, you get in with those guys, and you had that big culture group, which is your scout group, then that subculture in the middle, that you either played (with) or played against them. It was pretty neat.”

I also asked him his thoughts on information-sharing between scouts. Where did team loyalty begin and camaraderie end?

“That was a fine line. That was a very, very fine line of how to do things. You’re told, certainly, you can’t let a lot of information out from your team, but at the same time, maybe it was a guy that could get information from a coach at the school that he knew that was in our area. We could kinda use that and work with that, without giving up any team secrets.

“It’s a very fine line and it’s really kinda hard to explain, I guess, but we’d talk, and I think there’s a line somewhere and you have to know where it is. Every team had one. Do I think that it made the some of the management guys a little nervous sometimes? Probably so, but they do the same thing. That’s just the nature of the business without giving up a lot of team secrets like who you’re drafting, or who you’re looking at. But all you have to do is pay attention. It’s kinda hard to hide anything these days. “

A new start

30 Tuesday Sep 2014

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I try to be encouraging in this space. On Monday, when I talked about knowing when to quit, though I was honest, maybe I wasn’t so encouraging. Today, here’s a bit more encouragement.

I work with four AFL teams. I help them locate players, find their contact info, identify their agents, etc. Finding players is not so hard, but finding good players can be quite challenging. So, one of the teams I work with is an expansion team going into Las Vegas next spring, and I have a friend who will not only be running personnel for the team (the Outlaws) but also helping coach, along with a number of other things. Pretty much, on the AFL side of football, “a number of other things” is always part of your job responsibilities.

So here’s his story. For the last three years, he was with an AFL team, handling personnel and working on the offensive side of the ball. However, his goal was to have a greater role in personnel and, best-case scenario, scout for an NFL team. Given his desire to reach his goals, he saved a bunch of money, then left the team he was working for after last season in an effort to ‘burn his ships’ and sink or swim. I helped him get his name in with a couple NFL teams this spring, but we both knew it wouldn’t be easy finding the right opportunity. Sometime this summer I lost track of him.

Anyway, this week, he contacted me to tell me of his new venture. Obviously, I was excited for him, and I can tell he’s really pumped up by this opportunity. I mean, the chance to launch something, to really put your imprint on a new team, is not only rare but super-cool. I’m psyched that (a) he’s back in the game, (b) we’re back in touch, and (c) he’s got a new, awesome opportunity.

So here’s my point. My friend knew he wanted a new opportunity, so he socked away his money and went for it. He didn’t get his No. 1 pick (working as an NFL scout) this time, but he did get something almost as good: the chance to have a foundation role with a new team.

First, pay your dues. Then, follow your dreams. Be smart about it, but do it. You won’t be sorry. It might not always happen the way you want it to, and you might not get the exact thing you want, but knowing you’re chasing the one thing you always wanted to do, well, there’s just nothing else like it.

Knowing when to quit

29 Monday Sep 2014

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This time of year is always bittersweet for me. On the one hand, lots of newly licensed NFLPA contract advisors are celebrating passing their exams and getting a chance to finally sink their teeth into their dreams. It’s fun to walk with them as they learn the ropes of a new business.

On the other hand, well, there’s this:

  • “I am . . . sitting here looking at the October insurance invoice for $1,400 due by October 1 praying for some guidance on which way to go. Decision time.”
  • “I don’t want to be a part of this culture/celebration of violence anymore. Thanks for all your help, I would have never made it as far as I did without you.”
  • “Just wanted to let you know that I have taken a job as an in-house lawyer with a company up here in Cleveland. They aren’t going to permit me to continue with the NFL stuff, which kinda sucks, but oh well.”
  • “It’s a bummer because we love it, but the opportunity cost is rough to ignore.”

It’s hard to hear this when you’ve worked alongside someone for a year or years, and they are closing the door on a chapter of their lives, however brief. However, I rarely if ever try to talk people out of this decision. Honestly, deep down, I’m often happy when I hear them say these things.

This business is hard, and it’s not for everyone. There are lots and lots of success stories, but there are far more that don’t end so well. If you’ve pursued a career as an NFL agent or tried to be an NFL scout, you’ve come to know and understand the sacrifices, financial and personal, that you’ll have to make. Anyone who takes an eyes-wide-open look at these sacrifices and decides it’s not for them is way better off than the ones who keep hoping for the best in the face of overwhelming odds.

It’s not that I’m saying you shouldn’t take chances. Far from it, in fact. It’s just that the mere fact of taking that faith leap to chase your dreams is a pretty considerable risk in itself, and measuring risk is part of life. Part of success is knowing when to quit and move on to another venture. Who can argue with someone when they’ve determined that they’ve given all they can give?

I often say that people only leave this business feet first — on their shields, so to speak — but it doesn’t have to be that way. I guess that’s my pitch, as a consultant in this business. Give it your very best effort, and I humbly feel that using ITL maximizes your chances for success. But if it’s not happening, and you’ve counted the cost, understand that there are other dreams you can pursue. There’s no shame in laying one dream down to chase another.

WSW: Finding Felder

25 Thursday Sep 2014

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We’re running a little late on War Story Wednesday, considering it’s Thursday, but I think you’ll like today’s story. It’s a good look at how players slide below the radar.

Bill Schwenk had only been in player representation a month when, during the 2011 season, he noticed a cornerback at Nicholls State in Thibodaux, La., named Bobby Felder. Felder had played alongside Nicholls St. CB Lardarius Webb, who went 3/88 to the Ravens in 2009. Webb and Schwenk had a mutual friend, and this friend insisted to Schwenk that Felder was a player.

Felder had compiled big-time stats during his college career, but no interest from agents and only minimal attention from scouts. Though Felder had logged 190 tackles in three years, along with five picks, eight passes broken up, 12 passes defensed, 49 tackles, two forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries and three blocked kicks during his senior season, he was missed.

How come? Maybe because Thibodaux is in swamp country in South Louisiana; Nicholls’ main claim to fame was that every summer it was home to Manning Passing Academy. However, it was by no means a football factory, having gone 01-10 in 2011 and 4-7 in 2010. The fact that the team went 1-10 his senior season didn’t do anything to help him create buzz. In addition, Felder wasn’t written up by either of the scouting combines, National and BLESTO, going into the season; of course, this was because the school didn’t bother to have a ‘junior day,’ the time when the combines come in to time, weigh and measure possible prospects. If a team were to find him, it would have to actually go to campus and check him out, or at least see him in a road game. It’s easy for a player to develop a rap as non-athletic when no one has a 40 time on him, and lack of speed at cornerback is the kiss of death.

It turns out that only three teams made it to Nicholls that season: Seattle, Oakland and Atlanta. Seemingly, none were all that impressed (though the Falcons met with Schwenk at the Senior Bowl to discuss Felder). Later, Bill asked a friendly scout why only three teams had made it to Thibodaux. “Honestly, they’re lazy!” was the response. The scout told Bill that because Felder played at lowly and remote Nicholls State, scouts knew few GMs would ask about the school or its players. That meant they could cut the school out of their route, and most did.

At any rate, Bill was a believer, and he continued to recruit Felder. He only got competition from one other agent, a veteran who heard of Felder very late and tried to get through to him through the cornerback’s brother-in-law. Bill staved off the older agent and signed Felder, but making believers of NFL teams wasn’t easy. That’s why he made a game film and started to send it out to teams.

One of the scouts who saw his film was Green Bay’s Alonzo Highsmith, who’s known in the business for his keen eye and excellent insights. Highsmith went directly to GM Ted Thompson and told him he had found a sleeper.

From there, word started to get out, and by the end of February, there was buzz around Felder. It reached such a fever pitch that when the school scheduled its pro day, many NFL scouts called to request that it be rescheduled to be held the day before LSU’s pro day so scouts could make both workouts. Alas, at his big day, he ran in the 4.6 range, turning most schools off. Only one team retained interest: Minnesota. The next day, Bill drove him to Baton Rouge to meet the Vikings’ scout and defensive backs coach after LSU’s pro day.

His chances mainly extinguished, the Vikings were the only team that called after the draft in April. Bill quickly signed Felder to a contract as an undrafted free agent, and the Colonel beat overwhelming odds and made the roster. Two years later, he’s still in the league with the Bills.

It’s just one more illustration that there are still sleepers, and scouts and agents who are willing to trust their instincts can find players in out-of-the-way places.

Guest speaker

23 Tuesday Sep 2014

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So tomorrow I’m honored to be speaking to members of the Sports and Entertainment Law Society at Thurgood Marshall School of Law at Texas Southern University from noon to 1 p.m. It’s going to be fun; it’s always nice to be among young, eager folks looking to get their foot in the door and build a profile in an exciting industry. I haven’t actually put together the nuts and bolts of what I’m going to tell them yet — I’ll be speaking about making a career in football — but here are the central themes whenever I speak to a similar group.

1. Think long and hard about whether or not you want to do this or not. The odds are long that you’ll succeed, and it may take years for you to see any real gratification from things. I remember during the first six or seven years of Inside the League I contemplated whether or not I’d made a mistake, and didn’t know if it was a service that really had a market, had legs. Finally there came light at the end of the tunnel, but it was a long time arriving. It took real stamina and lots of trial and error.

2. Understand that the career you set out for might not be the one you wind up with. When I launched ITL, I envisioned a service that was equal parts fan site and business site. I actually did mock drafts, rankings and the like, just like all the other websites, but didn’t realize that trying to do what others did was the surest path to failure. Maybe if I had really doubled down on that path I would have found success, but I’m convinced that what makes me different is what makes me successful(ish). I had to be willing to dump my old ideas and strike out in a different direction to really get traction. Good thing my wife offers good advice, and good thing I’m willing to listen to it.

3. Find a mentor, find competition, but don’t necessarily grade yourself strictly by others. Look, finding someone who will help you, who will open doors for you, who will share your vision and will encourage you when you need it is critical. It’s also good to find someone like you who’s having success so you can gauge your progress. However, realize that you are not a carbon copy of anyone else, and your success may come in spurts that don’t exactly mirror the success of others. Realize that if you’re truly dedicated to this business, there will be stops and starts. You have to be in it for the long haul.

So, these are some of the themes I’ll be emphasizing tomorrow. I see them as a common denominator for success in this corner of the world. Got other ideas? Let me know in the comments section. And if you’re in the neighborhood tomorrow, I hope to see you at TSU.