Wednesday night, I drove home from the Senior Bowl. It’s about seven-and-a-half hours on the road alone, which gives you a lot of time to think. One of the things I considered was the plight of the modern college all-star game, especially the Big Two, the East-West Shrine Bowl and the Senior Bowl.
Unlike the other all-star games, these two have the distinction of attracting Day 1 and Day 2 draft prospects. The big question is, how much longer can we expect top-100 players to even take part in all-star games? Consider:
- The national championship game featured two players who will be top-five picks (Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Miami’s Rueben Bain) along with three other players who might be Day 1 picks (Miami’s Francis Mauigoa and Akheem Mesidor in addition to Indiana’s Carter Smith). As you may know, the Hoosiers and Hurricanes each played 16 games. Sixteen! That’s almost a full NFL season. At some point, players need to take a break. What’s more, the teams that made it to the semis played 15 and the ones who got to the quarters played 14. That’s a lot of football for a lot of talented players who might say enough is enough.
- The national championship game next year will be Jan. 25, 2027. For comparison, the Shrine Bowl was played on Jan. 27 this year and the Senior Bowl will be played Jan. 31. That pretty much takes the players from the top two teams out of consideration for the top two games.
- As recently as 10 years ago, you’d see most NFL head coaches and GMs at the major all-star games. For a number of reasons, that’s just not the case anymore.
- It’s a really popular take to call the NFL Combine the “underwear Olympics,” but the fact is that pro days and workouts matter. The best prospects in the draft can’t risk running or jumping poorly. That week spent playing another game may be better spent focusing on the 40.
- In 2016, North Dakota State QB Carson Wentz used the Senior Bowl to vault into the conversation for the top pick, as I detail in my latest book. Almost a decade later, it’s probably true that another member of the Bison, OG Grey Zabel, went from a late Day 2 prospect to a first-rounder based on his play in Mobile. However, in the era of the transfer portal, the number of sub-FBS players in the top 100 is limited.
- There’s one more critical reason that no one wants to talk about: more and more, what we call “college football” is really pro football. When the better players are making more than a million dollars per season, it’s hard to convince them to prove themselves (for no pay) in an all-star format. It’s human nature.
I think the lower-tier all-star games can still make a convincing argument to players. More often than not, they’re attracting prospects who are just fighting to make sure they play in the NFL. The problem there is that those names don’t sell tickets or create ratings, which makes it hard to recoup the investment (stadium rental, flights, hotels, jerseys) that is necessary.
This is why we might be entering the post-all-star game era. It’s been such a successful model for so long, and frankly, covering the ins and outs of the invitation process, the people running the games, and the games themselves have been a big part of ITL for more than two decades. For this and many other reasons, I hope I’m wrong, but I fear I’m not.