Monthly Archives: March 2025

A Look Back at How The Pundits Viewed the ’23 and ’24 Drafts

28 Friday Mar 2025

Posted by in ITL, NFL draft

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Wow. We’re a month out from the 2025 NFL Draft already. Around here, that means we do our annual sweep of seven top mock draft services to see who’s rising and falling. It’s an interesting snapshot of the draft class, even if it’s far from scientific and doesn’t actually represent what the teams are thinking.

But how accurate are the pundits one month out? It’s a question we started asking ourselves, and there’s only one way to find out: by reviewing their work. So here’s a look at what the seven services we review (Pro Football Network, PFF, CBS’ Chris Trapasso, The Draft Scout, ESPN, The Athletic’s Dane Brugler and Walter Football) said about the last two draft classes.

2023 DRAFT

  • Top five predicted picks: CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State; Bryce Young, QB, Alabama; Will Anderson, DE, Alabama; Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida; and Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech.
  • Actual top five picks: Young, Stroud, Anderson, Richardson, then Illinois DC Devon Witherspoon to the Seahawks. Witherspoon’s average draft slot (ADS) was 14.4.
  • Biggest misses: All seven services had Kentucky QB Will Levis going in the first round, with an average draft slot of 7.85. Levis wound up going 2/33 to the Titans. Also, all seven services had Penn State DC Joey Porter Jr. going in the first round (ADS 19.0), but he slid to the first pick of the second round.
  • Other surprises: Texas OH Bijan Robinson went 1/8 to the Falcons despite an ADS of 17.1, though, in fairness, we’ve learned the Falcons often go against the grain. Also, Georgia OB Nolan Smith went 1/30 to the Eagles despite an ADS of 17.5.
  • Kudos: Only Trapasso had Mississippi State DC Emmanuel Forbes going in the first round a month before the draft; he had Forbes at 1/24 (he went 1/16 to the Commanders). Also, only two services (PFF and The Draft Scout’s Matt Miller) had Kansas St. DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah in the first round, and both nailed his draft slot (31). Further hats off to PFF for sticking with the prediction and nailing the pick a week before the draft (Miller had abandoned Anudike-Uzomah as a Day 1 selection by then).

2024 DRAFT

  • Top five predicted picks: USC QB Caleb Williams; LSU QB Jayden Daniels; North Carolina QB Drake Maye; Ohio State WO Marvin Harrison Jr.; and Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy.
  • Actual top five picks: Williams, Daniels, Maye, Harrison and Notre Dame OT Joe Alt.
  • Biggest misses: All 22 players predicted to go in Round 1 actually did, so congratulations are in order. On the other hand, not one service, over the course of seven different mocks lasting from June until the week before the draft, ever identified Florida WO Ricky Pearsall (1/31, 49ers) as a first-rounder. Also worth noting: a week before the draft, no one saw South Carolina WO Xavier Legette (1/32, Panthers) as a first-rounder.
  • Other surprises: Things were a little bumpy for Pro Football Network, which was the only service to leave Texas DT Byron Murphy (1/16, Seahawks) off its first-round mock. Similarly, Walter Football was the only site to overlook Duke OT Graham Barton (1/26, Bucs) and CBS’ Trapasso was the only one who snubbed Oklahoma OT Tyler Guyton (1/29, Cowboys).
  • Kudos: ESPN’s Matt Miller (12) and Walter Football (13) were the only two services that saw Oregon QB Bo Nix (1/12, Broncos) as a Day 1 pick. Miller’s website, The Draft Scout, stuck with the prediction on Nix a week before the draft and nailed it, as did Walter Football (Trapasso had him at 15 a week before the draft; no other services saw him as a Day 1 selection). Also, only Pro Football Network (13) and Brugler (21) had Washington QB Michael Penix as a first-rounder; he went 1/8 to the Falcons.

We’ll take a look at how everyone did a week out from the draft in a few weeks. Obviously, judging draft services based on such a limited sample size does nothing to really gauge who’s best. But it’s fun, right?

For a look at which players all seven services a month before this spring’s draft, make sure to register for the Friday Wrap, which comes out this evening. Do that here.

Here’s My Advice to NFL Scouts Seeking College GM Jobs

21 Friday Mar 2025

Posted by in Getting started, NIL, Scouts, Transfer portal

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It started during all-star season, when a few scouting friends told me to keep them in mind if I heard of any college GM openings. It’s gotten busier lately as friends at two P4 schools asked for recommendations on filling a few openings. The pro-to-college pipeline is roaring, and it’s definitely got people on both sides of the divide talking.

It got me thinking about what kind of advice I’d give an NFL scout seeking to make the transition to college. Here are a few things to think about.

G5 schools are looking to hire people with high school contacts; P4 schools are seeking candidates with NFL ties: This should be fairly obvious. Though the bigger schools want to tout their NFL bona fides in the race to attract portal talent, mid-majors are still trying to develop high school talent. For that reason, it’s going to be harder to land jobs in the smaller conferences. Plan accordingly.

You better be relational: It’s not that scouts don’t want to talk to agents, or that they think they’re better than them or whatever. At the end of the day, however, being a good scout lends itself to independence and self-motivation. However, you’ve got to step outside your comfort zone, regularly, if you want to work in the college space, especially if most of your experience is in pro football.

Connections with agents are a plus: We filled the room with schools at our symposium on the Friday of the NFL Combine. I felt like we put together a good program, but there’s one reason why so many schools were represented. It’s because we had almost every major NIL agency represented there.

Have a decent understanding of the bigger financial picture: I get it. That’s not your problem. But you better understand that big-money hedge funds and deep-pocketed investors are moving into college football as they hope to get a piece of a school’s athletic department before the school makes a move to a major conference or lands a fat broadcast deal. Everything is changing so quickly that you risk professional suicide if you don’t see where things are going.

Don’t try to break the bank: Scout salaries are rising (slightly), but nowhere near the way they’re rising on the college side. I know the headlines promise lucrative salaries instantly, but if I’m an NFL scout who doesn’t have a clear path to GM in the NFL, I’d be willing to take one step back financially to take two forward, given the trends.

Get representation: The trend among scouts is to not seek an agent until you get to the director level. I think it’s wise to get an earlier start these days. It just gives you one more set of ears, and more often than not, these jobs get filled before they are even widely known as being available.

Don’t run away from a background in coaching: We are seeing fewer scouts who’ve been coaches over the past decade-plus. However, if you’re a scout who’s spent time on the field, I think the transition will be easier to the college game, where scouts do a lot more than just evaluating.

Three Emerging Football Trends I Could See

14 Friday Mar 2025

Posted by in Media, NIL, Scouts, Transfer portal

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Between the NFL Combine, my reading of a book called The Price, and conversations with people across college and pro football over the last two weeks, I’ve been doing a lot of thinking.

Here are three ideas that are coalescing in my head these days. I think they all could shift the direction of college and pro football over the next decade. Here goes . . . .

Fundraising, not player evaluation, will be football-playing schools’ highest responsibility: This week, UNLV’s athletic director admitted he hired a head coach without knowing how he’s going to pay him (before walking things back once it set off an Internet firestorm). That’s shocking. We’re seeing lots of GMs being hired lately with backgrounds in NFL scouting, but with donor fatigue at all-time highs, schools better have a plan for raising money.

The NFL will go from a partner of college football to a rival: Will the new enforcement rules begin to limit the money paid out to athletes for name, image and likeness? Will we see more collectives come under the roof of the school, like Colorado and UCF have done? I don’t know, and even if they do, I don’t know if that will curtail spending. Bottom line, college football is becoming more and more professional-looking, and you can’t deny the excellent quality of play. At some point, the dollars have to become limited, don’t they? Ultimately, college football teams don’t really need the NFL. Could college and pro football become contentious with each other? I don’t know. It’s possible.

Scouting will continue to become centralized: This week, the Rams, who were voted winners of the Best Draft Award for their work last April, announced new roles and titles for a dozen scouting staffers. Their new lineup includes six (6!) senior personnel executives — this title wasn’t even being used across the NFL until maybe five years ago — and one (1!) area scout. Does this mean they’re sending out one guy to make school visits in all 50 states? Of course not. However, it’s undeniable that (a) they are doing things differently and (b) they are having great success. We also learned this week that the Jaguars (with a new head coach and GM with Rams roots) will not hold a local pro day at team HQ next month. That’s another departure from most teams, but not the Rams, who never have one. If Jacksonville starts having success, other teams will start copying The Rams Way when it comes to the draft. That’s going to be a significant shift.

There’s a good reason to believe I’m crazy, and maybe none of these ideas will get traction. I really hope I’m wrong — maybe in five years, people will look at this post and laugh — but I fear I’m right. More discussion about the game is in today’s Friday Wrap. Register for it here.

Here’s What I Think I Know About NIL with (Possible) Settlement Approval a Month Away

07 Friday Mar 2025

Posted by in NIL, Transfer portal

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As of today, we are exactly a month from the expected (hoped-for?) approval of the House settlement which will determine, once and for all, how schools will proceed with name/image/likeness payments and management for college athletes. The question I’m grappling with is, just how much certainty does it provide?

I spent last Friday in a room with about 300 people who are highly invested in the NIL space — college GMs (P4 and G5), top NIL agents and firms, the wealth managers that represent many of the players, thought leaders and others. My co-host (CJ Cavazos of CJ Recruiting and NIL) and I asked two separate panels of college GMs some tough questions on what’s ahead, and while it was helpful, we only had 90 minutes. We probably could have used at least another 90, but that wasn’t possible. We didn’t record the proceedings, but in case you missed it, here’s a taste of what took place.

As I try to digest everything said and heard last week, there’s still a lot I don’t understand. I’m certainly not an attorney, and frankly, my interests apply only to football. With that said, here’s what I believe to be true regarding what’s going to happen in a month (pending approval April 7 by Judge Claudia Wilken).

  • The limit for revenue-sharing is $20.5 million. This money is independent of collectives and will be spent by the schools themselves.
  • The $20.5 million total represents an estimated 22 percent of what a garden variety football-playing school generates in revenue from its athletics program.
  • The lion’s share of the $20.5 million (77 percent, by most accounts) will go to football players. I’m struggling to find an exact percentage anywhere, but I don’t think anyone would be compelled to hold to that number anyway.
  • Teams have to generate their own $20.5 million; the money is not coming from the House settlement.
  • Even if they don’t have $20.5 million, they must dole out the money in the same ratio that everyone has agreed upon for revenue-sharing, that is, if they are participating in revenue-sharing. They are not obligated to do that. This is just a proposed way of spending the money. Most P4 schools seem willing to hold to that, at least initially, as a hedge against litigation.
  • Football teams will be held to 105-man rosters. These will be the only players allowed to participate in revenue-sharing.
  • Title IX applies to scholarships, but it does not apply to NIL money. Yet. There’s litigation in the pipeline that might change that.
  • Collectives are not governed by any of this. A school’s collective can raise and spend whatever it wants to.
  • There is no governing body that will call balls and strikes. In a perfect world, the NCAA would do this, but it does not appear to have that capability, and no one else does, either. Basically, it’s an honor system, and will rely on peer pressure from other schools to comply.
  • Through a clearinghouse, Deloitte will establish market value for any NIL deal over $600, and if judged to be out of whack, Deloitte will say so. There’s an arbitration process, and a player could lose eligibility if he signs a deal that’s judged to be not fair market value, but this seems ripe for litigation, as well. Furthermore, it seems unclear, at least to me, what compels a player, agent or team to send a completed NIL deal in to the clearinghouse.
  • There is no standard contract for NIL payments to players (akin to the wage scale the NFL has adopted based on accrued seasons, etc.) because there is no collective bargaining agreement. As such, there is no reason a team couldn’t commit all or most of its football allotment to one player, technically (again, the team and player might face punishment from Deloitte/the NCAA, but then again, maybe not). It also means terms of a contract can be ripped up at any time and rewritten if both parties (school and player) agree.
  • Presuming it’s approved by Judge Wilken, this will all become “the law” on July 1, when the 2025-26 academic year begins across the land.

More on these observations and what they all mean are in today’s Friday Wrap, which comes out at 7:30 p.m. EST today. I hope you’ll check it out. Not registered yet? Sign up here.