Category Archives: ITL

Building a Network

08 Friday Mar 2019

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At Inside the League, we encourage people that want to work in the football business to get their knowledge from volunteering, building relationships and soaking up football any way you can. On the other hand, we don’t encourage trying to get it from a classroom. You have to go where football people go, shake as many hands as you can, and even pass out business cards to anyone that will take them.

Of course, you have to start by going where football people go, and the NFL Combine in Indianapolis is obviously one of those places. Here’s a look at some of the people you could have met if you were at the XFL Hospitality Room (Suite 125 of the Indiana Convention Center) last week (and oh, by the way, we had free sandwiches, too):

  • Craig Redd: Craig is the co-founder of the College Gridiron Showcase, a game I serve as a partner. I’ve spoken in the past about the high regard I have for everyone associated with the game, and that goes especially for Craig and his co-founder, Jose Jefferson. But the most important thing to know is that all-star games are always looking for volunteers, and we can even offer college credit for the work done there. If you were in Indy last week, he’s a key contact you could make. Craig is incredibly friendly and accessible, and always looking for good workers.
  • Doug Whaley: You might think that the Senior V.P. of Football Operations for the XFL, a former NFL GM (Buffalo), would be far too busy for ordinary people. After all, he’s building a new league from scratch. However, I’ve known Doug for about a year, and he’s always treated me as an equal. Doug is the kind of person who sees everyone as having something to offer. If you’re looking to get into scouting, you should know that XFL teams won’t have a full scouting department, and will follow more of a college football model. That means if you aspire to be a scout someday, here’s your shot at volunteering in evaluation. You could have gotten started on that if you were at our suite last week.
  • Kevin Dunn: Kevin owns TEST Football Academy in New Jersey, and besides being the sponsor of our suite and a longtime friend, he’s a perfect example of a guy who built a sports practice from the ground up. Most everyone I know who’s got a combine prep facility in the north is struggling, but Kevin isn’t. Not only did he approach me months ago about sponsoring our suite, but he’s also got stacks of sponsors and a full gym. That’s a real accomplishment in a business as difficult to navigate as football is these days.
  • Ric Serritella: Not only is Ric connected in the football world; not only is he a noted NFL Draft expert; and not only is he incredibly talented when it comes to video production, but he’s incredibly friendly. And like Craig, Doug and Kevin, he’s not too big to talk to people just getting started out in the business.

If you weren’t in Indy this year, make plans to be there next year. If you read this blog, and you’re serious about working in the business, you need to get serious about being where opportunities are.

Want to learn even more? Don’t forget to register for our weekly newsletter, the Friday Wrap. You can do that here.

The ITL Scouting Dept. Looks at a Few Early-Entry NFL Draft Prospects

04 Friday Jan 2019

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At Inside the League, we work with people across the football spectrum and provide a number of services. One of them is providing reports written by former NFL scouts to agents, parents, wealth managers, schools and others interested in finding out what professionals really think about draft prospects.

This year, we used Blake Beddingfield (Titans), Ryan Hollern (Bills, Saints), Matt Jansen (Texans, Ravens), Bob Morris (Browns, 49ers) and Josh Washburn (Titans) to write our reports. Now that college football is all but over and dozens of underclassmen are declaring for the draft by the day, we wanted to take a look at which players are making good decisions and which ones maybe aren’t.

Here are eight players that have already thrown their hat in the ’19 ring, or who are expected to, and what they might expect in late April, based on what our scouts saw.

  • Clifton Duck, DC, Appalachian St.: Writing about him before the season, our scout wrote that he’s a “late-round draft choice or PFA if he decides to enter the draft” after 2018. 
  • Joe Giles-Harris, OB, Duke: A solid player who should be a blue-collar NFL player who contributes in sub packages and on special teams. “Lots to like but I don’t see a high ceiling athletically, which caps his draft value,” our report reads. He has third-round possibilities but probably figures more in the fifth round.
  • Trysten Hill, DT, Central Florida: Though we see him as a fifth-rounder, there is something strange going on here. “This kid started 26 games prior to the 2018 season, but is a non-starter and rotational player now?,” asked our scout. “Possibly correlates with new staff, but he clearly is better than starters and the players he rotates with. (Teams) must know the reason” before they draft him.
  • Elijah Holyfield, OH, Georgia: Holyfield has submitted his name to the draft review board, but he’s not likely to get good news. “I view him as more of a two-down back, with upside in the inside run game whether zone or gap scheme, but not a three-down RB,” wrote our scout. “I wouldn’t recommend him leaving early.” If he does, he’s probably a fifth-rounder.
  • Josh Jacobs, OH, Alabama: Jacobs doesn’t get the big headlines because he’s part of a job-share in the ‘Bama backfield, so maybe he blossoms into something special on the next level. On the other hand, our scout wrote “I view him as well-rounded and a really good all-three-down depth player and serviceable starter, but not an elite-type player.” He’s probably a fourth-rounder.
  • Dax Raymond, TE, Utah St.: This is another player who’s mostly unknown, but who could win fans over the next four months. “Needs to get stronger, and needs work on some lower-body strength to help with contested balls,” wrote our scout, but “I like his upside.” Fourth round maybe, fifth round probably.
  • Saivion Smith, DC, Alabama: If he chooses to come out — we’re hearing that Smith’s leaning toward staying — he could be a second-rounder. “Will be a backup and special teams player in Year 1, but can be a starter in Year 2,” our scout wrote.
  • Preston Williams, WO, Colorado St.: Our scout wrote that he sees him “as a solid possession-type WR with size/length who can operate in the slot” and who is reminiscent of former Saints great Marques Colston. We see him as a third- or fourth-rounder.

Want a few more looks at juniors as evaluated by former NFL scouts? We’ve got forecasts for seven more players — Iowa St. WO Hakeem Butler, Stanford OG Nate Herbig, Duke QB Daniel Jones, Mississippi TE Dawson Knox, Oregon WO Dillon Mitchell, Alabama TE Irv Smith Jr. and Vanderbilt DC Joejuan Williams — in our Friday Wrap (here’s last week’s). Thousands of people across the football business read it every week. You should, too! Register here.

 

Introducing Our New Book, Moving the Chains: A Parent’s Guide to the NFL Draft

09 Friday Nov 2018

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Today’s a day that’s been years in the making.

When you get into the business of helping people succeed in football, you get a grass-roots understanding of the problems they face. When I launched Inside the League in 2002, the idea was to root out and expose the bad agents in the business as well as cracking the scouting code and figuring out why some players make it to the NFL and others don’t. We’re pretty much 0-for-2 on those goals, but there’s something we have gotten pretty good at: helping parents and their sons negotiate the obstacles of the NFL Draft process.

The parents of players like Giants DE Connor Barwin (2/46, Texans, 2009), Cardinals WO Christian Kirk (2/47, Cardinals, 2018), Dolphins OC Travis Swanson (3/76, Lions, 2014), Jaguars DT Taven Bryan (1/29, Jaguars, 2018), Redskins OT Morgan Moses (3/66, Redskins, 2014) and many more have read our newsletter during the run-up to their sons’ respective selections in the draft. Many of them have been kind enough to give us testimonials.

I think they’ve found our series helpful because it breaks down what NFL scouts do, how all-star games work, what you should expect from an agent, who gets invited to the NFL Combine, and a number of other topics. You can get an overview of our series here. For five years now, we’ve cold-called the parents of rising seniors and pitched them on our free newsletter. We’ve gotten some interesting responses for sure, but enough people took us up on our offer that we’re still reaching out to parents even today.

However, there’s more to the topic than can be covered in four weeks, so we expanded our newsletter into a book, and today, we introduce Moving the Chains: A Parent’s Guide to the NFL Draft. If you’ve read our newsletter, the first quarter of the book will look very familiar to you. However, in the rest of the book, we develop all the things we touch on and really tell stories, provide numbers, and share nuggets that we just can’t provide within the bounds of a newsletter series.

Maybe you’re the parent of a young man who will be eligible in this or a coming draft cycle. Maybe you’re an aspiring NFL player who’s still a few years away, or you’re close to someone who is. Maybe you hope to be an agent someday, or you’re a college student majoring in sport management and thinking hard about being a contract advisor or scout. My book is something you should read. We go inside the process in a way that I always sought before I launched my site. And believe me, all of this matters. You can learn it the hard way, but why would you?

Here’s the best part. It’s just $12.95. It’s about the cost of a burger and fries at your favorite fast-food joint, or a piece of pie at one of those fancy dessert places.

Here’s the next-best part. It’s only 150 pages. You can read it in a couple hours. I mean, come on, it’s football. Our idea of a big word is “substantial” or “Indianapolis.” You can handle it. If your wacko uncle starts going off about politics at the Thanksgiving table, you can excuse yourself, read our book, and by the time you’re done, he’ll be sleeping off the turkey. You’ll be all set.

Want to learn more? We’ll talk about it more in today’s Friday Wrap, which comes out at 7:30 p.m. EST. It’s free, and you can register for it here.

Who Did The Best In The ’18 NFL Draft? Here Are Five Candidates

02 Friday Nov 2018

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Last year, we asked the question, why doesn’t anyone reward the team with the best NFL draft class? When we couldn’t come up with an answer, we decided to step up and do it ourselves. After holding a vote with only current and former NFL scouts voting, we presented the New Orleans Saints with the first-ever ITL Best NFL Draft Class Award for 2017 at our annual combine seminar.

We’ll do it again in February at our 10th annual seminar. But who will voters choose? It’s still too early to tell, but since we’re at midseason, it’s time to take a look at the possible finalists for the award. Here’s who we’re considering with half the season left to go, in no particular order.

  • Browns: It’s been an up-and-down season for the top pick in the draft, but QB Baker Mayfield deserves the benefit of the doubt so far. At worst, he seems to give Cleveland a passer the team can build around. Meanwhile, DC Denzel Ward looks like a keeper, as well, and we’ll know more about OH Nick Chubb by the end of the season as the team shipped out OH Carlos Hyde a week and a half ago. WO Antonio Callaway has provided glimpses of ability, too, as has OB Genard Avery.  Right now, the Browns look like the early leaders for best draft.
  • Colts: First-round OG Quenton Nelson has been solid, but the real find so far has been OB Darius Leonard, a true difference-maker the Colts found in the second round out of South Carolina State. The team also found a starter at right tackle, Braden Smith, one pick later, and fourth-round OH Nyheim Hines has been a threat as a rusher and a receiver.
  • Giants: Running back Saquon Barkley has been as-advertised, an undeniable talent and the leader in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race. Also, DT B.J. Hill looks like a building block, or at least part of the solution on defense. As for the rest of the team’s draft class, the grade has to be ‘incomplete.’ Guard Will Hernandez is learning on the job for a weak offensive line but there’s hope he’ll come away from the season as a bright spot. We may find out sooner rather than later what the team has in QB Kyle Lauletta, though there’s plenty of uncertainty surrounding DT R.J. McIntosh.
  • Broncos: Denver struck it rich twice, once in the first round with DE Bradley Chubb and once after the draft, when it landed UDFA OH Phillip Lindsay. We could see a lot more of WO Courtland Sutton in the second half with fellow receiver Demaryius Thomas now in Houston, so their draft could look even better in the second half.
  • Jets: So far, QB Sam Darnold has had his problems, but he’s the starter, no questions asked, so presuming he stays healthy, he’s got a chance to learn from his mistakes and make the Jets’ draft class look really good. In non-franchise QB news, the Jets also got a starter on the DL in the third round (DT Nate Shepherd) and fourth-round TE Chris Herndon is tied for the team lead in receiving TDs with three.

There are several other teams that could edge their way into the top five, and we’ll look at five more of them today in the Friday Wrap.

Not registered for it? Why not? It’s free, it comes out at 7:30 p.m. ET every week, and if you’re into the football business, we promise you’ll find it to be a good read. Register here, and check out last week’s edition here.

NFL Draft Analysis: Is It Mostly Good or Bad to Skip Your Senior Year?

12 Friday Oct 2018

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At Inside the League, we’re always interested in looking at the draft in ways others don’t. With half the college season wrapping up after this weekend, this week, we thought we’d look at the true juniors, redshirt juniors and redshirt sophomores that might be thinking of passing up their respective seasons.

We hear a lot about the poor decisions so many players make in leaving early, and how the number of early entries is inclining steadily. The NFL puts a lot of resources into educating players on their pro chances, yet still, the perception is that countless players are throwing away their college careers to chase wild dreams, often egged on by unscrupulous agents.

Based on our look at the numbers, that perception doesn’t match reality. Do players who leave early blow their chances of getting to the league? For the most part, no. Consider.

  • About one in seven players who leave early (15.5 percent) won’t make a 53-man roster or practice squad at all. Looking at those numbers as half-full, rather than half-empty, just over 84 percent will make an NFL team, at least for a little while.
  • Numbers aren’t available on what percentage, on average, doesn’t even make it to an NFL camp, but I’d estimate it’s about half of that. Again, turning the numbers to half-full, I’d estimate that more than 90 percent of those leaving early at least make it into a camp.
  • Would another year in college have made any difference? It’s impossible to tell. What percentage of those players left school with eligibility remaining, but already had a degree? Those are also numbers we don’t have.
  • More on education and degree completion: it’s worth noting that most often, offensive linemen make it furthest in their coursework because they redshirt their first seasons. However, of the 87 players in the last five years who left early but never made it to the regular season, just six were offensive linemen.
  • More on the players that never made it to the regular season: 26 of 87 (about 30 percent) were from FCS-or-smaller schools, which statistically only make up about nine percent of the league anyway. If you’re leaving early for the NFL and you didn’t play FBS, it’s like having to notch a hole in one for the chance to make a half-court shot. The odds aren’t good.

At the end of the day, if you’re a player who feels he’s had a good season, is ready for the league, and has explored all his options and submitted his name for review with the NFL, I don’t think it’s a completely outrageous idea. After all, the NFL can be a very fickle organization, and your chances this time next year are not automatically as good as they are this year, especially when you figure in the chance of injury.

At the same time, before you make any decisions, we recommend you look at the hard numbers, which you can do here (with an ITL account, that is; sorry).

One question we’ve avoided entirely in this space is, what are the statistical chances a player who leaves early gets drafted? We take a long look at that in this week’s Friday Wrap, analyzing our statistical breakdown, which is presented here (sorry, it’s an ITL link again).

Make sure to check out our full look at early entries, where they wind up, and why in today’s Friday Wrap. You can register for it here.

Tips from 2018 NFLPA Test-Takers

17 Tuesday Jul 2018

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One of the keys to success in any venture is listening to those who’ve gone on before you. With that in mind, every year, we interview ITL clients coming off their respective rookie years in the business. We ask them several questions, but one is always the same: ‘What was your take on the NFLPA exam?’

Since we’re about 24 hours from the next agent class touching down in Washington, D.C., and about 72 from the exam, I thought I’d provide an overview of what this year’s rookie class said about the test. I should note that every agent we interviewed is not only a member of ITL, but also has at least one player on an NFL roster in their first year. Only about one in four rookie agents do that every year, so they’re in impressive company.

Respect the test: I would say this is the main reason some pass and some don’t. Most people hear “open book,” “multiple choice” and “graded on a curve” and laugh it off. Maybe that was good enough before 2016, but especially since the test was made harder, it’s not true anymore. Mobile, Ala.-based Alexa Stabler said she saw people who came to D.C. underestimating the test. “I don’t think that’s wise,” she said.

Pay attention: A number of our clients said it’s important to keep up and take notes during the pre-test seminar at the Ritz. New Jersey-based Matt Stankiewicz said “they will often tell you exactly what you need to know.”

At your fingertips: It’s one thing to take materials into an open-book exam. It’s something else entirely to have those materials digested and annotated so that you know where to go when you need info. Houston-based Artigua White said that was the key to passing the exam.

Manage your time wisely: The NFLPA exam includes ‘fact pattern’ questions that require you to read every detail, then sort out exactly what’s relevant and what’s not. That takes time. “It wasn’t a problem, but managing the time and the math . . . they kinda crunch your time based on the math equations,” said Southern California-based Chris Chapman.

In all, we interviewed 15 first-year agents for our newsletter series this year. You can access them all here. Not all, but most of them, used our study guide and/or our practice exam to make the CBA a little more manageable and give them a chance to see questions very similar to what would be on the test. All our exam prep materials — study guide and both exams — are laid out and explained here, with links to all of them.

There’s still time to pick up our resources! Our practice exams are both online, and our study guide is in PDF form and will be emailed as soon as payment is approved. What’s more, we’re on 24-hour call for our clients though Friday at noon. Bottom line, we’re here and we want to help. If you’re getting ready for the exam, please give us a chance. We can help!

 

 

 

Post-Draft Stories of Success and Spirit in the ’17 NFL Agent Class

25 Monday Jun 2018

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This year was special for us at ITL because I got to see another former intern, Jared Leigh, not only get certified and pass the exam on his first try, but also land a player on a 90-man roster in his first year certified. I know that sounds like a no-big-deal proposition, but it’s actually quite a big deal. After tracking this annually, I’d estimate that only about 20 percent of independent rookie agents get a player drafted or signed as an undrafted free agent in their first year in the business.

Jared worked for us for two years, proving to be reliable, talented and capable. He even went to the Senior Bowl the year before getting certified just to get the lay of the land and make contacts. It’s no surprise to me that he’s well on his way to making it big.

Here are two other great stories I’ve heard from talking to the 19 first-year agents in the ITL family that already have players in the league. I found them inspirational and I hope you do, too.

1.In 2014, Sam Spina was new to South Florida, but knew he wanted to be involved in pro football. So he called poured all his efforts into volunteering with former Dolphins DE Jason Taylor’s foundation, which happened to share an office with Neostar Sports, a marketing agency that represents former Dolphins great Dan Marino. Sam volunteered at Marino’s appearances before finally telling Neostar owner Ralph Stringer that he wanted to work for him. This is where the story gets good.

When told there were no vacancies, Sam was undaunted. Instead of shrugging his shoulders and shuffling off to salve his wounded ego, he returned early the next day and moved all his stuff into Neostar’s offices anyway. When Stringer arrived, Sam was answering phones and taking messages. That led to a job with Neostar that opened enough doors that, after completing law school at St. Thomas, he took the NFLPA exam, passing on the first try last summer. This is the kind of confidence mixed with audacity that you must have to succeed in this industry.

2. Sometimes the difference between having a client in the NFL and not having one is hustle. West Coast-based agent Chris Chapman didn’t have anyone drafted, but he felt like one of his clients, Houston DE Nick Thurman, was a legitimate UDFA. So he called around for a rookie minicamp tryout on the first weekend and landed one with the Raiders, but he still wasn’t satisfied.

That’s when he called the Texans near the end of Saturday of draft weekend and was fortunate enough to get a scout on the phone. After hearing Chris make his case for Thurman, the scout promised Chris he’d add him to Houston’s tryout list on Sunday. But that’s not where the story ends.

The next day, Chris sees our tweet that the scout is one of four the Texans let go the day after the draft. Chris scrambled to find a phone number for the Texans’ offices, and after tracking down a team exec, pleads his case on Thurman’s behalf. That official actually calls the fired scout, who confirms that Thurman was to be added, though only on a tryout basis.

Thurman, after not winning a spot with Oakland, comes to Houston the following weekend and beats the odds by landing a coveted UDFA slot. Had Chris not followed ITL on Twitter, he’d not have known that the scout who promised Thurman a tryout was no longer in the building. Had he not reached out to the team immediately, Thurman would probably be on the street now instead of preparing to go to Houston for training camp in July.

These stories just scratch the surface of the amazing feats of 19 rookie agents we worked with in 2017-18, their first year in the business. If you’re getting ready to take the exam next month, make sure to let us know and we’ll add you to the list.

The 9th annual Capital Preservation Partners ITL Combine Seminar Presented by Sure Sports

23 Friday Feb 2018

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I’m pretty excited about our ninth annual seminar. I’m excited about our partners; I’m excited about our program; and I’m excited about seeing so many friends and clients. I’m also excited about the new venture we’ll be introducing next week, The Scouting Network.

I wanted to use this space to provide a quick look at the agenda for Wednesday (7 p.m., Room 126 of the Indiana Convention Center in downtown Indianapolis).

  • 6 p.m.: We’ll start with networking for an hour before we officially kick things off. We’ve expanded the invitation list a bit this year from previous years, and we’ve already got more confirmed attendees with five days to go than we had last year.
  • 7 p.m.: The winner of the top 2017 Draft Class Award will be announced, and a representative from that team will accept the award, provide a few thoughts on the team’s selections and process, and answer a couple of questions from the audience. Want to know which team won, and who’ll be representing the team? We’ll be announcing that this evening in our Friday Wrap. You can register for it here. It’s free.
  • 7:15 p.m.: Our title sponsor, Leo Gjoni of Capital Preservation Partners, will welcome the audience and introduce himself and his service.
  • 7:20 p.m.: Shawn Zobel of Zobel Sport Consulting will introduce our new venture, The Scouting Network. Shawn and I hope to make the Network the place for people in the football scouting and evaluation business — college personnel directors, all-star game organizers, and NFL scouts and former scouts — to learn more about the profession, make and renew acquaintances, and otherwise solidify their respective places in the game. Shawn will lead The Scouting Network in addition to his other projects.
  • 7:30 p.m.: I’ll return to the podium to recognize some of our guests, then I’ll introduce our panel of former NFL scouts.
  • 7:35 p.m.: The members of our panel will each lead things off with a brief summary of their respective careers in football and how they got started. Then they’ll field questions from our audience on the business, where it’s going, and other related topics. Our panel will include Matt Boockemeier, who’s worked with the Vikings, Packers and Saints as well as in the UFL and CFL; James Kirkland, who’s the Director of Player Personnel at Illinois after an NFL evaluation career that included work with the Browns, Titans, Falcons and Bears; Matt Manocherian, who was with the Browns and Saints and who now serves as the Director of Football Development for Sports Info Solutions; and Bob Morris, who’s worked with the 49ers and Browns and coached at the college level for more than two decades. Shawn will moderate.
  • 8:45 p.m.: Shawn will deliver brief closing remarks. We hope to wrap things up by 9 p.m. at the latest.

We’re really excited and feel it’s going to be a fun and informative night for anyone in the football business. We’ve opened it up to all members of ITL as well as other members of the football community on the college and pro side.

Though it’s invitation-only, we have limited spots available for people interested in the business. Want in? We’re all about helping people get a leg up on a career in the business. Email us here and we’ll try to work you in.

A Conversation with EA Sports’ Clint Oldenburg

24 Friday Nov 2017

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In last week’s edition of our free weekly newsletter, the ITL Friday Wrap, we had the story of how former NFL offensive tackle Clint Oldenburg transitioned from the pro game to video games. Today, we expand on our conversation with Clint and ask him more questions about the future of Madden Football, of video games in general, and how they intersect with the game on the field.

By the way, Clint talks about how EA Sports and the NFL are engaging to make teams even better, and how that could take shape in the future, in this week’s edition of the Friday Wrap (sign up for it here).

What is the next frontier for video games as they intersect with sports, specifically football? Are we reaching the limits, or scratching the surface?

“We are just scratching the surface. Not only with video games, but with technology in general. As the technology improves every single year, the possibilities are really endless, be it video games, virtual reality, next-gen stats or something cool yet to be discovered. Where we’re at right now is a great base for teaching football fundamentals – many kids today know what cover-2 is because they play Madden.  The next frontier, I think, is virtual reality in both the teaching aspect and player safety aspect, as well as next-gen stats which are beginning to be used to track players’ health and athletic habits beyond the standard football statistics. I personally foresee these technologies being used heavily in the next 3-5 years and beyond as football starts to use more metrics following the path of Billy Beane’s Oakland Moneyball model.

How has your college football playing experience enhanced your work in the video game field? Do you see others deferring to you because of your on-field experience?

“This was the primary driver in my getting the position I was offered. I often tell people my college and NFL experience got my foot in the door, but my humility, communication skills and willingness to work as a team got the me the job. But to answer the question directly, yes, my football experience helps us make our game more authentic. There’s certain things I can see when I watch football that others cannot. For example, when a QB gets sacked on Sunday, commentary teams and fans are quick to blame the offensive line. But because I can see the protection scheme the team is trying to employ, I know almost right away if the sack was actually on the RB or the QB as opposed to the OL. I also tend to be the ‘go-to guy’ on our team about NFL rules & regulations, specific techniques being coached and how players think when breaking the huddle.”

Do you think we’ll ever see an interface that reads the video game player’s thoughts and takes away the need for a controller? 

“It’s on the horizon, but I can’t say when this will be a reality. There are a lot of discoveries happening right now around eye tracking and machine learning, but we’re not yet quite sure how much carry-over they have to video games, especially complex sports games like ours that offer a lot of different choices and strategic decisions. It would be short-sighted to say there’s absolutely no chance of that happening in the future, but there’s still a lot of work that has to be done to make those options viable in the immediate future. Fortunately, there’s a lot of brilliant people much smarter than me working in the software development industry that are going to solve all these problems and unlock an unlimited amount of possibilities for all of us as we move forward into the future.”

NFL Success: The Formula, or At Least Our Theory

07 Monday Aug 2017

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On Tuesday, I’ll be talking to a small group of business leaders from around Houston. The friend who asked me to speak, a wealth manager from a major firm here in the Bayou City, asked me to talk a little bit about what I do, and a little bit about the coming season, the Texans, etc.

Here’s a confession: I always get a little nervous when I’m speaking for a general crowd, i.e., mostly fans. If I’m talking to agents, scouts, financial advisors, parents of players, or anyone who’s already in the game, that’s my wheelhouse. We speak the same language, and I think I can provide them with something helpful. For people who just want to talk about the game, I’m a little less certain about things.

In thinking about what to present, I decided I’d try to discuss my theory on the keys to success in the NFL and apply it to the Texans. The beauty of this topic is that it can be applied to most any team. I’ve set this up to basically determine a team’s chances of making the playoffs, because I think winning the Super Bowl is a function of so many things (team health, how hot the team is over the last month of the season, relative strength of teams in your conference, etc.). If you can pinpoint a team’s chances of making the playoffs, to me, you’ve got a pretty good indicator of what kind of organization you have.

Anyway, in my estimation, here are the five elements that lead directly to NFL success, and their relative importance.

Quarterback (team leader, leader of offense): 25 percent – I was texting with a scout recently who was sharply critical of the Patriots’ college scouting record and methods, and in gest, I responded that their philosophy only works if you have Tom Brady as your quarterback. Actually, that’s true of almost every team. If you have an elite QB, it’s like you’re halfway home. It certainly covers for a lot of mistakes.

Rest of roster (football IQ, athleticism, fit to system): 25 percent – At the end of the day, players play. Others get fired when they don’t play well enough, but it’s the success of the players that determines everything else. If you have a ‘C’ coach and an ‘A’ roster, you can win. The reverse is not necessarily true, certainly not long-term.

Owner (commitment to winning, stadium, control/delegation): 10 percent – You may disagree with Jerry Jones’ style, or his ego, or whatever, but you can’t question his commitment to winning, the team’s stadium and practice facility, and his willingness to make tough decisions. Obviously, not all his decisions have worked out, but he’s not ben afraid to make them.

GM (head coach selection, management of draft, management of cap, head coach accountability): 25 percent – Here I’m assuming this is the traditional GM who has total control of the draft and hiring a head coach. I know this model is going away, but I think it’s the best way. In fact, I debated over making the GM 30 or 35 percent. This is why the Dave Gettleman and John Dorsey firings are, to me, incredibly big mistakes.

Head coach (selection of staff, game manager, fits system to talent, player accountability): 15 percent – There are plenty who’d say the head coach is the most important part of the team, and we’re seeing that realized in their salaries, but I think the ‘genius’ coach is mostly a function of his players.

This is my theory. Am I right? Am I wrong? Let me know in the comments or on Twitter.