Category Archives: ITL

Who Did The Best In The ’18 NFL Draft? Here Are Five Candidates

02 Friday Nov 2018

Posted by in ITL, Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

Last year, we asked the question, why doesn’t anyone reward the team with the best NFL draft class? When we couldn’t come up with an answer, we decided to step up and do it ourselves. After holding a vote with only current and former NFL scouts voting, we presented the New Orleans Saints with the first-ever ITL Best NFL Draft Class Award for 2017 at our annual combine seminar.

We’ll do it again in February at our 10th annual seminar. But who will voters choose? It’s still too early to tell, but since we’re at midseason, it’s time to take a look at the possible finalists for the award. Here’s who we’re considering with half the season left to go, in no particular order.

  • Browns: It’s been an up-and-down season for the top pick in the draft, but QB Baker Mayfield deserves the benefit of the doubt so far. At worst, he seems to give Cleveland a passer the team can build around. Meanwhile, DC Denzel Ward looks like a keeper, as well, and we’ll know more about OH Nick Chubb by the end of the season as the team shipped out OH Carlos Hyde a week and a half ago. WO Antonio Callaway has provided glimpses of ability, too, as has OB Genard Avery.  Right now, the Browns look like the early leaders for best draft.
  • Colts: First-round OG Quenton Nelson has been solid, but the real find so far has been OB Darius Leonard, a true difference-maker the Colts found in the second round out of South Carolina State. The team also found a starter at right tackle, Braden Smith, one pick later, and fourth-round OH Nyheim Hines has been a threat as a rusher and a receiver.
  • Giants: Running back Saquon Barkley has been as-advertised, an undeniable talent and the leader in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race. Also, DT B.J. Hill looks like a building block, or at least part of the solution on defense. As for the rest of the team’s draft class, the grade has to be ‘incomplete.’ Guard Will Hernandez is learning on the job for a weak offensive line but there’s hope he’ll come away from the season as a bright spot. We may find out sooner rather than later what the team has in QB Kyle Lauletta, though there’s plenty of uncertainty surrounding DT R.J. McIntosh.
  • Broncos: Denver struck it rich twice, once in the first round with DE Bradley Chubb and once after the draft, when it landed UDFA OH Phillip Lindsay. We could see a lot more of WO Courtland Sutton in the second half with fellow receiver Demaryius Thomas now in Houston, so their draft could look even better in the second half.
  • Jets: So far, QB Sam Darnold has had his problems, but he’s the starter, no questions asked, so presuming he stays healthy, he’s got a chance to learn from his mistakes and make the Jets’ draft class look really good. In non-franchise QB news, the Jets also got a starter on the DL in the third round (DT Nate Shepherd) and fourth-round TE Chris Herndon is tied for the team lead in receiving TDs with three.

There are several other teams that could edge their way into the top five, and we’ll look at five more of them today in the Friday Wrap.

Not registered for it? Why not? It’s free, it comes out at 7:30 p.m. ET every week, and if you’re into the football business, we promise you’ll find it to be a good read. Register here, and check out last week’s edition here.

NFL Draft Analysis: Is It Mostly Good or Bad to Skip Your Senior Year?

12 Friday Oct 2018

Posted by in ITL, Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

At Inside the League, we’re always interested in looking at the draft in ways others don’t. With half the college season wrapping up after this weekend, this week, we thought we’d look at the true juniors, redshirt juniors and redshirt sophomores that might be thinking of passing up their respective seasons.

We hear a lot about the poor decisions so many players make in leaving early, and how the number of early entries is inclining steadily. The NFL puts a lot of resources into educating players on their pro chances, yet still, the perception is that countless players are throwing away their college careers to chase wild dreams, often egged on by unscrupulous agents.

Based on our look at the numbers, that perception doesn’t match reality. Do players who leave early blow their chances of getting to the league? For the most part, no. Consider.

  • About one in seven players who leave early (15.5 percent) won’t make a 53-man roster or practice squad at all. Looking at those numbers as half-full, rather than half-empty, just over 84 percent will make an NFL team, at least for a little while.
  • Numbers aren’t available on what percentage, on average, doesn’t even make it to an NFL camp, but I’d estimate it’s about half of that. Again, turning the numbers to half-full, I’d estimate that more than 90 percent of those leaving early at least make it into a camp.
  • Would another year in college have made any difference? It’s impossible to tell. What percentage of those players left school with eligibility remaining, but already had a degree? Those are also numbers we don’t have.
  • More on education and degree completion: it’s worth noting that most often, offensive linemen make it furthest in their coursework because they redshirt their first seasons. However, of the 87 players in the last five years who left early but never made it to the regular season, just six were offensive linemen.
  • More on the players that never made it to the regular season: 26 of 87 (about 30 percent) were from FCS-or-smaller schools, which statistically only make up about nine percent of the league anyway. If you’re leaving early for the NFL and you didn’t play FBS, it’s like having to notch a hole in one for the chance to make a half-court shot. The odds aren’t good.

At the end of the day, if you’re a player who feels he’s had a good season, is ready for the league, and has explored all his options and submitted his name for review with the NFL, I don’t think it’s a completely outrageous idea. After all, the NFL can be a very fickle organization, and your chances this time next year are not automatically as good as they are this year, especially when you figure in the chance of injury.

At the same time, before you make any decisions, we recommend you look at the hard numbers, which you can do here (with an ITL account, that is; sorry).

One question we’ve avoided entirely in this space is, what are the statistical chances a player who leaves early gets drafted? We take a long look at that in this week’s Friday Wrap, analyzing our statistical breakdown, which is presented here (sorry, it’s an ITL link again).

Make sure to check out our full look at early entries, where they wind up, and why in today’s Friday Wrap. You can register for it here.

Tips from 2018 NFLPA Test-Takers

17 Tuesday Jul 2018

Posted by in ITL

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

One of the keys to success in any venture is listening to those who’ve gone on before you. With that in mind, every year, we interview ITL clients coming off their respective rookie years in the business. We ask them several questions, but one is always the same: ‘What was your take on the NFLPA exam?’

Since we’re about 24 hours from the next agent class touching down in Washington, D.C., and about 72 from the exam, I thought I’d provide an overview of what this year’s rookie class said about the test. I should note that every agent we interviewed is not only a member of ITL, but also has at least one player on an NFL roster in their first year. Only about one in four rookie agents do that every year, so they’re in impressive company.

Respect the test: I would say this is the main reason some pass and some don’t. Most people hear “open book,” “multiple choice” and “graded on a curve” and laugh it off. Maybe that was good enough before 2016, but especially since the test was made harder, it’s not true anymore. Mobile, Ala.-based Alexa Stabler said she saw people who came to D.C. underestimating the test. “I don’t think that’s wise,” she said.

Pay attention: A number of our clients said it’s important to keep up and take notes during the pre-test seminar at the Ritz. New Jersey-based Matt Stankiewicz said “they will often tell you exactly what you need to know.”

At your fingertips: It’s one thing to take materials into an open-book exam. It’s something else entirely to have those materials digested and annotated so that you know where to go when you need info. Houston-based Artigua White said that was the key to passing the exam.

Manage your time wisely: The NFLPA exam includes ‘fact pattern’ questions that require you to read every detail, then sort out exactly what’s relevant and what’s not. That takes time. “It wasn’t a problem, but managing the time and the math . . . they kinda crunch your time based on the math equations,” said Southern California-based Chris Chapman.

In all, we interviewed 15 first-year agents for our newsletter series this year. You can access them all here. Not all, but most of them, used our study guide and/or our practice exam to make the CBA a little more manageable and give them a chance to see questions very similar to what would be on the test. All our exam prep materials — study guide and both exams — are laid out and explained here, with links to all of them.

There’s still time to pick up our resources! Our practice exams are both online, and our study guide is in PDF form and will be emailed as soon as payment is approved. What’s more, we’re on 24-hour call for our clients though Friday at noon. Bottom line, we’re here and we want to help. If you’re getting ready for the exam, please give us a chance. We can help!

 

 

 

Post-Draft Stories of Success and Spirit in the ’17 NFL Agent Class

25 Monday Jun 2018

Posted by in ITL, Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

This year was special for us at ITL because I got to see another former intern, Jared Leigh, not only get certified and pass the exam on his first try, but also land a player on a 90-man roster in his first year certified. I know that sounds like a no-big-deal proposition, but it’s actually quite a big deal. After tracking this annually, I’d estimate that only about 20 percent of independent rookie agents get a player drafted or signed as an undrafted free agent in their first year in the business.

Jared worked for us for two years, proving to be reliable, talented and capable. He even went to the Senior Bowl the year before getting certified just to get the lay of the land and make contacts. It’s no surprise to me that he’s well on his way to making it big.

Here are two other great stories I’ve heard from talking to the 19 first-year agents in the ITL family that already have players in the league. I found them inspirational and I hope you do, too.

1.In 2014, Sam Spina was new to South Florida, but knew he wanted to be involved in pro football. So he called poured all his efforts into volunteering with former Dolphins DE Jason Taylor’s foundation, which happened to share an office with Neostar Sports, a marketing agency that represents former Dolphins great Dan Marino. Sam volunteered at Marino’s appearances before finally telling Neostar owner Ralph Stringer that he wanted to work for him. This is where the story gets good.

When told there were no vacancies, Sam was undaunted. Instead of shrugging his shoulders and shuffling off to salve his wounded ego, he returned early the next day and moved all his stuff into Neostar’s offices anyway. When Stringer arrived, Sam was answering phones and taking messages. That led to a job with Neostar that opened enough doors that, after completing law school at St. Thomas, he took the NFLPA exam, passing on the first try last summer. This is the kind of confidence mixed with audacity that you must have to succeed in this industry.

2. Sometimes the difference between having a client in the NFL and not having one is hustle. West Coast-based agent Chris Chapman didn’t have anyone drafted, but he felt like one of his clients, Houston DE Nick Thurman, was a legitimate UDFA. So he called around for a rookie minicamp tryout on the first weekend and landed one with the Raiders, but he still wasn’t satisfied.

That’s when he called the Texans near the end of Saturday of draft weekend and was fortunate enough to get a scout on the phone. After hearing Chris make his case for Thurman, the scout promised Chris he’d add him to Houston’s tryout list on Sunday. But that’s not where the story ends.

The next day, Chris sees our tweet that the scout is one of four the Texans let go the day after the draft. Chris scrambled to find a phone number for the Texans’ offices, and after tracking down a team exec, pleads his case on Thurman’s behalf. That official actually calls the fired scout, who confirms that Thurman was to be added, though only on a tryout basis.

Thurman, after not winning a spot with Oakland, comes to Houston the following weekend and beats the odds by landing a coveted UDFA slot. Had Chris not followed ITL on Twitter, he’d not have known that the scout who promised Thurman a tryout was no longer in the building. Had he not reached out to the team immediately, Thurman would probably be on the street now instead of preparing to go to Houston for training camp in July.

These stories just scratch the surface of the amazing feats of 19 rookie agents we worked with in 2017-18, their first year in the business. If you’re getting ready to take the exam next month, make sure to let us know and we’ll add you to the list.

The 9th annual Capital Preservation Partners ITL Combine Seminar Presented by Sure Sports

23 Friday Feb 2018

Posted by in ITL, Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

I’m pretty excited about our ninth annual seminar. I’m excited about our partners; I’m excited about our program; and I’m excited about seeing so many friends and clients. I’m also excited about the new venture we’ll be introducing next week, The Scouting Network.

I wanted to use this space to provide a quick look at the agenda for Wednesday (7 p.m., Room 126 of the Indiana Convention Center in downtown Indianapolis).

  • 6 p.m.: We’ll start with networking for an hour before we officially kick things off. We’ve expanded the invitation list a bit this year from previous years, and we’ve already got more confirmed attendees with five days to go than we had last year.
  • 7 p.m.: The winner of the top 2017 Draft Class Award will be announced, and a representative from that team will accept the award, provide a few thoughts on the team’s selections and process, and answer a couple of questions from the audience. Want to know which team won, and who’ll be representing the team? We’ll be announcing that this evening in our Friday Wrap. You can register for it here. It’s free.
  • 7:15 p.m.: Our title sponsor, Leo Gjoni of Capital Preservation Partners, will welcome the audience and introduce himself and his service.
  • 7:20 p.m.: Shawn Zobel of Zobel Sport Consulting will introduce our new venture, The Scouting Network. Shawn and I hope to make the Network the place for people in the football scouting and evaluation business — college personnel directors, all-star game organizers, and NFL scouts and former scouts — to learn more about the profession, make and renew acquaintances, and otherwise solidify their respective places in the game. Shawn will lead The Scouting Network in addition to his other projects.
  • 7:30 p.m.: I’ll return to the podium to recognize some of our guests, then I’ll introduce our panel of former NFL scouts.
  • 7:35 p.m.: The members of our panel will each lead things off with a brief summary of their respective careers in football and how they got started. Then they’ll field questions from our audience on the business, where it’s going, and other related topics. Our panel will include Matt Boockemeier, who’s worked with the Vikings, Packers and Saints as well as in the UFL and CFL; James Kirkland, who’s the Director of Player Personnel at Illinois after an NFL evaluation career that included work with the Browns, Titans, Falcons and Bears; Matt Manocherian, who was with the Browns and Saints and who now serves as the Director of Football Development for Sports Info Solutions; and Bob Morris, who’s worked with the 49ers and Browns and coached at the college level for more than two decades. Shawn will moderate.
  • 8:45 p.m.: Shawn will deliver brief closing remarks. We hope to wrap things up by 9 p.m. at the latest.

We’re really excited and feel it’s going to be a fun and informative night for anyone in the football business. We’ve opened it up to all members of ITL as well as other members of the football community on the college and pro side.

Though it’s invitation-only, we have limited spots available for people interested in the business. Want in? We’re all about helping people get a leg up on a career in the business. Email us here and we’ll try to work you in.

A Conversation with EA Sports’ Clint Oldenburg

24 Friday Nov 2017

Posted by in ITL

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

In last week’s edition of our free weekly newsletter, the ITL Friday Wrap, we had the story of how former NFL offensive tackle Clint Oldenburg transitioned from the pro game to video games. Today, we expand on our conversation with Clint and ask him more questions about the future of Madden Football, of video games in general, and how they intersect with the game on the field.

By the way, Clint talks about how EA Sports and the NFL are engaging to make teams even better, and how that could take shape in the future, in this week’s edition of the Friday Wrap (sign up for it here).

What is the next frontier for video games as they intersect with sports, specifically football? Are we reaching the limits, or scratching the surface?

“We are just scratching the surface. Not only with video games, but with technology in general. As the technology improves every single year, the possibilities are really endless, be it video games, virtual reality, next-gen stats or something cool yet to be discovered. Where we’re at right now is a great base for teaching football fundamentals – many kids today know what cover-2 is because they play Madden.  The next frontier, I think, is virtual reality in both the teaching aspect and player safety aspect, as well as next-gen stats which are beginning to be used to track players’ health and athletic habits beyond the standard football statistics. I personally foresee these technologies being used heavily in the next 3-5 years and beyond as football starts to use more metrics following the path of Billy Beane’s Oakland Moneyball model.

How has your college football playing experience enhanced your work in the video game field? Do you see others deferring to you because of your on-field experience?

“This was the primary driver in my getting the position I was offered. I often tell people my college and NFL experience got my foot in the door, but my humility, communication skills and willingness to work as a team got the me the job. But to answer the question directly, yes, my football experience helps us make our game more authentic. There’s certain things I can see when I watch football that others cannot. For example, when a QB gets sacked on Sunday, commentary teams and fans are quick to blame the offensive line. But because I can see the protection scheme the team is trying to employ, I know almost right away if the sack was actually on the RB or the QB as opposed to the OL. I also tend to be the ‘go-to guy’ on our team about NFL rules & regulations, specific techniques being coached and how players think when breaking the huddle.”

Do you think we’ll ever see an interface that reads the video game player’s thoughts and takes away the need for a controller? 

“It’s on the horizon, but I can’t say when this will be a reality. There are a lot of discoveries happening right now around eye tracking and machine learning, but we’re not yet quite sure how much carry-over they have to video games, especially complex sports games like ours that offer a lot of different choices and strategic decisions. It would be short-sighted to say there’s absolutely no chance of that happening in the future, but there’s still a lot of work that has to be done to make those options viable in the immediate future. Fortunately, there’s a lot of brilliant people much smarter than me working in the software development industry that are going to solve all these problems and unlock an unlimited amount of possibilities for all of us as we move forward into the future.”

NFL Success: The Formula, or At Least Our Theory

07 Monday Aug 2017

Posted by in Agents, ITL, Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, ,

On Tuesday, I’ll be talking to a small group of business leaders from around Houston. The friend who asked me to speak, a wealth manager from a major firm here in the Bayou City, asked me to talk a little bit about what I do, and a little bit about the coming season, the Texans, etc.

Here’s a confession: I always get a little nervous when I’m speaking for a general crowd, i.e., mostly fans. If I’m talking to agents, scouts, financial advisors, parents of players, or anyone who’s already in the game, that’s my wheelhouse. We speak the same language, and I think I can provide them with something helpful. For people who just want to talk about the game, I’m a little less certain about things.

In thinking about what to present, I decided I’d try to discuss my theory on the keys to success in the NFL and apply it to the Texans. The beauty of this topic is that it can be applied to most any team. I’ve set this up to basically determine a team’s chances of making the playoffs, because I think winning the Super Bowl is a function of so many things (team health, how hot the team is over the last month of the season, relative strength of teams in your conference, etc.). If you can pinpoint a team’s chances of making the playoffs, to me, you’ve got a pretty good indicator of what kind of organization you have.

Anyway, in my estimation, here are the five elements that lead directly to NFL success, and their relative importance.

Quarterback (team leader, leader of offense): 25 percent – I was texting with a scout recently who was sharply critical of the Patriots’ college scouting record and methods, and in gest, I responded that their philosophy only works if you have Tom Brady as your quarterback. Actually, that’s true of almost every team. If you have an elite QB, it’s like you’re halfway home. It certainly covers for a lot of mistakes.

Rest of roster (football IQ, athleticism, fit to system): 25 percent – At the end of the day, players play. Others get fired when they don’t play well enough, but it’s the success of the players that determines everything else. If you have a ‘C’ coach and an ‘A’ roster, you can win. The reverse is not necessarily true, certainly not long-term.

Owner (commitment to winning, stadium, control/delegation): 10 percent – You may disagree with Jerry Jones’ style, or his ego, or whatever, but you can’t question his commitment to winning, the team’s stadium and practice facility, and his willingness to make tough decisions. Obviously, not all his decisions have worked out, but he’s not ben afraid to make them.

GM (head coach selection, management of draft, management of cap, head coach accountability): 25 percent – Here I’m assuming this is the traditional GM who has total control of the draft and hiring a head coach. I know this model is going away, but I think it’s the best way. In fact, I debated over making the GM 30 or 35 percent. This is why the Dave Gettleman and John Dorsey firings are, to me, incredibly big mistakes.

Head coach (selection of staff, game manager, fits system to talent, player accountability): 15 percent – There are plenty who’d say the head coach is the most important part of the team, and we’re seeing that realized in their salaries, but I think the ‘genius’ coach is mostly a function of his players.

This is my theory. Am I right? Am I wrong? Let me know in the comments or on Twitter.

 

The Bloodbath and the Aftermath

05 Friday May 2017

Posted by in ITL, Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

If you follow ITL on Twitter, you know it’s been an incredible week for transition in NFL scouting departments, and not in a good way.

It began Sunday morning when 17 Bills scouts, both pro and college, woke up to find that not only were they let go, but their key cards didn’t open doors, their email addresses didn’t work, and they’d been wiped off the Website. It’s the first time I’ve ever seen an entire department (save for two scouting assistants) completely wiped out in one move. But that was just the warmup. From Sunday afternoon to Monday afternoon, we reported 11 scouts and evaluators from seven different teams that had lost their jobs. Several of them are good friends of mine, and friends of friends. I remember texting scouts and their responses were full of shock and grief. It was an incredibly difficult day.

So why did it happen? Why was it such a brutal week? I don’t know, but here are some possible ideas.

Belt-tightening: As everyone who follows NFL football knows, TV ratings were off by 10 percent this year. This doesn’t mean teams lost money in 2016, of course — not by a long shot — but it could have given the teams’ bean-counters a reason to recommend cutting expenses. One fact of life in the NFL is that scouts are probably the least respected football people in the building. The players, obviously, get the lion’s share of the money, and the coaches do pretty well, too. However, scouts are on an entirely different plain. If you aspire to be a scout one day, you need to understand that reality.

Analytics: It’s possible 2017 is the true ‘dawn’ of the age of analytics in football. I’m not sure why that would be, as the Browns’ move to go all-in for metrics hasn’t exactly resulted in success. On the other hand, Cleveland has done it, and for better or worse, the critics have pulled back to see if it works or not. Some teams could see this as their opportunity to lean on the younger, cheaper analytics experts in their offices rather than the 20-year area scout in his 50s. As with other big businesses, a lot of what NFL teams do is influenced by what kind of media blowback they risk.

No template: Because scouting is such a mysterious, subjective business practiced by a select few, and because football is so cyclical, no one can point to one strict way of doing things and pronounce, ‘this is how it’s done.’ Even the really good teams blow it with their first-rounders every once in a while. This allows teams to make moves that don’t seem to make sense to people in the business. Fans and outsiders just shrug their shoulders and presume that it all makes sense somehow.

Disposability: Scouts are not celebrities. There is no union for NFL scouts. By their nature, they work in anonymity. Fans don’t know them. This means that when a scout is let go, it doesn’t make big headlines. Sometimes, a team just removes the scout’s name from its Website and never even makes an announcement. What’s more, there’s always a scouting assistant waiting for someone to retire, get fired, etc. In general, I just don’t see value attached to the experience and network a seasoned scout has.

Though Black Monday is behind us, we’re a long way from seeing all the changes in scouting departments that come in May. Time will tell if there’s even more transition next week. In the meantime, if being a scout is what you aspire to, please proceed with caution.

 

My Son, and a Draft Prospect’s Mindset

06 Friday Jan 2017

Posted by in Coaches, ITL

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

This week, I had an epiphany on why so many draft prospects (especially projected late-rounders) struggle to see the game as a business and fail to see their place in it. It sprung from an experience I had at a hometown eatery with my wife, son, and his swim coach.

My oldest son, 14, plays pretty much whatever’s in season, but basketball, swimming and track (long jump) are his passions, and what he’s best at. He’s long and lean, with a perfect swimmer’s build, and at 6-foot-3 just an inch shorter than I am. But he lives in suburban Houston, a place where young men start being groomed for the pros at second grade. He’s also captivated by Michael Phelps, and aspires to the Olympics. So there we were at lunch with his swim coach, wanting to know what it might take for him to realize his dreams, however impractical they may be.

In the space of an hour, my son’s coach talked about his decorated career as a high school swimmer under one of the best coaches in the state of Texas. He talked about giving up summer vacations and holidays; about two-hour swim sessions early in the morning followed by two-and-a-half-hour sessions in the afternoon; about having only one month (August) off from that routine every year; and about giving up all other sports in junior high to focus solely on swimming. His sacrifices and devotion to life in the pool produced a scholarship to an excellent Division II school in the Midwest, where he swam four more years and earned an engineering degree. To me, or any other adult, that’s an incredible success story. At the same time, it came at a stiff price, and despite his excellence, fell far short of Olympic glory.

 

The coach’s story of sacrifice and work gave my wife and I pause. I’d heard pretty much all I had to hear, and to me, the path was clear: swim, yes, but also play as many sports as possible, whatever’s in season. Have fun. Let life play out, hoping to play basketball in high school but also trying to swim and maybe even continuing his long jump career. And as the competition stiffened, he could withdraw from sports, but it would all happen organically. In short, something less than total devotion to one sport in a probably fruitless Olympic chase.

That’s the reaction I expected from my son. Instead, he turned to the coach and said, basically, when do we start?

There’s a postscript. That evening, coming home from youth group at our church, we had a long talk, and he admitted his tension about what lay ahead. The commitment to swimming was daunting and he didn’t know if he could do it. “I just want to make you and mom proud of me,” he said. Though I assured him that my wife and I love him and have no expectations, and that we would support him no matter what, the next day he sent me a text a few hours before the afternoon’s basketball game. “Still nervous,” it read. Not about the game. But about swimming.

I take two things from this. One, when you’re young, you believe everything is possible. I mean, everything. With the right amount of effort and the necessary training, you’ll get to your goals. I think this is why so many aspiring NFL players feel combine prep is so absolutely critical.

But the other is this. Many of these young men feel overwhelming pressure to get to the NFL. A lot of it is internal, because they know it’s ‘put up or shut up’ time. However, a lot of that is external. Their whole identity has already been associated with their status as a football player, and when their NFL dreams die, they become someone else, not just to themselves, but to their friends, family, the people back home, everyone. That produces desperation, and it’s probably why it’s so hard for that dream to die.

As a 47-year-old, it’s so easy to forget what it’s like to not be established, and how difficult it is to grapple with the weight of expectations. But I think I understand it a lot better now.

Questions of the Season

30 Friday Dec 2016

Posted by in ITL, Scouts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, ,

The 60 days from about Thanksgiving to the Senior Bowl are the busiest ‘behind the scenes’ times of the football business, or at least, they are for me and most ITL clients. It’s also when I spend most of my time on the road, hopping from all-star game to all-star game.

It’s a wild and crazy time when my wife and kids rarely see me, but it’s also the time when I get to see ‘my people,’ face to face. When you run a business like mine, you spend hours texting, emailing and talking on the phone with people, but you never see their faces unless it’s on a Facebook post. There’s still value in meeting with people, shaking hands, and talking shop.

Of course, there’s very little time to waste, so I try not to spend a lot of time on small talk. Here are a few questions I’ll be asking my contacts and colleagues over the next few weeks.

Three percent? 1.5 percent? Something else?: As you know, if you read this blog, we’ve spent a lot of time on the new SRA, which defaults to a 1.5 percent agent fee unless otherwise marked. There was a pretty high level of interest (and worry) on the part of agents when the NFLPA released the new SRA with these standards set. Were these worries warranted? Are players willing to pay 3 percent? Are they demanding training be paid in return for paying 3 percent? Do they even have any idea about the 3 percent vs. 1.5 percent issue?

How small is too small? What off-the-field matter makes a player too hot to touch?: I’m not sure anyone can answer these questions, but 14 years after launching ITL, I’m still asking them. What makes one player with high production but size limitations a first-rounder, but another with almost exactly the same production and dimensions undraftable? I started a text conversation with an ex-NFL player a few weeks back regarding this question, and it got so detailed that I asked him to postpone it, with hopes that we’ll have time to expand on it at the combine or somewhere else on the all-star trail. Maybe the truth is out there. Ultimately, I think the answer lies in what’s ‘safe’ and defensible in scouting circles. My guess is that it’s got a lot to do with the media, and how much criticism a team will get or not get if it violates the scouting ‘book.’ Could the media and public perception really have that kind of impact on player evaluation? if so, it means analytics deserve much wider use in football circles, at least to me. But I don’t want to fall back on convenient solutions if there’s something concrete that I’m missing.

Anyway, if these questions interest you, I’ll be on a fact-finding mission over the next month-plus, and I’ll try to bring my findings back to this space. I hope you’ll check it out. And if you have your own ideas on these topics, please, fill me in via the comments section.