Are draft success stories the product of the player drafted or the team that drafts that player?

It’s a question I’ve been grappling with pretty much since 4 p.m. on Tuesday, when teams were required to make their cuts to 53. In the last week, we’ve seen a third-rounder (Jets WO Malachi Corley), a fourth-rounder (Patriots OG Layden Robinson) and several fifth-rounders (Denver OH Audric Estime as well as Miami FS Patrick McMorris and OB Mohamed Kamara), not to mention a fifth-rounder from this year’s draft in Chris Paul, formerly of the Rams. There are several others drafted on Day 3 that also got the axe. Should they have gotten a longer leash? Or was it the picks themselves? Ultimately, do teams deserve more credit for what happens on draft day, or for what happens after draft day?

It’s a good question, but today, I want to take it from the top with this question: which teams are best at developing their talent, regardless of who they draft?

To find out, I did what I usually do: I asked several of my scouting friends. You can read the comments from several of them in today’s Friday Wrap, which comes out at 7:30 p.m. (register here).

Here’s one that was a bit more involved than the others, so I decided to include the whole thing (with a few minor edits).

“Three teams in recent years come to my mind in no particular order.

• “The Rams — who embodied the “(screw) those draft picks” philosophy — went all in and won a Super Bowl. They developed a unique approach, using the ‘super powers’ of their scouting staff to find the ‘super powers’ of draft choices and free agents. The proof is winning ITL’s Best Draft Award and hitting on late draft choices and UFA’s.
• “The Lions have also done a good job of drafting through all rounds of the draft and sticking to what they like and how they see players. It appears they have no confirmation bias within the organization. While you can say they are from the Rams family tree, I think GM Brad Holmes (who arrived from Los Angeles) has his own values and different ‘super powers’ that sets his team apart from the Rams, but with similarities. You can point out the failure of QB Hendon Hooker, but as I say in scouting, you have not scouted until you got a player wrong!
• “Lastly, the Ravens have always been consistent in their batting average through the years with draft choices and particular with UDFAs.

“Some of the traditionally strong teams appear to have lost their willingness to draft and develop, going with a “band-aid” approach, i.e., signing free agents; this is usually due to a leadership change. These teams are chasing immediate success vs. sustainable success. Time will tell if they were right.

“One last thing. One study in my career was that around 60 UDFAs make a 53-man roster each year. That’s roughly two per team. The teams that consistently find these players are elite franchises. All three of these teams (Los Angeles, Detroit and Baltimore) excel in this area.”

If this topic intrigues you, and learning which teams are most respected around the league for the job they each do after draft day, make sure to check out today’s Wrap. These three teams aren’t the only ones who got kudos from evaluators around the league.

On Wednesday, former NFL scouting executive Blake Beddingfield presented his Summer Sleepers list and joined dozens of agents on Zoom to discuss them. It’s our second year of presenting his list during the summer, but our sixth year of him doing this (we used to save it for in-season). Here’s a look at a past list.

Anyway, the value in Blake’s list (as well as the timing of it) is in the players he spotlights. All of them enter the season as Day 3/UDFA types, and maybe they never rise above that, but even if they don’t, it’s valuable to know about them. As we’ve recounted on ITL this week, a growing number of players with Day 1 grades already have strong relationships with top firms, and the battle is for the players who aren’t on preseason mock drafts.

Anyway, here are two of the 55 players Blake discussed Wednesday that I found especially interesting.

Barion Brown, WO, LSU: Brown could be the fastest player in the draft, and he will play a role in Year 1 as he’ll be used to stretch defenses and create mismatches. He’ll also be a starting returner immediately. However, he has inconsistent hands and he struggles with the ability to catch a ball with tight zip and velocity. He will “double-catch” it at times, and other times, he just drops the ball. There’s already been a lot of hype this spring about Brown, who transferred in from Kentucky this offseason, but there are red flags due to his hands.

Elijah Pritchett, OT, Nebraska: Pritchett has a first-round body but free agent film. There’s already video of him doing impressive feats of strength during his short time in Lincoln, but it’s not the tools that are in question. Blake got really passionate describing Pritchett’s unrealized potential on Wednesday; you don’t often find the combination of strength, feet and burst that the big ‘Husker shows. He’s already got 12 starts at tackle (mostly right, but one at left) from his time at Alabama, and the potential is tantalizing, but at this point it’s just potential. Still, if the light comes on, he could be elite. The question is, will it?

The point is, unless you’re with one of the top 50 NFL agencies (and maybe, even if you are), you need to know about the players Blake described Wednesday. It’s still early, and if you get in with one of these young men early, it may be the difference when it’s decision time in December or January. For $45 plus tax, you get Blake’s list with his notes and projections on all 55 players, but you also get the video, during which he really gets passionate about who these players are, their NFL comps, and the details you can’t find anywhere else.

The one question I get this time of year is, where are there jobs open? So maybe I can save myself a couple texts by publishing this rundown of not only where the openings are but my guesses on how the jobs will be filled. I hope you find it helpful.

Executive level (Director of College/Pro Scouting and up)

• I don’t think the Jaguars are done yet. I”m still in the dark on what’s next, but it seems like they have a long way to go to make their front office resemble the Rams.
• Speaking of the Rams, they’re down a Senior Personnel Executive due to the loss of Brian Xanders to Jacksonville.
• Most of the executive-level vacancies with the Jets have been filled. I haven’t heard of any big names getting ready to go to the Big Apple.
• The Eagles are missing a Senior Director of College Scouting and a Senior Director of Scouting (Anthony Patch and Brandon Hunt, respectively, both gone to Las Vegas). My guess is that they stay in-house to replace them both. I’ve heard Assistant Director of College Scouting Ryan Myers is being elevated to director, for what it’s worth.
• With the Patch and Hunt additions, in addition to the previous additions, I suspect the Raiders are done.
• I expect movement on the pro side in Tennessee, but I don’t know what form that will take. I’m not sure if the team will have a pro director, or if the team’s pro scouts will work under someone at the executive level. New AGM Dave Ziegler has an extensive background on the pro side.
• The Patriots lost their college director this week (Camren Williams).

Road level (National/College/Area/Pro Scout)

• The Dolphins surprisingly said goodbye to Senior Scout Jim Abrams early in the post-draft process. He still hasn’t been replaced.
• These are truly weird days because, based on what I’ve heard, the eternally frugal Bengals are replacing one loss (Christian Sarkisian to Northwestern) with not one, but two, hires.
• I think the Giants are going to stay at two National Scouts since saying goodbye to Mike Derice.
• If what happens in Jacksonville turns out to be what I expect to happen, there could be a lot of Jaguars scouts who could be on the way out. When/if that happens, I don’t expect them to be replaced. The only thing that could make this plan go awry is that the team has several area scouts with a year left on their respective contracts, and Jax has a reputation for preferring not to let scouts go if their respective contracts are not up.
• On the pro side, the Rams tend to run pretty lean, so I don’t think either of the Pro Scouts no longer with the Jags (Geep Chryst and Chris Ash) will be replaced. Technically, they’ve already moved Rory Segrest into one of those slots (from the coaching side) already.
• The sense I get is that former Rams National Scout Michael Pierce is “on the street” and doesn’t have an imminent new post. Between Michael, Derice and Abrams, there are some truly great scouts available right now. And those are just three names; there are many more whose reputation I don’t know as well.
• Speaking of the Rams, though they do things a little differently, they did carry six area scouts last year. Right now, they have one (1), having either said goodbye to or promoted all six since mid-March. I don’t know exactly how they’ll address all of that, but I don’t think they have enough people in-house to find replacements around the office.
• New England has a vacancy at Area Scout (Josh Hinch, though he’s soon to be announced as joining another team).
• I could see movement with the Chargers, given second-year GM Joe Hortiz didn’t make a lot of changes a year ago. I’ve also heard many/most of the team’s scouts’ contracts are up. However, the team has had some pretty good drafts of late, so maybe Hortiz resists the impulse to bring in his own guys just for change’s sake.
• I wouldn’t be surprised if the Packers or Falcons didn’t replace their recent losses. May be true of the Dolphins as well.
• I think the Jets will replace Johnathon Stigall (Raiders) in-house. However, I know they’ve been interviewing aggressively and they’ll be bringing in at least one new Area Scout from the college ranks.

Scouting Assistant

• This is where I expect the most change over the next month now that teams are filling in at higher levels.
• The Eagles are pretty slim here (they have just two), which means, depending on how the dominoes fall, they may be aggressively looking for replacements soon. Typically, their model is to bring in 3-4 training camp interns and let them fight it out for the open scouting assistant positions, so we may not see clarity at that level in Philly for a while.
• Looking at the Jaguars again, if GM James Gladstone wants to make his front office an exact duplicate of where he came from, I wouldn’t expect any hires, and maybe even some releases.
• The Bucs just promoted two Scouting Assistants into more senior roles.
• With Maya Ana Callender’s exit, the Patriots have a vacancy.
• I’ve heard the Cardinals and Titans both recently made decisions on hires at this level.

For even more insider-level stuff on scouting, make sure to register for the Friday Wrap here.

These days, there’s a lot of movement in NFL front offices. That’s just the nature of the post-draft period. Once the picks are in, teams tend to reshape their scouting staffs, especially if there’s a new GM in town.

Often, changes in a team’s scouting lineup are met with great fanfare, especially when a struggling team starts turning the page on some of its longer-serving officials. But is this warranted? And is there any link between the scouts a team might add and their success on following draft days? It’s hard to tell, but here are my thoughts on what to look for when you see faces change in NFL front offices.

Awards and accomplishments: There’s no PFF for scouts. It’s very hard to know which ones are good and which ones just happened to be with good organizations. What’s more, we’re seeing, time and again, that some of the scouts who are most respected by their peers get let go anyway. Despite this, we launched the BART List Awards in 2022 to give scouts a chance to recognize the best of their brethren. Though it’s only been four years, if you know a scout won a BART List Award (as I always try to include in my posts, when relevant), you know that other active NFL scouts think he’s good. I think that carries weight, whether or not his team recognizes it or not.

Their previous organizations: The Lions’ turnaround started when they brought in Brad Holmes from the Rams as the new GM. These days, the Lions and the Rams are perennial playoff teams with outstanding leadership. Last year, new Commanders GM Adam Peters arrived from the 49ers and rebuilt the team’s front office with executives from the Lions (Assistant GM Lance Newmark), Ravens (Director of Player Personnel David Blackburn) and Seahawks (Personnel Executive Scott Fitterer, by way of the Panthers). All four of those organizations (San Francisco, Detroit, Baltimore and Seattle) are NFL bluebloods. Though those new additions (who all arrived in May or later) didn’t draft for Washington in 2024, obviously, I”m confident Peters’ staff is going to bear fruit quickly.

Look at who they are: The Raiders announced Wednesday that they’d be bringing in Johnathon Stigall as the team’s new Assistant Director of College Scouting, and the move drew raspberries from some on Twitter. Really? Here’s what you need to know about Johnathon:

• He actually played the game at the college level as a running back at DePauw in the late 90s. Scouts who are ex-college players is becoming rare.
• He has almost 30 years in NFL player evaluation (he’s entering his 27th year).
• He’s worked for the late Tom Heckert (Browns), Howie Roseman (Eagles), Rick Spielman (Dolphins) and the late Mark Hatley (Bears). Those might not all be household names, but they are all highly respected in NFL circles. Trust me.
• He was part of a Jets staff that drafted the OROY (Ohio State WO Garrett Wilson) AND the DROY (Cincinnati DC Sauce Gardner) in the same year (2022).
• We’ve presented the BART List Award four years. He’s won three of them. We hand out 20-30 each year, so it’s not like he’s the one award winner, but it’s still impressive.

That’s a resume. If you’re a Raiders fan, you should feel really good about landing Johnathon. I can assure you new Jets GM Darren Mougey wasn’t happy to see him go.

It’s important to recognize that no team bats 1.000 in the draft. Shoot, if you bat .800 on Day 1 and Day 2 and .500 on Day 3, you’re almost guaranteed to be a perennial playoff team. But there are signs that some teams do it better than others, and I feel strongly that these are the best metrics as you follow along with the new additions during “scout hiring season.”