Category Archives: NFL draft

Three Reasons Why Drew Fabianich Will Be Good for the Senior Bowl (and Scouting)

28 Wednesday May 2025

Posted by in Getting started, NFL draft, Scouts

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In this week’s Friday Wrap (register for it here), we’ll have an extended interview with Drew Fabianich, the new executive director of the Senior Bowl. Drew’s a longtime friend, and while I’m excited that the biggest all-star game got a very capable replacement for Jim Nagy, but I’m also happy that he’s committed to making the game a real platform for player evaluation and development of people who hope to work in this field.

Here are three reasons why I think Drew will be a real positive for scouts, past, present and future.

Drew has done and seen it all: Not only is Drew a committed scout, but he’s also spent years in coaching and also two stints as a P4 GM (Auburn and West Virginia). That’s the kind of modern perspective that I think will really bring an added dimension to the game.

He’s 100 percent committed to the Senior Bowl’s scout school and wants to expand it: The game annually brings in former players to get a chance to explore scouting, and the league endorses this. Not only is Drew a big fan of the game’s scout school, but he’s got a plan to expand things and give them exposure to what’s happening in the college ranks. “The way it will be different for me is that the league wanted me to put together a collegiate side, to tell (aspiring scouts) exactly how the collegiate side is growing and evolving, and where they could fit in there,” he said. “I will also be putting together, not this summer, but next July, we’re going to open up a scout school to really help the college guys – the student assistants, the recruiting coordinators, the DPPs – to develop young guys to come into this business, and especially give us a pipeline for guys that we would hire as scouting assistants also.” There will be a cost to this new two-day school, but it won’t be excessive. “It’s going to have minimal costs,” he emphasized. “Minimal. Just something to operate, that’s all it’s gonna be. It’s really for us to develop young guys and to find a pipeline to where they’d be interested in coming to work for the Senior Bowl, too.”

He’ll continue to employ former NFL scouts to help in building the roster: One innovation started by Phil Savage and expanded by Nagy was establishing a regional scouting staff populated by former NFL scouts. Countless good evaluators got to stay in the game by helping scour different parts of the country for the game. Some were retired, but some were scouts who were trying to get back in, and working for the game helped keep them sharp and relevant. I’m glad Drew will keep this program going.

I’m pretty excited about Drew’s tenure, and you’ll want to check out the rest of his thoughts in this week’s Wrap. Once again, if you don’t already receive it, I recommend you do. You can register here.

Here’s an Update on Where NFL Front Office Vacancies Are

16 Friday May 2025

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The one question I get this time of year is, where are there jobs open? So maybe I can save myself a couple texts by publishing this rundown of not only where the openings are but my guesses on how the jobs will be filled. I hope you find it helpful.

Executive level (Director of College/Pro Scouting and up)

  • I don’t think the Jaguars are done yet. I”m still in the dark on what’s next, but it seems like they have a long way to go to make their front office resemble the Rams.
  • Speaking of the Rams, they’re down a Senior Personnel Executive due to the loss of Brian Xanders to Jacksonville.
  • Most of the executive-level vacancies with the Jets have been filled. I haven’t heard of any big names getting ready to go to the Big Apple.
  • The Eagles are missing a Senior Director of College Scouting and a Senior Director of Scouting (Anthony Patch and Brandon Hunt, respectively, both gone to Las Vegas). My guess is that they stay in-house to replace them both. I’ve heard Assistant Director of College Scouting Ryan Myers is being elevated to director, for what it’s worth.
  • With the Patch and Hunt additions, in addition to the previous additions, I suspect the Raiders are done.
  • I expect movement on the pro side in Tennessee, but I don’t know what form that will take. I’m not sure if the team will have a pro director, or if the team’s pro scouts will work under someone at the executive level. New AGM Dave Ziegler has an extensive background on the pro side.
  • The Patriots lost their college director this week (Camren Williams).

Road level (National/College/Area/Pro Scout)

  • The Dolphins surprisingly said goodbye to Senior Scout Jim Abrams early in the post-draft process. He still hasn’t been replaced.
  • These are truly weird days because, based on what I’ve heard, the eternally frugal Bengals are replacing one loss (Christian Sarkisian to Northwestern) with not one, but two, hires.
  • I think the Giants are going to stay at two National Scouts since saying goodbye to Mike Derice.
  • If what happens in Jacksonville turns out to be what I expect to happen, there could be a lot of Jaguars scouts who could be on the way out. When/if that happens, I don’t expect them to be replaced. The only thing that could make this plan go awry is that the team has several area scouts with a year left on their respective contracts, and Jax has a reputation for preferring not to let scouts go if their respective contracts are not up.
  • On the pro side, the Rams tend to run pretty lean, so I don’t think either of the Pro Scouts no longer with the Jags (Geep Chryst and Chris Ash) will be replaced. Technically, they’ve already moved Rory Segrest into one of those slots (from the coaching side) already.
  • The sense I get is that former Rams National Scout Michael Pierce is “on the street” and doesn’t have an imminent new post. Between Michael, Derice and Abrams, there are some truly great scouts available right now. And those are just three names; there are many more whose reputation I don’t know as well.
  • Speaking of the Rams, though they do things a little differently, they did carry six area scouts last year. Right now, they have one (1), having either said goodbye to or promoted all six since mid-March. I don’t know exactly how they’ll address all of that, but I don’t think they have enough people in-house to find replacements around the office.
  • New England has a vacancy at Area Scout (Josh Hinch, though he’s soon to be announced as joining another team).
  • I could see movement with the Chargers, given second-year GM Joe Hortiz didn’t make a lot of changes a year ago. I’ve also heard many/most of the team’s scouts’ contracts are up. However, the team has had some pretty good drafts of late, so maybe Hortiz resists the impulse to bring in his own guys just for change’s sake.
  • I wouldn’t be surprised if the Packers or Falcons didn’t replace their recent losses. May be true of the Dolphins as well.
  • I think the Jets will replace Johnathon Stigall (Raiders) in-house. However, I know they’ve been interviewing aggressively and they’ll be bringing in at least one new Area Scout from the college ranks.

Scouting Assistant

  • This is where I expect the most change over the next month now that teams are filling in at higher levels.
  • The Eagles are pretty slim here (they have just two), which means, depending on how the dominoes fall, they may be aggressively looking for replacements soon. Typically, their model is to bring in 3-4 training camp interns and let them fight it out for the open scouting assistant positions, so we may not see clarity at that level in Philly for a while.
  • Looking at the Jaguars again, if GM James Gladstone wants to make his front office an exact duplicate of where he came from, I wouldn’t expect any hires, and maybe even some releases.
  • The Bucs just promoted two Scouting Assistants into more senior roles.
  • With Maya Ana Callender’s exit, the Patriots have a vacancy.
  • I’ve heard the Cardinals and Titans both recently made decisions on hires at this level.

For even more insider-level stuff on scouting, make sure to register for the Friday Wrap here.

Do NFL Scouting Additions Really Mean Anything?

01 Thursday May 2025

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These days, there’s a lot of movement in NFL front offices. That’s just the nature of the post-draft period. Once the picks are in, teams tend to reshape their scouting staffs, especially if there’s a new GM in town.

Often, changes in a team’s scouting lineup are met with great fanfare, especially when a struggling team starts turning the page on some of its longer-serving officials. But is this warranted? And is there any link between the scouts a team might add and their success on following draft days? It’s hard to tell, but here are my thoughts on what to look for when you see faces change in NFL front offices.

Awards and accomplishments: There’s no PFF for scouts. It’s very hard to know which ones are good and which ones just happened to be with good organizations. What’s more, we’re seeing, time and again, that some of the scouts who are most respected by their peers get let go anyway. Despite this, we launched the BART List Awards in 2022 to give scouts a chance to recognize the best of their brethren. Though it’s only been four years, if you know a scout won a BART List Award (as I always try to include in my posts, when relevant), you know that other active NFL scouts think he’s good. I think that carries weight, whether or not his team recognizes it or not.

Their previous organizations: The Lions’ turnaround started when they brought in Brad Holmes from the Rams as the new GM. These days, the Lions and the Rams are perennial playoff teams with outstanding leadership. Last year, new Commanders GM Adam Peters arrived from the 49ers and rebuilt the team’s front office with executives from the Lions (Assistant GM Lance Newmark), Ravens (Director of Player Personnel David Blackburn) and Seahawks (Personnel Executive Scott Fitterer, by way of the Panthers). All four of those organizations (San Francisco, Detroit, Baltimore and Seattle) are NFL bluebloods. Though those new additions (who all arrived in May or later) didn’t draft for Washington in 2024, obviously, I”m confident Peters’ staff is going to bear fruit quickly.

Look at who they are: The Raiders announced Wednesday that they’d be bringing in Johnathon Stigall as the team’s new Assistant Director of College Scouting, and the move drew raspberries from some on Twitter. Really? Here’s what you need to know about Johnathon:

  • He actually played the game at the college level as a running back at DePauw in the late 90s. Scouts who are ex-college players is becoming rare.
  • He has almost 30 years in NFL player evaluation (he’s entering his 27th year).
  • He’s worked for the late Tom Heckert (Browns), Howie Roseman (Eagles), Rick Spielman (Dolphins) and the late Mark Hatley (Bears). Those might not all be household names, but they are all highly respected in NFL circles. Trust me.
  • He was part of a Jets staff that drafted the OROY (Ohio State WO Garrett Wilson) AND the DROY (Cincinnati DC Sauce Gardner) in the same year (2022).
  • We’ve presented the BART List Award four years. He’s won three of them. We hand out 20-30 each year, so it’s not like he’s the one award winner, but it’s still impressive.

That’s a resume. If you’re a Raiders fan, you should feel really good about landing Johnathon. I can assure you new Jets GM Darren Mougey wasn’t happy to see him go.

It’s important to recognize that no team bats 1.000 in the draft. Shoot, if you bat .800 on Day 1 and Day 2 and .500 on Day 3, you’re almost guaranteed to be a perennial playoff team. But there are signs that some teams do it better than others, and I feel strongly that these are the best metrics as you follow along with the new additions during “scout hiring season.”

Does Trading Back Always Work? A 2016 Case Study

21 Monday Apr 2025

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“Trade back!”

It’s the constant chant from the fan of the struggling team with needs everywhere. The thinking is that more picks is always better, and that if you have enough at-bats, you’re sure to get a hit somehow. Well, maybe that’s the perception, but it’s not necessarily the truth. We see this in the 2016 NFL Draft, which is the year we chronicle in Value Picks: The Drama, Decisions and Details Behind Eight Selections in the 2016 NFL Draft. Let’s set the scene.

Analytics-minded Paul Depodesta had just come over from the Mets to be Cleveland’s Chief Strategy Officer, and the team’s philosophy, draft-wise, became quantity over quality. Throw enough picks at the wall, the thinking was, and the law of averages says you have to find at least a few players. After a flurry of pre-draft and draft-day trades, the team wound up with 14 picks, with six of them in the top 100. The deals included:

  • Trading the No. 2 pick and a conditional fifth-rounder to the Eagles for Philadelphia’s first-, third- and fourth-rounders (8, 77 and 100) in 2016 and their first- and second-rounder in 2017.
  • Trading the Eagles’ first-rounder (No. 8 in the draft) and a sixth-rounder (176) to the Titans in exchange for Tennessee’s first- and third-round selections (15 and 76, respectively) in addition to a second-rounder in 2017.
  • Trading their third- and fifth-rounders (77 and 141) to the Panthers in exchange for the Panthers’ third-, fourth- and fifth-rounders (93, 129, 168).
  • Trading their fourth (100) to the Raiders in exchange for Oakland’s fourth- and fifth-rounders (114 and 154).
  • Trading their seventh-rounder (223) to the Dolphins in exchange for a seventh (250) and DC Jamar Taylor.

That’s a lot of trading, and every time, the Browns traded back. But did it work out?

First, let’s look at the players Cleveland drafted, with the number of seasons each played in the NFL and his last season with the Browns.

  • Baylor WO Corey Coleman (1/15): Played five seasons, last one 2017.
  • Oklahoma St. DE Emmanuel Ogbah (2/32): Played nine seasons, last one in 2018.
  • Penn St. DE Carl Nassib (3/65): Played seven seasons, last one 2017.
  • Auburn OT Shon Coleman (3/76): Played seven seasons, last one in 2017.
  • UsC QB Cody Kessler (3/93): Played four seasons, last one in 2017.
  • Wisconsin IB Joe Schobert (4/99): Played seven seasons, last one in 2019.
  • Auburn WO Ricardo Louis (4/114): Played four seasons, last one in 2018.
  • TCU FS Derrick Kindred (4/129): Played three seasons, last one in 2018.
  • Princeton TE Seth DeValve (4/138): Played five seasons, last one in 2018.
  • Baylor WO Jordan Payton (5/154): Played two seasons, last one in 2017.
  • Baylor OT Spencer Drango (5/168): Played four seasons, last one in 2017.
  • Colorado St. WO Rashard Higgins (5/172): Played seven seasons, last one in 2021.
  • La..-Monroe DC Trey Caldwell (5/173): Played one season, last one in 2016.
  • Arizona IB Scooby Wright (7/250): Played three seasons, last one in 2016.

Now let’s look at what matters most: the Browns’ records over the next four seasons.

  • 2016: 1-15
  • 2017: 0-16
  • 2018: 7-8-1
  • 2019: 6-10

Ultimately, the team’s records (especially in 2016 and 2017) are the metric for judging how well the strategy worked. However, let’s look further at how the draftees did.

  • By 2019, not one of their Day 1 and Day 2 picks was on the team. None of them played more than two seasons with the team.
  • By 2020, their next winning season after 2016 (they went 11-5), only one of their draftees (fifth-rounder Higgins) was still with the team.
  • None of the picks played more than nine seasons. All but one of the eight players we profile in Value Picks (Ohio State’s Michael Thomas) played at least nine seasons.
  • Only one (Wisconsin IB Joe Schobert) made a Pro Bowl (and he only made one). 
  • The average NFL player sticks around 3.5 seasons in the league, but only eight of Cleveland’s 14 played more than three. Four played three or fewer.

Trading back can work, and maybe this example is a bit extreme. Still, it’s an illustration of what can happen. Bottom line, if you’re going to trade back, you’d better have conviction on the players still available and a plan for getting help when you finally get to make the picks.

Here’s What I Learned While Writing Value Picks

17 Thursday Apr 2025

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I’ve said this a lot, maybe even in this space, but one of the best things about working in this game is that the learning never stops. That was especially true as I wrote my third (and latest) book, Value Picks, which is available on Amazon right now.

Here are a few things I gathered while putting the book together.

Few teams practice BPA: Every team likes to claim that it took the “best player on the board” at each turn, but that’s just not true. Numerous teams passed on Alabama’s Derrick Henry because they felt set at running back; credit to the Titans for taking him despite planning on making the recently acquired DeMarco Murray their bell cow in 2016. Several teams also overlooked Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott simply because they were set at QB. Not the Cowboys, who had a proven veteran in Tony Romo (though, admittedly, Romo was beset with injuries that eventually ended his career).

Workouts matter: There’s a segment of the scouting community that likes to laugh off the Combine as the “underwear Olympics.” However, as part of former Bears scout Chris Prescott’s chapter late in the book, he dismissed Florida LB Antonio Morrison as a fourth-round possibility because he “was a polarizing player who didn’t work out well.” On the other hand, he says of Texas Tech’s Jakeem Grant (who went 6/186 to the Dolphins) “I remember we didn’t really love him, then he pops whatever 40 time that was, and we kinda got on him late because of how fast he was.” As a receiver with iffy hands who didn’t return punts, if Grant goes out and runs a 4.4, he’s probably a UDFA who’s on a short leash in rookie camp. As it was, because he showed sub-4.2 speed in Lubbock at his pro day, he was given enough runway to develop into a second-team All-Pro in 2020.

Winning involves risk: I devoted a chapter to West Alabama’s Tyreek Hill, who had serious baggage entering the 2016 draft. Most teams wouldn’t touch him due to his character blemishes, but one did, Kansas City. I’d argue that they reaped considerable benefits from rolling the dice. On the other hand, the Saints got feedback from their sources at Ohio State that Michael Thomas could be difficult. Again, they rolled the dice, and for the first few seasons, they were big winners. Ultimately, however, his conduct became a problem. It’s arguable whether his actions outweighed his production, but they definitely got some negative along with the positive. Still, both teams were rewarded, to some degree, by taking a gamble.

Scouts are mostly right: A lot of people aren’t going to want to hear this, but scouts are right more often than not. Draft picks don’t fail in a vacuum. There are reasons some players lose their motivation when they make the money that comes with being an NFL draftee. However, maybe more often, they lose their effectiveness due to injury, multiple scheme changes/poor system fit, or other factors that go unnoticed. Usually, a player’s failing in the league were predicted somewhere in the reports filed by evaluators.

Sixteen Reasons Why ‘Value Picks’ Needs to Be on Your Reading List

10 Thursday Apr 2025

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This week, we’re launching my latest book, Value Picks: The Drama, Decisions and Details Behind Eight Selections in the 2016 NFL Draft.” It’s available in paperback, on Kindle, and on Audible here.

It’s a fun read, if I do say so myself. My original idea was to write a book about Ole Miss’ Laremy Tunsil and the Video Seen ‘Round the World, but as I dug into things, there were so many interesting stories that I had to expand my focus. There’s still plenty about Tunsil in there, but so much more, as well.

I thought I’d pick out 16 reasons why it’s worth putting on your bookshelf. Here goes.

  • Learn about the battle between North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz and Cal’s Jared Goff, and why the Rams ultimately chose Goff.
  • Find out how many teams truly saw both of them as first-rounders, and why (or why not).
  • Read scouts’ memories of what happened when the Tunsil video was played before the draft started.
  • Review which teams nearly rolled the dice on Tunsil before Miami finally took him at 13.
  • Learn why so many wide receivers were drafted before Ohio State’s Michael Thomas (and how they fared).
  • Discover which former NFL GM helped Cowboys owner Jerry Jones decide that Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott would be the pick at 4.
  • Break down the list of concerns teams had about Alabama’s Derrick Henry, and why Tennessee finally pulled his card despite having just traded for an every-down back.
  • Learn about the player comp that prompted Louisville’s Sheldon Rankins to go ahead of other defensive tackles like UCLA’s Kenny Clark, Mississippi State’s Chris Jones and South Carolina State’s Javon Hargrove.
  • Examine the Chiefs’ painstaking draft process that led them to choosing West Alabama’s Tyreek Hill despite his off-field issues, small-school pedigree and limited development while in college.
  • Find out which Bears scouting executive (and future NFL GM) was especially high on Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott.
  • Sort through the various quarterbacks the Cowboys tried to pick before “dumbing into” Prescott.
  • Follow the account of the devastating hit that might have secured West Virginia’s Karl Joseph as a first-round pick.
  • Laugh as you hear which Vikings pick gave the team fits for refusing to practice in socks.
  • Read what Minnesota scouts really thought about sixth-rounder Moritz Bohringer, the German who was the first-ever player drafted without playing college football.
  • Catch up on the account of Jakeem Grant’s sub-4.2 40 at Texas Tech’s pro day (and why his friends and family weren’t overly concerned when he was violently ill shortly afterwards).
  • Consider the disconnect among Browns staffers as team ownership pushed to make analytics a major part of the team’s decision-making.

This is my first book since Scout Speak came out in 2020, and if you enjoyed that one, you’ll love this one. I only write books that I would want to read myself, and this is one I’d order the first day it came out. Give it a shot. I think you’ll find it informative and entertaining.

Looking for Comps in the 2025 NFL Draft? Look Back 10 Years

04 Friday Apr 2025

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So I’ve been looking pretty hard at the 2016 NFL Draft lately — more on that later — and it’s striking how closely it resembles this year’s draft class, especially on Day 1.

First of all, there were two QBs (Cal’s Jared Goff and North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz) who were far and away the top prospects in the draft. Second, pretty much everyone agreed on RB1, Ohio State’s Zeke Elliott. Third, there were five offensive tackles drafted in the first round, with two of them top-10 picks (Notre Dame’s Ronnie Stanley and Michigan State’s Jack Conklin); most mock drafts have 4-5 tackles going on Day 1 this year. Fourth, there will be 3-4 wide receivers who fit into the back half of the round, as Baylor’s Corey Coleman (1/15), Notre Dame’s Will Fuller (1/21), TCU’s Josh Doctson (1/22) and Ole Miss’ LaQuon Treadwell (1/23) did 10 years ago.

If the “model” holds, Miami’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders will be good but not great passers with a lengthy career; Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty will be dominant for 5-6 years before a steady descent; Missouri’s Armand Membou and LSU’s Will Campbell will be steady professionals for a decade; and Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan, Texas’ Matthew Golden, Missouri’s Luther Burden and Ohio State’s Emeka Egbuka will disappoint.

A few other things to look for if this turns out to be a replay of 2016:

  • There won’t be many quarterbacks drafted. In 2016, there were 72. That’s the second-lowest total in the last 10 years if you throw out the 2021 draft, which was an anomaly due to Covid anyway.
  • One of the down-the-line QBs will threaten Ward and Sanders to be the best in class, just like Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott did (he went 4/135 to Dallas). Could the ninth QB drafted this year — which projects to be someone like Syracuse’s Kyle McCord, Ohio State’s Will Howard, Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel or Minnesota’s Max Brosmer — turn out to equal, or even surpass, Ward and/or Sanders?
  • There will be a handful of non-combine invitees who have impressive careers. Middle Tennessee FS Kevin Byard (3/64, Titans), Manitoba’s DT David Onyemata (4/120, Saints), WO Tyreek Hill (5/165, Chiefs) are all still plugging away as they enter 10 years in the league despite getting snubbed in Indianapolis.
  • There will be serious value on the defensive line on Day 3. Entering a decade after the 2016 season, there are four fourth-rounders (the Steelers’ Dean Lowry, Commanders’ Sheldon Day, Bears’ Andrew Billings and Onyemata) and two fifth-rounders (the Bills’ Quinton Jefferson and Lions’ David Reader) who are still on NFL rosters. That’s not common.

Incidentally, there were a lot more interesting facts about 2016 that bear greater consideration. The battle for the top of the draft that pitted Goff and Wentz; the missed opportunity that Alabama’s Derrick Henry and Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott represented to so many teams; receivers like Ohio State’s Michael Thomas, Texas Tech’s Jakeem Grant and Hill who were overlooked for a variety of reasons; and, of course, the unforgettable draft-day story of Ole Miss’ Laremy Tunsil. I’ll be going in-depth on the draft backstories of all eight in my next book, Value Picks: The Drama, Decisions & Details Behind Eight Selections in the 2016 NFL Draft.

It’s coming to Amazon in less than two weeks, and it’s gonna be big, I promise. Keep it on your radar.

A Look Back at How The Pundits Viewed the ’23 and ’24 Drafts

28 Friday Mar 2025

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Wow. We’re a month out from the 2025 NFL Draft already. Around here, that means we do our annual sweep of seven top mock draft services to see who’s rising and falling. It’s an interesting snapshot of the draft class, even if it’s far from scientific and doesn’t actually represent what the teams are thinking.

But how accurate are the pundits one month out? It’s a question we started asking ourselves, and there’s only one way to find out: by reviewing their work. So here’s a look at what the seven services we review (Pro Football Network, PFF, CBS’ Chris Trapasso, The Draft Scout, ESPN, The Athletic’s Dane Brugler and Walter Football) said about the last two draft classes.

2023 DRAFT

  • Top five predicted picks: CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State; Bryce Young, QB, Alabama; Will Anderson, DE, Alabama; Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida; and Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech.
  • Actual top five picks: Young, Stroud, Anderson, Richardson, then Illinois DC Devon Witherspoon to the Seahawks. Witherspoon’s average draft slot (ADS) was 14.4.
  • Biggest misses: All seven services had Kentucky QB Will Levis going in the first round, with an average draft slot of 7.85. Levis wound up going 2/33 to the Titans. Also, all seven services had Penn State DC Joey Porter Jr. going in the first round (ADS 19.0), but he slid to the first pick of the second round.
  • Other surprises: Texas OH Bijan Robinson went 1/8 to the Falcons despite an ADS of 17.1, though, in fairness, we’ve learned the Falcons often go against the grain. Also, Georgia OB Nolan Smith went 1/30 to the Eagles despite an ADS of 17.5.
  • Kudos: Only Trapasso had Mississippi State DC Emmanuel Forbes going in the first round a month before the draft; he had Forbes at 1/24 (he went 1/16 to the Commanders). Also, only two services (PFF and The Draft Scout’s Matt Miller) had Kansas St. DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah in the first round, and both nailed his draft slot (31). Further hats off to PFF for sticking with the prediction and nailing the pick a week before the draft (Miller had abandoned Anudike-Uzomah as a Day 1 selection by then).

2024 DRAFT

  • Top five predicted picks: USC QB Caleb Williams; LSU QB Jayden Daniels; North Carolina QB Drake Maye; Ohio State WO Marvin Harrison Jr.; and Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy.
  • Actual top five picks: Williams, Daniels, Maye, Harrison and Notre Dame OT Joe Alt.
  • Biggest misses: All 22 players predicted to go in Round 1 actually did, so congratulations are in order. On the other hand, not one service, over the course of seven different mocks lasting from June until the week before the draft, ever identified Florida WO Ricky Pearsall (1/31, 49ers) as a first-rounder. Also worth noting: a week before the draft, no one saw South Carolina WO Xavier Legette (1/32, Panthers) as a first-rounder.
  • Other surprises: Things were a little bumpy for Pro Football Network, which was the only service to leave Texas DT Byron Murphy (1/16, Seahawks) off its first-round mock. Similarly, Walter Football was the only site to overlook Duke OT Graham Barton (1/26, Bucs) and CBS’ Trapasso was the only one who snubbed Oklahoma OT Tyler Guyton (1/29, Cowboys).
  • Kudos: ESPN’s Matt Miller (12) and Walter Football (13) were the only two services that saw Oregon QB Bo Nix (1/12, Broncos) as a Day 1 pick. Miller’s website, The Draft Scout, stuck with the prediction on Nix a week before the draft and nailed it, as did Walter Football (Trapasso had him at 15 a week before the draft; no other services saw him as a Day 1 selection). Also, only Pro Football Network (13) and Brugler (21) had Washington QB Michael Penix as a first-rounder; he went 1/8 to the Falcons.

We’ll take a look at how everyone did a week out from the draft in a few weeks. Obviously, judging draft services based on such a limited sample size does nothing to really gauge who’s best. But it’s fun, right?

For a look at which players all seven services a month before this spring’s draft, make sure to register for the Friday Wrap, which comes out this evening. Do that here.

Which New GM Has the Best Chances of Success Quickly?

14 Friday Feb 2025

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Your turn to play GM. Given the following, who would you want to be? Mike Borgonzi (Titans), John Spytek (Raiders), Darren Mougey (Jets) or the to-be-named Jacksonville GM? 

TITANS (3-14)

  • Day 1: Tennessee “earned” the top pick.
  • Picks: 8 (a first, a second, two fourths, two fifths, a sixth and a seventh)
  • Head coach: Brian Callahan enters Year 2; it’s hard to judge him, given the hand he’s been dealt.
  • QBs in 2024: Neither Will Levis or Mason Rudolph (who’s a free agent) would be the starter next season in a perfect world.
  • Division: The Texans went two rounds into the playoffs. The Colts barely missed the playoffs, and the Jaguars fired both their head coach and GM. The Texans probably bounce back next season, but the Colts are a question mark unless QB Anthony Richardson takes a big leap forward.

RAIDERS (4-13)

  • Day 1: Las Vegas has the sixth pick.
  • Picks: 10 (a first, a second, two thirds, a fourth, a fifth, three sixths and a seventh)
  • Head coach: Pete Carroll is a youthful 73, and has a history of success.
  • QBs in 2024: None of Gardner Minshew, Desmond Ridder or Aidan O’Donnell were the answer. 
  • Division: Stacked. The Chiefs went to the Super Bowl, and the Chargers (11-6) and Broncos (10-7) both made the playoffs. Plus, all three have QBs who are in their respective primes, or on the rise.

JAGUARS (4-13)

  • Day 1: Jacksonville holds the fifth pick in the draft.
  • Picks: 10 (a first, a second, two thirds, two fourths, a fifth, two sixths and a seventh)
  • Head coach: Liam Coen arrives fresh off his success in Tampa Bay, but the bigger issue is that, with Executive VP of Football Operations Tony Boselli around, the new GM will have to fight to be heard.
  • QB in 2024: Though he finished the season on injured reserve, the team has Trevor Lawrence on an extended deal. He probably hasn’t been the QB everyone thought he would be, but he’s clearly the class of these four teams. 
  • Division: As discussed earlier, the Titans are in turmoil and the Colts are unsettled under center, though the Texans underplayed in 2024 and should be better next season.

JETS (5-12)

  • Day 1: New York holds the seventh pick in the draft. 
  • Picks: Eight (a first, a second, a third, a fourth, two fifths and two sixths, but no seventh)
  • Head coach: Aaron Glenn comes to New York hoping to recreate the magic he was part of in Detroit.
  • QB in 2024: The Jets just cut their starter, Aaron Rodgers. 
  • Division: The Bills are among the best teams in the NFL. However, the Patriots are still a ways away and the Dolphins underachieved in 2024.  

Which one would you choose? Not an easy choice. To me, Spytek has the hardest job given his division. The command situation gives me pause in Jacksonville, despite having Lawrence around. That leaves the Jets and Titans. I think I lean toward the Jets given the promise of Glenn, along with three picks in the top 100 vs. just two for Tennessee. Tough call, though. 

Getting to Know New Jets GM Darren Mougey

06 Thursday Feb 2025

Posted by in NFL draft, Scouts

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With pieces on new GMs Mike Borgonzi (Tennessee) and John Spytek (Las Vegas) completed the last two weeks, we turned to Darren Mougey, who’s taken over the same role with the Jets. It was easy to get takes (all of them positive) on Mougey, who’s been aggressively reshaping New York’s front office in his first few weeks on the job.

Here’s what his colleagues said about “Moug” this week:

  • “Really very smart. That’s one thing that really stands out, and he’s a good person. These guys are kinda hard to find sometimes, that have the personality and also a football mind. I knew right off the bat he’d be where he is, because I’ve been around so many GMs. I think he encompasses what you need in a GM. First of all, he’s a good guy to keep things together, he’s fair, he’s a pleasant guy, and he’s all football. Very likeable. He doesn’t say much, he’s kinda on the quite side, but he’s all football and he’ll definitely make the Jets a better program.” 
  • “Moug, as he is known across the League, is highly respected among scouts and coaches. He is an incredible evaluator with many years of experience scouting and playing. He is extremely detail-oriented, efficient and organized, and uses a very thorough process in all of his work. His leadership traits will make him a great GM and he has the personality to click with anyone and everyone. (I) have no doubt that he will be very successful in this next step of his career leading the Jets.”
  • “Always a good day to do a school call with Moug. Really sharp, good evaluator, has strong opinions on players, always positive with school staffs, easy guy to connect with. He’s always willing to help out another scout if they needed anything. Never afraid to roll up his sleeves to get a job done.”
  • “If you know Moug, no one is surprised he got the job. He’s a great person that is detailed and never afraid of the work that needs to get done. But what really separates Moug is he is really good person and he truly loves the game of football.
    Working with him for (almost a decade), you could always trust that the work would get done with Moug, and he is fun to just sit down and talk ball with because he  has the confidence to answer questions but still has a low ego.” 

  • “I would say that he is extremely bright, very smart, and has a good eye for talent. He is (also) very adaptable from the standpoint of being able to relate with different types of people, and I think that stems from just his experience in football and sports and being around just different guys in the locker room. So he’s very relatable. People gravitate towards him. Great personality. I would also say that he’s somebody that I think would be a collaborative type of guy where he would take input from different people and respect that, but yet at the very end of the day would be the guy that would make the decision . . . he does not come across to me as like an authoritarian-type leader where you know it’s his way and not really taking a lot of input. I could just see him being like a guy that would encourage that kind of culture, a collaborative culture . . . I think he’s gonna do really well in the job. I think he’s a guy that’s gonna be decisive when it comes to . . . making decisions. It looks like he and (head coach Aaron Glenn) are putting together a pretty nice coaching staff, a nice mix of young guys and veteran guys, so . . . I think he’s gonna do a really good job in New York. I’m excited for him, for sure.”

Before we go, a fun fact: the 2015 Broncos scouting staff featured Assistant Director of College Scouting Adam Peters, National Scout John Spytek, and Mougey, who was then an area scout covering the Southwest. Within 10 years, all three of them would ascend to the GM chair with NFL teams. 

Want to learn which other teams are “breeding” future GMs? Make sure you’re reading the Friday Wrap, which comes out Fridays (duh) at 7:30 p.m. EST. Register for it here.