As a Saints fan, it’s been frustrating to see many of the team’s better players miss game after game. The narrative has developed that these injuries are simply bad luck, an unpredictable but expected aspect of a violent game. One Saints beat writer has even been dismissive towards fans’ frustrations with players like WO Michael Thomas, who has played only a handful of games over the last three seasons despite what seem like minimal injuries.

Is the “bad luck” narrative true? Or is there a way to predict which teams, and which players, will be particularly beset by injuries that lead to missed games?

Here’s my take on it, especially as it pertains to the Saints. Under Assistant GM Jeff Ireland, who has revitalized the team since his arrival in 2015, the team has drafted players with exceptional athleticism. When crafted and developed, such a player  can win matchups and be a disruptor on defense or a playmaker on offense. On the other hand, athletes as football players tend to be more greyhound than bulldog. When things aren’t just right, they lack the will to grind. That could be why, year after year, the team gets high marks for talent but has trouble keeping its players on the field. Even though they have changed doctors and even hired sports science professionals aiming at improving player health, injuries have stacked up this season.

Furthermore, I think that if you have bulldogs in each positional room, you’re more likely that they’ll put pressure on their peers to answer the bell on game day despite the nicks accrued during the season. I know personally that players have deferred to their agents before deciding if they’d play through injuries.

Of course, this is just my theory. Am I off base? I turned to several friends in the business to get their opinions.

• Former Bills GM Doug Whaley, who’s now running the entire personnel side for XFL 3.0, said that, most definitely, a team could draft for health and toughness. “I think you can if you bring in players with the majority of the following qualities: Are they junk yard dogs? Is failure not an option? Do they hate to lose more than like to win? Are they dedicated to their craft on, and more importantly off, the field?”
• Three-time NFL GM Randy Mueller said he thinks “you can develop toughness, but more from a mental standpoint, not physical toughness.”  He’s more philosophical about injuries: “I just think you have to plan on guys getting hurt — every year. It’s not ‘if’ but ‘when.'”
• Former Bengals executive Jim Lippincott seems to lean more toward my thinking. “One of the true secrets of scouting is predicting the future,” he texted. “When we study players, we most certainly are aware of how many games a player plays in college..(the most important ability is dependability). . . You can put together a draft class and sign free agents with their availability history foremost in your mind. However, money makes players act differently, and who knows who is counseling the player on how to handle injury!!!”
• Former Bears GM Jerry Angelo is similar to Lippincott in his thinking. “You want every player that you have in your locker room there because they love the game as demonstrated through their work ethic and competitive nature,” Jerry wrote. “They hold each other accountable with a ‘Team First’ attitude. That’s the culture all coaches and organizations want and strive to build. Saying that, each year teams need to fill holes, upgrade their roster and try to accumulate as much talent as they can to compete favorably each season. In doing so, they may compromise certain intangibles, that are integral tenets to winning. The line is so fine, you don’t know when you’ve crossed it. How much risk are you willing to take is the litmus test for every team.”
• Former Titans executive Blake Beddingfield initially disagreed with my premise “Not sure I can answer that,” he texted. “Even players with a history of playing every game get hurt. I have seen players with bodies and frames that make you say durability, but they are always hurt. (Then,) players like (former Titans OH) Chris Johnson . . . looked frail (but) never got hurt.” After discussing this with him, however, he seemed to agree that some players are just tougher than others, citing Rams DT Aaron Donald’s durability despite his violent playing style, as well as former Oilers offensive lineman Bruce Matthews and his brother, former Browns linebacker Clay Matthews, who played almost four decades between them despite playing tough positions physically. 

The draft, by its very nature, is a very inexact science. Still, I believe tough teams are built on draft day by working to put hardy, tough players at key places in the locker room. They create positive peer pressure, especially as the season wears on and the temptation to take games off gets greater.

Am I crazy? Perhaps. Make sure you’re keeping up with people who are a lot smarter than I am by reading our weekly newsletter, the Friday Wrap. Register for it here.

 

In the last two weeks, scouts with decades of experience in player evaluation have been sent packing by their respective teams. How is this so, you might ask? Don’t you want seasoned people helping you pick the players for your team?

I admit it’s hard to understand. Let me try to make sense of it.

• There was a time when old coaches in the fourth quarter of their respective careers became NFL scouts for a number of reasons: they primarily scouted regions where they’d worked; NFL teams had healthy pension programs; and it gave them a chance to get away from the weekly grind of trying to win on Saturday. In many cases, these scouts weren’t career-minded. They were looking to wind down their careers but weren’t on a GM path. A big percentage of younger people who came into the industry had connections to owners and others in the business; there has always been a lot of nepotism in the NFL.  However, there was not a substantial number of young up-and-comers because teams were mostly hiring scouts based on their experience.
• During this time, team ownership was dominated by the Maras, Rooneys, Wilsons and others who saw teams (at least partially) as part of a city’s profile and heritage rather than as an investment. Obviously, given the financial strength of the league and its teams, this attracted a new class of owners who were attracted to the game, but also were attracted to what teams would add to their respective portfolios. Think Dallas’ Jerry Jones when he first entered the league, or more recently, David Tepper in Carolina. As those new owners have gained power, they are less constrained by the traditions of the game. They have been willing to expand the size of scouting departments — in the last 30 years, most teams have gone from 5-10 scouts/advisors to an average of 20 — and, slowly, improve pay. At the same time, however, most are dumping pensions and other long-term investments in scouts. This has led to a tendency to make shorter-term commitments to scouts and evaluators.
• These new owners are also open to new ways of doing things, and have themselves often used technology and analytics-driven methods to accomplish business success. They are therefore prone to wanting to apply those ideas to football. Sometimes this translates, sometimes it doesn’t. However, it lends itself to the idea that intelligence can be gathered without the human element. This is exacerbated by the distinctly “human” aspect of scouting. Football evaluation has never been solely about what happens between the lines; injuries, personalities, the money involved in the game and other factors greatly impact a player’s NFL success. New-guard owners are also more prone to looking at their teams as a form of entertainment more so than a sport. A sport imparts values and a culture, whereas forms of entertainment are eminently disposable and agnostic.
• While all of this was happening, fantasy football was taking off across the sports landscape, giving rank-and-file fans a taste of team-building. Simultaneously, colleges were rolling out sport management programs to capitalize on this, promising undergrads a chance to live their dreams of working in pro sports. This led to a swell of candidates looking to break into the industry. Anyone on Twitter can sift through and find hundreds, if not thousands, of aspiring scouts and evaluators. Just check their bios.

Bottom line, you have a business model where success is hard to measure, with people at the top of the pyramid lacking experience in hiring, and thousands of young professionals — many of them very talented — aiming to get in. Simultaneously, owners and executives are under relentless pressure from the media and social media on how to do things. It makes for a difficult path to getting hired. Good luck.

If you follow me on Twitter, and you’re new, welcome! I’m glad you’re here. 

Anyway, you might have started following ITL due to the scouting news we’ve posted over the past week, and there’s more where that came from. At the same time, there are a few things you need to know that might make the next few weeks a little smoother, especially if your favorite team pops up in one of my tweets.

Changes announced this week have been in the works for weeks, maybe months: I bumped into one of the scouts released this week last fall, at a college football game. He told me then he would probably be out right after the draft. It had nothing to do with his performance, by the way. It was something else entirely, which brings me to my next point.

Scout terminations, more often than not, are related to relationships, not performance: Partly because scouting is so subjective, it’s very hard to measure a scout’s effectiveness. That leads to scouts and executives being hired and fired primarily due to their relationships with the GM or others in leadership positions. 

Scouts usually work on two-year contracts: That’s why, sometimes, a new GM will come in and not make many (or any) changes. If all or most of his scouts have a year left on their deals, they might as well spend the year and see who’s good and not so good, then release them with no further obligations. 

It takes a while for a scouting department to come together: Scouting departments are a little like an offensive line. They take a little while to mesh, especially if they are working for a first-time GM. This time next year, you might be really, really excited about the players your favorite team has picked. On the other hand, maybe you won’t. If you aren’t, be patient. Things will probably improve. 

A good QB can really cover for a struggling scouting staff (and a bad one can mask a good scouting staff): Going back the last 10 years, the Patriots didn’t pick in the first round four seasons (2013, 2016, 2017 and 2020), and none of their six picks have gone to the Pro Bowl (according to Wikipedia). It’s been a bit of a rough patch, but because their QBs have been Brady and Jones, they’ve remained a pretty successful franchise. Bottom line, your team’s scouts are probably not as bad (or as good) as you think they are. 

At the end of the day, getting to understand why some teams draft well and others don’t takes time. If you’d rather learn more, I recommend my book, Scout Speak, which is loaded with war stories, insights and weighty quotes from dozens of scouts, active and former. It’s a quick read and, I think, a fun one, too. It’s also under $13. Check it out. If you’re not a big reader, it’s also available on Audible.

Still not sold? Register for our newsletter, the Friday Wrap. It’s free, and chock full of information on scouts, agents and the business of football. I think you’ll like it.

 

 

This week, with the NFL Draft starting Thursday night, I thought it would be fun to ask three of my friends who used to run teams’ drafts to tell me how they’d approach the draft for one specific team. I asked them to look at the Saints, who are in an interesting position with plenty of needs and decent draft capital. After we led off the week with former Jets Director of College Scouting Jeff Bauer Tuesday, we continue with former Giants and Bears executive Greg Gabriel.

Before we even begin to look at what the Saints do, let’s look at the draft as a whole. I have been involved in the NFL Draft as a scout, scouting director, consultant or media member going back 40 years to 1982. I can honestly say that this is one of the most unique drafts I have ever seen. Why unique? Because there is no consensus anywhere in the draft, from the first pick on down.

We could go through every position and probably none of the 32 clubs would agree on even the order of the top five players in each group. I talk to people in the league daily and this is the one thing that stands out. Though it’s impossible, it would be fun to get the 32 NFL clubs to give us their top 32 players in order. I guarantee there would be about 42-45 different names, and it would be hilarious seeing the difference in how players are rated. That’s what makes the evaluation business so unique. We also have to look at the fact that each club has a different view as to what they look for at each position. 

In my estimation, the Saints need to come away with a tackle, wide receiver and quarterback with their first three picks.

Offensive tackle

The Saints are in a good situation with two picks in the middle of the first (Nos. 16 and 19) and a pick in the middle of the second round (No. 49). In my opinion, after losing OT Terron Armstead in free agency, they have to select a left tackle early, i.e., either at 16 or 19. The first round-caliber offensive tackles are very good, led by Alabama’s Evan Neal and NC State’s Ikem Ekwonu. The others well worth being selected in the first round are Mississippi State’s Charles Cross, Northern Iowa’s Trevor Penning and Central Michigan’s Bernhard Raimann. Neal, Ekwonu and Cross will all be gone by the time the Saints pick at 16, but there is a chance Penning could still be there. If it was me, and Penning was available, it wouldn’t take me long to get the card turned in. Of course, it’s no sure thing Penning is available and the Saints may want to trade up a few slots to assure themselves of getting him. That scenario would be discussed in pre-draft meetings this week.

Wide receiver

If Penning is gone, 16 may be a bit too high for Raimann, but 19 would be ideal. If that’s the case, what do the Saints do at 16? Well, wide receiver is also a need. The Saints have a great receiver in oft-injured Michael Thomas and a solid compliment in Tre’Quan Smith. What they don’t have is a receiver who can take the top off the defense, and this draft has several receivers who can do that. Many should be available at 16.

One of the top names is Alabama’s Jameson Williams, who is the “burner”-type receiver the Saints need. The problem with Williams is he’s coming off ACL surgery and probably won’t be ready to play until midseason at best. Do the Saints pull the trigger on Williams, knowing he will miss time? That is a decision that only GM Mickey Loomis can make. Luckily for the Saints, there are other speed receivers in this draft that could be there in the middle of the first round. They include two from Ohio State in Chris Olave, who is a 4.38 guy, and teammate Garrett Wilson, who has similar speed. The other speed receiver who could be available at that point of the draft is Penn State’s Jahan Dotson, a 4.43 guy. Any of these three would upgrade the Saints’ receiver corps dramatically.

Quarterback

The quarterback position is also a question mark. With future hall of fame Drew Brees retired, Jameis Winston is the heir apparent, but is Jameis really the guy? The Saints signed former Bear, Cowboy and Bengal Andy Dalton during free agency, but at this point of his career, Dalton is an ideal backup, not a starter. 

The quarterback class in 2022 is not ideal. There are some good players, but no prospects like last year, when five quarterbacks were drafted in the top 15 picks. This year, like at every other position, there is no consensus No. 1 QB. Some may say the best quarterback prospect is Liberty’s Malik Willis, while others may say it’s Pitt’s Kenny Pickett and others Ole Miss’s Matt Corral or Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder. When there is no consensus, it’s hard to know who’s right. We won’t know the answer for several years, but each GM selecting a QB hopes that he got the right one, obviously.

While it may be risky for the Saints to select a QB in the opening round, it’s not out of the question. As I write this, the chances are very good that only one QB will be selected before the Saints pick at 16. The big question is, how highly rated are the top QBs in the eyes of Assistant GM Jeff Ireland and his staff? Is there one worthy of being selected in the middle of the first round?

If the Saints do in fact select a quarterback, and, say, an offensive tackle with their other first round pick, they could easily get a very good speed receiver in the second round. Burners like Cincinnati’s Alec Pierce, Western Michigan’s Skyy Moore, Memphis’ Calvin Austin and South Alabama’s Jalen Tolbert may still be available come pick No. 49.

One thing is certain: regardless of what direction the Saints decided to go, it will make for drama and a fun viewing Thursday and Friday night. 

This week, with the NFL Draft starting Thursday night, I thought it would be fun to ask three of my friends who used to run teams’ drafts to tell me how they’d approach the draft for one specific team. I asked them to look at the Saints, who are in an interesting position with plenty of needs and decent draft capital. We lead off the week with former Jets Director of College Scouting Jeff Bauer.

When your team finishes No. 32 (dead last) in passing, 30th in third-down conversions, 28^th in total yards per game and 28^th in average yards per rush (3.9), it’s no secret where your focus should be. Fortunately for the Saints, they are in position to get some much-needed help.

With the Nos. 16 and 19 picks in the opening round, along with No. 49 (the 17th pick in the second round), they’ve got some ammo. I believe that with those three picks, they’d love to get three players from four positions: quarterback, wide receiver, offensive tackle and tight end (though maybe not in that order).

The Saints will be tempted to draft a QB at 16 or 19, but I don’t see the value there. Willis is the only QB that I feel warrants a top-half-of-first-round grade, Pitt’s Kenny Pickett, Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder, Ole Miss’ Matt Corral and North Carolina’s Sam Howell all should be there, but I feel any of them would be a big stretch that early. Our rule for the top half of the first round was that any pick would have to be an immediate starter who could develop into a highly productive NFL player. All those QBs have concerns, in my eyes, except for Willis, and even Willis has some questions.

So what should the Saints do at 16 and 19? The best value very well could be at tackle and wide receiver, two positions of need for the Saints. I see no way that Alabama’s Evan Neal or NC State’s Ikem Ekwonu make it to 16, and I would be shocked to see Mississippi State’s Charles Cross make it there, but if he does, it would be a great get. The other tackle I think the Saints would love at 16 would be Northern Iowa’s Trevor Penning, a dominant, nasty guy at the Senior Bowl. If the Saints can walk away with either of these tackles at 16, that’s a major success.

With the other pick, the Saints could find good value at receiver. Alabama’s Jameson Williams was my top guy at that position prior to his ACL injury. While that’s a serious injury, today’s doctors do marvelous jobs with knees today. He might be restricted early, but to get this talent in the late teens is a no-brainer. If the team goes in a different direction, Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson, USC’s Drake London, Arkansas’ Treylon Burks and Ohio State’s Chris Olave all have value in that area. I also like Georgia’s George Pickens, maybe more than others. He’s physical and strong with great length, and has all the tools, but was a victim of a run-first offense and a limited quarterback while in Athens.

With the Saints’ second-round pick, the team could look at quarterback if any of those listed early fall to that spot. However, another player to watch would be Colorado State’s Trey McBride, who is, in my mind, the top tight end in the draft. Given that New Orleans would walk away with a top offensive tackle, a top-flight wide receiver and a three-down tight end, that would change the team’s offense immediately.

Wednesday: Former Giants and Bears executive Greg Gabriel