Adding It All Up

18 Monday Apr 2016

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My friend Justin VanFulpen of FootballNextLevel created an interesting list today that you should check out. It’s a list I’ve been wanting to compile for some time, but haven’t ever gotten around to. You can check it out here. Basically, Justin ran down the number of players, by position, that have been drafted over the last five years. Though none of the totals come as a shock, it’s still a fascinating feature and I encourage you to check it out.

By the way, first a shameless plug: Justin and I collaborate on a weekly podcast on the football business. You can check that out here.

Anyway, it’s very interesting how many agents describe their clients as “late-rounders.” The draft is a funny thing, and you never know what’s going to happen on draft day. I get it. However, on average, three fullbacks are drafted per year. So how is it that every agent who reps a fullback claims his guy is a ‘late-rounder.’ The average number of kickers and punters drafted annually — combined! — is about three. Yet any time someone tweets about a punter/kicker, he’s almost always described as a late-round prospect. Well, unless he’s the top-rated guy at his position, he ain’t getting drafted.

This is one of the fundamental problems I have with draft coverage. Look, it’s entertainment, and trying to really deconstruct such things is like trying to fact-check an article from People magazine. Still, when you look at the number of late-round and undrafted players that make a real impact on the NFL, it’s substantial. So why doesn’t anyone take a real look at the number of players that can logically be expected to get a UDFA deal? It’s something I’ve always wondered, and it’s a number that I think is relevant as agents hope against hope that their clients will get drafted, or at least signed, in a week and a half.

Here’s an idea: let’s use Justin’s numbers to guess as to how many players per position will even get UDFA deals. If we total up the number of players by position are drafted, we get 254.8 (call it 255) over 15 positions. Breaking it down by percentage of draftees, here’s what it looks like QBs 4.3 percent; running backs, 8.2 percent; fullbacks, 1.2 percent; wide receivers, 12.3 percent; tight ends, 5.3 percent; tackles, 8.5 percent; guards, 6.4 percent; centers, 2.4 percent; defensive ends, 9.6 percent; defensive tackles, 7.6 percent; linebackers, 12.8 percent; cornerbacks, 12.9 percent; safeties, 7.1 percent; kickers, .7 percent; and punters, .5 percent.

Each team brings in, on average, about 10 undrafted free agents, so with 32 teams, that’s about 320 guys signed after the draft. Applying those percentages to each position, the number of non-draftees signed after draft, by position, is 14 quarterbacks (plus 11 drafted means about 25 on contract); 26 running backs (plus 21 drafted means about 47 on contract); four fullbacks (plus 3, or 7 on contract); 39 wide receivers (plus 31, 70 on contract); 17 tight ends (30); 27 tackles (49); 21 guards (37); eight centers (14); 31 defensive ends (55); 24 defensive tackles (44); 41 linebackers (74); 41 cornerbacks (74); 23 safeties (41); two kickers (4) and two punters (3).

Now, is there a place where you can truly find the top, say, 41 safeties available in the NFL draft? No, not really. The industry uses NFLDraftScout.com, and while those guys do a great job, they’re far from infallible. There are just too many schools, too many players, too many NFL teams and too many variables.

Bottom line, there is a finite number of players that can even be called possibilities as UDFAs. Keep this in mind as you hear the various players from smaller schools and less popular positions called “late-round or camp possibilities.”

 

 

How The Draft Works: My Take

15 Friday Apr 2016

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On Wednesday, I had lunch with an old friend. Actually, he’s more than an old friend; he’s a former business partner. In fact, if it weren’t for this friend, Troy, there’s no way I’d be in the football business. We started a small print draft publication, Lone Star Football, in the late 90s, and to show you how long-ago-and-far-away it was, we didn’t even have a website. Anyway, though it never took off, from its ashes sprung Inside the League. I wouldn’t have had the guts to start ITL if it weren’t for Lone Star Football, so for that, I’ll always tip my cap to Troy.

Anyway, we try to have lunch once a year at a Houston-area restaurant, and conversation always turns to the draft. In the course of Wednesday’s conversation, I told him that I had started ITL with the intention of learning exactly how and why teams drafted the way they do. Fourteen years later, I’m far from accomplishing that goal. However, there are three things I’ve learned. Or at least think I’ve learned. Here they are:

  • Most teams see the first four rounds as the time they have to take players they love and reasonably expect to start in their first year-and-a-half of play. These guys have to make the team and excel. The first four rounds are, for the most part, a very risk-averse time for most teams, so of the 120-150 players they rate as draftable, the first four picks will most certainly come from this group.
  • After the first four rounds, it’s lottery time. That’s when teams are mostly going to do one of two things. They’re either going to take a guy they thought was a sure Top-120 guy (even though they may wonder why he’s fallen so far) or they’re going to take a guy whose athleticism they’ve fallen in love with despite his lack of football experience, or acumen, or both. This is especially true of rounds 6 and 7. This tends to be where you see some real workout warriors picked. The last three picks are seen as expendable, for the most part. Why? Simple. It’s because no GM ever got fired because of the guy he picked, or didn’t pick, in the fifth round.
  • Teams are very, very, very sensitive to what other teams think. By now, you’ve probably seen the text Texans scout Rob Kisiel accidentally sent. Though it’s gotten way more play than it deserves – hasn’t everyone sent a misplaced text by now? – the substance of the text is similar to what most scouts send, i.e., brief, polite conversation followed by inquiries into who else has expressed interest. If you read Thursday’s post on our blog, you know several teams reached out to Texas Tech speed demon Jakeem Grant over the last month, wanting to know who else was reaching out to him. Before I got into this business, I thought all NFL teams intuitively knew the players inside and out, regardless of what others thought, and didn’t really care about other teams’ favorites. Having been doing this for almost two decades now, I know that isn’t the case.

 

Here’s What Scout Interest in a Non-Combine Invitee Looks Like

14 Thursday Apr 2016

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This time of year, I get lots of questions from newer agents about how they can drive interest in their clients, and what real interest from NFL teams even looks like. Do teams play it close to the vest, afraid their interest will be exposed? Or do they let it all hang out, throwing caution to the wind in an attempt to get as much info as possible on a player they like?

To get these answers, I called my former right-hand man at ITL, Houston-based Murphy McGuire, who passed the NFLPA exam last summer and who now represents Texas Tech WO/KR Jakeem Grant, who set the Internet on fire last month with his performance at the Red Raiders’ pro day. I’ll turn it over to Murphy on what Jakeem’s experience has been over the past three-plus months.

“When we signed him, I was of the belief he would be a late pick. He had a late-round grade. Now, in January, he was coming off a huge bowl game against LSU, and that really helped him a lot. Of course, he was also an All-American as a return guy, but his size is always the first thing teams talk about. At his bowl game (the College Gridiron Showcase in Bedford, Texas), he measured at 5-5 and 5/8, so he’s 5-6 in cleats. How many 5-6 players have been successful in the NFL?

“Anyway, I knew going into the CGS that we needed a good week, and he had a huge week, really lit it up, and talked to every team. All teams interviewed him, which was good, and created a really good vibe for us. Then we waited. I think there were two weeks from then until the last wave of invites to the combine, and there were 4-5 scouts that texted me and asked if Jakeem got a combine invite, and I said, ‘no, still nothing.’ I thought the scouts would hep push the needle for him, but they didn’t seem to, so no combine invite. But he said, ‘I don’t care, I’m gonna prove everyone wrong.’ He has a permanent chip on his shoulder. I mean, he set the all-time receiver mark at Texas Tech, which is kinda known for throwing the ball, so nothing deterred him.

“We got through that time, so he was training at D1 Sports Training in Lubbock (in February), and I got good feedback from his trainers there, but no calls through the combine and into early March. I maybe got two texts from scouts until his pro day on March 11.

“His pro day was crazy. He ran a stupid 40, had 15 reps and threw them up like Mighty Mouse, had a broad jump around 10 and his vertical was about 37 inches, so it was good. Anyway, I started getting calls then. His pro day was on a Friday (March 11), and I got a call from a national scout right after the pro day. He wanted to see him catch punts, but before that, wanted to huddle with his GM and scouts. That following Monday, (the national scout) reached back out, and that’s the week when we got calls, texts, emails, and I think that first week after (pro day) he had one workout, and the next week none, but we set up three the following week. Then this week, he had a Top 30 visit, and he has one next week. So far, he’s gotten four total workouts in Lubbock, plus two top 30 visits. He even had two workouts on the same day last week, one in the morning and one toward the afternoon. One team flew in the day before the workout, went to dinner with him and got to know him, and then the other flew in his special teams coach and watched him catch 7-8 punts, met him, then left. They really liked him.

“So overall, interest didn’t really start until after pro day. It’s a little out of the norm, his 40 time, but I would tell any agent who has a guy with a UDFA or late-round grade, call a scout or text a scout. A lot of times, scouts will respond to a text way faster (than a call). Email is OK, too, but I like to text them. I feel like I actually get more back from them that way. It’s convenient. He may be thinking, I’m not gonna call this (agent), but let me text him and start a dialogue. But most of them initiated contact.

“The one (scout who contacted me) today, about 48 hours ago, they told me, we’re not bring him in for a Top 30, and it was a scout that wasn’t even at the pro day who’s been talking to me. And he asked me, ‘how’s the interest level going,’ so I told him about the Top 30 visit and the workouts, and said, “I want to let you know, there’s a lot of interest.’ So I think I leveraged nothing into something. Then two days later, I got an email saying they want to bring him in, and when’s the best day? With a young (agent), you might be intimidated, but don’t be arfraid to push back. Say, ‘look, I understand your (situation), but there is interest, and if you want to do something with him, you might need to bring him in.’ I think I did a decent job of pushing back a little back.

“The first workout, one of the special teams coaches texted me, and then the last three reached out to Jakeem or me, and said, ‘we want to do this.’ Both of the Top 30 visits, the first one I spoke to the scouting coordinator a while, and then they brought him in. I don’t know if that has anyting to do with me or not, but there could be something there. I think I might have helped.

“I would say, of all the teams that have reached out ot me or Jakeem, Jakeem has been reached out to before me about 65-70 percent of the time. The player has been the first point of contact. That’s not what I expected, but that’s how it’s gone.

“I’m not sure what I expected. I expected interest. I expected teams to reach out. It just doesn’t become real until it really happens. You’re prepared, but you’re not, and then, it’s really happening. Luckily for me, working with ITL for the last three years, I got to meet a lot of agents who told me a lot of stories, so I kind of knew what to expect. It can be, man, I’m really talking to (a scout)! You can’t really expect it until it hits you in the face. I’ve had 3 special teams coaches call me, and they’ve told me to have my phone handy the week of the draft, and I assume most that have worked him out will want to be in touch, I don’t know if he’ll have any more workouts. I mean, I wasn’t expecting any Top 30 visits, but what’s to say there won’t be more?

A Look At NFL Coaches’ Alma Maters

11 Monday Apr 2016

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Recently, I did a breakdown of all the NFL coaches and assistant coaches (full positional coaches only — no ‘assistant safeties coaches’) and the schools they graduated from. It was interesting, and I thought I’d make a few observations based on the compiled list.

  • There’s an incredible amount of diversity, with 213 schools represented. That’s good news for people who aspire to be in the game, and something I’ve tried to hammer for a long time. No matter where you are, if your school has a football team, and you want to work in football, get your butt to the football office and volunteer. Immediately.
  • The top three schools are all football titans: Southern Cal leads with eight, while Penn State and Ohio State are tied for second with seven each.
  • Here’s something interesting. For ages, Miami (Ohio) has been known as the cradle of coaches for producing legendary names like Paul Brown, Woody Hayes, Bo Schembechler and Sid Gillman. Of course, football was very different then, and Miami (Ohio) could play on a more level playing field then. Mid-America Conference football is very different from what’s being played in the SEC, Pac-12 and ACC now, but the school is still producing coaches. It’s tied for No. 3 overall with Pittsburgh with six NFL coaches, and some of them are still quite young. They include Ravens head coach John Harbaugh as well as an offensive coordinator (Sean McVay, Redskins) and a former (interim) head coach, Aaron Kromer, who now coaches the offensive line for the Bills.
  • By the way, Miami (Ohio) has more coaches in the NFL (6 v. 5) than the ‘other’ Miami.
  • William & Mary is tied for sixth overall with five coaches in the NFL, while Indiana (Pa.), Montana and Springfield College are tied with four each. William & Mary, IUP and Montana are all FBS schools, but Springfield is Division III.  Again, you don’t have to go to a big school to make it to the NFL as a coach. Arizona State, BYU, Georgia, Michigan and Nebraska are all schools with just one coach in the NFL who graduated from their schools.
  • Other non-FBS schools in the top 38 are New Hampshire, North Dakota State and Southwestern Oklahoma, which each have three coaches in the league.

I hope these numbers show you that NFL coaches come from all around, and if pursuing a place in the league is your ambition, don’t let the school you attended stop you.

Defending Okung: An Interview with Jimmy Halsell (Pt. 2)

06 Wednesday Apr 2016

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On Tuesday, we posted an interview with former agent and ‘Skins cap guy J.I. ‘Jimmy’ Halsell regarding his work with new Broncos OT Russell Okung on his new contract. However, we had even more questions about the process of working with Okung and Jimmy’s thoughts on the reaction to the deal. We finish up our interview today.

 

How did you come to work with Okung on the contract? Did he approach you independently? Did the NFLPA play a role? Did you have a prior relationship with him?  “When I read last summer that he was going to do his second contract without an agent, but with the assistance of an expert, I knew that was right in my proverbial wheelhouse. I then put on my recruiter hat and leveraged my connections to get in touch with him prior to the 2015 season. That said, Russ and I never talked until the end of the season as he began to turn his attention to his impending second contract.  We quickly realized the mutual benefit and agreed to work together.”

 

What were the negatives you had going into free agency that you had to overcome?  “Russ’ January shoulder injury was the biggest obstacle going into free agency.  If Russ doesn’t incur that injury, then his free agent process is significantly different, even without the ability to talk to teams in advance of the start of free agency.”

Did Internet reaction to the contract surprise you?  “Not at all, since last summer when Russ announced his intentions, one could see the skepticism from agents and, in turn, from the media. That said, the overwhelming majority of players need an agent to advocate for them; Russ is unique given his personality, intelligence, and willingness to act on his vision.  The fact is that the media has misconstrued Russ’ contract at least in part (not in all instances) because there is a turf-protection agenda from some agents.  However, many athletes will not go Russ’ route not because of the misconstrued contract he signed but because they don’t have the same tools Russ possesses, and that’s OK, because that’s what agents are for.  So my overarching point is that, proverbially, everyone can eat.”

Do you plan on working with other players on their deals? Would you entertain such work if you were approached?  “In addition to Russ, I’ve worked on a couple of other deals this offseason as a consultant to the certified agent.  Regarding working directly with players, again, I don’t envision a lot of players having the confidence to pursue the path Russ did, but for those players who do have that confidence, then I’d absolutely be willing to be a consultant, just as I was to Russ.”

Make sure to follow Jimmy on Twitter here for his thoughts on the business of the game, with thoughts and analysis you won’t find anywhere else.

Defending Okung: An Interview with Jimmy Halsell (Pt. 1)

05 Tuesday Apr 2016

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Many argue that the NFLPA has conducted a rather extensive campaign to make contract advisors superfluous over the past couple years. One of the main elements of this campaign has been the free agency of OT Russell Okung. Okung made it clear going into free agency that he would do it without an agent, and he fearlessly entered into this ‘experiment’ with tools provided by the players association.

Obviously, this was met with consternation by veteran agents as well as newer ones who saw this as a transparent attempt by the union to rid itself of contract advisors and the fees they charge. So when Okung’s turned out to be far less than the flashy, big-bucks deal that some forecasted, critics came out in force.

With this in mind, we reached out to J.I. Halsell, who assisted Okung during the free agency process. J.I. is no rookie at this. Not only is he a former agent with one of the most prestigious firms in the business (Priority Sports, which has offices in Chicago, Los Angeles and Atlanta), and not only is J.I. formerly the Redskins’ cap specialist, but he’s probably the only guy on the Internet who’s dedicated to making the cap easier to digest and understand for the rank-and-file fan. He deals with cap questions on his Twitter account, and also runs a new site called NFLContractMetrics.com, which you’ll be hearing more about in this space in the near future.

We asked J.I. several questions related to the deal Okung signed, and we’ll have those tomorrow, but today, we wanted to focus solely on the deal. With that in mind, we asked this: What are the strengths of the deal? What are the strongest benefits for Okung?

His response is below.

 

Russ’ road to free agency was complicated by the shoulder injury he suffered in the Seahawks’ playoff loss to the Panthers, and it was a significant obstacle in hammering out a deal. That said, while we would have preferred a long-term deal, we expected that we were going to have to do a one-year deal, and then hit the market again next year.  The Broncos’ offer of a one-year deal with a base value of $5M (with the opportunity to earn up to $8M total) was the best offer we had from a total value perspective.

A lot has been made of the fact that this one-year deal has no money guaranteed at signing.  Other one-year offers made to Russ had money guaranteed, but not the same opportunity from a total value standpoint, so as we evaluated the Broncos’ offer, Russ and I were comfortable with his ability to earn the $1M workout bonus in Denver’s deal and accordingly viewed it as a “practical” guarantee.  So we viewed it as a one-year deal worth $5M with a practical guarantee of $1M on a club where there was mutual, strong interest.

With us feeling comfortable with the terms of the one-year portion of the deal, when Denver expressed interest in the “2-in-1” contract structure (a structure that had also been proposed by other suitors with significantly less money), if Russ were to take on that structure, then it was going to have to make sense financially. The deal proposed would be for one year with a club option for a multi-year deal thereafter. Russ viewed the option to add a four-year deal from 2017-2020 as a top-tier offensive tackle contract.

Denver’s offer was worth $12M per year, and would pay $20.5M fully guaranteed at the time the option was exercised, as well as $35.5M of the value in the first three years. When I viewed deals on the market at all positions whose ‘paper years’  (meaning without consideration of ‘old years’ already under contract) were four years in length, less than four paid more than $30M in the first three years, and only one paid more than $20.5M guaranteed. So again, with that perspective, Russ felt comfortable with the four-year deal part of this 2-in-1 structure, because even with the cap increasing and with a good 2016 season, Russ would be hard pressed to find a four-year deal that would pay to the same levels as the four-year deal contained in the Denver deal.

Whether or not Denver exercises the option remains to be seen, and will largely be dependent on Russ’ 2016 “prove it” performance.  If they choose to not exercise the option, then Russ got the best one-year deal he could, and will hit the market in 2017 as he originally thought he would under his injury circumstances.  If Denver exercises the option, then Russ gets a four-year deal that, relative to other pure four-year deals, is exceptional.

More from J.I. tomorrow.

When It’s Over: A Real Agent’s Experiences (Pt. 2)

01 Friday Apr 2016

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Today, Pro Football Management’s Howard Shatsky, who’s worked with such notable NFL players as Michael Strahan, Brian Westbrook and Mike McCrary, wraps up his thoughts on how to be forthright with a player when his career prospects are dim.

 

Telling a young man that it’s time to move on from his football dreams is a very difficult conversation to have.  I do not want to be the person who crushes a young man’s dream of playing in the NFL.  However, I also do not want to be the person who encourages a player to keep trying when there is virtually no chance of success.

One reason why is because, in most cases, the player does not work during this time.  Thus, when he finally realizes his NFL dream is over, he is 4-5 years behind his graduating class in terms of work experience.  So, what can that player put on a resume?  A prospective employer is not impressed by a resume with no work experience. An interview where the former player tells a potential employer that he has not worked for the last few years because he was training to play in the NFL does not usually go well.  Thus, by avoiding this talk, I feel the agent is doing his client a disservice.

I recently had to have this difficult conversation with one of my players.  I told him I had done everything I could to try and get him an NFL opportunity, but after almost two years of trying, I felt an obligation to be honest with him and tell him I did not think I would be able to get him that NFL opportunity that he so desperately wants.  This conversation was particularly difficult because I feel the player does have the ability to play in the NFL.

I told him that if he felt another agent could get him a chance, I would terminate the Standard Representation Agreement (SRA) between us and that he would be free to sign with another agent.  I also told him that if he did want to keep trying, I would stick by him and continue to do my best.  I suggested he try playing in the CFL, getting some great game film and then trying to come back and play in the NFL.  It does happen: Dolphins DE Cameron Wake is a prime example of this, and became one of the NFL’s best defensive lineman after a short stay north of the border.  But again, Wake is the exception.

The conversation took place while I was having lunch with my wife.  After we hung up, I turned to her and said, ‘you realize I feel like I just ruined that kid’s life and crushed his dream.’  However, is that really what I did? Or did I help my client by encouraging him to write his resume and get a job?

I recall Bill Parcells telling a client of mine that if the day ever came when he was tired of getting hit in the head on a daily basis, that there was no shame in moving on.  I believe Bill was correct.  In this case, the player is an extremely intelligent person, and as I told him, I felt he could be successful with or without the NFL, and that the NFL was not the end all and be all.  As an intelligent young man, I told him I felt he could be very successful in the business world, and that if he did take my advice, I would do whatever I could to help him get his first job outside of football.  As of now, I do not know what the player’s decision will be.

What I do know is that by being honest with my client, I had fulfilled the promise I make to every player or coach I represent: that I will never lie to them and always look out for their best interests.  The final decision is always the players.  Will he decide to take my advice and ‘hang up his cleats?’  That remains to be seen.  However, I can sleep well at night knowing that although it was extremely difficult, I did what I had promised: I gave him the best advice I could.

When It’s Over: A Real Agent’s Experiences

31 Thursday Mar 2016

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I asked longtime NFLPA contract advisor Howard Shatsky of Professional Football Management to provide me with his thoughts on how, and when, to tell a player it’s time to ‘pursue his life’s work,’ as legendary Steelers coach Chuck Noll used to tell players he’d cut.

Howard made some excellent points. His thoughts are below:

What’s the best way to handle a player who is projected as a late-round pick or an undrafted free agent?  When is too long when it comes to pursuing NFL dreams?

Obviously, many of these players are released before even making an NFL roster, or after a season on the practice squad, or at best a year or two on the 53-man roster.  So what’s an agent’s obligation regarding a young man’s non-football future? During my 27 years as an agent, I have had to have this conversation with many players.

Some agents choose the easy way out.  They just stop taking the player’s phone calls until they are fired and no longer have to deal with that client.  Others will tell the player to keep working hard, that an opportunity is coming. The reality is that if one of these “bottom of the roster” players is released and is not picked up for an entire year, he has very little chance of getting back in the league.

This is not to say it does not happen.  I recently represented a player from a small school who went undrafted and sat out the entire year.  However while sitting out, he had a job and would work out before and after going to work.  Most players do not work during this time, even though it is physically impossible to train for eight hours a day.  When asked what they are up to, they often say they are “training to get back in the NFL.”  To me, that is a synonym for unemployed.  There is no reason a player cannot work while attempting to get back in the league.

Ultimately my client’s hard work paid off.  He performed so well at the Regional Combine that 14 NFL teams expressed interest in him.  He ultimately signed with a team and was released, then picked up by another NFL club and spent the entire season on their practice roster.  The next season he finally made the 53-man roster and will now enter 2016 with one season toward his pension and free agency.  But looking at things realistically, if he makes the 53 for the next few seasons, by the time he is an unrestricted free agent — which is when the majority of NFL players “cash in” — he will be 29, so he is playing in hopes of getting that one big contract.

But again, this is the exception, not the rule.  Most players who sit out an entire NFL season have very little chance of making it back to the NFL.  This is not always because they do not have the ability to play at the NFL level. It’s just that the reality of the business is that most NFL teams would rather take a chance on a player coming out of college than one who has been “on the street” for a year.  That is extremely frustrating to both the agent and his client.  Some players who have been in training camps feel they have the ability to play in the NFL and in some cases they are correct.  Many times I have had a client tell me, “just get me an opportunity and I know I will get it done.”  The problem is that often, even though an agent may spend hours calling NFL teams and even trying to call in favors, he is unable to get another opportunity for the player.  It is at that point I feel an agent has an obligation to speak with his player and tell him it is time to move on.

More from Howard on Friday, including a recent experience with a client in just this situation.

The Road Ends

29 Tuesday Mar 2016

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Today, Howard Shatsky, a longtime agent who’s pretty active on Twitter (and worth a follow) tweeted this. It reminded me of a conversation I had with a scout last week at Rice’s pro day.

We’ve always had a friendly relationship, so we talk when we bump into each other on the road. He was lamenting the emails he gets from agents this time of year, pitching him on obscure players that are long shots at best. He contrasted that with a recent experience with one of the biggest agents in the game, who’s representing a top pick this spring. It was a great illustration of the dilemma hundreds of agents are going to have over the next 30-60 days.

The hard part about this business is that there are so many players that get signed by, at times, desperate agents who just want to get someone on SRA. The agents, in turn, spend weeks promoting these players to scouts. Slowly, they come to the realization that their clients are not getting traction. Usually, that’s around the end of March, i.e., now. After all, teams should be expressing interest in the player, not vice versa. Anyway, at this point, these agents have one of two reactions.

One is that they hope against hope that, somehow, their clients are super-sleepers despite the lack of attention. This is mostly denial. The other is that they realize that the time and money they’ve spent on their clients will not be rewarded, barring a miracle. When they come to this realization, deep down, they know they need to have the conversation that Howard is referring to.

The question is, how do you do this? How do you crush a kid’s dreams? How do you cut your losses when you’ve poured so many resources into a player?

There’s another element that makes it harder. Every year, it seems, there’s another form of minor-league football that comes along and tries to make a go of it. All of them ultimately fail, but for as long as they hang around, they give players the idea that there’s a post-college level that can vault them into the NFL. In very rare cases, this does happen, but in the vast majority of cases, there’s no ‘AAAA’ level of football.

If you leave college and aren’t on a roster in May, the NFL pretty much turns the page. There are exceptions, like in everything else in life, but not many. So if you’re and agent and you’re honest with yourself, and you’re honest with your client, you have to have that conversation.

More on this topic later this week.

 

WSW: My Brush With Trump (Sort Of)

23 Wednesday Mar 2016

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Since it’s primary season and so many people are obsessed with Donald Trump, I thought I’d trot out the one time my career crossed paths with him. Kind of, anyway.

In the fall of ’07, I was running the Hula Bowl, which at the time was still the No. 3 all-star game. Part of my job was trying to start a buzz around Honolulu, hoping to generate ticket sales and sponsorships, so I decided to reach out to the Rotary Club. My hope was that associating with some of the movers and shakers of the city’s business leaders would create a few synergies. I will never forget addressing that group, about 200 strong, in the ballroom of a downtown hotel. As I looked out at the audience, they sat with their backs to a series of bay windows looking out on white sandy beaches, and as I spoke, gentle breezes blew across the waters. What a cool view that was.

Anyway, one of the people I met that day was a man named Jesse James. His was a name that was easy to remember. He was a good guy, very engaging and friendly, and he offered to help me build a few relationships that might help get me connected locally. I was happy to take him up on that. As I recall, he introduced me to several people at local restaurants that helped out with meals for the players, as well as several other people.

That fall, I’d come to the island for a week at a time to conduct business and gin up excitement about the game before returning home, so one day he invited me over to his apartment for a drink. I couldn’t say no; he had been terribly friendly and helpful. At the time, I knew he had a sales-related job, but didn’t know exactly what he did.

Shortly after I arrived at his high-rise apartment downtown, that became crystal clear. I remember he welcomed me in and showed me to a table in his kitchen, providing me with a beverage. He then pulled a large signboard from behind his furniture. On it, Jesse had diagrammed an extensive plan for a hotel and entertainment complex in American Samoa. He was charged with finding investors for the project, and he hoped my boss, the Hula Bowl’s owner and a purported multimillionaire, might be interested. The centerpiece of Jesse’s pitch was that Donald Trump would be involved.

I knew my boss would not be interested, but I played along. “When is Trump coming down?” I asked.

Jesse made it clear that Trump’s involvement would be very superficial. In fact, Trump would not be integral to the project. Basically, Trump had sold his brand to the people that surrounded the project, and they hoped that his clout would help them find investors. He had already made his money on the project, and though it looked like he was an investor himself, he wasn’t anything of the sort. He had cashed a check, and now, if they found investors, his name would be on the buildings, at which point he would case more checks. He had no skin in the game. He couldn’t lose.

If there’s anything I take from that moment, it’s that Trump has become a master of being all things to all people without having to make any real sacrifices. It’s interesting that his sales pitch during primary season has been successful in creating buzz for his brand, while he hasn’t had to come out of pocket for advertising. I guess that’s one positive thing you can say about him, if nothing else.