WSW: When, Why and Where Do Teams Gamble in the Draft?

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Some years ago, I had a conversation with former 49ers scout Oscar Lofton that we filmed for ITL. It was pretty wide-ranging, and I had the time of my life as we discussed a number of topics related to scouting. Here’s an interesting story about Deion Sanders that Oscar shared that day.

One thing we talked about was a team’s philosophy toward the last rounds of the draft. My contention was that teams see them as throwaway picks, and I know the 49ers did specifically because, in 1996, they drafted identical twins Sean and Sam Manuel out of tiny New Mexico State as a sort of lighthearted public relations move.

Here are some excerpts from our conversation with my analysis and conclusions after each passage.

Lofton: “From late-fifth round all the way through the seventh, sometimes you have — because of a trade . . . or because of some kind of deal that’s happened, or some compensatory trades that have been made, or people that left your club — you get some of those picks, and you try to kind of stack up with some sixth-, seventh-round people.”

Analysis: I think this is interesting because even though Oscar left the Niners in the early ’00s, he’s admitting that even then, the team looked at any picks after the late fifth round as strictly a gamble, and therefore they rolled the dice on players that were boom-or-bust types. My observation is that teams are doubling down on this now, taking guys that fit all the metrics but that might not have the Football IQ they need. I think a great example of this is the Saints, a team that hit big on some boom-or-bust types (TE Jimmy Graham) as well as late-rounders (WO Marques Colston) and undrafted free agents (DE Junior Galette), then got lulled into a pattern of gambling earlier in the draft, which came home to roost in 2014 with several picks (second-rounder Stanley Jean-Baptiste and fourth-rounder Khairi Fortt) that, one year later, are no longer on the team.

Lofton: “Generally like from the fifth round on, sometimes . . . you take some phenom, you know, some guy that can jump out of the gym and everything, but he’s a football player, not just somebody that can run fast, but can catch, or can cover, or whatever you need him to do, but some kind of athlete sticks out at that level. What does he bring that makes us a better team? Well, he brings speed as a receiver, or he brings deep coverage ability as a defensive back, or he brings the ability to pass rush off of stunts, you know, as a secondary member or something, or a great special teams presence, or . . . the ability to return a punt, or to run after catch.”

Analysis: Maybe this is the key. Though scouts I talk to agree that good teams take the best athlete available early in the draft, maybe the best strategy late in the draft is to draft for need. Take an athletic ex-basketball player if you have a need at tight end or defensive end, or an ex-wrestler if you need a good interior lineman, or a track guy if your secondary is too slow.

Lofton: “You say, ‘those aren’t that important to the team,’ but you look at how many of the seventh-round people and the free agent people that have made (the Niners), and made us better, and they become crucial to you. Usually the ones that flop big are the first rounds, the . . . early picks, you know? Because you put so much into them, and then because you’ve got so much into them, you have to hang with them for so long. So while you’re hanging with them you’ve got to have somebody playing. So some of those seventh-round picks and free agents are doing the playing, and they’re getting all the money until you can figure out a way to unload (the struggling first-rounders), or until they develop.”

Analysis: Oscar’s take here is what makes me scratch my head. It seems counter-intuitive to gamble with the last three picks of the draft when there are so many players out there that excel despite being late picks or not drafted at all. More and more, teams are taking players who come from the lower levels of college football, or who played other sports primarily or otherwise excelled in workouts despite meager on-field credentials. There’s a fine line between taking a player with upside and taking a player who’s got as much chance of winning the lottery as he does of making the team.

Three Things to Watch For in ‘The Agent’s’ Finale

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I hope you’ve been enjoying the eight episodes so far of ‘The Agent,’ the first show to truly take viewers behind the scenes of the world of player representation. Tonight’s show (10E/9C on the Esquire Network) wraps the series. Here are three things I found interesting about the show.

  • I guess the idea of a draft party is just something too tempting to resist to families of players that are draft-eligible. I understand; potentially being selected in the draft represents the culmination of a lifelong dream not just for the young men involved, but for their extended families as well. But what happens if you’re not one of the 250-odd players drafted? Or, as happens frequently in tonight’s episode, you’re drafted much lower than you expected to? It’s agony seeing your dreams die (or dim), but when it’s on camera, or when you’re accompanied by everyone you know, it’s infinitely worse. Tonight, you get to see families experience the crushing despair of lost hope when young men go undrafted. There’s somewhat of a happy ending when teams all post-draft, recruiting them for UDFA deals, but it’s a pretty hollow victory. But to all players hoping to be drafted next spring: if you weren’t invited to watch the draft in Chicago by the NFL itself, consider planning a very subdued draft-day get-together.
  • When I watch movies based on true stories, I like it when, right before the credits roll, they show what happened next to the main characters, how their lives played out. To the credit of the show’s producers, this takes place for all the players signed by the four agents profiled in the show. I’ll warn you — it’s not all happy endings. This is inevitable, but the striking thing to me is how much recruiting, hand-holding, flattery, protecting, and, yes, coddling, goes into signing a player who winds up as an undrafted free agent or late-rounder. The price of signing a player who’s even on an NFL radar screen is to treat him as if he’s a certain Hall of Fame talent. That’s sad but true. Every year I get a few new agents who claim they’re going to get tough with their players and provide no kid-gloves treatment. It’s very hard to do that when these players have been given special treatment all their lives.
  • On a related note, Peter Schaffer of Authentic Athletix spent a big part of this series pumping up Washington State QB Connor Halliday, encouraging him and patiently walking through the process with a young man whose draft chances were limited. Tonight, Peter is repaid for all his good will and financial investments by being hung up on when Halliday goes undrafted. Most players not only have a limited memory of the good things agents do for them, but are quick to blame an agent when things go poorly. This is another reality of the game.

I hope you’ll check out our live-tweet tonight. Lots of good insights as we wrap a fun nine weeks. See you tonight.

A Key Marker for NFL Success

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Last year I did a report on how the league was made up, based on opening-week rosters. I analyzed a lot of things about the league, but today, I want to focus on the teams that drafted the most players into the league because I think it’s a good baseline indicator of which teams do the best job of drafting.

As you may recall, last year’s report indicated that the teams that had drafted the most players into the league were the 49ers (59), Packers (54), Steelers (53), Ravens (51) and Texans, Patriots and Seahawks, all tied with 49. Last year, six of the seven had winning records, five of the seven made the playoffs, and two of the seven played in the Super Bowl.

This year, the Pack leads with 56, followed by the Niners (55), Steelers (52), Texans (51) and Bengals (50).

Last year’s bottom five were the Saints and Redskins, tied for last with 32 each, followed by the Bears with 33 draftees, the Bills with 34 and the Browns and Colts with 37 each. This year, the Giants are all alone at the bottom with 30; Tampa Bay next to last (31), Washington (32), and the Colts and the Bears with 36 each.

What does it all mean? Here’s how I see it.

  • The Packers are highly regarded for their draft acumen and that’s proven by the numbers. It’s one reason the Packers always challenge for the title, and also perhaps the reason other highly successful teams (like the Chiefs and Seahawks) are there because they brought their GMs in from Green Bay.
  • It seems clear that a good QB can mask a lot of deficiencies. It struck me as odd going into last season that two of the worst-drafting teams, the Colts and Saints, were seen as Super Bowl contenders. We know now that the Saints were nowhere near worthy of that hype, and a year later, the Colts are seeing a similar dip. After a mighty fall to the bottom of the ‘total players drafted’ standings this year, it could be curtains for the Giants if something were to happen to Eli.
  • Conversely, a bad quarterback can kill a team’s chances despite a generally high talent level. The Niners and Texans were both top-five teams last year when it comes to identifying talent, but you could argue that those two teams have gotten the worst QB play in the league so far this season.
  • Last year, of the six teams at the bottom, three either changed GMs (Redskins and Bears), cleaned house in the scouting department (Saints), or had second-year GMs (Bills and Browns). That leaves just one outlier.
  • I’m looking at you, Ryan Grigson.  As recently as 2012, Grigson was Executive of the Year, but now, the case is being made by the Colts faithful that it’s time for him to move on. Grigson has made a series of questionable trades and seems to lean on the AFL, the CFL and even the NFL Veterans Combine and the Super Regional to sign players ‘off the street’ when the team should maybe look harder at the draft. It’s coming home to roost.

WSW: The Value of Risk

In this space, I often wonder if I’m leading readers astray as I encourage people to ‘go for it’ in the football business. What if I’m leading people down a path that winds up in a bad place? What if they take a risk and it works out in a really negative way?

As I was searching for today’s War Story, I came across this from Phil Emery, the former Bears GM who spoke at our seminar last January. Phil is adamant that if you’re going to succeed in football, or even in life, you have to take a few leaps.

“Take risks, and don’t be afraid of them, OK? I’m sure there’s very few people in here that have talked to the one-percenters that are all the political debate about, the top one percent of wealthy people in the United States. OK? I’m not one of those. I didn’t come from there, if you are, you’re very fortunate, OK? You probably took risks to get there. Take risk.  I’ve always kind of looked at it, and I reminded myself when I got the job in Chicago is, you’ve never really had anything, so swing harder. Don’t choke up on the bat, OK? Don’t choke up on the bat. Swing hard. I swung hard, OK? It didn’t work out, but I’m proud of one thing: we weren’t afraid to swing. Nobody left me at the plate looking at the ball, OK? We spent every dime we could spend, and we tried to make the best decisions that we can, or we could. So that’s my advice. Remember, anything is possible. Do it for the benefit of others, and don’t be afraid to take risks. The more risk you take, the more change will happen in your life, and ultimately, change makes you stronger.

“I counted up, I’m going to be moving on my 20th move post-college. I’ve made 20 different moves. I’ve had 11 different jobs, and my wife’s been with me for 18 of those moves, so she’s gold, OK? We’ve been together for 34 years, and every one of those changes benefits you down the road. The things that I did as equipment manager benefited me as a GM. Why? Because I could walk down to that basement and knew exactly what that person was doing, and those organizational tasks help.”

If you’re more of a visual person, check out 7:56-9:38 in this video and you can hear it from Phil himself.

Three Things to Watch For in ‘The Agent’

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Episode 8 of ‘The Agent’ is tonight (10E/9C). The show covers the first three rounds of this year’s draft, and have plenty of intrigue and behind-the-scenes pageantry and byplay.

Here are three things I thought worth noting.

  • The players spotlighted tonight all have major family parties complete with guests, food, and people crowded around a TV set. This is very common, very tempting, and in my mind, a big mistake. The draft is an incredibly vexing and unpredictable event. You’ll notice that the agents don’t attend any of these events, and there’s an obvious reason why: they don’t want to be the focus of everyone’s ire if (when?) things go wrong. If you’re like me, you’re going to be especially sympathetic with Kentucky DT Za’Darius Smith, who winds up getting pursued by an irritable broadcaster that absolutely insists his selection is imminent . . . until the picks pass by and it’s not. Smith is a really patient and engaging young man before he finally hides from the guy.
  • One note on the sports media: when I worked in newspapers, we would occasionally get phone calls from people that wanted to settle a bet. I remember, in ’95 or ’96, I was working at a paper in Lubbock and some guy called, asking us who the best QB of all time was (my vote went to Marino; everyone else said Montana). The point is, there’s some perception that sports writers/reporters/etc. know more than the rank-and-file fan. These days, I’m not sure that’s true. They may have a few more connections, and may have some insights they don’t share with readers, but for the most part, the wide variety of information sources and deeper analysis means fans don’t have to take a backseat to media these days. The guy who keeps bugging Smith is pretty much Exhibit A.
  • One more note on the media: often during the run-up to the draft, you’ll hear that a certain player interviewed with 7-8 teams at the combine. This is always spun as the teams that have the most interest in the player. That’s not true. It’s often the teams that have the least interest in the player, because they didn’t even get basic interviews done during the draft process; they’re just covering their bases, nothing more. This manifests itself tonight when the agents list the teams they expect to draft their clients. In most cases, they’re dead wrong. Teams have become quite adept at hiding their true intents, and often, the teams an agent lists as having the most interest are actually the teams where the agent has the most contacts. He’s talked up his clients with his buddies on those teams, and therefore, he feels his client has an excellent chance with them. But really, it means nothing. Watch for this tonight.

Make sure to join me for more insights tonight on the ITL live-tweet.

Second Chance

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Last Wednesday, I was having lunch with a client and his partner who are in wealth management for several athletes across all the major sports. I’d met my friend’s partner before, but this was the first time we really had to talk, and I found out he had roots in Cleveland.

I told him the only time I’d been to old Municipal Stadium, a place where the Browns really had a home-field advantage, was sometime in the 90s, when Bill Belichick was the head coach. I remember that game because it was a dreary day in Cleveland between two really bad teams, the Browns and the Saints, neither of whom seemed to have any clue about how to run an offense. “It’s Bill Beli-choke against Jim Moron,” I remember my friend, Ryan, saying of the Belichick-Mora head coaching match-up that day.

I mentioned, while looking over the menu, that people forget that Belichick wasn’t nearly the ‘genius’ he’s considered to be today back then, when he was coaching the woeful Browns. “Here we go,” said my friend with a wry smile, knowing I’d struck a chord with his partner.

It became somewhat of a ‘soapbox’ moment. He discussed his belief that Belichick was one of the main reasons Cleveland lost the Browns, then had to reassemble the team as an expansion franchise. “The team wasn’t good enough to have a guy like Belichick, who didn’t get along with the media, as the face of the franchise,” he said.

I had to admit he was right, though I’d never thought about it that way. The strain between the team and the fans only worsened when owner Art Modell made it clear he wanted a new stadium, and soon it became inevitable that the team would leave.

If Belichick hadn’t gotten a second chance in the game, history would remember him as the guy who lost a lot and showed up to his press conferences wearing a rumpled hoodie and a frown. But he did get a second chance, applied the lessons about defense he’d learned at the knee of Bill Parcells, made the right decision about his quarterback, and the rest is a different kind of history. The key is that Belichick learned from that experience, sticking to his guns on the things he knew still worked, but improving.

This lesson is especially poignant to me this week after so many would-be NFL contract advisors found out about a week ago that they’d failed the agent exam. This year, the NFLPA chose to change up their exam quite a bit, and also made some other choices that lead to my view — admittedly based on anecdotal evidence — that this year’s agent class will be down significantly from the usual 150-200 that pass the test. We won’t know for sure until the new class is posted on the NFLPA website in late October or November.

Maybe you’ve suffered some other setbacks as you’ve attempted to build a place in the football world for yourself. The key, I feel, is to not think of yourself as a bum, or washed-up, or whatever, if you fail, especially if it’s a very public, very embarrassing failure. History will only remember your success, so keep on fighting. You may one day be considered a ‘genius,’ like Norman Einstein.

 

WDW: Sliding Scale

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If you watched last night’s episode of ‘The Agent,’ you saw me have an uncomfortable conversation with Ed Wasielewski of Philadelphia-based EMG Sports (well, actually, two difficult conversations).

As Ed and I discussed his client, Houston DT Joey Mbu, he casually asked me where I saw him going. I gritted my teeth and told him sixth or seventh round. He countered that he expected him to go in the fourth. As the workout went on, Ed spoke to a Texans scout who had Mbu as an undrafted free agent. This meant Ed had to do the difficult chore of letting Mbu and his mother know there was a good chance no team would pick him on draft day. Which happened.

It made me wonder, what made Ed think Mbu was going fourth round? I had spoken to five scouts and all five had him as a bubble draftee and most likely a priority free agent. That’s not the kind of return Ed was seeking. Today, I had this text conversation with an agent who had kicked the tires on Mbu last year.

Agent: The trick is to know it before you sign the player. I knew Joey would sink, that is why I backed off.

Me: The question I have is, why did Ed think he was going fourth round? Who thought that?

Agent: Multiple scouts did. A lot of people I talked to said they liked the size and arm length. Sr. Bowl invite. And the school was selling him hard to NFL teams. I went against what I was hearing after multiple games and not seeing what I needed to out of the athlete. Some good scouts that I trust liked him early and off junior film.

Me: That really puzzles me. When I called around (scouts) crapped all over him. I guess it shows how quickly a star can fall.

Agent: What time of year was it you had talks?

Me: mid-Feb

Agent: Got you. My talks were in the summer and July and August. Also as you know people see guys very differently.

Me; Yup.

Ed didn’t make a mistake based on terrible information or lack of scouting contacts. It just goes to show that scouts are fallible, too, and often a prospect in December is a non-factor on draft day. It’s just one more reason this is such a volatile business with no guarantees.

Three Things To Watch For in ‘The Agent’

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Tonight is Episode 7 of ‘The Agent’ on the Esquire Network at 10E/9C. Here are a few things of note in tonight’s show.

  • I think there’s a perception that all players aspiring to the NFL are guaranteed an equal and fair shot at performing their best. I think this is especially true among today’s players, who often see expensive combine training programs as almost a right. Not true. Not true at all. In fact, in tonight’s episode, we see pro day workouts on the campuses of Washington State, Cincinnati, Grambling, Houston and Massachusetts. Only two of these schools have indoor practice facilities, and one school’s workout area is practically underwater, prompting an agent to claim it’s “unfair,” and maybe it is. Well, scouts don’t care about fairness. They’re trying to get confirmed numbers on literally thousands of players in a short time frame, and if one school doesn’t have optimal conditions, well, it’s on to the next one. That may not be fair, but it’s reality. A lot of players lose this perspective along the way.
  • Here’s another thing many aspiring agents don’t understand: your client is your boss. Even if you’re in your 50s, have decades in the game, and he’s 21 or 22 years old. This means that even if you pour $10K-$20K into preparing your client for his pro day, if he’s not feeling it that day, and chooses to skip a portion of the workout — that’s it. You can jump and stomp your feet all you want, and hope that he understands that a window is closing that might not open again, but that’s all you can do. As players begin to see their teammates go through the draft process, they start to trust themselves more and their agents less. This is a tough pill for many agents to swallow, and understandably so. You will see a bitter example of this tonight.
  • At some point, all agents ask scouts, team executives, and analysts like myself where they see their clients going in the draft. Very often, this is hard news to deliver. Scouts are people, too, and they don’t want to rain on an agent’s parade. Often, a scout will muddy the waters by being vague or just telling an outright ‘white lie.’ In tonight’s episode, I personally have such an experience when I’m interfacing with a longtime agent client who’s also been a friend and supporter for a long time. Fans and people outside the game like to think that the game is made up of cold logic and detached analysis, but you can’t take the human element out of the game. Sometimes that’s good, but other times it’s very hard.

Just four episodes left of the first docu-series to truly show what the agent business is like. Make sure to check out our live-tweet, as well. See you tonight.

Why Do Rookies Bust?

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It’s a simple question: what makes a can’t-miss player fail?

I asked five scouts the same question, and I got a variety of responses. I expected them all to be a variation of ‘you can’t measure heart, and you have to really want it, and some players don’t,’ but it turned out to be much more than that.

Here are few responses that I got back in texts:

  • “GM and Coach-driven draft pick:” I think this response was intended to illustrate that sometimes GMs want a player, but a coach doesn’t, and either the player proves to be a bad fit for the team, or the coach doesn’t give the player a sufficient chance to succeed. I’ll buy that. It’s one reason.
  • “Reaching for a player because of need. You pass on a great player because you think you are good at that position, (and take) a player not worthy of that slot. You are one injury away from not having a great player at that position:” I think this makes sense, too. Florida State’s E.J. Manuel comes to mind. Despite a great series of pre-draft workouts, most scouts I know saw him in the third or fourth round. The Bills, however, badly needed a passer, and three years later, he’s barely hanging onto a roster spot. “It’s not the player’s fault he was overdrafted,” my friend added.
  • “There’s not a single reason. Each player — hits and misses — is unique:” I expected to get this answer from several sources, but most scouts were more specific.
  • “The No. 1 thing is they can’t play at the mental speed of the pro game. The complexity of the pro game . . . they’re not able to handle the mental pressure that is applied by having to play so much faster. It’s so much more complicated. You have to watch tape. If guys are slow reactors on the field .. . if QBs hold the ball too long, and don’t see progressions, and don’t let the ball go, they’re never gonna do it in pro ball. If a lineman can’t see the blitz, and doesn’t pass off well on stunts, there’s no way he’ll do it in pro football. You get all these wonderful measurables added up, and a coach will say, “we can fix it.” Most of the time you can’t. It’s between the ears. It’s so much mental. If you can’t play strong and sharp and fast, you start to lose confidence, and then you can’t function:” I would agree with this, but it’s a little hard to measure. How do you predict who will be able to process the speed of the game, and who won’t? It’s not the kind of thing the Wonderlic can measure.

I think draft success is a function of talent and ability, mixed with system and ability for a team to adapt to a player’s talents (and vice versa), and finally, where a player is drafted. First-rounders get paid reasonably well, and for a lot of players, a switch flips and the hunger isn’t the same as it is for a fourth-rounder who thought he was going at the top of the second round.

There are probably many more theories on why players don’t make it. I hope to revisit this topic again in the near future.

WSW: Up On The Table

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The first time I ever heard the term “getting up on the table” in the draft room was one of my first years at the Senior Bowl. It was at a practice, and someone was congratulating Seahawks scout Derrick Jensen for a pick the team had made in the later rounds.

It was a defensive lineman, as I recall, though the exact player I can’t remember. “Yeah, I really had to get up on the table for him,” Jensen said.

Since then, I’ve heard the term dozens of times, but rarely have I heard exact stories of a scout aggressively lobbying for a player.

I dug this one up from former Bears GM Phil Emery. He told it at the 2015 ITL Seminar, the annual event we hold at the combine for our clients, after meeting former Dolphins wide receiver Chris Chambers at our event. Chris was there representing his combine prep facility, The Chamber, which is based in South Florida. If you’d rather listen to Phil tell it himself, click here. It starts at the 3:00 mark and runs until 4:37.

“It was 2001, OK? I was the positional cross-check guy for wide-outs for the Chicago Bears. It was my first go-round with the Bears during that time, and I’ll tell you a little story.

“(Chambers) will always be in my memory bank because I was pushing for (him) hard, right? I love those big hands, and that catch radius, and all that end zone work. (He) had a catch where (he) went up over the top in a corner of an end zone and grabbed a one-hander, and it was so beautiful. It was such a moment of grace and athleticism, and just beautiful to see. The reason I’m in (football), OK, is because I see this as art. This brings joy to my heart to watch somebody do something that no other human being can do. It’s special. It’s special, and that catch was special.

“So we’re having a little debate about (Chambers), OK? And so as the positional cross-check scout, I had wide-outs, so I stack all the wide-outs in the country from one down, OK? Well we were responsible at that time — this was way before digital, OK? This is VHS and 16 MM tape. We were responsible for making the profile (tape) and cut. So what I did is, I stuck it on that catch, and repeated (his) catch 10 consecutive times so that everybody got the feel about how I felt about (him), so Mark Hatley, our Vice President of Player Personnel at that time said, ‘hey, Phil, that’s enough.”

I think it’s an even more interesting story when you realize Phil was right about Chambers. The Bears took Michigan’s David Terrell that year with the eighth pick in the draft, and Terrell was an unmitigated bust. In addition to Terrell, wide receivers taken in the first round that year included Koren Robinson (the ninth pick, to Seattle), Rod Gardner (15, Redskins), Santana Moss (16, Jets), Freddie Mitchell (25, Eagles) and Reggie Wayne (30, Colts).

Taking it one step further, receivers taken in the second round before Chambers were Quincy Morgan (33, Browns), Chad Johnson (36, Bengals) and Robert Ferguson (41, Packers). I think you could argue persuasively that only two receivers in this group, Wayne and Johnson, had better careers than Chambers. I guess Phil was right.