Author Archives: itlneil

Blake’s Summer Sleepers for 2026: Reviewing A Couple Interesting Prospects

27 Friday Jun 2025

Posted by in NFL draft, Scouts

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On Wednesday, former NFL scouting executive Blake Beddingfield presented his Summer Sleepers list and joined dozens of agents on Zoom to discuss them. It’s our second year of presenting his list during the summer, but our sixth year of him doing this (we used to save it for in-season). Here’s a look at a past list.

Anyway, the value in Blake’s list (as well as the timing of it) is in the players he spotlights. All of them enter the season as Day 3/UDFA types, and maybe they never rise above that, but even if they don’t, it’s valuable to know about them. As we’ve recounted on ITL this week, a growing number of players with Day 1 grades already have strong relationships with top firms, and the battle is for the players who aren’t on preseason mock drafts.

Anyway, here are two of the 55 players Blake discussed Wednesday that I found especially interesting.

Barion Brown, WO, LSU: Brown could be the fastest player in the draft, and he will play a role in Year 1 as he’ll be used to stretch defenses and create mismatches. He’ll also be a starting returner immediately. However, he has inconsistent hands and he struggles with the ability to catch a ball with tight zip and velocity. He will “double-catch” it at times, and other times, he just drops the ball. There’s already been a lot of hype this spring about Brown, who transferred in from Kentucky this offseason, but there are red flags due to his hands.

Elijah Pritchett, OT, Nebraska: Pritchett has a first-round body but free agent film. There’s already video of him doing impressive feats of strength during his short time in Lincoln, but it’s not the tools that are in question. Blake got really passionate describing Pritchett’s unrealized potential on Wednesday; you don’t often find the combination of strength, feet and burst that the big ‘Husker shows. He’s already got 12 starts at tackle (mostly right, but one at left) from his time at Alabama, and the potential is tantalizing, but at this point it’s just potential. Still, if the light comes on, he could be elite. The question is, will it?

The point is, unless you’re with one of the top 50 NFL agencies (and maybe, even if you are), you need to know about the players Blake described Wednesday. It’s still early, and if you get in with one of these young men early, it may be the difference when it’s decision time in December or January. For $45 plus tax, you get Blake’s list with his notes and projections on all 55 players, but you also get the video, during which he really gets passionate about who these players are, their NFL comps, and the details you can’t find anywhere else.

2025 NFL Agent Exam: Your One-Month-Out Game Plan

20 Friday Jun 2025

Posted by in Agent Exam, Agents, Getting started

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It seems hard to believe, but on Saturday, we will be exactly a month away from the 2025 NFL Agent Exam, scheduled for Monday, July 21. I think the one-month mark represents the very last chance anyone has to start studying and still have a chance to pass, and even then, there are no guarantees.

If you’re someone who has only been casually studying for the past few weeks and who’s ready to get serious, here’s what I would recommend, based on what we offer for exam prep.

  • Buy our study guide. That’s gotta be Job 1. “The study guide has been really helpful,” said one satisfied customer this month. “I feel pretty good so far,” said another. “Have been using the study guide daily.” It’s $350 plus tax ($378.88 all in) and we can have it in your inbox within an hour of purchase. It’s the Cliff Notes for the CBA. Spend two weeks and learn everything in the guide inside-out. Take time off from work if you have to. Simply sifting through it over a weekend isn’t going to be enough.
  • Try one of our instructional videos. We’ve been having monthly Zoom sessions with our house CBA expert, Chicago-based agent Ian Greengross, since February. They are $50 plus tax each, and they’re especially valuable if you’re more of a visual learner. We’ve got five of them recorded and “in the can,” with another one set for July 8. I recommend you start with our February video. You can buy it here. If you like Ian’s teaching style and find it helpful to see problems worked out step-by-step, you can purchase the others.
  • Buy Practice Exam 1. It’s a 50-question, multiple-choice exam that will help you familiarize yourself with the style of questions, and that’s important. Register for it here. Take it several times (it won’t cost you extra). I’d plan on taking it the weekend of July 5-6. You can shoot fireworks and spend the weekend on a boat some other year.
  • Set aside July 8 and 10. On the 8th (a Tuesday), we’ll have our final monthly Zoom session covering, mainly, drug policy (including forfeitable breach; you’re going to want to see someone work those problems once or twice, I assure you). Cost will be $50 plus tax. Then, on Thursday, we’ll have our “pressure test” session in which we’ll give you 20 fresh, new questions, and one hour after we publish them, Ian will join everyone on Zoom to work them. If you’ve gotten them all correct (they’ll be mostly math problems), you can feel really good about your chances of passing. Cost will be $70. We’ll start registering for both sessions next month.
  • Consider getting Practice Exam 2. You can register for it here (it’s on a separate database from Exam 1). It’s half the cost of Exam 1, which is why you have to buy them in sequence (1 before 2). Purchasing Exam 2 sometime in July just gives you one more time before the exam to figure out if you’re ready.
  • Rest up for the pre-exam Zoom sessions the third week of July. If you’ve been preparing and you feel ready for the exam, the NFLPA’s sessions will be really helpful. If you use them as a review, in other words. If those sessions ARE your exam prep . . . I don’t like your odds.
  • Join us for our final exam review on Saturday, July 19. We’ll cover the topics that the PA tested for on last year’s exam (there were some really off-the-wall questions). It will be a two-hour session and we’ll go through our mock test, question by question. We do this on Saturday so you have a full Sunday to go over things. Cost will be $70. Once again, we’ll start registering for it in mid-July.

This is the game plan I’d follow if I were you and hadn’t really started yet. Shoot, even if I had, I’d probably do it this way. I realize this involves spending some money, but would you rather have a few extra bucks in your pocket but risk failing? It’s going to cost money to succeed in this business, and the investment starts now.

I hope your next month goes well. Best of luck to you.

Thinking and Talking about the $20.5M Schools Need in the Revenue-Sharing Era

13 Friday Jun 2025

Posted by in NIL, Scouts

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Last week, the news broke that revenue-sharing is here. It’s a big story and represents major change in college football, but I think there’s something that’s being ignored: $20.5 million is a lot of money, and raising it is not going to be easy for anybody.

I should start by saying most scouts I’ve known are not especially business-minded. They just expect that the money to do things will be there, so I’m not picking on anyone in the industry for whistling past the graveyard when it comes to money. Still, it doesn’t make it any less true that coming up with the dollars is going to mean great pressures, and they may eventually fall on people in the industry.

At any rate, I texted with several friends at the GM/DPP level at P4 schools. Their response to how their athletic departments would raise the money varied.

  • One referred to a donor drive at his previous school. He didn’t mention what the results were, and I didn’t ask. I just don’t see an annual donor drive not succumbing to fatigue from the alumni.
  • One pointed out that Michigan — the mighty Wolverines — have already announced a 10 percent staff cut due to a revenue decline associated with fewer football home games this season.
  • One said he expects schools to raise money the old-fashioned way — ticket prices and student fees. OK, but I don’t think the old ways are going to be enough. Maybe I’m wrong. He also said he expects cuts to football departments: “Hard to have 50 recruiting, creative or even analysts positions when you have to pay the players.”
  • Only two admitted concern about financial pressures. One said that some schools will get half the sum from athletic department revenues (others will get all of it from there). His will not. I suspect his school is not in the minority. The other one, though feeling far more secure about his own school’s prospects, admitted that “there’s very likely to be teams that don’t have that lying around.”
  • One expressed optimism that schools would come up with the cash because they always have. I’d say that’s accurate, but I still am not confident the money will come without strings attached.

Not many of them thought private equity would be necessary, though I don’t share that opinion. Just this week, we started seeing stories about schools like Alabama, Purdue, Penn State and UCLA and how they are weighing capital infusions. That’s a really big deal. Private equity doesn’t care about tailgating, character development, a band’s performance at halftime, percentage of players who earned their degrees, or anything else. They care about making money. Even as cynical and money-focused as college football has become, that’s a new frontier.

I spoke to a friend who’s knowledgeable about this things, and he said he sees a plus to the new demands because (a) it might force schools to cut back on their excessive staffing and (b) might even curb coaches salaries (though he admitted that’s a long shot). OK, maybe, but I don’t know if a few cuts here and there will be enough to make a difference.

I don’t know if I got any real answers, but I did get confirmation that not all schools will come up with the money the same way, and obviously, this is not going to be a level playing field financially. Like everyone else, I guess I’ll be watching closely to see which schools do this successfully, and which ones figure things out that others can’t. But I have this gnawing suspicion that many will be hurt by these new changes. We’ll see.

2025 NFL Agent Exam: You Gotta Read This Advice

05 Thursday Jun 2025

Posted by in Agent Exam, Agents, Getting started

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With the 2025 NFL Agent Exam less than two months away, we are officially in the red zone as it relates to the exam. At ITL, helping people pass the exam is a big part of what we do, so I recently reached out to several successful test-takers from last summer to get their recommendations on how to study.

They were all very good, but one stood out in particular. It was the email sent me by Norcross, Ga.-based Sean McIlhinney, who put not one, but two, players on 90-man rosters as a rookie agent despite being independent.

What follows is Sean’s response to my request for advice on how to pass, and I recommend that you heed all of it. OK, maybe not ALL of it, but most of it. Here goes:

“Attending the two-day overview that the NFLPA offers (the week before the exam) is a must! I would not have passed the test but for attending those two sessions.

“(As for study aids,) I only used the materials that the NFLPA provided to study. I focused on the item list that the NFLPA gave to study and actually prepared a typed, detailed outline of the item list. The outline was probably 20 pages. I waited until the last week to actually prepare the outline, and it was super helpful because (a) it helped reinforce everything I had learned from just reading the materials and (b) the outline referenced actual pages numbers in the materials given, so I was able to easily go to the NFL materials during the test if and when needed.   

“I truly did not start studying hard until the last month, when I studied every weekend for eight hours per day (Saturday and Sunday) just reading the materials. I would start off at a breakfast place reading, go to a pool and read for a few hours, and then end at another restaurant and read. Three different places each Saturday and Sunday for approximately 2.5 hrs at each venue to keep things exciting.  No real note-taking – I just read to understand and further familiarize myself with the materials. I definitely used my highlighter while I was reading, but no note-taking.  

“The one thing I wish I did was find some sample salary cap practice questions from a prior test to work through before the test. I understood the salary cap rules well going into the test, but I had never seen any practice questions, and thought it would have been very helpful to have done some practice salary cap questions instead of trying to figure it out on the fly during the test.

“I was told that you could not get up and use the bathroom during the test and was genuinely worried about that, so I sported an adult diaper just in case.  No joke. Fortunately, I never used the diaper and passed the test. 

“Good luck!”

For more advice (that might be quite as offbeat), check out this week’s Friday Wrap, which comes out at 7:30 p.m. on Friday’s (duh). You can register here.

Three Reasons Why Drew Fabianich Will Be Good for the Senior Bowl (and Scouting)

28 Wednesday May 2025

Posted by in Getting started, NFL draft, Scouts

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In this week’s Friday Wrap (register for it here), we’ll have an extended interview with Drew Fabianich, the new executive director of the Senior Bowl. Drew’s a longtime friend, and while I’m excited that the biggest all-star game got a very capable replacement for Jim Nagy, but I’m also happy that he’s committed to making the game a real platform for player evaluation and development of people who hope to work in this field.

Here are three reasons why I think Drew will be a real positive for scouts, past, present and future.

Drew has done and seen it all: Not only is Drew a committed scout, but he’s also spent years in coaching and also two stints as a P4 GM (Auburn and West Virginia). That’s the kind of modern perspective that I think will really bring an added dimension to the game.

He’s 100 percent committed to the Senior Bowl’s scout school and wants to expand it: The game annually brings in former players to get a chance to explore scouting, and the league endorses this. Not only is Drew a big fan of the game’s scout school, but he’s got a plan to expand things and give them exposure to what’s happening in the college ranks. “The way it will be different for me is that the league wanted me to put together a collegiate side, to tell (aspiring scouts) exactly how the collegiate side is growing and evolving, and where they could fit in there,” he said. “I will also be putting together, not this summer, but next July, we’re going to open up a scout school to really help the college guys – the student assistants, the recruiting coordinators, the DPPs – to develop young guys to come into this business, and especially give us a pipeline for guys that we would hire as scouting assistants also.” There will be a cost to this new two-day school, but it won’t be excessive. “It’s going to have minimal costs,” he emphasized. “Minimal. Just something to operate, that’s all it’s gonna be. It’s really for us to develop young guys and to find a pipeline to where they’d be interested in coming to work for the Senior Bowl, too.”

He’ll continue to employ former NFL scouts to help in building the roster: One innovation started by Phil Savage and expanded by Nagy was establishing a regional scouting staff populated by former NFL scouts. Countless good evaluators got to stay in the game by helping scour different parts of the country for the game. Some were retired, but some were scouts who were trying to get back in, and working for the game helped keep them sharp and relevant. I’m glad Drew will keep this program going.

I’m pretty excited about Drew’s tenure, and you’ll want to check out the rest of his thoughts in this week’s Wrap. Once again, if you don’t already receive it, I recommend you do. You can register here.

A Word of Advice If You’re Interviewing to be an NFL Scout

23 Friday May 2025

Posted by in Getting started, Scouts

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With most of the executive-level hires done across NFL front offices and most area scout slots filled, as well, we’re mostly at the point where teams are interviewing scouting assistants. For that reason, I thought it was a good time to address something I saw on social media recently. It’s related to how you interview.

I saw a post from a well-intentioned and frustrated aspiring scout. It lamented those who were getting interviews despite lacking the stack of reports that he had done. He implied he had worked a lot harder than some of those who were getting opportunities he wasn’t getting.

I’m sympathetic to this, and it’s true that this is still a who-you-know business. At the same time, I think there’s an important point to make.

When we conduct our annual December Zoom session with GMs and executives and the people we work with who are aspiring scouting assistants, there’s one thing they all say: don’t say you want to be a GM someday. I know that sounds counterintuitive, but there’s a good reason for it.

Most of the scouts and executives I talk to have a regular complaint about the younger generation of scouts, and it’s that they maybe have too much ambition. Or maybe it’s that they lack patience. They tell me they are being constantly hounded about promotions, or getting behind, or what it’s gonna take to make the next step. It’s exhausting to them. They don’t see young scouts as focused on getting good at their jobs as they are on getting a new job. That’s a big problem. I think there are even scouts who have lost their jobs because of their overly persistent attitudes about climbing the ladder.

There’s one thing teams want to find out, generally speaking, about their scouting assistant hires: how hard they will work. How good their attitude will be. How willing they will be to work on the details of one job before they’re seeking the next one. Some teams will want to see your reports, sure, and some will ask you to break down film, but not nearly as many as you might expect. More often than not, they’re going to presume you know a little football, and they feel they can teach you what you need to know. It’s far more important to come in with the frame of mind that you’re there to learn and you want to be a sponge.

If you’re reading this, and you get an interview in the coming weeks, I hope you already know this stuff, but if you don’t, I strongly suggest you follow my advice. It might be the difference.

Here’s an Update on Where NFL Front Office Vacancies Are

16 Friday May 2025

Posted by in NFL draft, Scouts

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The one question I get this time of year is, where are there jobs open? So maybe I can save myself a couple texts by publishing this rundown of not only where the openings are but my guesses on how the jobs will be filled. I hope you find it helpful.

Executive level (Director of College/Pro Scouting and up)

  • I don’t think the Jaguars are done yet. I”m still in the dark on what’s next, but it seems like they have a long way to go to make their front office resemble the Rams.
  • Speaking of the Rams, they’re down a Senior Personnel Executive due to the loss of Brian Xanders to Jacksonville.
  • Most of the executive-level vacancies with the Jets have been filled. I haven’t heard of any big names getting ready to go to the Big Apple.
  • The Eagles are missing a Senior Director of College Scouting and a Senior Director of Scouting (Anthony Patch and Brandon Hunt, respectively, both gone to Las Vegas). My guess is that they stay in-house to replace them both. I’ve heard Assistant Director of College Scouting Ryan Myers is being elevated to director, for what it’s worth.
  • With the Patch and Hunt additions, in addition to the previous additions, I suspect the Raiders are done.
  • I expect movement on the pro side in Tennessee, but I don’t know what form that will take. I’m not sure if the team will have a pro director, or if the team’s pro scouts will work under someone at the executive level. New AGM Dave Ziegler has an extensive background on the pro side.
  • The Patriots lost their college director this week (Camren Williams).

Road level (National/College/Area/Pro Scout)

  • The Dolphins surprisingly said goodbye to Senior Scout Jim Abrams early in the post-draft process. He still hasn’t been replaced.
  • These are truly weird days because, based on what I’ve heard, the eternally frugal Bengals are replacing one loss (Christian Sarkisian to Northwestern) with not one, but two, hires.
  • I think the Giants are going to stay at two National Scouts since saying goodbye to Mike Derice.
  • If what happens in Jacksonville turns out to be what I expect to happen, there could be a lot of Jaguars scouts who could be on the way out. When/if that happens, I don’t expect them to be replaced. The only thing that could make this plan go awry is that the team has several area scouts with a year left on their respective contracts, and Jax has a reputation for preferring not to let scouts go if their respective contracts are not up.
  • On the pro side, the Rams tend to run pretty lean, so I don’t think either of the Pro Scouts no longer with the Jags (Geep Chryst and Chris Ash) will be replaced. Technically, they’ve already moved Rory Segrest into one of those slots (from the coaching side) already.
  • The sense I get is that former Rams National Scout Michael Pierce is “on the street” and doesn’t have an imminent new post. Between Michael, Derice and Abrams, there are some truly great scouts available right now. And those are just three names; there are many more whose reputation I don’t know as well.
  • Speaking of the Rams, though they do things a little differently, they did carry six area scouts last year. Right now, they have one (1), having either said goodbye to or promoted all six since mid-March. I don’t know exactly how they’ll address all of that, but I don’t think they have enough people in-house to find replacements around the office.
  • New England has a vacancy at Area Scout (Josh Hinch, though he’s soon to be announced as joining another team).
  • I could see movement with the Chargers, given second-year GM Joe Hortiz didn’t make a lot of changes a year ago. I’ve also heard many/most of the team’s scouts’ contracts are up. However, the team has had some pretty good drafts of late, so maybe Hortiz resists the impulse to bring in his own guys just for change’s sake.
  • I wouldn’t be surprised if the Packers or Falcons didn’t replace their recent losses. May be true of the Dolphins as well.
  • I think the Jets will replace Johnathon Stigall (Raiders) in-house. However, I know they’ve been interviewing aggressively and they’ll be bringing in at least one new Area Scout from the college ranks.

Scouting Assistant

  • This is where I expect the most change over the next month now that teams are filling in at higher levels.
  • The Eagles are pretty slim here (they have just two), which means, depending on how the dominoes fall, they may be aggressively looking for replacements soon. Typically, their model is to bring in 3-4 training camp interns and let them fight it out for the open scouting assistant positions, so we may not see clarity at that level in Philly for a while.
  • Looking at the Jaguars again, if GM James Gladstone wants to make his front office an exact duplicate of where he came from, I wouldn’t expect any hires, and maybe even some releases.
  • The Bucs just promoted two Scouting Assistants into more senior roles.
  • With Maya Ana Callender’s exit, the Patriots have a vacancy.
  • I’ve heard the Cardinals and Titans both recently made decisions on hires at this level.

For even more insider-level stuff on scouting, make sure to register for the Friday Wrap here.

A New Way to Network: Introducing OG1 Coaches

09 Friday May 2025

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This time of year, I get one question all the time — “what can I do to get a job in scouting?”

I have a standard email I send out, but this year, I may be adding something to it. My friend and longtime NFL agent Bruce Tollner told me this morning about a new website he’s created called OG1 Coaches. I tweeted about it this morning, but I thought it deserved a little more development, so I’m doing that here.

As I said in the tweet, it’s kind of like LinkedIn for football coaches, only you don’t have to be a coach. You could also be a scout or executive. Even an agent. Anyone who wants to market himself to teams, colleges, or anyone else who’s doing hiring.

“To every coach, scout, and personnel member who has committed their life to the game — this platform was built for you,” Bruce wrote in an email. “After 30-plus years working alongside athletes, coaches, and front office personnel — from high school programs to Super Bowl Sundays — we’ve seen firsthand how much they give. This network was created to pour back into coaches.”

The idea is that once a coach registers, he builds a profile, which is free. Bruce calls it a “digital portfolio handshake.” Successfully building a profile makes the participant come to life. This allows a coach to:

Tell His Story in The Best Light: Create a profile showcasing his experience, coaching philosophy, references, videos, and credentials. This allows him to create a strong digital impression with ADs, GMs, recruits and peers. Let’s say a coach used to work for a Nick Saban, a Tubby Smith or Bruce Bochy. He can’t expect those coaches to constantly field calls from his potential employers, but if one of them were to make a quick video testimonial on his phone, then send it to the coach, it just makes things more efficient and economical, but no less effective.

Connect With a Real Community: The site allows the user to join a network of coaches, scouts, and decision-makers across high school, college, and pro levels. Participants can share insights, grow together, and stay plugged in. There’s value in that.

Advance Your Career: Whether a coach is seeking his next role, recruiting, or mentoring others, OG1 Coaches provides tools, resources, and opportunities to support your journey.

In the past, getting hired has been almost all about who a coach knows. That’s one of the first thing I tell potential scouts. I could see that changing now. With the OG1 Coaches website, employers can sort through candidates anonymously. Everybody wins. Again, it’s a little like LinkedIn, but with greater automation.

If you’re looking for an edge and a way to get in on the ground floor with a service with really great potential, give OG1 Coaches a shot.

Do NFL Scouting Additions Really Mean Anything?

01 Thursday May 2025

Posted by in NFL draft, Scouts

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These days, there’s a lot of movement in NFL front offices. That’s just the nature of the post-draft period. Once the picks are in, teams tend to reshape their scouting staffs, especially if there’s a new GM in town.

Often, changes in a team’s scouting lineup are met with great fanfare, especially when a struggling team starts turning the page on some of its longer-serving officials. But is this warranted? And is there any link between the scouts a team might add and their success on following draft days? It’s hard to tell, but here are my thoughts on what to look for when you see faces change in NFL front offices.

Awards and accomplishments: There’s no PFF for scouts. It’s very hard to know which ones are good and which ones just happened to be with good organizations. What’s more, we’re seeing, time and again, that some of the scouts who are most respected by their peers get let go anyway. Despite this, we launched the BART List Awards in 2022 to give scouts a chance to recognize the best of their brethren. Though it’s only been four years, if you know a scout won a BART List Award (as I always try to include in my posts, when relevant), you know that other active NFL scouts think he’s good. I think that carries weight, whether or not his team recognizes it or not.

Their previous organizations: The Lions’ turnaround started when they brought in Brad Holmes from the Rams as the new GM. These days, the Lions and the Rams are perennial playoff teams with outstanding leadership. Last year, new Commanders GM Adam Peters arrived from the 49ers and rebuilt the team’s front office with executives from the Lions (Assistant GM Lance Newmark), Ravens (Director of Player Personnel David Blackburn) and Seahawks (Personnel Executive Scott Fitterer, by way of the Panthers). All four of those organizations (San Francisco, Detroit, Baltimore and Seattle) are NFL bluebloods. Though those new additions (who all arrived in May or later) didn’t draft for Washington in 2024, obviously, I”m confident Peters’ staff is going to bear fruit quickly.

Look at who they are: The Raiders announced Wednesday that they’d be bringing in Johnathon Stigall as the team’s new Assistant Director of College Scouting, and the move drew raspberries from some on Twitter. Really? Here’s what you need to know about Johnathon:

  • He actually played the game at the college level as a running back at DePauw in the late 90s. Scouts who are ex-college players is becoming rare.
  • He has almost 30 years in NFL player evaluation (he’s entering his 27th year).
  • He’s worked for the late Tom Heckert (Browns), Howie Roseman (Eagles), Rick Spielman (Dolphins) and the late Mark Hatley (Bears). Those might not all be household names, but they are all highly respected in NFL circles. Trust me.
  • He was part of a Jets staff that drafted the OROY (Ohio State WO Garrett Wilson) AND the DROY (Cincinnati DC Sauce Gardner) in the same year (2022).
  • We’ve presented the BART List Award four years. He’s won three of them. We hand out 20-30 each year, so it’s not like he’s the one award winner, but it’s still impressive.

That’s a resume. If you’re a Raiders fan, you should feel really good about landing Johnathon. I can assure you new Jets GM Darren Mougey wasn’t happy to see him go.

It’s important to recognize that no team bats 1.000 in the draft. Shoot, if you bat .800 on Day 1 and Day 2 and .500 on Day 3, you’re almost guaranteed to be a perennial playoff team. But there are signs that some teams do it better than others, and I feel strongly that these are the best metrics as you follow along with the new additions during “scout hiring season.”

Does Trading Back Always Work? A 2016 Case Study

21 Monday Apr 2025

Posted by in NFL draft

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“Trade back!”

It’s the constant chant from the fan of the struggling team with needs everywhere. The thinking is that more picks is always better, and that if you have enough at-bats, you’re sure to get a hit somehow. Well, maybe that’s the perception, but it’s not necessarily the truth. We see this in the 2016 NFL Draft, which is the year we chronicle in Value Picks: The Drama, Decisions and Details Behind Eight Selections in the 2016 NFL Draft. Let’s set the scene.

Analytics-minded Paul Depodesta had just come over from the Mets to be Cleveland’s Chief Strategy Officer, and the team’s philosophy, draft-wise, became quantity over quality. Throw enough picks at the wall, the thinking was, and the law of averages says you have to find at least a few players. After a flurry of pre-draft and draft-day trades, the team wound up with 14 picks, with six of them in the top 100. The deals included:

  • Trading the No. 2 pick and a conditional fifth-rounder to the Eagles for Philadelphia’s first-, third- and fourth-rounders (8, 77 and 100) in 2016 and their first- and second-rounder in 2017.
  • Trading the Eagles’ first-rounder (No. 8 in the draft) and a sixth-rounder (176) to the Titans in exchange for Tennessee’s first- and third-round selections (15 and 76, respectively) in addition to a second-rounder in 2017.
  • Trading their third- and fifth-rounders (77 and 141) to the Panthers in exchange for the Panthers’ third-, fourth- and fifth-rounders (93, 129, 168).
  • Trading their fourth (100) to the Raiders in exchange for Oakland’s fourth- and fifth-rounders (114 and 154).
  • Trading their seventh-rounder (223) to the Dolphins in exchange for a seventh (250) and DC Jamar Taylor.

That’s a lot of trading, and every time, the Browns traded back. But did it work out?

First, let’s look at the players Cleveland drafted, with the number of seasons each played in the NFL and his last season with the Browns.

  • Baylor WO Corey Coleman (1/15): Played five seasons, last one 2017.
  • Oklahoma St. DE Emmanuel Ogbah (2/32): Played nine seasons, last one in 2018.
  • Penn St. DE Carl Nassib (3/65): Played seven seasons, last one 2017.
  • Auburn OT Shon Coleman (3/76): Played seven seasons, last one in 2017.
  • UsC QB Cody Kessler (3/93): Played four seasons, last one in 2017.
  • Wisconsin IB Joe Schobert (4/99): Played seven seasons, last one in 2019.
  • Auburn WO Ricardo Louis (4/114): Played four seasons, last one in 2018.
  • TCU FS Derrick Kindred (4/129): Played three seasons, last one in 2018.
  • Princeton TE Seth DeValve (4/138): Played five seasons, last one in 2018.
  • Baylor WO Jordan Payton (5/154): Played two seasons, last one in 2017.
  • Baylor OT Spencer Drango (5/168): Played four seasons, last one in 2017.
  • Colorado St. WO Rashard Higgins (5/172): Played seven seasons, last one in 2021.
  • La..-Monroe DC Trey Caldwell (5/173): Played one season, last one in 2016.
  • Arizona IB Scooby Wright (7/250): Played three seasons, last one in 2016.

Now let’s look at what matters most: the Browns’ records over the next four seasons.

  • 2016: 1-15
  • 2017: 0-16
  • 2018: 7-8-1
  • 2019: 6-10

Ultimately, the team’s records (especially in 2016 and 2017) are the metric for judging how well the strategy worked. However, let’s look further at how the draftees did.

  • By 2019, not one of their Day 1 and Day 2 picks was on the team. None of them played more than two seasons with the team.
  • By 2020, their next winning season after 2016 (they went 11-5), only one of their draftees (fifth-rounder Higgins) was still with the team.
  • None of the picks played more than nine seasons. All but one of the eight players we profile in Value Picks (Ohio State’s Michael Thomas) played at least nine seasons.
  • Only one (Wisconsin IB Joe Schobert) made a Pro Bowl (and he only made one). 
  • The average NFL player sticks around 3.5 seasons in the league, but only eight of Cleveland’s 14 played more than three. Four played three or fewer.

Trading back can work, and maybe this example is a bit extreme. Still, it’s an illustration of what can happen. Bottom line, if you’re going to trade back, you’d better have conviction on the players still available and a plan for getting help when you finally get to make the picks.