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Guest Columnist: Take Value Pts With a Grain of Salt

26 Tuesday Apr 2016

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Earlier this month, I had lunch with my former business partner, Troy, and posted here about it. He thinks a lot about the draft and closely follows the process as well as the prospects. For that reason, when he took issue with one of my posts last week, I asked him to develop his opinion so I could publish it here. He makes some great points.

I’ll turn it over to Troy.

So much is made of the NFL Draft value points chart created more than a quarter century ago by former Cowboys head coach Jimmy Johnson. It’s natural this time of year — especially with the recent blockbusters involving a bundle of picks for the No. 1 and 2 overall selections.

While a fun exercise in theory, my argument is that the chart is completely irrelevant for teams without a franchise QB for this simple reason: The league, more than ever, is comprised of “haves” and “have-nots.” Those with a clear-cut, long-term guy under center will be in the mix each year. And those without? Their only chance is that stars align for their team in a one-off season.

Therefore, instead of looking at a complex points chart, the have-nots should be doing whatever’s necessary to put themselves in position to get their long-term solution at QB because, long term, the bundle of draft picks (and “points”) you give up are irrelevant.

Looking back at its origin, the points system was useful for Johnson at the time. He was gift-wrapped Troy Aikman and soon acquired a boatload of picks from Minnesota in the Herschel Walker deal. So it made sense to use metrics to gain valuable assets to surround the future Hall of Fame QB and a pretty barren roster. I would even argue that the point system can be valuable today for teams such as Green Bay and Indianapolis that are trying to build talent around their franchise QB.

However, the major flaw in a rigid point system is that all the slotted picks are not created equal. For example, under the point chart, the No. 1 overall pick is worth 3,000 points, with No. 2 being 2,600, No. 3 at 2,200, and so on.

Look at recent history. In 2011 and 2012, the first picks were Cam Newton and Andrew Luck. In 2013-2014, they were Eric Fisher and Jadeveon Clowney. Anyone think those picks should be looked at equally, as they are by the points chart?

Fisher, Clowney and other non-QB top picks are nice prospects, but they are not winning you games week-in, week-out. QBs like Luck and Newton can single-handedly win games and keep their respective teams in the playoff mix every year for decade. How can you put a point total on that?

For example, if prior to the 2012 draft, Cleveland, which picked No. 3, would have offered Indianapolis five No. 1 draft picks to move up just two spots, advocates of the value points chart would have jumped all over the deal. Those who follow the chart would argue that five No. 1 draft choices would far outweigh getting that single pick.

However, since a true franchise QB was involved, I would argue that giving up those picks would still be a great bargain for the Browns. With Luck as its franchise QB, the Browns would have almost certainly made a couple of playoffs appearances—or at least been in the mix each of the past four years. It could then focus on building around its young signal-caller with a clear direction for the next decade.

And the Colts, taking what the Browns offered, could have then selected (as the Browns actually did with its next five No. 1 picks) Trent Richardson, Barkevious Mingo, Justin Gilbert, Johnny Manziel and Danny Shelton. Guess what? If that had happened, four years later the Colts would still have no idea what direction it was going and no chance to compete each of the last four seasons … much like the Browns today.

Moving forward to what we’ve seen in the past couple of weeks, I’ve heard so many ‘NFL insiders’ say “the Rams gave up way too much” or “the Eagles could wreck their franchise for years if this trade doesn’t work out.” It’s all complete hogwash.

Just take a look at the most recent ‘blockbuster’ trade from 2012, involving the Rams and Redskins. Washington essentially gave up the Nos. 6 and 39 overall picks in 2012, No. 22 in 2013 and No. 2 overall pick in 2014.

People said the Redskins “mortgaged their future” on the prospects of Robert Griffin III. Well, obviously, he didn’t work out in Washington, as four years later he’s in Cleveland. Yet, since the trade, the Redskins have won the NFC East twice in the past four seasons—once with RGIII and once with Kurt Cousins— yet remain a have-not in the bigger picture in terms of being a real Super Bowl threat. The Redskins are essentially in the same boat they were before the trade.

On the flip side, we heard so much about how the Rams gouged the Redskins and setting themselves up as real contenders because of the haul of picks in the deal. Yet, after it was all said and done, the players they took with the Redskins’ picks were DT Michael Brockers, DC Janoris Jenkins, OH Isaiah Pead, OG Rokevious Watkins, IB Alec Ogletree, WO Stedman Bailey, OH Zac Stacy and OT Greg Robinson. And exactly how many wins have those guys contributed to over the past four years? Very few. The Rams basically remain in the same position they were before the blockbuster. A have-not. Both teams are still searching for that guy.

So, let’s bring the discussion back to last week’s deal between the Browns and Eagles. Who is the likely winner and loser?

To me, at least Philadelphia has the potential to be the big winner. Why? Because it put itself in a position to get a potential franchise QB and be a “have” franchise for a decade. Conversely, the Browns might very well build up quite a talented roster but it will remain a “have-not” without that special guy taking snaps.

Who knows if Jared Goff or Carson Wentz will be the man for his respective team? But I’ll always applaud a team that doesn’t have a franchise QB trying everything in its power to acquire one.

In a nutshell, I’m not saying acquiring a bunch of picks cannot be valuable assets. What I am saying is that in today’s NFL, when a potential franchise QB is involved, a ‘bunch of guys’ does not equal ‘The Guy.’

Draft Week Interview: Tyler Glass of G3 Sports

25 Monday Apr 2016

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This week, I’m trying to interview newer agents because I find their experiences more relevant for people trying to break into the football business (and because this blog is dedicated to that audience). Today, I spoke to Tyler Glass of G3 Sports. Tyler is based in Red Bank, N.J., and is the son of an established NBA agent. To his credit, Tyler has tried something new, and it looks like he’s making some headway.

Tyler is also interesting because he took on a player — UTEP TE Cedrick Lang — who played one year of college football in a remote location (El Paso, Texas). In the interest of full disclosure, I worked with Cedrick’s parents a bit during the early stages of the pre-draft process, so I have a bit of a rooting interest here. At any rate, here’s Tyler.

“I’m kind of excited this week. It’s been interesting, very interesting.

“I’ve got four kids for this draft. They are Rutgers OH Paul James, Georgia St. QB Nick Arbuckle and Cedrick, and then DE Blake Serpa out of CMU, and I’ve heard from a lot of teams on all of them. What that means, I’m not 100 percent sure. Some of these guys, the interest is stronger than others, but you don’t really know what’s gonna happen. You don’t have a crystal ball. I’ve been through this so many times in the NBA; it’s like the wild west. Unless you have a clear (early-round pick), it’s kind of (uncertain).

“It’s a lot different from last year. Last year, I only had a couple months to recruit. None of them made it, but they all knew (they wouldn’t), and they were fantastic kids. I’ve learned a lot since last year.

“On Cedrick, the experience has been a lot of fun. I’ve been in the NBA for 10 years and my dad has been in it for 34 years, but I’ve transitioned into football. To carry Ced into that, it’s been the perfect fit. From my view, it’s been great. With the training, it matters where you are and who believes in the kid. Sometimes (the training) doesn’t really matter, but with Ced, it mattered. He had to learn things he’d never learned before.

“I sat down with Cedrick when I was recruiting him, and I said, ‘the NFL is 32 teams, but your NFL is not 32. It’s maybe four or five or six teams. We’ll need someone with the vision I had when I signed him.’ They need to know it’s not where he is right now, but where he can be down the road. Some teams don’t want to see that vision but other teams do, and those are the teams that are fun and those are the ones I like. It’s been fun and interesting. I’ve been so proud of him and he’s worked so hard. He’s the best kid I’ve ever had. He deserves it.

“His all-star game, the College Gridiron Showcase, is where he opened some eyes. Some teams saw him as an offensive tackle, and some as a tight end. The majority saw him as a tight end. I can’t count how many phone calls or emails I’ve sent reaching out to teams, but some of these guys in the NFL are really smart, and they saw him and bought in at the all-star game, and some kinda bought in when he started at UTEP. Some have been right on my page from Day 1. Some I’ve had to push along the way, and others haven’t had the same vision.

“Has half the league showed interest? I’d say more than half, but where that level of interest is, it could be in any type of range. That’s what I feel comfortable saying at this point.

“I don’t want to say he doesn’t care about whether or not he gets drafted, but obviously, if he gets drafted, it’s an amazing thing in the way that he gets there or got there. It’s a really unique story. He just wants to get in a facility and get going. That’s his mentality. He just wants to work. He wants to know, when am I getting there? When am I going to work? That’s how it’s been since his first day training in New Jersey. He’s not an easy guy to kick down. He just keeps fighting.

“I haven’t discussed (how the college basketball player as tight end prospect phenomenon) has specifically helped him, but I think it has. I think this has become a nice little trend in the league. I think, globally, basketball players are the best athletes in the world. Ced wasn’t even brought in to be a tight end, but his hands were so good that it was an automatic that he’d do that. His background automatically has gotten people to take a second look or a first look, whatever that might be.

“Catching a football, we’ve never had a concern with that. He’s been catching basketballs, which are rounder and bigger, so it’s never been a concern. I wouldn’t say anything in particular has been difficult, but everything that he’s learning is fresh and new. What’s been impressive is that it doesn’t take him long to learn. He hasn’t really experienced it, so it’s so raw, but once it goes in, as long as the right people are teaching it, it goes in. He’s so coachable. I’ve enjoyed working for him. It’s been a lot of fun, I gotta be honest.”

 

Viewing the Eagles-Browns Deal Using Value Points

22 Friday Apr 2016

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Here’s an interesting way to look at the trade the Eagles’ made with the Browns this week that you maybe haven’t seen in the media.

This time of year, especially when draft trades are made, you hear about the value points chart made by the Cowboys in the Jimmy Johnson years. However, you rarely see trades viewed through this prism, so let’s do that with the Eagles deal.

Let’s start with the Eagles. They get the No. 2 pick in the draft (2,600 points according to the chart) plus a fourth-rounder in ’17. More on that later.

The Browns got the No. 8 pick in the draft plus the No. 77 pick (a third-rounder) and the No. 100 pick (fourth round). According to the chart, that’s 1,605 points (1,400 points, 205 points and 100 points). They also get a first-rounder in ’17 and a second-rounder in ’18. So before we count the future picks, the Browns are ‘down’ about a thousand points.

Now let’s look to the future. We’ll put the best spin on things for the Eagles and say that the Browns pick first in 2017. We’ll also say the Eagles, loaded for bear with three talented passers and newly Chip-free, win the Super Bowl in ’17 and ’18. That means the Browns’ fourth-rounder is worth 112 points (give or take a few points based on the number of compensatory picks next year and a few other factors) and the last picks in the first round in ’17 and second round in ’18 are worth 590 and 270 points, respectively. If all these things happen — the Browns are the worst team in football in ’16 and the Eagles win consecutive Super Bowls — the Eagles win via the points total, but just barely at 2700-2565.

For what it’s worth, this is unlikely to happen, which means the Browns are likely to win the points total. Still, it’s close.

Of course, the question to ask is, do teams actually use this chart? I get different answers from scouts, but rarely hear chatter about it during draft week. I think most teams don’t total up the points because the media doesn’t — you will probably not read an analysis like this anywhere else on the Web — and therefore, teams don’t care. They don’t have to cover themselves by making the points work.

Anyway, just a little fun with numbers to kick off the less-than-one-week countdown to draft day. Have a great weekend.

’16 Draft Story: Business Arena’s Travis Martz on UNC-Central’s Ryan Smith

19 Tuesday Apr 2016

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We’re nine days out from the NFL draft, and with that in mind, I thought I’d reach out to some of my friends in the agent community to talk about the draft stories for some of their better clients. Today, I reached out to Annapolis, Md.-based Travis Martz of Business Arena.

Travis reps North Carolina Central DC Ryan Smith, who’s one of the hottest small-school corners in the ’16 draft. He’s expected to go in the fourth- or fifth-round range after a sterling combine followed by a great pro day. This is all taking place despite the fact Ryan didn’t play in an all-star game and wasn’t highly regarded coming out of high school. In fact, he wasn’t a guy who generated much buzz at all going into the season.

Travis picks up the story right from where he started the recruiting process up until today, shortly before draft day.

“Ryan was suggested to me by a scout, and Ryan happened to live about an hour away from me. Essentially, the conversation (with the scout) was, ‘there’s a kid in your backyard who’s buzzing, and who comes from a good family, and you should talk to him.’ I got his number through his high school coaches, and they connected us that way. So I went down and met with him and his family, and had a great meeting. His parents were very professional.

“So I didn’t know what I had until I started calling teams, and then I found out Ryan was a guy that was pretty widely known with scouts, though media wasn’t (clued in), as expected. Scouts were buzzing pretty hard. So I was able to sign him.

“He didn’t have any postseason. His season was done in late November, so through the month of December, I really just pressed Ryan on keeping his conditioning so that he would be ready to play in an all-star game. He didn’t play in any games — he was a wait-list kid for the Senior Bowll, and it got to be early January with no invites, so it was Senior Bowl or bust. It didn’t concern me that he didn’t play, given that some of those games are political and invites go out way earlier than they should. So what we did was, I prepped Ryan that month of December about keeping his conditioning, and not trying to be a track star way too early. We were going to let the experts determine when to peak.

“So I sent him to Fit Speed Athletic Performance in Weston, Fla., back in January, and he got most of his draft prep there. He also worked on his nutrition and training and did a lot of position work and board work, and also some simulated coaching interviews, and he really enjoyed his time down there.

“At the combine, we knew he would perform well if he didn’t get hurt. He turned a lot of heads, and we knew that would happen. It wasn’t a surprise to us going into the combine.

“Immediately after the combine, I received a few text messages from teams because the (40 times) they had, as far as the timing for the electronic radar, was off. Most teams had a much faster time on Ryan, and so I got a lot of calls and texts right afterwards saying, ‘good training, the guy really is a definite third- or fourth-round lock. The film looked good, but to get that confirmation (helped). From then on, it’s been a whirlwind.

“At the combine, I had him meet with a defensive backs coach at the Omni, and he said, ‘here’s the deal with the interviews: don’t try to talk in eloquent prose. If you got in trouble at school, just tell them you got in trouble at school. Just be honest, that’s all the teams care about.’ So that was a good, comforting conversation.

“At the combine, the only team that did an interview was the Colts, which I thought was a little surprise. They were the only team to give him an official interview.

“As soon as the combine ended, the Top 30 visits hit like crazy. He’s been on six Top 30 visits and he’s gone to two local pro days (Ravens and Redskins), including Washington today. He’s not working out in Washington, just talking to executives, and he’s done working out until the draft. For his last (Top 30 visit), he goes out to see the Rams, and he’s also had five or six workouts with position coaches, with DB coaches who either went to his pro day or came to Washington, D.C. Arizona and Indy both worked him out here at his high school. So from that, that’s been sort of the routine.

“After the combine, he came back to D.C. and took some time off. Then we worked on his conditioning, then had him come back down to UNC-Central for pro day. He had a whirlwind pro day, and a couple teams came back to Durham to see Ryan after that specifically. So he was down there 4-5 days after pro day, then back to DC for a whirlwind Top 30 tour, and we’re done after tomorrow. For the most part, there’s nothing else to be done. All the evidence has been presented. The ‘judges’ in those 32 rooms will make their decisions. He’s done everything he’s been expected to do, everything he’s been asked.”

Adding It All Up

18 Monday Apr 2016

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My friend Justin VanFulpen of FootballNextLevel created an interesting list today that you should check out. It’s a list I’ve been wanting to compile for some time, but haven’t ever gotten around to. You can check it out here. Basically, Justin ran down the number of players, by position, that have been drafted over the last five years. Though none of the totals come as a shock, it’s still a fascinating feature and I encourage you to check it out.

By the way, first a shameless plug: Justin and I collaborate on a weekly podcast on the football business. You can check that out here.

Anyway, it’s very interesting how many agents describe their clients as “late-rounders.” The draft is a funny thing, and you never know what’s going to happen on draft day. I get it. However, on average, three fullbacks are drafted per year. So how is it that every agent who reps a fullback claims his guy is a ‘late-rounder.’ The average number of kickers and punters drafted annually — combined! — is about three. Yet any time someone tweets about a punter/kicker, he’s almost always described as a late-round prospect. Well, unless he’s the top-rated guy at his position, he ain’t getting drafted.

This is one of the fundamental problems I have with draft coverage. Look, it’s entertainment, and trying to really deconstruct such things is like trying to fact-check an article from People magazine. Still, when you look at the number of late-round and undrafted players that make a real impact on the NFL, it’s substantial. So why doesn’t anyone take a real look at the number of players that can logically be expected to get a UDFA deal? It’s something I’ve always wondered, and it’s a number that I think is relevant as agents hope against hope that their clients will get drafted, or at least signed, in a week and a half.

Here’s an idea: let’s use Justin’s numbers to guess as to how many players per position will even get UDFA deals. If we total up the number of players by position are drafted, we get 254.8 (call it 255) over 15 positions. Breaking it down by percentage of draftees, here’s what it looks like QBs 4.3 percent; running backs, 8.2 percent; fullbacks, 1.2 percent; wide receivers, 12.3 percent; tight ends, 5.3 percent; tackles, 8.5 percent; guards, 6.4 percent; centers, 2.4 percent; defensive ends, 9.6 percent; defensive tackles, 7.6 percent; linebackers, 12.8 percent; cornerbacks, 12.9 percent; safeties, 7.1 percent; kickers, .7 percent; and punters, .5 percent.

Each team brings in, on average, about 10 undrafted free agents, so with 32 teams, that’s about 320 guys signed after the draft. Applying those percentages to each position, the number of non-draftees signed after draft, by position, is 14 quarterbacks (plus 11 drafted means about 25 on contract); 26 running backs (plus 21 drafted means about 47 on contract); four fullbacks (plus 3, or 7 on contract); 39 wide receivers (plus 31, 70 on contract); 17 tight ends (30); 27 tackles (49); 21 guards (37); eight centers (14); 31 defensive ends (55); 24 defensive tackles (44); 41 linebackers (74); 41 cornerbacks (74); 23 safeties (41); two kickers (4) and two punters (3).

Now, is there a place where you can truly find the top, say, 41 safeties available in the NFL draft? No, not really. The industry uses NFLDraftScout.com, and while those guys do a great job, they’re far from infallible. There are just too many schools, too many players, too many NFL teams and too many variables.

Bottom line, there is a finite number of players that can even be called possibilities as UDFAs. Keep this in mind as you hear the various players from smaller schools and less popular positions called “late-round or camp possibilities.”

 

 

How The Draft Works: My Take

15 Friday Apr 2016

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On Wednesday, I had lunch with an old friend. Actually, he’s more than an old friend; he’s a former business partner. In fact, if it weren’t for this friend, Troy, there’s no way I’d be in the football business. We started a small print draft publication, Lone Star Football, in the late 90s, and to show you how long-ago-and-far-away it was, we didn’t even have a website. Anyway, though it never took off, from its ashes sprung Inside the League. I wouldn’t have had the guts to start ITL if it weren’t for Lone Star Football, so for that, I’ll always tip my cap to Troy.

Anyway, we try to have lunch once a year at a Houston-area restaurant, and conversation always turns to the draft. In the course of Wednesday’s conversation, I told him that I had started ITL with the intention of learning exactly how and why teams drafted the way they do. Fourteen years later, I’m far from accomplishing that goal. However, there are three things I’ve learned. Or at least think I’ve learned. Here they are:

  • Most teams see the first four rounds as the time they have to take players they love and reasonably expect to start in their first year-and-a-half of play. These guys have to make the team and excel. The first four rounds are, for the most part, a very risk-averse time for most teams, so of the 120-150 players they rate as draftable, the first four picks will most certainly come from this group.
  • After the first four rounds, it’s lottery time. That’s when teams are mostly going to do one of two things. They’re either going to take a guy they thought was a sure Top-120 guy (even though they may wonder why he’s fallen so far) or they’re going to take a guy whose athleticism they’ve fallen in love with despite his lack of football experience, or acumen, or both. This is especially true of rounds 6 and 7. This tends to be where you see some real workout warriors picked. The last three picks are seen as expendable, for the most part. Why? Simple. It’s because no GM ever got fired because of the guy he picked, or didn’t pick, in the fifth round.
  • Teams are very, very, very sensitive to what other teams think. By now, you’ve probably seen the text Texans scout Rob Kisiel accidentally sent. Though it’s gotten way more play than it deserves – hasn’t everyone sent a misplaced text by now? – the substance of the text is similar to what most scouts send, i.e., brief, polite conversation followed by inquiries into who else has expressed interest. If you read Thursday’s post on our blog, you know several teams reached out to Texas Tech speed demon Jakeem Grant over the last month, wanting to know who else was reaching out to him. Before I got into this business, I thought all NFL teams intuitively knew the players inside and out, regardless of what others thought, and didn’t really care about other teams’ favorites. Having been doing this for almost two decades now, I know that isn’t the case.

 

Here’s What Scout Interest in a Non-Combine Invitee Looks Like

14 Thursday Apr 2016

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This time of year, I get lots of questions from newer agents about how they can drive interest in their clients, and what real interest from NFL teams even looks like. Do teams play it close to the vest, afraid their interest will be exposed? Or do they let it all hang out, throwing caution to the wind in an attempt to get as much info as possible on a player they like?

To get these answers, I called my former right-hand man at ITL, Houston-based Murphy McGuire, who passed the NFLPA exam last summer and who now represents Texas Tech WO/KR Jakeem Grant, who set the Internet on fire last month with his performance at the Red Raiders’ pro day. I’ll turn it over to Murphy on what Jakeem’s experience has been over the past three-plus months.

“When we signed him, I was of the belief he would be a late pick. He had a late-round grade. Now, in January, he was coming off a huge bowl game against LSU, and that really helped him a lot. Of course, he was also an All-American as a return guy, but his size is always the first thing teams talk about. At his bowl game (the College Gridiron Showcase in Bedford, Texas), he measured at 5-5 and 5/8, so he’s 5-6 in cleats. How many 5-6 players have been successful in the NFL?

“Anyway, I knew going into the CGS that we needed a good week, and he had a huge week, really lit it up, and talked to every team. All teams interviewed him, which was good, and created a really good vibe for us. Then we waited. I think there were two weeks from then until the last wave of invites to the combine, and there were 4-5 scouts that texted me and asked if Jakeem got a combine invite, and I said, ‘no, still nothing.’ I thought the scouts would hep push the needle for him, but they didn’t seem to, so no combine invite. But he said, ‘I don’t care, I’m gonna prove everyone wrong.’ He has a permanent chip on his shoulder. I mean, he set the all-time receiver mark at Texas Tech, which is kinda known for throwing the ball, so nothing deterred him.

“We got through that time, so he was training at D1 Sports Training in Lubbock (in February), and I got good feedback from his trainers there, but no calls through the combine and into early March. I maybe got two texts from scouts until his pro day on March 11.

“His pro day was crazy. He ran a stupid 40, had 15 reps and threw them up like Mighty Mouse, had a broad jump around 10 and his vertical was about 37 inches, so it was good. Anyway, I started getting calls then. His pro day was on a Friday (March 11), and I got a call from a national scout right after the pro day. He wanted to see him catch punts, but before that, wanted to huddle with his GM and scouts. That following Monday, (the national scout) reached back out, and that’s the week when we got calls, texts, emails, and I think that first week after (pro day) he had one workout, and the next week none, but we set up three the following week. Then this week, he had a Top 30 visit, and he has one next week. So far, he’s gotten four total workouts in Lubbock, plus two top 30 visits. He even had two workouts on the same day last week, one in the morning and one toward the afternoon. One team flew in the day before the workout, went to dinner with him and got to know him, and then the other flew in his special teams coach and watched him catch 7-8 punts, met him, then left. They really liked him.

“So overall, interest didn’t really start until after pro day. It’s a little out of the norm, his 40 time, but I would tell any agent who has a guy with a UDFA or late-round grade, call a scout or text a scout. A lot of times, scouts will respond to a text way faster (than a call). Email is OK, too, but I like to text them. I feel like I actually get more back from them that way. It’s convenient. He may be thinking, I’m not gonna call this (agent), but let me text him and start a dialogue. But most of them initiated contact.

“The one (scout who contacted me) today, about 48 hours ago, they told me, we’re not bring him in for a Top 30, and it was a scout that wasn’t even at the pro day who’s been talking to me. And he asked me, ‘how’s the interest level going,’ so I told him about the Top 30 visit and the workouts, and said, “I want to let you know, there’s a lot of interest.’ So I think I leveraged nothing into something. Then two days later, I got an email saying they want to bring him in, and when’s the best day? With a young (agent), you might be intimidated, but don’t be arfraid to push back. Say, ‘look, I understand your (situation), but there is interest, and if you want to do something with him, you might need to bring him in.’ I think I did a decent job of pushing back a little back.

“The first workout, one of the special teams coaches texted me, and then the last three reached out to Jakeem or me, and said, ‘we want to do this.’ Both of the Top 30 visits, the first one I spoke to the scouting coordinator a while, and then they brought him in. I don’t know if that has anyting to do with me or not, but there could be something there. I think I might have helped.

“I would say, of all the teams that have reached out ot me or Jakeem, Jakeem has been reached out to before me about 65-70 percent of the time. The player has been the first point of contact. That’s not what I expected, but that’s how it’s gone.

“I’m not sure what I expected. I expected interest. I expected teams to reach out. It just doesn’t become real until it really happens. You’re prepared, but you’re not, and then, it’s really happening. Luckily for me, working with ITL for the last three years, I got to meet a lot of agents who told me a lot of stories, so I kind of knew what to expect. It can be, man, I’m really talking to (a scout)! You can’t really expect it until it hits you in the face. I’ve had 3 special teams coaches call me, and they’ve told me to have my phone handy the week of the draft, and I assume most that have worked him out will want to be in touch, I don’t know if he’ll have any more workouts. I mean, I wasn’t expecting any Top 30 visits, but what’s to say there won’t be more?

A Look At NFL Coaches’ Alma Maters

11 Monday Apr 2016

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Recently, I did a breakdown of all the NFL coaches and assistant coaches (full positional coaches only — no ‘assistant safeties coaches’) and the schools they graduated from. It was interesting, and I thought I’d make a few observations based on the compiled list.

  • There’s an incredible amount of diversity, with 213 schools represented. That’s good news for people who aspire to be in the game, and something I’ve tried to hammer for a long time. No matter where you are, if your school has a football team, and you want to work in football, get your butt to the football office and volunteer. Immediately.
  • The top three schools are all football titans: Southern Cal leads with eight, while Penn State and Ohio State are tied for second with seven each.
  • Here’s something interesting. For ages, Miami (Ohio) has been known as the cradle of coaches for producing legendary names like Paul Brown, Woody Hayes, Bo Schembechler and Sid Gillman. Of course, football was very different then, and Miami (Ohio) could play on a more level playing field then. Mid-America Conference football is very different from what’s being played in the SEC, Pac-12 and ACC now, but the school is still producing coaches. It’s tied for No. 3 overall with Pittsburgh with six NFL coaches, and some of them are still quite young. They include Ravens head coach John Harbaugh as well as an offensive coordinator (Sean McVay, Redskins) and a former (interim) head coach, Aaron Kromer, who now coaches the offensive line for the Bills.
  • By the way, Miami (Ohio) has more coaches in the NFL (6 v. 5) than the ‘other’ Miami.
  • William & Mary is tied for sixth overall with five coaches in the NFL, while Indiana (Pa.), Montana and Springfield College are tied with four each. William & Mary, IUP and Montana are all FBS schools, but Springfield is Division III.  Again, you don’t have to go to a big school to make it to the NFL as a coach. Arizona State, BYU, Georgia, Michigan and Nebraska are all schools with just one coach in the NFL who graduated from their schools.
  • Other non-FBS schools in the top 38 are New Hampshire, North Dakota State and Southwestern Oklahoma, which each have three coaches in the league.

I hope these numbers show you that NFL coaches come from all around, and if pursuing a place in the league is your ambition, don’t let the school you attended stop you.

Defending Okung: An Interview with Jimmy Halsell (Pt. 2)

06 Wednesday Apr 2016

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On Tuesday, we posted an interview with former agent and ‘Skins cap guy J.I. ‘Jimmy’ Halsell regarding his work with new Broncos OT Russell Okung on his new contract. However, we had even more questions about the process of working with Okung and Jimmy’s thoughts on the reaction to the deal. We finish up our interview today.

 

How did you come to work with Okung on the contract? Did he approach you independently? Did the NFLPA play a role? Did you have a prior relationship with him?  “When I read last summer that he was going to do his second contract without an agent, but with the assistance of an expert, I knew that was right in my proverbial wheelhouse. I then put on my recruiter hat and leveraged my connections to get in touch with him prior to the 2015 season. That said, Russ and I never talked until the end of the season as he began to turn his attention to his impending second contract.  We quickly realized the mutual benefit and agreed to work together.”

 

What were the negatives you had going into free agency that you had to overcome?  “Russ’ January shoulder injury was the biggest obstacle going into free agency.  If Russ doesn’t incur that injury, then his free agent process is significantly different, even without the ability to talk to teams in advance of the start of free agency.”

Did Internet reaction to the contract surprise you?  “Not at all, since last summer when Russ announced his intentions, one could see the skepticism from agents and, in turn, from the media. That said, the overwhelming majority of players need an agent to advocate for them; Russ is unique given his personality, intelligence, and willingness to act on his vision.  The fact is that the media has misconstrued Russ’ contract at least in part (not in all instances) because there is a turf-protection agenda from some agents.  However, many athletes will not go Russ’ route not because of the misconstrued contract he signed but because they don’t have the same tools Russ possesses, and that’s OK, because that’s what agents are for.  So my overarching point is that, proverbially, everyone can eat.”

Do you plan on working with other players on their deals? Would you entertain such work if you were approached?  “In addition to Russ, I’ve worked on a couple of other deals this offseason as a consultant to the certified agent.  Regarding working directly with players, again, I don’t envision a lot of players having the confidence to pursue the path Russ did, but for those players who do have that confidence, then I’d absolutely be willing to be a consultant, just as I was to Russ.”

Make sure to follow Jimmy on Twitter here for his thoughts on the business of the game, with thoughts and analysis you won’t find anywhere else.

Defending Okung: An Interview with Jimmy Halsell (Pt. 1)

05 Tuesday Apr 2016

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Many argue that the NFLPA has conducted a rather extensive campaign to make contract advisors superfluous over the past couple years. One of the main elements of this campaign has been the free agency of OT Russell Okung. Okung made it clear going into free agency that he would do it without an agent, and he fearlessly entered into this ‘experiment’ with tools provided by the players association.

Obviously, this was met with consternation by veteran agents as well as newer ones who saw this as a transparent attempt by the union to rid itself of contract advisors and the fees they charge. So when Okung’s turned out to be far less than the flashy, big-bucks deal that some forecasted, critics came out in force.

With this in mind, we reached out to J.I. Halsell, who assisted Okung during the free agency process. J.I. is no rookie at this. Not only is he a former agent with one of the most prestigious firms in the business (Priority Sports, which has offices in Chicago, Los Angeles and Atlanta), and not only is J.I. formerly the Redskins’ cap specialist, but he’s probably the only guy on the Internet who’s dedicated to making the cap easier to digest and understand for the rank-and-file fan. He deals with cap questions on his Twitter account, and also runs a new site called NFLContractMetrics.com, which you’ll be hearing more about in this space in the near future.

We asked J.I. several questions related to the deal Okung signed, and we’ll have those tomorrow, but today, we wanted to focus solely on the deal. With that in mind, we asked this: What are the strengths of the deal? What are the strongest benefits for Okung?

His response is below.

 

Russ’ road to free agency was complicated by the shoulder injury he suffered in the Seahawks’ playoff loss to the Panthers, and it was a significant obstacle in hammering out a deal. That said, while we would have preferred a long-term deal, we expected that we were going to have to do a one-year deal, and then hit the market again next year.  The Broncos’ offer of a one-year deal with a base value of $5M (with the opportunity to earn up to $8M total) was the best offer we had from a total value perspective.

A lot has been made of the fact that this one-year deal has no money guaranteed at signing.  Other one-year offers made to Russ had money guaranteed, but not the same opportunity from a total value standpoint, so as we evaluated the Broncos’ offer, Russ and I were comfortable with his ability to earn the $1M workout bonus in Denver’s deal and accordingly viewed it as a “practical” guarantee.  So we viewed it as a one-year deal worth $5M with a practical guarantee of $1M on a club where there was mutual, strong interest.

With us feeling comfortable with the terms of the one-year portion of the deal, when Denver expressed interest in the “2-in-1” contract structure (a structure that had also been proposed by other suitors with significantly less money), if Russ were to take on that structure, then it was going to have to make sense financially. The deal proposed would be for one year with a club option for a multi-year deal thereafter. Russ viewed the option to add a four-year deal from 2017-2020 as a top-tier offensive tackle contract.

Denver’s offer was worth $12M per year, and would pay $20.5M fully guaranteed at the time the option was exercised, as well as $35.5M of the value in the first three years. When I viewed deals on the market at all positions whose ‘paper years’  (meaning without consideration of ‘old years’ already under contract) were four years in length, less than four paid more than $30M in the first three years, and only one paid more than $20.5M guaranteed. So again, with that perspective, Russ felt comfortable with the four-year deal part of this 2-in-1 structure, because even with the cap increasing and with a good 2016 season, Russ would be hard pressed to find a four-year deal that would pay to the same levels as the four-year deal contained in the Denver deal.

Whether or not Denver exercises the option remains to be seen, and will largely be dependent on Russ’ 2016 “prove it” performance.  If they choose to not exercise the option, then Russ got the best one-year deal he could, and will hit the market in 2017 as he originally thought he would under his injury circumstances.  If Denver exercises the option, then Russ gets a four-year deal that, relative to other pure four-year deals, is exceptional.

More from J.I. tomorrow.