Understanding Who’s In NFL Camps

05 Thursday May 2016

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Last night, I spent a little time talking to the mother of a young man who’s still hoping to secure a place in an NFL camp. She needed help breaking down exactly what the landscape looks like for a player who’s on the outside looking into the football world.

Today and tomorrow, rookie mini-camps start for 24 of 32 NFL teams (here are the teams that go to camp next weekend). Most of the players in these camps are rookies (with a  few street free agents sprinkled in here and there) in one of three categories: draftees, undrafted free agent signees (UDFAs) and tryout players. Most teams will bring in around 25-30 players between all three categories for their rookie mini-camps.

It’s important to understand the difference between these players. Draftees, in most cases, will not have signed contracts. Their agents will take care of that at some point in the coming weeks. Undrafted free agents, in all cases, do have contracts. Most sign a standard, no-frills, three-year deal with various signing bonuses (usually ranging between $15,000 and $500). In all cases, tryout players do not have contracts. They are competing for the right to sign an undrafted free agent contract. For that reason, tryout players do not count against a team’s 90-man roster. It’s not uncommon for teams to bring in 20 or more tryout players. What do they have to lose?

I should mention here that tryout players are essentially trying to win a lottery for which the prize is another lottery ticket. A lot of people don’t understand that tryout players are seen as the ultimate fringe players by scouts, utter longshots. These days, I see a lot of agents posting on Facebook how their clients are in the league. Well, no, they really aren’t.

In fact, the NFLPA requires all contract advisors to get at least one player on a 90-man roster (i.e., the offseason, when rosters are fat) in a three-year period, but tryout players do not count toward that total. So even if an agent works extremely hard to get a player on a roster – and many do – if he doesn’t earn a contract in his three days with the team, it’s as if the player never existed for the purposes of the NFLPA. So that’s an important differentiator.

Because some teams choose to have their rookie mini-camps the second weekend after the draft, tryout invitations are rather fluid, and it’s not uncommon to see players accept two tryout invitations. Why not? If he makes the team on the first tryout, he can let his agent deal with the other team. There’s certainly nothing barring a player from taking part in two tryouts.

While most UDFA deals are signed in the first hour or so after the draft, teams may take a week or more before they’re doing handing out tryout invitations. There’s also no set policy on how players get to the team for tryouts. I’ve heard that some teams will bring in a player for a tryout, but just as often, a team will bring in local players for tryouts so they can contain costs.

As you scan your favorite team’s site for more post-draft crumbs, hopefully this helps clear a few things up for you, especially if you have a son who’s still nursing NFL ambitions.

 

A Feel-Good Agent Story

04 Wednesday May 2016

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Today, I wanted to share a story that will be included in our newsletter for people taking the 2016 NFLPA agent exam. I passed it along because our newsletter series, which usually includes bracing honesty about the business, needed a little bit of light and encouragement. And it’s true, of course.

Thomas Sherzan got certified in 2014. Based in West Des Moines, Iowa, he doesn’t live in a football hotbed and he didn’t come into this game with stacks of contacts in the college and pro game. He came into the game like a lot of people – he has a passion for football and for helping people, and he felt he could do some good and maybe make a little money. These aren’t Thomas’ words, but having known him for two years, I think it’s a fair summation of who he is and what his goals are. My impression is that he recruited using our Profile Reports and reached out to scouts using our email template, but couldn’t get traction. That’s got a lot to do with where he’s located. There are just fewer opportunities for agents with fewer schools.

Then, on Feb. 9, I got an email from Givens Price, a defensive tackle that recently finished up at Nebraska. I get emails from draft hopefuls all the time. They hear from a buddy about our newsletter series on the draft process, or they may find us on Google, or they get referred from a teammate we’ve worked with, or whatever, and they send an email, asking for help in finding an agent. In this case, I usually locate whichever agent I work with that’s closest to the player and just forward the email along. I rarely give it any more thought than that. So I sent Givens to Thomas with the warning that there were no obligations and that he didn’t even have to acknowledge the young man, but Thomas did that, and Givens subsequently signed.

I really don’t know any more details than that. I didn’t really hear from Thomas on Givens (wasn’t even sure he signed with him) until Saturday night, when Thomas messaged me. “Neil, thanks for the Givens Price referral,” he texted. “He signed with me and tonight he signed as an UDFA with the Cardinals.” I was so stunned that I had to confirm that he was on contract, not a tryout (he assured me that he was). Keep in mind that, for the past 24 hours, my team of five former NFL scouts, from the dozen or so my subscribers regularly work with, had been coaching 15 agents on how to get their players onto a roster. It came as a complete shock, but it was also a feeling of euphoria. Getting to share the experience of getting a player on a 90-man roster with one of my clients is part of what makes my job a lot of fun.

Now, you may be thinking, who cares? The kid signed with an NFL team as a UDFA. They’re not even bringing him in as a DT (he’s going to be tried at tackle). So what?

Well, I pass this story along because succeeding in this business is a lot harder than it looks, and more expensive, too. The point is, it can happen for you, if you want to make a run at this business. All you have to do is know how to do it. We’re here to help you with that.

Draft Wk Interview: John Meehan of Platinum Football

28 Thursday Apr 2016

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Today, we talk to St. Louis-based John Meehan of Platinum Football. John gives us a different perspective because he’s one of the handful of folks that passed the NFLPA exam last summer (the passage rate was about half of what it used to be), so he’s in his first year as an agent. When you’re first-year, unless you’re related to a top draft pick, you have no clout and no credibility, especially when you’re independent and not affiliated with a big firm. That’s what makes John — and dozens of ITL clients like him — so impressive and admirable. To some degree, he’s making a leap of faith. That takes courage. And yet I think he’s going to end the weekend with at least one, and maybe two, players on a 90-man roster, which is a real accomplishment for a first-year, independent agent.

I’ll turn things over to John now. He discusses what’s happened in the month of April, his clients, and the lessons he’s learned.

“Basically I feel like the last few weeks have been interesting because I think I have some major players that are all small-school guys. (Wide receiver) Juwan Brescasin (who played in the College Gridiron Showcase) is the biggest guy I’m representing, and he’s from Northern Illinois. He didn’t have big numbers, but he’s from Canada, so it’s a little different.

“I’ve been talking to a lot of scouts about one of my players that is getting a lot of interest, Jacksonville State OH Troymaine Pope. It’s exciting because I’m talking to a lot of NFL teams. Interest has been growing since his pro day, and that’s exciting, but I can’t be too excited about the players getting interest when there are other (clients) that are similar but that going to CFL tryouts and trying to get as many looks as possible but not getting any bites. So it’s been pretty crazy, but I’m very happy about the guys getting love. But it’s really hard because I won’t be content until I know that everyone I’m working for is on a roster somewhere.

“I think the one thing as a new agent that has surprised me the most, and it shouldn’t because you’ll find it in any business, is that interest differs depending on different personalities. I’m not on a first-name basis with scouts, but some of them will call players and talk to them, but when I call them, they’ll never pick up the phone. Other scouts will call (me) and talk about their interest and they contact me before they talk to (the player). So it’s really different. I don’t think you can peg it to one team or another. Since the (College Gridiron Showcase), the first game I went to, I had a lot of skepticism about scouts. None wanted to talk. They just wanted to do their job and take off, but once your player performs, there are lots of scouts that are open and honest with you and not as pretentious as one may have expected.

“I try to hit every (scout) I can about my clients. There’s a fine line between being annoying and being persistent. I want to not go to sleep without having done something for all my clients that day. I’ll hit them up every once in a while so they know I’m still working on things. I would say when my players got interest after pro days — and all my guys performed to the best of their abilities — I try to call everyone first, and then some will text back, or call back. I always try to get them on the phone first because I think it’s the best way to develop a relationship. If I can’t get them on the phone, I’ll shoot a text, and the greatest number respond to texts. If that doesn’t work, I’ll gently email them. So I work my way down from calling down to emailing.

“From my first year, what I would take away the most, is that your player is essentially the bargaining chip. If (scouts) want your player, they’re gonna call. If they don’t, they won’t pick up the phone. Some scouts have been polite (but don’t talk much), and some have real interest. I got a call late Friday night from a scout who’s on the West Coast, and we talked about my client. He was traveling for pro days, and he was just driving, so we talked for a long time. I mean, it helps out on the trips to talk to somebody when you’re driving. But if they want your client badly enough, they’ll talk to you.

“It’s almost person to person who responds to email, and it depends on the relationship you have with the scout. In speaking with teams and scouts, I’ve been able to realize there’s one degree of separation between you and people most of the time. I’d say 20 percent, 30 percent of the people I email ask for more information. I’d say about two-thirds, you never hear back from. Me coming from the legal world, I mean, I’m not a magician. I can’t make teams be interested, but I give my clients the most opportunities to be seen and give them a stage as much as possible to do so. Interviews, who knows who will read them? But it’s about how many times can you be seen, because if you’re good enough, its’ all about how many eyes you can get on them. I try to personalize emails for the organization so they know I’m not sending the same email to every coach and scout in the NFL.

“I think being a first-year guy, not having been through the process on my own, teams that are interested will have contacted my client or myself this week. I’ve gotten texts from teams that say a kid is on their radar, and some that are texting about every meeting and every time the kid comes up. As it gets later and later in the draft, I plan on checking in with my teams. The last couple days, I’ve shot out at least a hundred emails or more. It’s kinda like, given the amount of effort I’ve given to contact people over the last few days, I’d hope we’d get some feedback. I’m just trying to find a point of contact before the draft, and if I don’t, I’ll try to reach out to teams and hope they respond later in the draft.

“I think the other interesting part is that I’m representing guys from NAIA to D1, and you have to give your clients a realistic perspective. Some are realistic and would be happy with CFL, but others are expecting to be drafted, and if they don’t have a UDFA deal by the end of the weekend, they’ll be really upset.”

Draft Week Interview: Brandon Smart of Smart Consulting

27 Wednesday Apr 2016

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This week, we’re talking to agents about their experiences this year as they prepare for this weekend’s draft. I think it gives an interesting window into the league from a different perspective. Today, we hear from Hendersonville, Tenn.-based Brandon Smart of Smart Consulting. Brandon, who was certified in the summer of ’14, is unique in that he has a background in high school and college football, so he has a number of connections and rare perspective on the business for a second-year agent.

I think Brandon gives a great account of what he’s learned in his brief career in NFL representation and what’s ahead for his clients and he this weekend.

Last year, I had a player who attended the combine, and I was really excited about it. I mean, it was my first year, and I had never done it before, so I started reaching out to teams, but there were no teams calling and reaching out to me. I didn’t know if that meant anything or not, so we waited around. Later, I had some priority free agent guys sign before my combine guy, and they even got signing bonuses. Finally, after the draft, I realized there was no interest in him, and we had to beg to get him a tryout.

This year has been very different. Several teams have flown Washington St. DT Destiny Vaeao in for workouts, and he’s had a Top 30 visit. Kansas State KR Morgan Burns has had multiple workouts and a Top 30 visit, and we’ve had several other clients who’ve gotten plenty of interest.

A lot of interest picked up right after their pro days so teams could make sure they could get things lined up. Even some of my guys that didn’t get interest immediately after their pro day, I’ve gotten calls on and I’m still getting calls on them. If teams are interested in your player, either a scouting assistant or some medical personnel will want records. Somebody would be calling at this point if they’re not going to be considered more than a camp body.

We have three guys that have late-round or priority free agent grades. Of course, one of them’s a defensive tackle, and this is a good defensive tackle class, so there needs to be a run on defensive tackles for him to be drafted, but I’m going by what teams are telling me. They’re expecting 16 defensive tackles and 3-4 defensive ends to go in the first two-and-a-half rounds, and there could be five that go in the first round. Once there’s a run, (teams) start picking them up. I also have probably the best kick returner in the nation (Burns). I’ve had three teams tell me if a team takes a KR, they’ll go after him, because he has elite speed and plenty of starts at corner. He’s had six or seven workouts. Green Bay brought him in on a visit, and I’ve had different scouts say he was a 4.33 on their clocks. Then there’s (Minnesota DE) Thieren Cockran, an edge player, and he’s long, 6-4 and 260, so if there’s a run on edge players, he could get drafted.

Last year, my approach was, OK, I’m (recruiting and) signing guys to get them into a rookie mini-camp because I need to build my name. So if I could get a guy in a rookie mini-camp, that gave me a connection with the team. (Those teams and those scouts) remember me this year. This year, I didn’t want anybody unless they were at a special position, and I was only gonna recruit (FBS players). Many Division II and Division I-AA players can be unrealistic, and you have to guide them. Most people (from small schools) say, ‘we’ve had 15 guys in the NFL.’ Well, that’s because (those schools) get all the ‘drop-down’ guys from bigger schools. . . Very few guys are late bloomers going from college to pro the way high school to college is. Very few guys fall through the cracks anymore. Some will say (EKU DE Noah) Spence was a I-AA player. No, he played at Ohio State. He didn’t sign with EKU right out of high school.

The big difference this year was really relying on my contacts from the year before. I had scouts that would say ‘I wouldn’t touch (a player).’ The player you’re recruiting might be a great college player, but when it comes to the NFL, size and measurables matter. You can’t make a living having short guys at a position and guys that are slow. You’re going to be spending a whole lot of time trying to get them into camp. This year, I said, ‘what am I hearing from scouts, and what am I hearing from people I built a relationship with, and what are they telling me?’ It doesn’t matter what I think. They’re signing checks and I’m not.

If I took risks (this year), it was on players that are highly athletic or very big for their position. I was not going to take a 6-2 guard again. In fact, I’ve got a guard that’s 6-5 this year. It’s really about building relationships and not being afraid to call scouts you have numbers on. They don’t want to talk on the phone. If they responded, it was always, ‘he’s late round, I’m just being honest,’ or ‘we may have interest down the road.’ At this point, they know they need information from me, but after the draft, they won’t respond to any of my calls. At this point they still need medical information. That’s how this year has been different from last year.

You can’t go into this business blind. It’s a different business model, different from everything else. While they’re in college, there’s not enough time for an agent to build a relationship with a player. You have so many colleges that won’t let you talk to a player, so you’re trying to build a relationship with a kid in three days (after the season).

If I was a computer engineering dept at a college and IBM and Microsoft came in and said, ‘we’re gonna be on your campus tomorrow, and we want to start interviewing your guys,’ if a college told them, ‘we’re not going to let them talk to you until after they graduate,’ everyone at the college would be fired. But colleges look at it that way (with their players). The reason why is, they don’t even know the rules, don’t understand them, and aren’t proactive. Players are going to talk to agents. Instead of being proactive, colleges don’t see it as important. But they sure will tweet it out if one of their players gets into an NFL camp. Then, it’s “I’m on y’all’s guys team.”

One thing I’ll say is, you can’t get through (the agent business) alone. I’ve called you over 50 times in the last year and a half. Either new agents need to find a mentor in this profession, or they need to be an ITL subscriber. Time is money. (Joining ITL) is the best decision I’ve ever made. Otherwise, (an agent’s) going to be out in three years.

 

Guest Columnist: Take Value Pts With a Grain of Salt

26 Tuesday Apr 2016

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Earlier this month, I had lunch with my former business partner, Troy, and posted here about it. He thinks a lot about the draft and closely follows the process as well as the prospects. For that reason, when he took issue with one of my posts last week, I asked him to develop his opinion so I could publish it here. He makes some great points.

I’ll turn it over to Troy.

So much is made of the NFL Draft value points chart created more than a quarter century ago by former Cowboys head coach Jimmy Johnson. It’s natural this time of year — especially with the recent blockbusters involving a bundle of picks for the No. 1 and 2 overall selections.

While a fun exercise in theory, my argument is that the chart is completely irrelevant for teams without a franchise QB for this simple reason: The league, more than ever, is comprised of “haves” and “have-nots.” Those with a clear-cut, long-term guy under center will be in the mix each year. And those without? Their only chance is that stars align for their team in a one-off season.

Therefore, instead of looking at a complex points chart, the have-nots should be doing whatever’s necessary to put themselves in position to get their long-term solution at QB because, long term, the bundle of draft picks (and “points”) you give up are irrelevant.

Looking back at its origin, the points system was useful for Johnson at the time. He was gift-wrapped Troy Aikman and soon acquired a boatload of picks from Minnesota in the Herschel Walker deal. So it made sense to use metrics to gain valuable assets to surround the future Hall of Fame QB and a pretty barren roster. I would even argue that the point system can be valuable today for teams such as Green Bay and Indianapolis that are trying to build talent around their franchise QB.

However, the major flaw in a rigid point system is that all the slotted picks are not created equal. For example, under the point chart, the No. 1 overall pick is worth 3,000 points, with No. 2 being 2,600, No. 3 at 2,200, and so on.

Look at recent history. In 2011 and 2012, the first picks were Cam Newton and Andrew Luck. In 2013-2014, they were Eric Fisher and Jadeveon Clowney. Anyone think those picks should be looked at equally, as they are by the points chart?

Fisher, Clowney and other non-QB top picks are nice prospects, but they are not winning you games week-in, week-out. QBs like Luck and Newton can single-handedly win games and keep their respective teams in the playoff mix every year for decade. How can you put a point total on that?

For example, if prior to the 2012 draft, Cleveland, which picked No. 3, would have offered Indianapolis five No. 1 draft picks to move up just two spots, advocates of the value points chart would have jumped all over the deal. Those who follow the chart would argue that five No. 1 draft choices would far outweigh getting that single pick.

However, since a true franchise QB was involved, I would argue that giving up those picks would still be a great bargain for the Browns. With Luck as its franchise QB, the Browns would have almost certainly made a couple of playoffs appearances—or at least been in the mix each of the past four years. It could then focus on building around its young signal-caller with a clear direction for the next decade.

And the Colts, taking what the Browns offered, could have then selected (as the Browns actually did with its next five No. 1 picks) Trent Richardson, Barkevious Mingo, Justin Gilbert, Johnny Manziel and Danny Shelton. Guess what? If that had happened, four years later the Colts would still have no idea what direction it was going and no chance to compete each of the last four seasons … much like the Browns today.

Moving forward to what we’ve seen in the past couple of weeks, I’ve heard so many ‘NFL insiders’ say “the Rams gave up way too much” or “the Eagles could wreck their franchise for years if this trade doesn’t work out.” It’s all complete hogwash.

Just take a look at the most recent ‘blockbuster’ trade from 2012, involving the Rams and Redskins. Washington essentially gave up the Nos. 6 and 39 overall picks in 2012, No. 22 in 2013 and No. 2 overall pick in 2014.

People said the Redskins “mortgaged their future” on the prospects of Robert Griffin III. Well, obviously, he didn’t work out in Washington, as four years later he’s in Cleveland. Yet, since the trade, the Redskins have won the NFC East twice in the past four seasons—once with RGIII and once with Kurt Cousins— yet remain a have-not in the bigger picture in terms of being a real Super Bowl threat. The Redskins are essentially in the same boat they were before the trade.

On the flip side, we heard so much about how the Rams gouged the Redskins and setting themselves up as real contenders because of the haul of picks in the deal. Yet, after it was all said and done, the players they took with the Redskins’ picks were DT Michael Brockers, DC Janoris Jenkins, OH Isaiah Pead, OG Rokevious Watkins, IB Alec Ogletree, WO Stedman Bailey, OH Zac Stacy and OT Greg Robinson. And exactly how many wins have those guys contributed to over the past four years? Very few. The Rams basically remain in the same position they were before the blockbuster. A have-not. Both teams are still searching for that guy.

So, let’s bring the discussion back to last week’s deal between the Browns and Eagles. Who is the likely winner and loser?

To me, at least Philadelphia has the potential to be the big winner. Why? Because it put itself in a position to get a potential franchise QB and be a “have” franchise for a decade. Conversely, the Browns might very well build up quite a talented roster but it will remain a “have-not” without that special guy taking snaps.

Who knows if Jared Goff or Carson Wentz will be the man for his respective team? But I’ll always applaud a team that doesn’t have a franchise QB trying everything in its power to acquire one.

In a nutshell, I’m not saying acquiring a bunch of picks cannot be valuable assets. What I am saying is that in today’s NFL, when a potential franchise QB is involved, a ‘bunch of guys’ does not equal ‘The Guy.’

Draft Week Interview: Tyler Glass of G3 Sports

25 Monday Apr 2016

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This week, I’m trying to interview newer agents because I find their experiences more relevant for people trying to break into the football business (and because this blog is dedicated to that audience). Today, I spoke to Tyler Glass of G3 Sports. Tyler is based in Red Bank, N.J., and is the son of an established NBA agent. To his credit, Tyler has tried something new, and it looks like he’s making some headway.

Tyler is also interesting because he took on a player — UTEP TE Cedrick Lang — who played one year of college football in a remote location (El Paso, Texas). In the interest of full disclosure, I worked with Cedrick’s parents a bit during the early stages of the pre-draft process, so I have a bit of a rooting interest here. At any rate, here’s Tyler.

“I’m kind of excited this week. It’s been interesting, very interesting.

“I’ve got four kids for this draft. They are Rutgers OH Paul James, Georgia St. QB Nick Arbuckle and Cedrick, and then DE Blake Serpa out of CMU, and I’ve heard from a lot of teams on all of them. What that means, I’m not 100 percent sure. Some of these guys, the interest is stronger than others, but you don’t really know what’s gonna happen. You don’t have a crystal ball. I’ve been through this so many times in the NBA; it’s like the wild west. Unless you have a clear (early-round pick), it’s kind of (uncertain).

“It’s a lot different from last year. Last year, I only had a couple months to recruit. None of them made it, but they all knew (they wouldn’t), and they were fantastic kids. I’ve learned a lot since last year.

“On Cedrick, the experience has been a lot of fun. I’ve been in the NBA for 10 years and my dad has been in it for 34 years, but I’ve transitioned into football. To carry Ced into that, it’s been the perfect fit. From my view, it’s been great. With the training, it matters where you are and who believes in the kid. Sometimes (the training) doesn’t really matter, but with Ced, it mattered. He had to learn things he’d never learned before.

“I sat down with Cedrick when I was recruiting him, and I said, ‘the NFL is 32 teams, but your NFL is not 32. It’s maybe four or five or six teams. We’ll need someone with the vision I had when I signed him.’ They need to know it’s not where he is right now, but where he can be down the road. Some teams don’t want to see that vision but other teams do, and those are the teams that are fun and those are the ones I like. It’s been fun and interesting. I’ve been so proud of him and he’s worked so hard. He’s the best kid I’ve ever had. He deserves it.

“His all-star game, the College Gridiron Showcase, is where he opened some eyes. Some teams saw him as an offensive tackle, and some as a tight end. The majority saw him as a tight end. I can’t count how many phone calls or emails I’ve sent reaching out to teams, but some of these guys in the NFL are really smart, and they saw him and bought in at the all-star game, and some kinda bought in when he started at UTEP. Some have been right on my page from Day 1. Some I’ve had to push along the way, and others haven’t had the same vision.

“Has half the league showed interest? I’d say more than half, but where that level of interest is, it could be in any type of range. That’s what I feel comfortable saying at this point.

“I don’t want to say he doesn’t care about whether or not he gets drafted, but obviously, if he gets drafted, it’s an amazing thing in the way that he gets there or got there. It’s a really unique story. He just wants to get in a facility and get going. That’s his mentality. He just wants to work. He wants to know, when am I getting there? When am I going to work? That’s how it’s been since his first day training in New Jersey. He’s not an easy guy to kick down. He just keeps fighting.

“I haven’t discussed (how the college basketball player as tight end prospect phenomenon) has specifically helped him, but I think it has. I think this has become a nice little trend in the league. I think, globally, basketball players are the best athletes in the world. Ced wasn’t even brought in to be a tight end, but his hands were so good that it was an automatic that he’d do that. His background automatically has gotten people to take a second look or a first look, whatever that might be.

“Catching a football, we’ve never had a concern with that. He’s been catching basketballs, which are rounder and bigger, so it’s never been a concern. I wouldn’t say anything in particular has been difficult, but everything that he’s learning is fresh and new. What’s been impressive is that it doesn’t take him long to learn. He hasn’t really experienced it, so it’s so raw, but once it goes in, as long as the right people are teaching it, it goes in. He’s so coachable. I’ve enjoyed working for him. It’s been a lot of fun, I gotta be honest.”

 

Viewing the Eagles-Browns Deal Using Value Points

22 Friday Apr 2016

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Here’s an interesting way to look at the trade the Eagles’ made with the Browns this week that you maybe haven’t seen in the media.

This time of year, especially when draft trades are made, you hear about the value points chart made by the Cowboys in the Jimmy Johnson years. However, you rarely see trades viewed through this prism, so let’s do that with the Eagles deal.

Let’s start with the Eagles. They get the No. 2 pick in the draft (2,600 points according to the chart) plus a fourth-rounder in ’17. More on that later.

The Browns got the No. 8 pick in the draft plus the No. 77 pick (a third-rounder) and the No. 100 pick (fourth round). According to the chart, that’s 1,605 points (1,400 points, 205 points and 100 points). They also get a first-rounder in ’17 and a second-rounder in ’18. So before we count the future picks, the Browns are ‘down’ about a thousand points.

Now let’s look to the future. We’ll put the best spin on things for the Eagles and say that the Browns pick first in 2017. We’ll also say the Eagles, loaded for bear with three talented passers and newly Chip-free, win the Super Bowl in ’17 and ’18. That means the Browns’ fourth-rounder is worth 112 points (give or take a few points based on the number of compensatory picks next year and a few other factors) and the last picks in the first round in ’17 and second round in ’18 are worth 590 and 270 points, respectively. If all these things happen — the Browns are the worst team in football in ’16 and the Eagles win consecutive Super Bowls — the Eagles win via the points total, but just barely at 2700-2565.

For what it’s worth, this is unlikely to happen, which means the Browns are likely to win the points total. Still, it’s close.

Of course, the question to ask is, do teams actually use this chart? I get different answers from scouts, but rarely hear chatter about it during draft week. I think most teams don’t total up the points because the media doesn’t — you will probably not read an analysis like this anywhere else on the Web — and therefore, teams don’t care. They don’t have to cover themselves by making the points work.

Anyway, just a little fun with numbers to kick off the less-than-one-week countdown to draft day. Have a great weekend.

’16 Draft Story: Business Arena’s Travis Martz on UNC-Central’s Ryan Smith

19 Tuesday Apr 2016

Posted by in Agents

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We’re nine days out from the NFL draft, and with that in mind, I thought I’d reach out to some of my friends in the agent community to talk about the draft stories for some of their better clients. Today, I reached out to Annapolis, Md.-based Travis Martz of Business Arena.

Travis reps North Carolina Central DC Ryan Smith, who’s one of the hottest small-school corners in the ’16 draft. He’s expected to go in the fourth- or fifth-round range after a sterling combine followed by a great pro day. This is all taking place despite the fact Ryan didn’t play in an all-star game and wasn’t highly regarded coming out of high school. In fact, he wasn’t a guy who generated much buzz at all going into the season.

Travis picks up the story right from where he started the recruiting process up until today, shortly before draft day.

“Ryan was suggested to me by a scout, and Ryan happened to live about an hour away from me. Essentially, the conversation (with the scout) was, ‘there’s a kid in your backyard who’s buzzing, and who comes from a good family, and you should talk to him.’ I got his number through his high school coaches, and they connected us that way. So I went down and met with him and his family, and had a great meeting. His parents were very professional.

“So I didn’t know what I had until I started calling teams, and then I found out Ryan was a guy that was pretty widely known with scouts, though media wasn’t (clued in), as expected. Scouts were buzzing pretty hard. So I was able to sign him.

“He didn’t have any postseason. His season was done in late November, so through the month of December, I really just pressed Ryan on keeping his conditioning so that he would be ready to play in an all-star game. He didn’t play in any games — he was a wait-list kid for the Senior Bowll, and it got to be early January with no invites, so it was Senior Bowl or bust. It didn’t concern me that he didn’t play, given that some of those games are political and invites go out way earlier than they should. So what we did was, I prepped Ryan that month of December about keeping his conditioning, and not trying to be a track star way too early. We were going to let the experts determine when to peak.

“So I sent him to Fit Speed Athletic Performance in Weston, Fla., back in January, and he got most of his draft prep there. He also worked on his nutrition and training and did a lot of position work and board work, and also some simulated coaching interviews, and he really enjoyed his time down there.

“At the combine, we knew he would perform well if he didn’t get hurt. He turned a lot of heads, and we knew that would happen. It wasn’t a surprise to us going into the combine.

“Immediately after the combine, I received a few text messages from teams because the (40 times) they had, as far as the timing for the electronic radar, was off. Most teams had a much faster time on Ryan, and so I got a lot of calls and texts right afterwards saying, ‘good training, the guy really is a definite third- or fourth-round lock. The film looked good, but to get that confirmation (helped). From then on, it’s been a whirlwind.

“At the combine, I had him meet with a defensive backs coach at the Omni, and he said, ‘here’s the deal with the interviews: don’t try to talk in eloquent prose. If you got in trouble at school, just tell them you got in trouble at school. Just be honest, that’s all the teams care about.’ So that was a good, comforting conversation.

“At the combine, the only team that did an interview was the Colts, which I thought was a little surprise. They were the only team to give him an official interview.

“As soon as the combine ended, the Top 30 visits hit like crazy. He’s been on six Top 30 visits and he’s gone to two local pro days (Ravens and Redskins), including Washington today. He’s not working out in Washington, just talking to executives, and he’s done working out until the draft. For his last (Top 30 visit), he goes out to see the Rams, and he’s also had five or six workouts with position coaches, with DB coaches who either went to his pro day or came to Washington, D.C. Arizona and Indy both worked him out here at his high school. So from that, that’s been sort of the routine.

“After the combine, he came back to D.C. and took some time off. Then we worked on his conditioning, then had him come back down to UNC-Central for pro day. He had a whirlwind pro day, and a couple teams came back to Durham to see Ryan after that specifically. So he was down there 4-5 days after pro day, then back to DC for a whirlwind Top 30 tour, and we’re done after tomorrow. For the most part, there’s nothing else to be done. All the evidence has been presented. The ‘judges’ in those 32 rooms will make their decisions. He’s done everything he’s been expected to do, everything he’s been asked.”

Adding It All Up

18 Monday Apr 2016

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My friend Justin VanFulpen of FootballNextLevel created an interesting list today that you should check out. It’s a list I’ve been wanting to compile for some time, but haven’t ever gotten around to. You can check it out here. Basically, Justin ran down the number of players, by position, that have been drafted over the last five years. Though none of the totals come as a shock, it’s still a fascinating feature and I encourage you to check it out.

By the way, first a shameless plug: Justin and I collaborate on a weekly podcast on the football business. You can check that out here.

Anyway, it’s very interesting how many agents describe their clients as “late-rounders.” The draft is a funny thing, and you never know what’s going to happen on draft day. I get it. However, on average, three fullbacks are drafted per year. So how is it that every agent who reps a fullback claims his guy is a ‘late-rounder.’ The average number of kickers and punters drafted annually — combined! — is about three. Yet any time someone tweets about a punter/kicker, he’s almost always described as a late-round prospect. Well, unless he’s the top-rated guy at his position, he ain’t getting drafted.

This is one of the fundamental problems I have with draft coverage. Look, it’s entertainment, and trying to really deconstruct such things is like trying to fact-check an article from People magazine. Still, when you look at the number of late-round and undrafted players that make a real impact on the NFL, it’s substantial. So why doesn’t anyone take a real look at the number of players that can logically be expected to get a UDFA deal? It’s something I’ve always wondered, and it’s a number that I think is relevant as agents hope against hope that their clients will get drafted, or at least signed, in a week and a half.

Here’s an idea: let’s use Justin’s numbers to guess as to how many players per position will even get UDFA deals. If we total up the number of players by position are drafted, we get 254.8 (call it 255) over 15 positions. Breaking it down by percentage of draftees, here’s what it looks like QBs 4.3 percent; running backs, 8.2 percent; fullbacks, 1.2 percent; wide receivers, 12.3 percent; tight ends, 5.3 percent; tackles, 8.5 percent; guards, 6.4 percent; centers, 2.4 percent; defensive ends, 9.6 percent; defensive tackles, 7.6 percent; linebackers, 12.8 percent; cornerbacks, 12.9 percent; safeties, 7.1 percent; kickers, .7 percent; and punters, .5 percent.

Each team brings in, on average, about 10 undrafted free agents, so with 32 teams, that’s about 320 guys signed after the draft. Applying those percentages to each position, the number of non-draftees signed after draft, by position, is 14 quarterbacks (plus 11 drafted means about 25 on contract); 26 running backs (plus 21 drafted means about 47 on contract); four fullbacks (plus 3, or 7 on contract); 39 wide receivers (plus 31, 70 on contract); 17 tight ends (30); 27 tackles (49); 21 guards (37); eight centers (14); 31 defensive ends (55); 24 defensive tackles (44); 41 linebackers (74); 41 cornerbacks (74); 23 safeties (41); two kickers (4) and two punters (3).

Now, is there a place where you can truly find the top, say, 41 safeties available in the NFL draft? No, not really. The industry uses NFLDraftScout.com, and while those guys do a great job, they’re far from infallible. There are just too many schools, too many players, too many NFL teams and too many variables.

Bottom line, there is a finite number of players that can even be called possibilities as UDFAs. Keep this in mind as you hear the various players from smaller schools and less popular positions called “late-round or camp possibilities.”

 

 

How The Draft Works: My Take

15 Friday Apr 2016

Posted by in ITL

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On Wednesday, I had lunch with an old friend. Actually, he’s more than an old friend; he’s a former business partner. In fact, if it weren’t for this friend, Troy, there’s no way I’d be in the football business. We started a small print draft publication, Lone Star Football, in the late 90s, and to show you how long-ago-and-far-away it was, we didn’t even have a website. Anyway, though it never took off, from its ashes sprung Inside the League. I wouldn’t have had the guts to start ITL if it weren’t for Lone Star Football, so for that, I’ll always tip my cap to Troy.

Anyway, we try to have lunch once a year at a Houston-area restaurant, and conversation always turns to the draft. In the course of Wednesday’s conversation, I told him that I had started ITL with the intention of learning exactly how and why teams drafted the way they do. Fourteen years later, I’m far from accomplishing that goal. However, there are three things I’ve learned. Or at least think I’ve learned. Here they are:

  • Most teams see the first four rounds as the time they have to take players they love and reasonably expect to start in their first year-and-a-half of play. These guys have to make the team and excel. The first four rounds are, for the most part, a very risk-averse time for most teams, so of the 120-150 players they rate as draftable, the first four picks will most certainly come from this group.
  • After the first four rounds, it’s lottery time. That’s when teams are mostly going to do one of two things. They’re either going to take a guy they thought was a sure Top-120 guy (even though they may wonder why he’s fallen so far) or they’re going to take a guy whose athleticism they’ve fallen in love with despite his lack of football experience, or acumen, or both. This is especially true of rounds 6 and 7. This tends to be where you see some real workout warriors picked. The last three picks are seen as expendable, for the most part. Why? Simple. It’s because no GM ever got fired because of the guy he picked, or didn’t pick, in the fifth round.
  • Teams are very, very, very sensitive to what other teams think. By now, you’ve probably seen the text Texans scout Rob Kisiel accidentally sent. Though it’s gotten way more play than it deserves – hasn’t everyone sent a misplaced text by now? – the substance of the text is similar to what most scouts send, i.e., brief, polite conversation followed by inquiries into who else has expressed interest. If you read Thursday’s post on our blog, you know several teams reached out to Texas Tech speed demon Jakeem Grant over the last month, wanting to know who else was reaching out to him. Before I got into this business, I thought all NFL teams intuitively knew the players inside and out, regardless of what others thought, and didn’t really care about other teams’ favorites. Having been doing this for almost two decades now, I know that isn’t the case.