Notes after 1st NFL weekend

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Here are several random thoughts rattling through my head after the first big weekend of the NFL and college season.

  • If the scouts I talk to are right, Stanford will be hit hard by early exits in January. I’m told Cardinal WR Devon Carjuste, CB Alex Carter and OT Andrus Peat are all locks to join the draft early. Of course, if the team can’t get off the mat after last weekend’s setback and Coach David Shaw’s troops have a disappointing season, maybe some of them reconsider. It’s early, of course. To check out the others we listed, check out today’s report on ITL.
  • So I watched the Saints’ upset loss to Atlanta yesterday, and after seeing QB Matt Ryan play without any interruptions by the vaunted Saints DL, I wondered how do you project a player’s success at handling a big contract? I ask this because the Saints’ last week before the Falcons game was almost a days-long party for DE Junior Galette, who came from very humble beginnings before being compensated quite nicely by the Saints. He had a great 2013 season, but will a young man who entered the league as an undrafted free agent be able to focus on getting better after having so many financial dreams come true? The NFL does all manner of psychological tests on players as they enter the league via the draft, but I’m not aware of such a battery for players as they weigh a star’s ability to deal with success. It was just one game, but Galette, DE Cameron Jordan and the rest of the team’s DL were supposed to zoom into the backfield like a hot knife through butter. It didn’t happen. Oh by the way: Jordan’s contract is up after this season.
  • I’m always interested in looking at the makeup of the league after rosters are set (including practice squads, but kickers and punters omitted). Here’s the breakdown by position:
Position Total Percent
OL 499 19.58399
LB 334 13.10832
WR 304 11.93093
CB 268 10.51805
DE 242 9.497645
RB 223 8.751962
S 206 8.084772
DT 197 7.731554
TE 160 6.279435
QB 115 4.513344
  • Maybe there aren’t many conclusions you can draw from such a grid, but here’s what it means to me:
  1. Teams aren’t doing as much development of passers on practice squads, maybe because QBs are so expensive that they can only afford to carry two.
  2. Even though offensive linemen aren’t the guys you normally carry for special teams purposes, there are still more than 100 more OL than any other position. And even though teams use 5-6 defensive linemen in goal line packages, there are still 60 more OL than DL (499 vs. 439) in the league. So if you’re a big, heavy guy with potential, you’ve got an excellent chance to make a practice squad.
  3. Tight end has become a glamor position, but that doesn’t mean there are just stacks and stacks of big, strong men that can also run. Teams may WANT a Graham/Gates/Gronkowski, but they aren’t necessarily finding them.

 

 

Friday flurry

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If you’re an agent, you’ve probably been fielding quite a few calls the last few days. You’ve probably heard a lot of stories, too, tales of woe designed to get you fired up about the chances of a player who could be the Kurt Warner of the FXFL.

This is part of the business. Typically, phones light up with cold-calling players in December and January, but there’s a new wave this year due to the upstart FXFL, which aims to be a developmental league for the NFL. That means every kid who got cut last weekend, along with virtually every other young man who aspired to be in the league the last 2-3 years, is running down the list of certified agents on the NFLPA website and making calls.

When most agents enter the business, they have very little understanding of what it means to have your name associated with arguably the hottest brand in professional sports. Agents are seen by players as the gatekeepers to the NFL, as well as the guys who are willing to drop lots of money to get a player into the league. These are both misconceptions, but try telling that to players who are looking for any kind of edge.

They also might not realize that their phone numbers are listed and easily accessible by anyone willing to register on the NFLPA website. It’s a free registration, and anyone with an email address can have at it. At least it’s not the CFL; up north, the CFLPA lists agents’ phone numbers AND email addresses. It just makes the flood of players seeking help even worse.

If they aren’t careful, many contract advisors fall for the stories players tell them, and might even go to bat with the FXFL trying to get a spot on a roster. In truly desperate times, that agent might even buy the kid a plane ticket to get him to the team. The smart ones, however, recognize that players ‘on the street’ right now are there for a reason (see Thursday’s post), and remain very circumspect about how they spend not just their money, but their time.

Parental guidance

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This morning, I read an email from the parent of a player who was part of the 2013 draft class. This player was an average draft prospect; he participated in an all-star game, but not a top-rated game such as the Senior Bowl or Shrine Game. He played at a big-name, high-gloss, nationally ranked program, but wasn’t a four-year starter and wasn’t highly decorated. Despite this solid-but-not-glowing resume, his parent was decrying the NFL for snubbing him and trashed the FXFL, the upstart league that kicks off this fall and hopes to become a developmental league for the NFL.

This afternoon, I was talking to an agent who’s also a friend; he’s been an ITL client for years. We were discussing a member of the 2014 draft class who had beaten the odds and signed with a major agency despite meager long-term NFL prospects. My friend said his agency had taken a run at the player, but pulled off early because his parents saw him as The Second Coming, and had been dismissive toward most agents during recruiting in his senior year. He wound up going late in this spring’s draft.

On Wednesday, I read an email from an agent who’s a longtime client. He signed a player as part of the ’14 draft class from a small-time FBS school with a mediocre record during his career. This player only started one season and recorded minimal stats his senior year, but he tested out of sight at his school’s pro day, and on the strength of his 40 time, landed a camp invite this summer before getting cut last week. This agent, who’s very conscientious, led off his email with the statement, “If I don’t get him a workout, his father will blame me for the rest of his life.”

So here’s the common thread to these three stories, which aren’t uncommon this time of year: unrealistic parents. If you’re the parent of a college athlete who entertains dreams of an NFL career, please read and re-read the following paragraphs.

The NFL is not a league for good players. It’s a league for great players. The league also offers no reward for starting four years in college; or for being a scholarship player at a big-name school; or because a player’s parent is an ex-NFL great.

If your son is ‘on the street’ right now, i.e., not on the 53-man roster OR the (newly expanded this year) practice squad, it’s because he’s not good enough, and he has more work to do. Don’t take this personally, but also, don’t dismiss this. If he’s truly interested in playing in the NFL, he needs to find a place where he can get better. Now.

I know that, for parents, it’s very frustrating to see a son miss out on opportunities, given that he’s always enjoyed success on the gridiron. However, if you’re truly interested in helping him get to the NFL, swallow your pride and take a good look around, and acknowledge that he’s got a long uphill battle if he’s not in the league. His failure to make it is not due to his agent, or a coach, or a league that’s unresponsive. It’s simply because he’s not good enough (yet). Do what you can to help him improve his game. Don’t blame someone else.

WSW: My two big personnel mistakes

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We’ve spent this week, and a little last week, discussing how players slide through the draft or otherwise get overlooked by NFL teams. It’s probably a good time for me to tell my two stories about the times I was guilty of exactly the same thing.

In both cases, the stories involve running backs. All I can say in my defense is that running backs are harder to evaluate than one might think, and there’s plenty of evidence of that around the league. That said, both were just plain ‘ol mistakes, and I have to own them.

  • The first one I missed was in late December of 2006, when I was working with a game in Houston called the Inta Juice North-South All-Star Classic. I was a volunteer helping populate the rosters, and this was in the early days of ITL. Our game was in mid-January, and we thought we had a pretty complete roster; at the time I didn’t realize how much turnover there is in the last two weeks before a game, when players’ commitments start to waiver and some agents get cold feet realizing this is their last chance to pull a kid if they get a better offer. Anyway, we got a call from an agent I didn’t know plugging a kid from the University of Illinois. I demurred. At the time, I had heard of Pierre Thomas, but didn’t know much about him. We were excited about our roster of rushers that included future NFL legends Alvin Banks (JMU), Cory Anderson (Tennessee), Germaine Race (Pittsburg St.), Quinton Smith (Rice) and Abdulan Kuuan (Grambling). Pierre went on to become an integral part of one of the most explosive offenses in the league and helped his team — my favorite team, no less — win a Super Bowl.
  • The second one I missed was a year later, in early January of 2007, when I was Executive Director of the 2008 Hula Bowl. I got a call from Joel Turner of North Myrtle Beach, SC-based Turner Sports; Joel is one of the true wizards of finding under-the-radar NFL talent. He was pitching a rusher from Coastal Carolina that he had just signed. Joel always calls late in the process to promote players because, unlike a lot of agents, he doesn’t rush to get a kid into a game so the kid can turn around and hire another representative. This time I was no volunteer, so I had no one else to blame for passing on Mike Tolbert, who is now with the Panthers after a successful early career with the Chargers. I guess Tolbert profiled as a fullback (we already had two) and came from a barely established school, so it was easier to stick with the guys we had, like Ohio’s Kalvin McRae, Oregon State’s Yvenson Benard and Minnesota’s Amir Pinnix. Oh well. At least we got Chadron State’s Danny Woodhead right, and another running back, Toledo’s Jalen Parmalee, is still active.

There are probably dozens of other players I was offered in my days running games but turned down. However, these are the ones I still remember like it was yesterday. But hey, as I’ve said many times in this space, no one bats 1.000 and this is an inexact science.

Beating the odds

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There are always dozens of stories that come out of cutdown weekend, which was Labor Day weekend in the NFL. There’s one that has a happy ending that also illustrates a couple factors you usually see in players that make teams despite long odds.

Browns defensive back Robert Nelson made the 53 (not the practice squad) in Cleveland this year despite not being drafted. That’s rare, but not crazy. However, what IS crazy is that he made the team only after arriving on a tryout basis the week after the draft. In other words, he arrived at camp without even having signed a contract as an undrafted free agent. He was in town with 20 other players (16 from FBS schools) competing for one contract, and he made it.

Here’s what I find interesting:

  • The percentage of undrafted free agents who make rosters is usually pegged at about eight percent. I don’t know of anyone who’s ever figured the percentage of tryout players who actually make rosters, but I’d guess it would be under one percent. Nelson got the job despite competing with 12 other undrafted free agents in camp with the Browns AFTER competing with 20 just to get a UDFA deal; he was a true long shot. In essence, he made the team twice despite going undrafted.
  • One reason the Browns may have been able to slide him in on a tryout basis is that he plays in the west. Yes, the Pac-12 is a big-time conference, but there are just fewer scouts trolling the western states. It’s much easier to send scouts around to see dozens of schools in the east, where population is denser. Sleepers are rare, but they’re more common in the west.
  • Even with Nelson’s obvious ability, he probably wouldn’t have gotten a Browns invite but for two factors that were primarily coincidental (both are mentioned in the above linked article). One, he had the game of this life on the day the Browns were scouting Oregon State WR Brandin Cooks, a player they liked quite a bit. Two, one of the Browns coaches, Jeff Hafley, had a connection to Arizona State, most likely due to someone he had worked with along the line.

We always hear of players who beat the odds, who wind up making teams despite having very little chance of doing so. There are always interesting facets to each of these players’ stories. I hope this story just goes to show the capricious way things work out in the NFL these days. Even with scouting techniques incredibly advances and armies of evaluators out there breaking down players, there are still those that slip through the cracks.

 

Busy weekend

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If you’re in pro football, and especially personnel, there is no time for hot dogs and relaxing by the pool this weekend. In fact, Labor Day weekend is one of the busiest weekends of the year in the NFL from every side.

  • If you’re a college scout, this was the first big weekend of college football. All 32 teams took their college scouts, who had spent camp evaluating their own players as well as taking a peek at other teams’ personnel for practice squad purposes, and sent them to schools to do what they’re paid (mostly) to do.
  • If you’re a pro scout, you spent this weekend sifting through the 600-plus cuts in the league, figuring out who might work for your team’s 53 (for example, the Saints cut both placekickers they had in camp) and racing to contact their agents. You’re also working with the coaches to assemble your practice squad.
  • If you’re an agent, you’ve probably got at least one client (and maybe several) who got cut Friday or Saturday, and is looking for a new opportunity. Unfortunately, those opportunities are few and far between after a summer of evaluating talent. Most teams are playing a pat hand as they roll into Week 1.
  • If you work with the upstart FXFL, a first-year football league with four teams, you’re poring over the cuts list. As you do, you’re taking phone calls from agents marketing their players to you, while you’re trying to figure out which players are deserving of a tryout invite. It’s head-spinning work.
  • If you’re a CFL team, you’re working with the scouts you sent to NFL camps this summer to review players that may be able to help immediately. It’s a little trickier for CFL scouts, as they have to make sure the players don’t have any outstanding legal issues that may prevent them from going north. They also have to make sure the player has a passport, which isn’t a given.

This is a very cursory look at things, but for people who are considering a life in the football profession, it’s food for thought. People in the world of football don’t just work weekends; they work holidays, nights, and every other time most people are just sitting back and enjoying the game.

Last thoughts with Joe

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I wanted to wrap the week with a few last thoughts from former Jets West Coast area scout Joe Bommarito that didn’t fit neatly into one topic.

  • We all know height, weight and 40 are critical for players seeking NFL careers, and of course, production on the field. However, three things (in order) that scouts also look for are “good character people, good work habits, and smart guys who can learn.”

I think not enough is said about a player’s ability to process the volume of information that goes into a modern NFL playbook, but it’s a thing former Dolphins scout Mike Murphy also referenced last week. I remember a SWAC running back that a client represented a couple years ago. This player had led the SWAC, no slouch among FBS conferences, in rushing, and could catch the ball, as well. However, he was snubbed in the draft as well as after the draft, and had to settle for a tryout. Once he arrived with the team, he was immediately intimidated by the playbook and didn’t last long. The ability to turn diagrams and terminology into instant comprehension is critical.

  • Even in today’s hyper-media era, Joe said that doesn’t see the media as having a major impact on the draft process, simply because teams spend so much money and time on evaluation. “Scouts are focused every day on evaluating players at school visits, watching tape, going to practice, talking to coaches and staff, and interviewing players,” he said. “The scout is paid to form his own opinion on players.”

Interesting take. Scouts I’ve talked to are all over the map on this question. Some say their bosses are so sensitive to criticism that media influence creeps into the process. Others, like Joe, claim it’s much easier for decision-makers to focus on what a team’s evaluators have provided.

  • Speaking of the media, Joe said that nothing that happens from January to April has as much impact on a player’s draft value as what he did in-season. “Each game that he plays is like an interview,” Joe said. “He has ten of them, plus any bowl games. The all-star games, combine, and pro days are all additional parts to a puzzle that at the end will show you what a player really is.”

This is something I’ve always wrestled with as draft gurus constantly claim that players have improved their ‘stock’ at an all-star game, the combine or his pro day. Fortunes definitely improve for some in the spring, but probably not as drastically as fans are led to believe.

Breaking into the league

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Today, I thought we’d talk about practical steps for getting into the league from this week’s guest contributor, former Jets West Coast scout Joe Bommarito. When I asked him how someone could increase his chances of becoming an NFL scout, his thoughts echoed those I’ve heard before.

“If I met a young person who wanted to be a scout I would advise them to contact their local NFL team and volunteer to work in their personnel department,” he said. “Also, contact local colleges and volunteer to work in their scouting department. Then make friends with everyone involved in the organization, because you never know who is going to advance into a position where they can make hiring decisions.”

As we’ve discussed already this week, Joe made friends with Herman Edwards during their time around Monterey Peninsula College, and it led directly to more than a decade as a scout.

He also shed light on how to ‘make friends’ with scouts, or anyone else in the league. Though he was speaking specifically about how agents could build bridges to scouts, his advice would work for nearly anyone.

“Go to workouts, introduce (yourself) to scouts, hand out business cards, get their phone (numbers) and email contact information,” he said. “Then . . . follow up with a note regarding “pleased to meet you,” etc. Ask their opinions on prospective players, etc. (It’s) also important to touch base with scouts at (the) Senior Bowl (and) Combine (and) work on building relationships.”

Obviously, going to all-star games or flying to Indianapolis to hang around the combine might be tough for students or young professionals looking to break into player evaluation, but no matter where you live, there’s probably one time each March that scouts — at least a handful — will come to your state. During pro days in the spring (most are in March, but some are in early April), scouts are evaluating schools at every state in the country. Finding out when a school’s pro day is (NFL.com tracks this and it’s usually readily available) and going there that day will get you around scouts. Making contact with them and expressing an interest in the business might be a difference-maker if player evaluation is your interest.

I’d make one more point. If you have a scout’s mailing address, write a handwritten note of thanks for a scout’s time. This would work if you’re an agent trying to make relationships or an aspiring scout looking to make contacts. I know it seems old-fashioned, but a lot of the scouts who have seniority and ‘sway’ within a department are pretty old-fashioned themselves. I’ve heard others talk of the value of a note. In other words, if you’ve got some old stationery around somewhere, it may come in handy.

WSW: Nothing shocking about Shockey

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We’ll depart from our conversation with former Jets scout Joe Bommarito today to tell a story from longtime 49ers scout Oscar Lofton, who covered the West Coast for the team from the mid-90s until 2007.

In 2002, the Niners were coming off a 12-4 season that ended in the wildcard round against Green Bay. The team was stocked with offensive stars, including WO Terrell Owens, QB Jeff Garcia and RB Garrison Hearst. The team also had a solid offensive line as well, and started Eric Johnson, primarily a pass-catcher, at tight end.

That year, they chose No. 27 in the first round, selecting cornerback Mike Rumph. However, in an effort to vet all the players in the draft, they interviewed Miami (Fla.) TE Jeremy Shockey at the combine. Oscar was part of the team that talked to him. He said Shockey didn’t pull any punches during his interview session.

“I did the Shockey kid when he was coming out, and I said, he came in and he said, ‘I’m gonna be the best in the league, and I’m gonna dominate,’ and all this stuff, and I’m saying to myself, he’s a little too cocky for me. I need to get our tight ends coach to talk to him.

“He was really kind of full of himself, and kind of rubbed me the wrong way, so I knew that we needed to get probably (49ers team psychiatrist Dr. Harry) Edwards to talk to him, too, and find out psychologically. Doc would sit in on our interviews and everything, and he was pretty good about drawing conclusions. And I said, we need to spend some more time with him, and we did.”

That’s Oscar’s polite way of saying he was a real jerk.

I find it interesting that Shockey didn’t try to take anything off his fastball for the purposes of making an impression with what was, at the time, one of the most successful franchises in the league. For what it’s worth, Shockey was who he was, if nothing else.

Slipping through the cracks?

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Here’s a question I get all the time: how do players slip through the cracks? How do players go undrafted, then wind up having Pro Bowl careers? Priest Holmes, Kurt Warner, James Harrison, Tony Romo, Arian Foster, Wes Welker and Antonio Gates are among players who, despite advanced modern evaluation, extensive media coverage and teams of evaluators scouring the country 11 months out of the year, were not drafted but went on to stardom in the league.

I asked former Jets scout Joe Bommarito this question. He had an interesting answer.

“Nobody slips through,” he said. “This is a misconception. No player is overlooked, not because of his school, or record, or position, or any other consideration. Scouts evaluate every eligible player for the draft on school visits. No rock is left unturned. Whether a player has a first-round grade or a free-agent grade on him, that is what he has earned throughout his collegiate career. There have been first-round players who have not lived up to it, and free-agent players who have excelled. It doesn’t mean they have been overlooked, it just means that is the grade they have earned in their collegiate career.”

I respect Joe’s opinion but I’m not sure I agree, for several reasons.

  • I think there are biases that, at the very least, affect the grades players are given. For example, players from losing teams are often seen as less enticing by scouts.
  • Some teams give more weight to the preseason grades National and BLESTO give players, and when schools in remote places don’t have players with draftable grades, at times they’re skipped altogether.
  • There are players that come from out-of-the-way places that just don’t get the same exposure as players at schools in BCS conferences, for example.
  • There are also players like Matt Cassel, who was a backup at USC for Carson Palmer. Though he was drafted in the seventh round in 2005, 25 picks before the end, obviously he was far more talented than the ‘grade’ he received in college. His ‘grade’ was affected by his low usage due to sitting behind a Heisman winner.
  • There are also several schools that give limited access to their players — Penn State was like this under Joe Paterno — or whose coaches have no idea how the draft process and evaluation really work (and yes, there are many coaches who don’t know or don’t care, even today).