Looking for Comps in the 2025 NFL Draft? Look Back 10 Years

04 Friday Apr 2025

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So I’ve been looking pretty hard at the 2016 NFL Draft lately — more on that later — and it’s striking how closely it resembles this year’s draft class, especially on Day 1.

First of all, there were two QBs (Cal’s Jared Goff and North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz) who were far and away the top prospects in the draft. Second, pretty much everyone agreed on RB1, Ohio State’s Zeke Elliott. Third, there were five offensive tackles drafted in the first round, with two of them top-10 picks (Notre Dame’s Ronnie Stanley and Michigan State’s Jack Conklin); most mock drafts have 4-5 tackles going on Day 1 this year. Fourth, there will be 3-4 wide receivers who fit into the back half of the round, as Baylor’s Corey Coleman (1/15), Notre Dame’s Will Fuller (1/21), TCU’s Josh Doctson (1/22) and Ole Miss’ LaQuon Treadwell (1/23) did 10 years ago.

If the “model” holds, Miami’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders will be good but not great passers with a lengthy career; Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty will be dominant for 5-6 years before a steady descent; Missouri’s Armand Membou and LSU’s Will Campbell will be steady professionals for a decade; and Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan, Texas’ Matthew Golden, Missouri’s Luther Burden and Ohio State’s Emeka Egbuka will disappoint.

A few other things to look for if this turns out to be a replay of 2016:

  • There won’t be many quarterbacks drafted. In 2016, there were 72. That’s the second-lowest total in the last 10 years if you throw out the 2021 draft, which was an anomaly due to Covid anyway.
  • One of the down-the-line QBs will threaten Ward and Sanders to be the best in class, just like Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott did (he went 4/135 to Dallas). Could the ninth QB drafted this year — which projects to be someone like Syracuse’s Kyle McCord, Ohio State’s Will Howard, Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel or Minnesota’s Max Brosmer — turn out to equal, or even surpass, Ward and/or Sanders?
  • There will be a handful of non-combine invitees who have impressive careers. Middle Tennessee FS Kevin Byard (3/64, Titans), Manitoba’s DT David Onyemata (4/120, Saints), WO Tyreek Hill (5/165, Chiefs) are all still plugging away as they enter 10 years in the league despite getting snubbed in Indianapolis.
  • There will be serious value on the defensive line on Day 3. Entering a decade after the 2016 season, there are four fourth-rounders (the Steelers’ Dean Lowry, Commanders’ Sheldon Day, Bears’ Andrew Billings and Onyemata) and two fifth-rounders (the Bills’ Quinton Jefferson and Lions’ David Reader) who are still on NFL rosters. That’s not common.

Incidentally, there were a lot more interesting facts about 2016 that bear greater consideration. The battle for the top of the draft that pitted Goff and Wentz; the missed opportunity that Alabama’s Derrick Henry and Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott represented to so many teams; receivers like Ohio State’s Michael Thomas, Texas Tech’s Jakeem Grant and Hill who were overlooked for a variety of reasons; and, of course, the unforgettable draft-day story of Ole Miss’ Laremy Tunsil. I’ll be going in-depth on the draft backstories of all eight in my next book, Value Picks: The Drama, Decisions & Details Behind Eight Selections in the 2016 NFL Draft.

It’s coming to Amazon in less than two weeks, and it’s gonna be big, I promise. Keep it on your radar.

A Look Back at How The Pundits Viewed the ’23 and ’24 Drafts

28 Friday Mar 2025

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Wow. We’re a month out from the 2025 NFL Draft already. Around here, that means we do our annual sweep of seven top mock draft services to see who’s rising and falling. It’s an interesting snapshot of the draft class, even if it’s far from scientific and doesn’t actually represent what the teams are thinking.

But how accurate are the pundits one month out? It’s a question we started asking ourselves, and there’s only one way to find out: by reviewing their work. So here’s a look at what the seven services we review (Pro Football Network, PFF, CBS’ Chris Trapasso, The Draft Scout, ESPN, The Athletic’s Dane Brugler and Walter Football) said about the last two draft classes.

2023 DRAFT

  • Top five predicted picks: CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State; Bryce Young, QB, Alabama; Will Anderson, DE, Alabama; Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida; and Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech.
  • Actual top five picks: Young, Stroud, Anderson, Richardson, then Illinois DC Devon Witherspoon to the Seahawks. Witherspoon’s average draft slot (ADS) was 14.4.
  • Biggest misses: All seven services had Kentucky QB Will Levis going in the first round, with an average draft slot of 7.85. Levis wound up going 2/33 to the Titans. Also, all seven services had Penn State DC Joey Porter Jr. going in the first round (ADS 19.0), but he slid to the first pick of the second round.
  • Other surprises: Texas OH Bijan Robinson went 1/8 to the Falcons despite an ADS of 17.1, though, in fairness, we’ve learned the Falcons often go against the grain. Also, Georgia OB Nolan Smith went 1/30 to the Eagles despite an ADS of 17.5.
  • Kudos: Only Trapasso had Mississippi State DC Emmanuel Forbes going in the first round a month before the draft; he had Forbes at 1/24 (he went 1/16 to the Commanders). Also, only two services (PFF and The Draft Scout’s Matt Miller) had Kansas St. DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah in the first round, and both nailed his draft slot (31). Further hats off to PFF for sticking with the prediction and nailing the pick a week before the draft (Miller had abandoned Anudike-Uzomah as a Day 1 selection by then).

2024 DRAFT

  • Top five predicted picks: USC QB Caleb Williams; LSU QB Jayden Daniels; North Carolina QB Drake Maye; Ohio State WO Marvin Harrison Jr.; and Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy.
  • Actual top five picks: Williams, Daniels, Maye, Harrison and Notre Dame OT Joe Alt.
  • Biggest misses: All 22 players predicted to go in Round 1 actually did, so congratulations are in order. On the other hand, not one service, over the course of seven different mocks lasting from June until the week before the draft, ever identified Florida WO Ricky Pearsall (1/31, 49ers) as a first-rounder. Also worth noting: a week before the draft, no one saw South Carolina WO Xavier Legette (1/32, Panthers) as a first-rounder.
  • Other surprises: Things were a little bumpy for Pro Football Network, which was the only service to leave Texas DT Byron Murphy (1/16, Seahawks) off its first-round mock. Similarly, Walter Football was the only site to overlook Duke OT Graham Barton (1/26, Bucs) and CBS’ Trapasso was the only one who snubbed Oklahoma OT Tyler Guyton (1/29, Cowboys).
  • Kudos: ESPN’s Matt Miller (12) and Walter Football (13) were the only two services that saw Oregon QB Bo Nix (1/12, Broncos) as a Day 1 pick. Miller’s website, The Draft Scout, stuck with the prediction on Nix a week before the draft and nailed it, as did Walter Football (Trapasso had him at 15 a week before the draft; no other services saw him as a Day 1 selection). Also, only Pro Football Network (13) and Brugler (21) had Washington QB Michael Penix as a first-rounder; he went 1/8 to the Falcons.

We’ll take a look at how everyone did a week out from the draft in a few weeks. Obviously, judging draft services based on such a limited sample size does nothing to really gauge who’s best. But it’s fun, right?

For a look at which players all seven services a month before this spring’s draft, make sure to register for the Friday Wrap, which comes out this evening. Do that here.

Here’s My Advice to NFL Scouts Seeking College GM Jobs

21 Friday Mar 2025

Posted by in Getting started, NIL, Scouts, Transfer portal

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It started during all-star season, when a few scouting friends told me to keep them in mind if I heard of any college GM openings. It’s gotten busier lately as friends at two P4 schools asked for recommendations on filling a few openings. The pro-to-college pipeline is roaring, and it’s definitely got people on both sides of the divide talking.

It got me thinking about what kind of advice I’d give an NFL scout seeking to make the transition to college. Here are a few things to think about.

G5 schools are looking to hire people with high school contacts; P4 schools are seeking candidates with NFL ties: This should be fairly obvious. Though the bigger schools want to tout their NFL bona fides in the race to attract portal talent, mid-majors are still trying to develop high school talent. For that reason, it’s going to be harder to land jobs in the smaller conferences. Plan accordingly.

You better be relational: It’s not that scouts don’t want to talk to agents, or that they think they’re better than them or whatever. At the end of the day, however, being a good scout lends itself to independence and self-motivation. However, you’ve got to step outside your comfort zone, regularly, if you want to work in the college space, especially if most of your experience is in pro football.

Connections with agents are a plus: We filled the room with schools at our symposium on the Friday of the NFL Combine. I felt like we put together a good program, but there’s one reason why so many schools were represented. It’s because we had almost every major NIL agency represented there.

Have a decent understanding of the bigger financial picture: I get it. That’s not your problem. But you better understand that big-money hedge funds and deep-pocketed investors are moving into college football as they hope to get a piece of a school’s athletic department before the school makes a move to a major conference or lands a fat broadcast deal. Everything is changing so quickly that you risk professional suicide if you don’t see where things are going.

Don’t try to break the bank: Scout salaries are rising (slightly), but nowhere near the way they’re rising on the college side. I know the headlines promise lucrative salaries instantly, but if I’m an NFL scout who doesn’t have a clear path to GM in the NFL, I’d be willing to take one step back financially to take two forward, given the trends.

Get representation: The trend among scouts is to not seek an agent until you get to the director level. I think it’s wise to get an earlier start these days. It just gives you one more set of ears, and more often than not, these jobs get filled before they are even widely known as being available.

Don’t run away from a background in coaching: We are seeing fewer scouts who’ve been coaches over the past decade-plus. However, if you’re a scout who’s spent time on the field, I think the transition will be easier to the college game, where scouts do a lot more than just evaluating.

Three Emerging Football Trends I Could See

14 Friday Mar 2025

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Between the NFL Combine, my reading of a book called The Price, and conversations with people across college and pro football over the last two weeks, I’ve been doing a lot of thinking.

Here are three ideas that are coalescing in my head these days. I think they all could shift the direction of college and pro football over the next decade. Here goes . . . .

Fundraising, not player evaluation, will be football-playing schools’ highest responsibility: This week, UNLV’s athletic director admitted he hired a head coach without knowing how he’s going to pay him (before walking things back once it set off an Internet firestorm). That’s shocking. We’re seeing lots of GMs being hired lately with backgrounds in NFL scouting, but with donor fatigue at all-time highs, schools better have a plan for raising money.

The NFL will go from a partner of college football to a rival: Will the new enforcement rules begin to limit the money paid out to athletes for name, image and likeness? Will we see more collectives come under the roof of the school, like Colorado and UCF have done? I don’t know, and even if they do, I don’t know if that will curtail spending. Bottom line, college football is becoming more and more professional-looking, and you can’t deny the excellent quality of play. At some point, the dollars have to become limited, don’t they? Ultimately, college football teams don’t really need the NFL. Could college and pro football become contentious with each other? I don’t know. It’s possible.

Scouting will continue to become centralized: This week, the Rams, who were voted winners of the Best Draft Award for their work last April, announced new roles and titles for a dozen scouting staffers. Their new lineup includes six (6!) senior personnel executives — this title wasn’t even being used across the NFL until maybe five years ago — and one (1!) area scout. Does this mean they’re sending out one guy to make school visits in all 50 states? Of course not. However, it’s undeniable that (a) they are doing things differently and (b) they are having great success. We also learned this week that the Jaguars (with a new head coach and GM with Rams roots) will not hold a local pro day at team HQ next month. That’s another departure from most teams, but not the Rams, who never have one. If Jacksonville starts having success, other teams will start copying The Rams Way when it comes to the draft. That’s going to be a significant shift.

There’s a good reason to believe I’m crazy, and maybe none of these ideas will get traction. I really hope I’m wrong — maybe in five years, people will look at this post and laugh — but I fear I’m right. More discussion about the game is in today’s Friday Wrap. Register for it here.

Here’s What I Think I Know About NIL with (Possible) Settlement Approval a Month Away

07 Friday Mar 2025

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As of today, we are exactly a month from the expected (hoped-for?) approval of the House settlement which will determine, once and for all, how schools will proceed with name/image/likeness payments and management for college athletes. The question I’m grappling with is, just how much certainty does it provide?

I spent last Friday in a room with about 300 people who are highly invested in the NIL space — college GMs (P4 and G5), top NIL agents and firms, the wealth managers that represent many of the players, thought leaders and others. My co-host (CJ Cavazos of CJ Recruiting and NIL) and I asked two separate panels of college GMs some tough questions on what’s ahead, and while it was helpful, we only had 90 minutes. We probably could have used at least another 90, but that wasn’t possible. We didn’t record the proceedings, but in case you missed it, here’s a taste of what took place.

As I try to digest everything said and heard last week, there’s still a lot I don’t understand. I’m certainly not an attorney, and frankly, my interests apply only to football. With that said, here’s what I believe to be true regarding what’s going to happen in a month (pending approval April 7 by Judge Claudia Wilken).

  • The limit for revenue-sharing is $20.5 million. This money is independent of collectives and will be spent by the schools themselves.
  • The $20.5 million total represents an estimated 22 percent of what a garden variety football-playing school generates in revenue from its athletics program.
  • The lion’s share of the $20.5 million (77 percent, by most accounts) will go to football players. I’m struggling to find an exact percentage anywhere, but I don’t think anyone would be compelled to hold to that number anyway.
  • Teams have to generate their own $20.5 million; the money is not coming from the House settlement.
  • Even if they don’t have $20.5 million, they must dole out the money in the same ratio that everyone has agreed upon for revenue-sharing, that is, if they are participating in revenue-sharing. They are not obligated to do that. This is just a proposed way of spending the money. Most P4 schools seem willing to hold to that, at least initially, as a hedge against litigation.
  • Football teams will be held to 105-man rosters. These will be the only players allowed to participate in revenue-sharing.
  • Title IX applies to scholarships, but it does not apply to NIL money. Yet. There’s litigation in the pipeline that might change that.
  • Collectives are not governed by any of this. A school’s collective can raise and spend whatever it wants to.
  • There is no governing body that will call balls and strikes. In a perfect world, the NCAA would do this, but it does not appear to have that capability, and no one else does, either. Basically, it’s an honor system, and will rely on peer pressure from other schools to comply.
  • Through a clearinghouse, Deloitte will establish market value for any NIL deal over $600, and if judged to be out of whack, Deloitte will say so. There’s an arbitration process, and a player could lose eligibility if he signs a deal that’s judged to be not fair market value, but this seems ripe for litigation, as well. Furthermore, it seems unclear, at least to me, what compels a player, agent or team to send a completed NIL deal in to the clearinghouse.
  • There is no standard contract for NIL payments to players (akin to the wage scale the NFL has adopted based on accrued seasons, etc.) because there is no collective bargaining agreement. As such, there is no reason a team couldn’t commit all or most of its football allotment to one player, technically (again, the team and player might face punishment from Deloitte/the NCAA, but then again, maybe not). It also means terms of a contract can be ripped up at any time and rewritten if both parties (school and player) agree.
  • Presuming it’s approved by Judge Wilken, this will all become “the law” on July 1, when the 2025-26 academic year begins across the land.

More on these observations and what they all mean are in today’s Friday Wrap, which comes out at 7:30 p.m. EST today. I hope you’ll check it out. Not registered yet? Sign up here.

2025 ITL Symposium: Thoughts from a G5 GM

28 Friday Feb 2025

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This morning, we welcomed 11 Power 4 GMs as panelists for the 2025 Vestible ITL Symposium Presented by Mascot Alliance and Powered by Dropback. Before an audience of about 300 members of the college and pro football community, they provided insights on the industry over a 90-minute period.

However, there was one thing missing — the thoughts of an equivalent member from a school competing in the Group of Five conferences. For that, we enlisted Jose Jefferson, who’s not only the co-founder of the College Gridiron Showcase but also the newly minted GM at Florida International University in Miami.

Here’s what Jose provided earlier this week regarding some of the hot topics in the college football business.

  • What is the role and job description of the college GM?: “I think that varies with every GM role.   Everyone does it differently. I think it is based on your relationship with the head coach.  It involves managing the roster, managing NIL revenue, managing the recruiting process and evaluating the current roster vs incoming players. In short, if your team is good, it is your job to make the team better.  If you are great, it is your job to make the team exceptional. If you are exceptional, it is your job to keep the team exceptional and in front of the curve.”
  • There’s been a trend of NFL scouts moving to executive roles in the college ranks.  Will this continue? “I think as the position evolves, there will be a trend of making college football front offices like NFL front offices. I think there is a learning curve; the evaluation process may differ as most of these players are not developed. There have been several players who are Hall Of Famers who weren’t recruited out of high school or who weren’t three-star prospects. I think if you are organized, flexible, and creative with your process, yes, NFL scouts would be great candidates for GM roles.”
  • Do you see a day when colleges have NFL-style scouting staffs, or will coaches remain as the chief evaluators? “Coaches want to be scouts and scouts want to be coaches (ha ha). In the college game, I feel coaches will still be the main evaluators. Until they create an NFL-style draft, college is all about relationships. Now it is getting less that way as ‘bags’ are being dropped off and things seem more transactional. However, the relationship has to start with who the player will be working with; who he will be mentored by; and who he’s developing with. So yes, I feel coaches are still the front line. It is the GM’s job to take a deeper dive with their selections and make sure a player is a ‘fit’ with the team, the culture, and scheme.” 

For a closer look at today’s event in Indianapolis, make sure to check out the Friday Wrap this week, in which we recap all the award winners from Wednesday and the panelists’ responses this morning. Not registered? Fix that here.

The College GM: Five Big Questions

21 Friday Feb 2025

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In a week, more than 20 college general managers and directors of player personnel, most of them from Power 4 conferences, will convene in Indianapolis for the Vestible ITL Symposium Presented by Mascot Alliance. They won’t be alone, of course: we’ve also got about a dozen major NIL agencies (some NFLPA-certified, some soon to be), 10-12 NFL scouts, and lots of other members of the sports business community on their way to Room 205-206 of the Indiana Convention Center Friday morning.

We’ll be there to network, of course, but also to talk about the issues. As many benefits as the transfer portal and the NIL era have been for college football — and I strongly believe it’s been a net positive — there have also been a lot of negatives and even abuses. That’s what our panelists will be discussing.

The exact panelists and the schools that will be represented will be in today’s Friday Wrap, as well as the symposium registration link if you’d like to join us (but hurry, because we’re almost at capacity). You can register for the Friday Wrap, if you don’t already receive it, here.

So what will be the topics? There won’t be topics as much as there will be questions. My counterpart for this symposium, C.J. Cavazos of CJ Recruiting and NIL, will co-host the event, alternating asking questions to the panelists.

We’ve got a list of 18 questions we’re going to try to get to during the 90 minutes we’ve got scheduled. Here are five of them.

  • What is the role and job description of the modern college GM?: We’re seeing an avalanche of hirings at the GM level, especially in P4 football. Despite this, there seems to be no consensus on what a college GM actually is. Is he primarily an evaluator? More of a capologist? Does he have the authority to hire and fire, to build a roster?
  • Will the trend of NFL scouts and executives moving from the NFL to the college ranks continue?: What are the people who are running college personnel departments looking for? On the college level, coaches more or less function as the team’s scouts (along with several volunteers who are usually students). Will we see the “professionalization” of player evaluation in college football?
  • One of the most common complaints in portal-related matters is tampering, i.e., open recruiting of another team’s players, often in-season, often by coaches on another team. Is there any way to stop this? : This is the one topic that unites coaches and personnel types, especially when it comes to G5 teams that are often picked over by P4 schools.
  • Should there be any restrictions on the number of times a player can transfer?: I know this could be a controversial idea, but how much is enough? Wouldn’t some reasonable standard improve the game? Is stability a dirty word now?
  • What’s the biggest immediate change in the portal if the House settlement is approved in April?: All I’ve heard is that most teams and agents are trying to front-load their agreements signed in December because of the uncertainty of the portal beyond April. Studying the settlement is part of the job for modern college GMs. What have they found?

If these questions intrigue you, you should see the entire list of 18 we’ve come up with. We’ll publish all of them in the Friday Wrap this evening. Make sure to check it out (register here for our newsletter) , and if you’d like to listen in on experts talking about these matters, I hope you’ll join us in a week. The registration link for Friday’s symposium will also be in the Wrap. See you at the convention center.

Which New GM Has the Best Chances of Success Quickly?

14 Friday Feb 2025

Posted by in NFL draft, Scouts

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Your turn to play GM. Given the following, who would you want to be? Mike Borgonzi (Titans), John Spytek (Raiders), Darren Mougey (Jets) or the to-be-named Jacksonville GM? 

TITANS (3-14)

  • Day 1: Tennessee “earned” the top pick.
  • Picks: 8 (a first, a second, two fourths, two fifths, a sixth and a seventh)
  • Head coach: Brian Callahan enters Year 2; it’s hard to judge him, given the hand he’s been dealt.
  • QBs in 2024: Neither Will Levis or Mason Rudolph (who’s a free agent) would be the starter next season in a perfect world.
  • Division: The Texans went two rounds into the playoffs. The Colts barely missed the playoffs, and the Jaguars fired both their head coach and GM. The Texans probably bounce back next season, but the Colts are a question mark unless QB Anthony Richardson takes a big leap forward.

RAIDERS (4-13)

  • Day 1: Las Vegas has the sixth pick.
  • Picks: 10 (a first, a second, two thirds, a fourth, a fifth, three sixths and a seventh)
  • Head coach: Pete Carroll is a youthful 73, and has a history of success.
  • QBs in 2024: None of Gardner Minshew, Desmond Ridder or Aidan O’Donnell were the answer. 
  • Division: Stacked. The Chiefs went to the Super Bowl, and the Chargers (11-6) and Broncos (10-7) both made the playoffs. Plus, all three have QBs who are in their respective primes, or on the rise.

JAGUARS (4-13)

  • Day 1: Jacksonville holds the fifth pick in the draft.
  • Picks: 10 (a first, a second, two thirds, two fourths, a fifth, two sixths and a seventh)
  • Head coach: Liam Coen arrives fresh off his success in Tampa Bay, but the bigger issue is that, with Executive VP of Football Operations Tony Boselli around, the new GM will have to fight to be heard.
  • QB in 2024: Though he finished the season on injured reserve, the team has Trevor Lawrence on an extended deal. He probably hasn’t been the QB everyone thought he would be, but he’s clearly the class of these four teams. 
  • Division: As discussed earlier, the Titans are in turmoil and the Colts are unsettled under center, though the Texans underplayed in 2024 and should be better next season.

JETS (5-12)

  • Day 1: New York holds the seventh pick in the draft. 
  • Picks: Eight (a first, a second, a third, a fourth, two fifths and two sixths, but no seventh)
  • Head coach: Aaron Glenn comes to New York hoping to recreate the magic he was part of in Detroit.
  • QB in 2024: The Jets just cut their starter, Aaron Rodgers. 
  • Division: The Bills are among the best teams in the NFL. However, the Patriots are still a ways away and the Dolphins underachieved in 2024.  

Which one would you choose? Not an easy choice. To me, Spytek has the hardest job given his division. The command situation gives me pause in Jacksonville, despite having Lawrence around. That leaves the Jets and Titans. I think I lean toward the Jets given the promise of Glenn, along with three picks in the top 100 vs. just two for Tennessee. Tough call, though. 

Getting to Know New Jets GM Darren Mougey

06 Thursday Feb 2025

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With pieces on new GMs Mike Borgonzi (Tennessee) and John Spytek (Las Vegas) completed the last two weeks, we turned to Darren Mougey, who’s taken over the same role with the Jets. It was easy to get takes (all of them positive) on Mougey, who’s been aggressively reshaping New York’s front office in his first few weeks on the job.

Here’s what his colleagues said about “Moug” this week:

  • “Really very smart. That’s one thing that really stands out, and he’s a good person. These guys are kinda hard to find sometimes, that have the personality and also a football mind. I knew right off the bat he’d be where he is, because I’ve been around so many GMs. I think he encompasses what you need in a GM. First of all, he’s a good guy to keep things together, he’s fair, he’s a pleasant guy, and he’s all football. Very likeable. He doesn’t say much, he’s kinda on the quite side, but he’s all football and he’ll definitely make the Jets a better program.” 
  • “Moug, as he is known across the League, is highly respected among scouts and coaches. He is an incredible evaluator with many years of experience scouting and playing. He is extremely detail-oriented, efficient and organized, and uses a very thorough process in all of his work. His leadership traits will make him a great GM and he has the personality to click with anyone and everyone. (I) have no doubt that he will be very successful in this next step of his career leading the Jets.”
  • “Always a good day to do a school call with Moug. Really sharp, good evaluator, has strong opinions on players, always positive with school staffs, easy guy to connect with. He’s always willing to help out another scout if they needed anything. Never afraid to roll up his sleeves to get a job done.”
  • “If you know Moug, no one is surprised he got the job. He’s a great person that is detailed and never afraid of the work that needs to get done. But what really separates Moug is he is really good person and he truly loves the game of football.
    Working with him for (almost a decade), you could always trust that the work would get done with Moug, and he is fun to just sit down and talk ball with because he  has the confidence to answer questions but still has a low ego.” 

  • “I would say that he is extremely bright, very smart, and has a good eye for talent. He is (also) very adaptable from the standpoint of being able to relate with different types of people, and I think that stems from just his experience in football and sports and being around just different guys in the locker room. So he’s very relatable. People gravitate towards him. Great personality. I would also say that he’s somebody that I think would be a collaborative type of guy where he would take input from different people and respect that, but yet at the very end of the day would be the guy that would make the decision . . . he does not come across to me as like an authoritarian-type leader where you know it’s his way and not really taking a lot of input. I could just see him being like a guy that would encourage that kind of culture, a collaborative culture . . . I think he’s gonna do really well in the job. I think he’s a guy that’s gonna be decisive when it comes to . . . making decisions. It looks like he and (head coach Aaron Glenn) are putting together a pretty nice coaching staff, a nice mix of young guys and veteran guys, so . . . I think he’s gonna do a really good job in New York. I’m excited for him, for sure.”

Before we go, a fun fact: the 2015 Broncos scouting staff featured Assistant Director of College Scouting Adam Peters, National Scout John Spytek, and Mougey, who was then an area scout covering the Southwest. Within 10 years, all three of them would ascend to the GM chair with NFL teams. 

Want to learn which other teams are “breeding” future GMs? Make sure you’re reading the Friday Wrap, which comes out Fridays (duh) at 7:30 p.m. EST. Register for it here.

Getting to Know New Raiders GM John Spytek

31 Friday Jan 2025

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When a new GM takes over, we try to get a feel for his personality and leadership style by asking those who know him, anonymously, to give us their respective takes. We’ve done that previously this cycle with Tennessee’s Mike Borgonzi, and in previous years with other hires. This week, our focus turns to new Raiders chief John Spytek, and despite perhaps the busiest week of the year when it comes to all-star play, we had several responses.

Before we get started, my own experience with John has been A+. I dealt with him when his Bucs won the 2020 Best Draft Award (the Wirfs/Winfield draft), and it seemed to me like Bucs GM Jason Licht wanted John to handle much of it, mainly because Jason believed in his work. Both Jason and John were professional and humbled, even though we had to work with really weird conditions (that year, the combine was canceled, so it was the only online ITL Seminar we’ve ever conducted). Check it out here, if you’re interested. You’ll hear John discuss the vagaries of having a draft from home, which I think is pretty interesting. 

But that’s enough from me. One source I reached in Mobile said the Raiders made a great choice because he’s “a hands-off manager” who “never micromanages” and “trusts them to do their jobs.” He also truly values what his scouts tell him, my friend told me.

Here are some other comments from people who’ve worked alongside John.

  • “Unique, avant-garde leadership approach. Not a micro manager. Will build through the draft and collect pieces in free agency.”
  • “He’s a very good listener. His door is always open to come in and talk about any concerns you may have. He does a good job stepping back and looking at the big picture. He’s strong in his convictions. He does a good job articulating what he sees.”
  • “John is a really good overall person and you know what you are getting with him each day, as he always has the same positive demeanor. He’s very appreciative and loyal to those around him. A very good evaluator who sees the big picture for players and what roles they can bring.”  

Given the nature of his leadership, based on what we were told about him, we’d expect him to make sure the Raiders staff has plenty of strong evaluators who can do their jobs without a lot of oversight. Generally speaking, that sounds like he’ll value veterans over the youth-is-king trend currently in fashion with a lot of teams. The Raiders did pretty good last April (they narrowly missed being a finalist for the Best Draft Award) and have plenty of holdovers from the previous regime that have lots of seasoning. That gives Spytek a real boost as he takes over and learns his staff. 

For more about front offices, hiring and the NFL offseason, make sure to read the Friday Wrap, which comes out this evening. You can register for it here.